STORM2K

The trend has definitely been more progressive with a later eject with the first trough for the end of the weekend. Euro and CMC have trended more towards the GFS in that regard. GFS has done pretty well this year so I would probably lean with the GFS for Tuesday/Wednesday, which right now has the most significant severe weather threat of the global models right now.

The timing of the EPAC storm will be big as well. If that moisture gets pulled up north ahead of the early-midweek trough be ready for not just heavy rain, but the potential for higher CAPE due to models underestimating surface dewpoints. The GFS starts tapping into that EPAC moisture Tuesday afternoon, however it doesn't really get cranking until late Wednesday when the best severe parameters are gone, so timing of that will be crucial.

If the latest 3km NAM is onto something, I can see the enhanced risk expanding to include dfw. >3000 cape and >300 srh just ahead of the line is going to make for solid spin up threat for any embedded supercells.

It does look like once the remnants of Pamela-to-be (now looking like the prime landfall area of MX that usually promotes substantial rainfall for us) temps will step down to what Fall should be like and stay.

NAM 3km’s precip depiction south of the red river seems underdone. With an uncapped environment like that I would imagine the line would zipper down to at least Stephenville

cheezyWXguy wrote:NAM 3km’s precip depiction south of the red river seems underdone. With an uncapped environment like that I would imagine the line would zipper down to at least Stephenville

NAM soundings show a cap in place, esp. west of I35. However, the atmosphere looks primed for svr wx and the precipitation pattern looks like the primary storm mode will be semidiscrete cells vs. a MCS. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ENH get dropped down to cover most of DFW but I also wouldn't be surprised to see it stay about the same, since the SPC hugs the HREF.

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:NAM 3km’s precip depiction south of the red river seems underdone. With an uncapped environment like that I would imagine the line would zipper down to at least Stephenville

NAM soundings show a cap in place, esp. west of I35. However, the atmosphere looks primed for svr wx and the precipitation pattern looks like the primary storm mode will be semidiscrete cells vs. a MCS. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ENH get dropped down to cover most of DFW but I also wouldn't be surprised to see it stay about the same, since the SPC hugs the HREF.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

Based on the soundings in the 12z run, the cap is virtually gone (<5 j/kg) by midnight east of the boundary, until you get down to near Goldthwaite. With those conditions I would expect a look similar to the 12z HRRR. The ARWs and the hi res FV3 are much more enthusiastic about the southern extent of the line as well.

Enhanced risk now includes DFW

Soundings look pretty nasty across N. Texas for this evening with a smaller cap than they were showing at 12z yesterday. SPC might need to drop that MOD down south later in the day, if this model trend holds.

ETA - Just noticed the tornado hatch is already covering a good portion of N. Texas.

Delkus/WFAA thinking it will be an organized line of t-storms when it comes through tonight with wind being the primary threat. Already very overcast this morning.

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1447187677846048773

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1447192036092915715

Considering both the HRRR and NAM have SRH values over 300 in the lowest 1km, I bet that enhanced tor probs will get expanded south into the metro. Any embedded supercells headed toward dfw are going to have me sweating a bit with an environment like this

cheezyWXguy wrote:Considering both the HRRR and NAM have SRH values over 300 in the lowest 1km, I bet that enhanced tor probs will get expanded south into the metro. Any embedded supercells headed toward dfw are going to have me sweating a bit with an environment like this

The 12z HREF will probably cause SPC to bump the MOD south of the Red River, not sure if it supports moving it as far south as DFW.

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:Considering both the HRRR and NAM have SRH values over 300 in the lowest 1km, I bet that enhanced tor probs will get expanded south into the metro. Any embedded supercells headed toward dfw are going to have me sweating a bit with an environment like this

The 12z HREF will probably cause SPC to bump the MOD south of the Red River, not sure if it supports moving it as far south as DFW.

Does that also mean a chance for a High Risk in Central Oklahoma with the Moderate Risk more broader?

DFW should at least get Moderate Risk for airborne Halloween inflatables and outdoor decor.

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:Considering both the HRRR and NAM have SRH values over 300 in the lowest 1km, I bet that enhanced tor probs will get expanded south into the metro. Any embedded supercells headed toward dfw are going to have me sweating a bit with an environment like this

The 12z HREF will probably cause SPC to bump the MOD south of the Red River, not sure if it supports moving it as far south as DFW.

Agreed, given how close to parallel the surface inflow is to the orientation of the boundary, I don’t think the setup is enough to get mdt tor probs south of the first set of red river counties. Enhanced probs are likely the highest dfw can get since we won’t be tapping into the open warm sector east of the front like up north.

Iceresistance wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:Considering both the HRRR and NAM have SRH values over 300 in the lowest 1km, I bet that enhanced tor probs will get expanded south into the metro. Any embedded supercells headed toward dfw are going to have me sweating a bit with an environment like this

The 12z HREF will probably cause SPC to bump the MOD south of the Red River, not sure if it supports moving it as far south as DFW.

Does that also mean a chance for a High Risk in Central Oklahoma with the Moderate Risk more broader?

I strongly doubt it. A full fledged outbreak would have to be written on the wall to get an upgrade to high and I just don’t see it.

Also: anybody know the track record of the hi-res FV3? Soundings in dfw ahead of the line show surface winds backed out of the SSE, instead of the S like on the other mesoscale models. If the other models were to follow suit I could see higher tor probs in the area than enhanced.

funster wrote:DFW should at least get Moderate Risk for airborne Halloween inflatables and outdoor decor.

My neighbor's motion-activated cackling witch Halloween decoration flew into the top of a damaged tree during the October tornado that hit my street two years ago. It cackled with every light breeze during cleanup for weeks until the batteries ran out

Thinking SW to Central Oklahoma for the super-cellular before linear mode. As for us, skinny fast moving line coming through later.

Can't wait for the real FALL feel later this week! Next weekend will be gorgeous.

Heavy rain Tues-Thurs from Pamela, it's gonna be muggy with the surge of tropical feed.

18z 3k NAM has a nasty line of storms with some strong rotating updrafts for DFW.

Ntxw wrote:Thinking SW to Central Oklahoma for the super-cellular before linear mode. As for us, skinny fast moving line coming through later.

Can't wait for the real FALL feel later this week! Next weekend will be gorgeous.

Heavy rain Tues-Thurs from Pamela, it's gonna be muggy with the surge of tropical feed.

https://i.imgur.com/k241vrz.gif

67 for a high on Friday I absolutely cannot wait