STORM2K

On to the best weather season of the year!

Is it going to be warm next week?

starsfan65 wrote:Is it going to be warm next week?

Yes.

All quiet in here

starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here

We're about to move into the most fun section of the year!

starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here

There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here

There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.

I hope you are right

starsfan65 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here

There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.

I hope you are right

I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.

I hope you are right

I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.

My confidence level is 7 out of 10.

starsfan65 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:I hope you are right

I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.

My confidence level is 7 out of 10.

I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.

My confidence level is 7 out of 10.

I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.

Greenland Block is also the key.

starsfan65 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:My confidence level is 7 out of 10.

I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.

Greenland Block is also the key.

Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).

Until the Aleutian ridge breaks down or becomes poleward, we still got a ways to go on cold weather here. The 12zgfs has a 1096mb high over Greenland 234hr btw.

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.

Greenland Block is also the key.

Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).

I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:Greenland Block is also the key.

Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).

I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.

Itryatgolf wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).

I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.

Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

Itryatgolf wrote:Until the Aleutian ridge breaks down or becomes poleward, we still got a ways to go on cold weather here. The 12zgfs has a 1096mb high over Greenland 234hr btw.

Good lord! How is that even possible!? Lol

Ntxw wrote:

Itryatgolf wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.

Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

Not just that, the snowfall cover is the highest since the 1960s! Quite the change compared to last year. Literally!
https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

Ntxw wrote:

Itryatgolf wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.

Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

The models don't look all that cold here. Perhaps that will change? We shall see

Iceresistance wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Itryatgolf wrote:So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.

Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

Not just that, the snowfall cover is the highest since the 1960s! Quite the change compared to last year. Literally!
https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

Pacific needs a little shifting before it gets cold here. Hopefully it happens to an extent