Texas Fall 2023

[tajmahal]

Largest one–day snowfalls on record (all of these are ThreadEx sites with the climate record start date in parentheses):

..9.8...Abilene, Texas Area on 2/14/2021 (11/1885)
19.0...Amarillo Area on 2/25/2013 (11/1892)
..6.5...Austin Area on 1/30/1949 (12/1898)
..6.1...Austin Bergstrom Airport Area on 2/15/2021 (1/1949)
..3.5...Beaumont–Port Arthur Area on 2/12/1960 (11/1901)
16.0...Borger, Texas Area on 2/25/2013 (2/1949)
..1.0...Brownsville Area on 12/25/2004 (12/1898)
13.0...Childress, Texas Area on 1/2/1943 (2/1893)
..6.0...College Station Area on 1/30/1949 (3/1893)
..2.3...Corpus Christi Area on 12/24/2004 (1/1948)
..7.8...Dallas Area on 2/11/2010 (10/1913)
11.2...Dallas–Fort Worth Area on 2/11/2010 (1/1940)
11.2...Del Rio Area on 2/18/2021 (1/1915)
14.5...El Paso Area on 12/13/1987 (1/1879)
14.0...Galveston Area on 2/14/1895 (4/1871)
..3.0...Houston Area on 2/12/1960 & 1/22/1940 (2/1921)
..4.0...Laredo Area on 1/20/1940 (11/1902)
..9.1...Lawton Area on 2/19/1921 (12/1912)
12.0...Longview Area on 12/22/1929 (1/1902)
12.1...Lubbock Area on 2/20/1961 (1/1911)
..0.3...McAllen Area on 12/8/2017 (6/1941)
10.6...Midland–Odessa Area on 1/9/2012 (2/1933)
13.5...Oklahoma City Area on 12/24/2009 (1/1893)
10.1...San Angelo Area on 2/14/2021 (11/1907)
13.2...San Antonio Area on 1/12/1985 (2/1895)
13.0...Stillwater Area on 3/9/1994 (1/1893)
13.2...Tulsa Area on 2/1/2011 (8/1893)
12.0...Tyler Area on 12/21/1929 (2/1895)
10.0...Victoria, Texas Area on 12/24/2004 (12/1946)
..7.0...Waco Area on 1/30/1949 (3/1940)
..9.8...Wichita Falls Area on 1/18/1925 (1/1897)

Largest one–day snowfalls on record (none of these are ThreadEx sites):

22.0...Arnett 3NE, Oklahoma on 3/28/2009
22.0...Beaver, Oklahoma on 12/19/1911
24.5...Bon Wier, Texas on 5/12/1943
23.0...Buffalo 2SSW, Oklahoma on 2/21/1971
24.0...Chisos Basin, Texas on 12/31/2020
24.0...Clifton 10E, Texas on 12/21/1929
20.0...Darrouzett, Texas on 2/22/1971
25.0...Follett, Texas on 3/28/2009
22.0...Fort Supply 3ESE, Oklahoma on 3/28/2009
26.0...Freedom, Oklahoma on 3/28/2009
21.0...Gate, Oklahoma on 11/25/1992
36.0...Mineral Wells, Wolters AFB on 11/28/1969
20.0...Pampa #2, Texas on 3/24/1987
20.0...Plains, Texas on 2/21/1961
24.0...Plainview, Texas on 2/4/1956
22.0...Romero, Texas on 4/10/1919
22.0...Turpin 4SSE, Oklahoma on 3/27/2009
25.0...Upper Spavinaw Port, Oklahoma on 2/10/2011
26.0...Woodward, Oklahoma on 3/28/2009

21 Texas weather reporting stations were operating on both January 1, 1895, and September 30, 2022. For these stations, their largest one–day snowfalls on record occurred during the following 15 storms:

3...02/13–14/1895
2...02/14–15/2021
2...01/30/1949
2...01/23–24/1926
2...01/16–17/1919
1...02/25/2013
1...12/13/1987
1...02/09/1973
1...02/23/1966
1...02/21/1961
1...01/02/1943
1...12/21/1929
1...01/19/1925
1...12/19/1911
1...01/27/1895

Eight Oklahoma weather reporting stations were operating on both February 1, 1895, and September 30, 2022. For these stations, their largest one–day snowfalls on record occurred during the following 8 storms:

02/26/2013
12/25/2009
03/09/1994
02/02/1982
02/07/1929
02/18/1921
12/23/1918
01/17/1893

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[Cpv17]

Could be some severe weather to end November, in Houston of all places.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRVDb.gif
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRVDb.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Weird. Usually southeast Texas doesn’t get much severe weather but big severe weather events have definitely happened this time of the year before down here.

