STORM2K

First watch went up a couple of hours ago, expect to see the rest of Oklahoma and Texas fill in over the evening.

70 - 80+ mph wind gust being reported with this line moving through DFW..

2.3 Inches from the Rain Gauge, but it's likely between 2.5 & 2.75 inches since most of the rain was windblown

Typical squall line, nothing too crazy IMBY. But, nice to see rain and thunder again. Edit to add: looked a models and still looking good for heavy rain this week in DFW. Just hope Pamela doesn't decide to go a different route. We are in dire need up here.

Now eyes on the EPAC. Pamela's remnants will track Northeastward across Texas. 3-5 inches in its path easily.

Got 1.9" at the airport here. A nice over achiever

rwfromkansas wrote:Typical squall line, nothing too crazy IMBY. But, nice to see rain and thunder again. Edit to add: looked a models and still looking good for heavy rain this week in DFW. Just hope Pamela doesn't decide to go a different route. We are in dire need up here.

It was a nice line of storms - doesn't appear to have caused much in the way of damage, didn't spit an outflow and collapse as it moved into DFW, provided a really nice long light show as it approached, widespread rain, cleared out quickly and left us a really nice day today.

Ntxw wrote:Now eyes on the EPAC. Pamela's remnants will track Northeastward across Texas. 3-5 inches in its path easily.

Yep, enjoy the nice weather today b/c it's going to be a wet week. Looks like Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the main event.

Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.

Looking out into the longer range, ensembles are in pretty good agreement that ridging will be focused up north over Canada with a West Coast trough. That should deliver seasonable temps for most of Texas with the periodic chances of rain as individual disturbances kick out from the mean trough and slide under the ridge.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.

It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.

Severe weather, in terms of tornado outbreaks, imo can be even tougher to forecast than cold blast and winter storms. In reality only a small percentage of folks are ever really directly effected even in the largest outbreaks. We have more tools available now to a broader public so model output can sometimes produce WOW factors for certain parameters but they are still only models and it takes a lot to get the right ingredients together at the right time.

SPC and NWS did a good job and even weather models for this round. There was a large region that went severe, noted with isolated tornadoes embedded within these lines. The area put under moderate in Oklahoma yielded a few good storms that did produce tornadoes. It's all about interpretation and context. Just because a model has an amazing graph or chart showing the atmosphere with explosive potential, but it's just that, potential. You need good timing and the right kind of storms to produce.

Iceresistance wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.

It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.

It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013

But 2013 was a very notable one, & of course I forget 2019

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.

It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013

Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.

Cpv17 wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:
It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

It's panned out many times since 2013

Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.

It has probably cycled downward, it's going to ramp back up again, but when is the question

Winter became generally milder after 2010-2011 Winter, but after that, I knew that Winter was going to wake up soon, but when was the question. The 2020-2021 Winter showed that pattern.

Iceresistance wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the severe weather threats the past few years not really panned out?

Its not just you. I agree with you.

It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

Huh?