STORM2K

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.

The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.

Cold in Alaska means above-normal temps in Texas (at least, no major cold here). I hope it stays very cold in Alaska all winter. I get concerned when Alaska warms up.

Ntxw wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.

The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.

Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:New latest first snow for folks in Denver. You're welcome.

I think 1" of snow needs to be recorded for things to become official. It snowed the other day for about an hour, moderately, but wasnt enough to register. Next 10 days dont look good.

The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.

Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.

Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around

18z GFS is looking really nasty to start December for basically the Southern Plains, especially Oklahoma, the Snow line at +312 Hours is literally along I-44 from Missouri to Lawton, OK.


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png

Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS



https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

Iceresistance wrote:Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Well, only time will tell if that's the case . . .

I do want to mention that the GFS is showing strong consistency for the December Cold wave

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Hah, not even December yet and you’re already this exasperated? I’ll be sure to send you a care package come January

cheezyWXguy wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Hah, not even December yet and you’re already this exasperated? I’ll be sure to send you a care package come January

More like February

Brent wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
The models consistently have underestimated the +EPO in the 7-10+ day range. On an island, all else not considered, this is not a good sign. But also not surprising since there's been some terrible 2nd near Ninas with ++EPO, and the GOA cold region is reinforcing it.

It's brutally cold in Alaska and the last major cold winter they had was 2011-2012.

Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.

Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around

Every year is going to be slightly different but yeah second Ninas do have their risks. The problem is that very cold water south of Alaska is a driving force. Models try to prop up the EPO ridge but eventually they have to correct since colder waters there favor lower heights. The reverse happened when there was an anomalous warm pool there in 2013-2014.

To defeat this feature we need a good PNA alongside a strong -WPO, also a west based -NAO.

Current




There is a mix here for backend continuing Ninas.

Comparison to last year for reference. South of Alaska was completely different.

cheezyWXguy wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Kuchera Ratio Snowfall on the 18z GFS


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc.png

Another storm 300 hours out is anything ever going to get inside a week

Hah, not even December yet and you’re already this exasperated? I’ll be sure to send you a care package come January

Lol i'm exaggerating a bit but I'm still I guess remembering how we thought Thanksgiving would be interesting lol

It is still early though thats for sure

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Yes 2011-2012 was a horrible winter, while Dec 2011 was pretty much average temp wise it was a wetter than average Dec with 4"+ of rain. January was awful, we were much above average then February was just a little above average but we did get a few snow flurries. March was pretty much like May We cancaled that Winter and moved on to Spring Storm season.

Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around

Every year is going to be slightly different but yeah second Ninas do have their risks. The problem is that very cold water south of Alaska is a driving force. Models try to prop up the EPO ridge but eventually they have to correct since colder waters there favor lower heights. The reverse happened when there was an anomalous warm pool there in 2013-2014.

To defeat this feature we need a good PNA alongside a strong -WPO, also a west based -NAO.

Current

https://i.imgur.com/OXVOgNu.png


There is a mix here for backend continuing Ninas.

https://i.imgur.com/mojEWee.png

https://i.imgur.com/NUD2rgw.png

https://i.imgur.com/aMaJW9A.png

https://i.imgur.com/Cre8THN.png

Does this mean that it's going to be harder to get Winter Weather for this area?

Iceresistance wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:
Yeah 11-12 is worst case scenario and it keeps hanging around

Every year is going to be slightly different but yeah second Ninas do have their risks. The problem is that very cold water south of Alaska is a driving force. Models try to prop up the EPO ridge but eventually they have to correct since colder waters there favor lower heights. The reverse happened when there was an anomalous warm pool there in 2013-2014.

To defeat this feature we need a good PNA alongside a strong -WPO, also a west based -NAO.

Current

https://i.imgur.com/OXVOgNu.png


There is a mix here for backend continuing Ninas.

https://i.imgur.com/mojEWee.png

https://i.imgur.com/NUD2rgw.png

https://i.imgur.com/aMaJW9A.png

https://i.imgur.com/Cre8THN.png

Does this mean that it's going to be harder to get Winter Weather for this area?

Not sure yet. But even in 2011 west Texas cashed out. There is no doubt in any Nina a large pool of cold will generate in the white north. That's about guaranteed. The big question is can you buckle that zonal flow from the Pacific to allow it to move south, it just takes one or two good timing of the jet, just less likely with it being so strong. If anything the coldest periods in these second string Nina is about late December to early January. IF the pattern can break then you flood with a lot of cold air for a period.

As far as moisture the next 6-12 months it is now clear as day dry periods will outnumber the wet times. And when it does rain it tends to underperform due to the big -PDO.

I did not see the 12z Euro until now, faster than the 18z GFS & is about on par with the 12z GFS except on an Oklahoma scale, literally!


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

We lived in Midland in 2011. I see photos of a big snow in early December that year in my phone.

The 12z GFS has a big storm within 300 hours.

ETA: 2 of them within 336 hours (2 Weeks)

18z GFS clearly shows a +PNA when the Cold Air comes in Early December

Ntx and wxman are very right about the cold water near alaska. If there is a low sitting over the top of Alaska, does not bode well for the southern plains or for -EPO. I think an Oshtok low (sp?), which hangs just west of Alaska is a good/better sign for us and the EPO. Something to look for.

Meanwhile, here in Denver, next 7 days we will have temps around 65 for high. 16-18 degrees above normal.