[HockeyTx82]

Could be some severe weather to end November, in Houston of all places.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRVDb.gif
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRVDb.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Weird. Usually southeast Texas doesn’t get much severe weather but big severe weather events have definitely happened this time of the year before down here.

According to the National Weather Service, severe weather events include tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, flash floods, and winter storms¹. Based on the web search results, I found the following information about the number of severe weather events that occurred in the month of November and December in Southeast Texas over the past 30 years:

- [November Severe Weather Events](^3^) for Southeast Texas lists 18 events from 1991 to 2020, including tornadoes, hail, wind damage, and flooding.
- [December Severe Weather Events] for Southeast Texas lists 14 events from 1991 to 2020, including tornadoes, hail, wind damage, and snow.
- [Storm Data](^1^) for Southeast Texas provides monthly reports of severe weather events from 2011 to 2023. I counted 9 events in November and 7 events in December from 2021 to 2023, excluding the events that were already listed in the previous sources.

Therefore, the total number of severe weather events that occurred in the month of November and December in Southeast Texas over the past 30 years is:

$$18 + 14 + 9 + 7 = 48$$

I hope this answers your question.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 11/27/2023
(1) Storm Data - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/hgx/stormdata.
(2) November Severe Weather Events. https://www.weather.gov/hgx/severe_events_november.
(3) Storm Data - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/hgx/stormdata.
(4) Several tornadoes reported as dangerous storms fire up, threatening 20 .... https://www.aol.com/20-million-texas-so ... 20997.html.
(5) Past Weather Events - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/shv/past_events.

[Ntxw]

Guidance at 500mb hinting at a dynamic system around the 4th.

[gpsnowman]

Guidance at 500mb hinting at a dynamic system around the 4th.

Good to hear. Any cold to work with on the models? Either way we need some rain at least.

[Stratton23]

Really not much cold air with that system, but. i do think it will provide a good chance for rain for many folks

[Ntxw]

Guidance at 500mb hinting at a dynamic system around the 4th.

Good to hear. Any cold to work with on the models? Either way we need some rain at least.

At the moment no. But it does have some cold air a loft. 40s at the surface. With -NAO and -AO we can always trend deeper and drag what cold there is. This is what we will be looking for this winter with el nino, these kind of set ups and enough of them one will hit.

[Edwards Limestone]

This board is becoming a beating to read these days. I find myself coming here less and less.

[Stratton23]

Strong ridging over alaska showing up on the 18z GFS at the end of its run, cold air building in NW canada, could have an impact later down the road after the 10th of december

[WacoWx]

This board is becoming a beating to read these days. I find myself coming here less and less.

I think that would be a great idea.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS shifted towards a wetter pattern for Texas in the longer range. The 18z GFS says, "Oh yeah, me too!"

[Edwards Limestone]

This board is becoming a beating to read these days. I find myself coming here less and less.

I think that would be a great idea.

?

[Stratton23]

The 18z GEFS has actually a minor snow signal for parts of central and north texas at hour 192, id assume it’s probably from that dynamic system the euro shows, its likely nothing will come of it, but just interesting to see that show up in the GEFS

[Ntxw]

With just a few days left of November and this thread, we'll be moving to the official winter thread come December 1st.

Interestingly I did a little ESRL NARR analysis and this November so far does not resemble the warmer PDO El Ninos (obviously) such as 2014, 2019 etc where it was quite chilly for the month. We are actually running a little closer to 2009 at 500mb.

Cold chilly 2014/2019.



2009 mild.



2023.



December was the complete reversal with 2009 ending up very cold and some big -AO while 2014/2019 were warm with +AO.

We need to hold the -AO over the Atlantic-Arctic and flip the Pacific for a 2009 outcome.

