Texas Fall 2021

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#261 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:28 pm

First watch went up a couple of hours ago, expect to see the rest of Oklahoma and Texas fill in over the evening.

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#262 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:31 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#263 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:50 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#264 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:51 pm

70 - 80+ mph wind gust being reported with this line moving through DFW..
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#265 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:37 am

2.3 Inches from the Rain Gauge, but it's likely between 2.5 & 2.75 inches since most of the rain was windblown
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#266 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:18 am

Typical squall line, nothing too crazy IMBY. But, nice to see rain and thunder again. Edit to add: looked a models and still looking good for heavy rain this week in DFW. Just hope Pamela doesn't decide to go a different route. We are in dire need up here.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#267 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:59 am

Now eyes on the EPAC. Pamela's remnants will track Northeastward across Texas. 3-5 inches in its path easily.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#268 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:28 am

Got 1.9" at the airport here. A nice over achiever
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#269 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:29 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Typical squall line, nothing too crazy IMBY. But, nice to see rain and thunder again. Edit to add: looked a models and still looking good for heavy rain this week in DFW. Just hope Pamela doesn't decide to go a different route. We are in dire need up here.


It was a nice line of storms - doesn't appear to have caused much in the way of damage, didn't spit an outflow and collapse as it moved into DFW, provided a really nice long light show as it approached, widespread rain, cleared out quickly and left us a really nice day today.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#270 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:30 am

Ntxw wrote:Now eyes on the EPAC. Pamela's remnants will track Northeastward across Texas. 3-5 inches in its path easily.


Yep, enjoy the nice weather today b/c it's going to be a wet week. Looks like Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the main event.

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#271 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:36 am

Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#272 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:39 am

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#273 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:44 am

Looking out into the longer range, ensembles are in pretty good agreement that ridging will be focused up north over Canada with a West Coast trough. That should deliver seasonable temps for most of Texas with the periodic chances of rain as individual disturbances kick out from the mean trough and slide under the ridge.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#274 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:45 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.


It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#275 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:57 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.


Severe weather, in terms of tornado outbreaks, imo can be even tougher to forecast than cold blast and winter storms. In reality only a small percentage of folks are ever really directly effected even in the largest outbreaks. We have more tools available now to a broader public so model output can sometimes produce WOW factors for certain parameters but they are still only models and it takes a lot to get the right ingredients together at the right time.

SPC and NWS did a good job and even weather models for this round. There was a large region that went severe, noted with isolated tornadoes embedded within these lines. The area put under moderate in Oklahoma yielded a few good storms that did produce tornadoes. It's all about interpretation and context. Just because a model has an amazing graph or chart showing the atmosphere with explosive potential, but it's just that, potential. You need good timing and the right kind of storms to produce.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#276 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:03 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.


It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#277 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:01 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.


It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013

But 2013 was a very notable one, & of course I forget 2019 :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#278 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:18 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.


It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013


Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#279 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:32 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013


Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.

It has probably cycled downward, it's going to ramp back up again, but when is the question

Winter became generally milder after 2010-2011 Winter, but after that, I knew that Winter was going to wake up soon, but when was the question. The 2020-2021 Winter showed that pattern.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#280 Postby Patriot12 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.


It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?


Huh?
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