Texas Fall 2021

[TheProfessor]

I'm late to the discussion, but one thing about teleconnections (and I've mentioned this before iirc) is that how they trend is just as important as where it is on the graph. In the midterm the PNA is expected to trend positive, but then that trend becomes more neutral or even slightly negative, which would favor us. A low amplitude negative trend isn't a bad deal for us as long as the AO, EPO, and NAO aren't going in the wrong direction too. It does seem like we could see what Ntxw was mentioning with the cold air sliding east at first and then retrograding westward with time.

how long is the PNA is going to be positive?

PNA is actually negative now and doesn't start trending positive until this week (with this front). From there it just kind of flattens out or trends slightly negative, but that forecast is uncertain.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx highlighting the block in Greenland, thats a solid one too. We need to that. Looks like it would hang around for a while.

As a result of the block, everything has to move south. I know its 12 days out, but you can see what the GFS wants to produce, as a result of the block. Monster storm rolling through the plains. Dont be surprised if it start showing this system fro early Dec dipping into Texas.

[TheProfessor]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

[starsfan65]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

Ice Storm?

[Cpv17]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

Ice Storm?

It’s still really far out. Don’t worry about it yet.

[starsfan65]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

Ice Storm?

It’s still really far out. Don’t worry about it yet.

I'm Not. I am hoping for a cool Thanksgiving.

[TheProfessor]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

Ice Storm?

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

[starsfan65]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

Ice Storm?

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

That is the Day after Thanksgiving. It is expected to be in the 50's on Thanksgiving here.

[TheProfessor]

Ice Storm?

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

That is the Day after Thanksgiving. It is expected to be in the 50's on Thanksgiving here.

For now, yes, but things can change quickly. At 10 days out you could get a forecast error in temperatures by 20+ degrees in either direction pretty easily, especially at this time of year. Right now it's just something to watch and if I had lean a direction I'd say it's something for those of us in Kansas and Oklahoma to pay attention to right now, but I've seen these systems trend south way too often.

[starsfan65]

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

That is the Day after Thanksgiving. It is expected to be in the 50's on Thanksgiving here.

For now, yes, but things can change quickly. At 10 days out you could get a forecast error in temperatures by 20+ degrees in either direction pretty easily, especially at this time of year. Right now it's just something to watch and if I had lean a direction I'd say it's something for those of us in Kansas and Oklahoma to pay attention to right now, but I've seen these systems trend south way too often.

I hope it ain't 20 degrees warmer.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z Euro has a Major Winter Storm Developing across Oklahoma & Northern Texas 10 Days out, it's unlikely it will happen, but if the Euro is jumping on board for this. we really need to keep an eye on this if the Euro is wanting a Southern Plains Winter Storm by Thanksgiving Week.

[starsfan65]

The 12z Euro has a Major Winter Storm Developing across Oklahoma & Northern Texas 10 Days out, it's unlikely it will happen, but if the Euro is jumping on board for this. we really need to keep an eye on this if the Euro is wanting a Southern Plains Winter Storm by Thanksgiving Week.

If I want a Winter Storm, I want a snow storm.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z Euro has a Major Winter Storm Developing across Oklahoma & Northern Texas 10 Days out, it's unlikely it will happen, but if the Euro is jumping on board for this. we really need to keep an eye on this if the Euro is wanting a Southern Plains Winter Storm by Thanksgiving Week.

If I want a Winter Storm, I want a snow storm.

Look at this! It's a shame when the fun begins at the end of the model run.


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

[starsfan65]

The 12z Euro has a Major Winter Storm Developing across Oklahoma & Northern Texas 10 Days out, it's unlikely it will happen, but if the Euro is jumping on board for this. we really need to keep an eye on this if the Euro is wanting a Southern Plains Winter Storm by Thanksgiving Week.

If I want a Winter Storm, I want a snow storm.

Look at this! It's a shame when the fun begins at the end of the model run.

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

The 0z Euro run is out in over 2 hours.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has a Major Winter Storm Developing across Oklahoma & Northern Texas 10 Days out, it's unlikely it will happen, but if the Euro is jumping on board for this. we really need to keep an eye on this if the Euro is wanting a Southern Plains Winter Storm by Thanksgiving Week.

If I want a Winter Storm, I want a snow storm.

Look at this! It's a shame when the fun begins at the end of the model run.

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

That looks about like what the GFS was showing a few runs back.

[Iceresistance]

The NAO is about as Negative as it can get!


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

[Cerlin]

The setup showing up at day 10 screams ice storm to me. You get a cutoff low in the Southwest with shallow cold air and a Gulf that for the most part is still above average and that's a recipe for disaster. I have no idea where the wintry precip would be, but if that setup does indeed occur with some cold air to work with I think someone will be dealing with ice. I could get lucky here being further north and get snow (or be unlucky and too far north), but I do think overall this is more of an ice setup.

Models tend to be to progressive with these cutoff lows, it wouldn't surprise me if we see this get pushed back some (in fact that's already happened on the GFS) and the progression of the cutoff low is slowed. As always when dealing with shallow cold air, it will likely arrive much faster than anticipated, so you usually need to shift the winter precip modes a county or two south of what the models are showing once you get to that 1 to 3 day range (with the exception of the CAMs which have gotten much better in modeling the speed of the cold air.).

Ice Storm?

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

Canadian model agrees with you so far! 2 runs in a row with a pretty substantial ice storm across the Southern Plains.

[Iceresistance]

Ice Storm?

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

Canadian model agrees with you so far! 2 runs in a row with a pretty substantial ice storm across the Southern Plains.

It's trended further east as well.

[starsfan65]

If this setup were to occur it would most likely be an ice storm as opposed to a snow event. But as Cpv said it's 10 days out and we'll likely see it change a ton until we get into the medium range.

Canadian model agrees with you so far! 2 runs in a row with a pretty substantial ice storm across the Southern Plains.

It's trended further east as well.

On the Euro, There is a system coming through Thanksgiving Morning.

[TropicalTundra]

I know not many people use the GDPS but the end of the run shows sleet/ice around east of I-35. The signal is there and if it continues signaling we could be looking at some wintry fun. If the blocking continues and cold pushes farther south we could maybe see some ice or snow events during thanksgiving week. We just need the Greenland block to do it’s wonder and everything will be set for some wintry mischief.