[Ntxw]

The 18z GEFS has actually a minor snow signal for parts of central and north texas at hour 192, id assume it’s probably from that dynamic system the euro shows, its likely nothing will come of it, but just interesting to see that show up in the GEFS

MJO will swing back to the El Nino phases by mid December and constructively interfere. I would definitely be looking for several strong systems swinging across that may peak interest. Dec 4th frame is the earliest with another system likely behind its heels.

[bubba hotep]

With just a few days left of November and this thread, we'll be moving to the official winter thread come December 1st.

Interestingly I did a little ESRL NARR analysis and this November so far does not resemble the warmer PDO El Ninos (obviously) such as 2014, 2019 etc where it was quite chilly for the month. We are actually running a little closer to 2009 at 500mb.

Cold chilly 2014/2019.

https://i.imgur.com/jfERG26.png

2009 mild.

https://i.imgur.com/5GIdnEY.png

2023.

https://i.imgur.com/2gDMQM8.gif

December was the complete reversal with 2009 ending up very cold and some big -AO while 2014/2019 were warm with +AO.

We need to hold the -AO over the Atlantic-Arctic and flip the Pacific for a 2009 outcome.

Early winter -AO/NAO is often a sign of things to come later in the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we start to hear more "'09/10" chatter.

[Ntxw]

With just a few days left of November and this thread, we'll be moving to the official winter thread come December 1st.

Interestingly I did a little ESRL NARR analysis and this November so far does not resemble the warmer PDO El Ninos (obviously) such as 2014, 2019 etc where it was quite chilly for the month. We are actually running a little closer to 2009 at 500mb.

Cold chilly 2014/2019.

https://i.imgur.com/jfERG26.png

2009 mild.

https://i.imgur.com/5GIdnEY.png

2023.

https://i.imgur.com/2gDMQM8.gif

December was the complete reversal with 2009 ending up very cold and some big -AO while 2014/2019 were warm with +AO.

We need to hold the -AO over the Atlantic-Arctic and flip the Pacific for a 2009 outcome.

Early winter -AO/NAO is often a sign of things to come later in the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we start to hear more "'09/10" chatter.

There's some support from the recent Euro weeklies. December gradually gets colder (relative) as the month goes on. Southern plains in a good spot for negative 500mb anomalies.

[Brent]

With just a few days left of November and this thread, we'll be moving to the official winter thread come December 1st.

Interestingly I did a little ESRL NARR analysis and this November so far does not resemble the warmer PDO El Ninos (obviously) such as 2014, 2019 etc where it was quite chilly for the month. We are actually running a little closer to 2009 at 500mb.

Cold chilly 2014/2019.

https://i.imgur.com/jfERG26.png

2009 mild.

https://i.imgur.com/5GIdnEY.png

2023.

https://i.imgur.com/2gDMQM8.gif

December was the complete reversal with 2009 ending up very cold and some big -AO while 2014/2019 were warm with +AO.

We need to hold the -AO over the Atlantic-Arctic and flip the Pacific for a 2009 outcome.

Early winter -AO/NAO is often a sign of things to come later in the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we start to hear more "'09/10" chatter.

There's some support from the recent Euro weeklies. December gradually gets colder (relative) as the month goes on. Southern plains in a good spot for negative 500mb anomalies.

For what it's worth I've seen a couple people up here talking about mid December for awhile now. One of our TV mets even predicted our first real snowfall then. We shall see if it pans out or not. I don't think it actually really snowed here in 09-10 til Christmas Eve tbh which was a raging blizzard

There also was another TV met who had a very bullish forecast for the winter with 12 snow and ice days... I think we maybe had 4 last year he also predicted a couple inches in December

[tajmahal]

The GFS ensembles show no intrusion of Arctic air into Texas through at least December 12.

Northwest and northern Europe and then almost all of Russia are forecast to have long–duration periods of below to much below average temperatures during this period. That's a reflection of a stretched stratospheric polar vortex aimed at western Europe and the adjoining Atlantic Ocean.

[tajmahal]

For what it's worth I've seen a couple people up here talking about mid December for awhile now. One of our TV mets even predicted our first real snowfall then. We shall see if it pans out or not. I don't think it actually really snowed here in 09-10 til Christmas Eve tbh which was a raging blizzard

There also was another TV met who had a very bullish forecast for the winter with 12 snow and ice days... I think we maybe had 4 last year he also predicted a couple inches in December

What is Chris Nunley forecasting?