Texas Fall 2023

[tajmahal]

Mike Collier

Another one has predicted snow in December but didn't have a date

Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.

And that matters how?

You don't have to have a PhD to be a good met

It's obvious why that matters.

[Edwards Limestone]

I put taj on ignore and my board experience has been much more pleasant thus far. No room for trolls here.

Never knew that was an option. And I've been on here over a decade. Thanks.

I honestly just stumbled on it by chance. Click on your username in the upper right, then click User Control Panel >> Friends and Foes and add whomever you want to ignore to the foes list.

[Ntxw]

Last day for the Fall thread!

Onward to the winter thread! Bread and butter for most of us! Pretty soon wxman57 will be active crushing our hopes and dreams but we battle on!

If you need link is below to the winter thread.

Texas Winter Thread 2023-2024

[Tireman4]

Brighter news from our region


Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
3m
⚠️#BREAKING -

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has DOWNGRADED the area from a level 3 to level 2 risk. As mentioned in previous discussions... the potential for severe weather today is VERY conditional.

Still a chance for severe storms but lower than initially thought

[dpep4]

Did not expect an Enhance Risk of turbulence on the board today. This too shall pass.

Keep posting Taj, I like your contributions. Even if I don't always agree (or maybe mostly don't agree, I dunno) I appreciate different viewpoints. I have never seen it as trolling, just a different perspective.

Those that don't agree on something can speak out, debate, call out, or even choose to put someone on ignore, but I am not a fan of censorship.

[tajmahal]

Mike Collier

Another one has predicted snow in December but didn't have a date

Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.

Not sure if your trolling here or just making a comment but like others said, what does it matter? What metric do you gauge intelligence on to allow someone to have an opinion on something?

What certifications or degrees do you have for weather?

I'm sure this post will get moderated and removed, but your negatively and somewhat perceived arrogance is very tiring. This is a fun board where we as amateurs and some certified professionals (perhaps not good enough for some if they don't have a PhD) come together to talk about the weather. Not to measure or question someone's intelligence.

The Dunning–Kruger effect.......

https://youtu.be/RAlI0pbMQiM?feature=shared

I have a Ph.D. I have been involved with and studied the atmosphere since I was a teenager. That's 50 years. You?

[gpsnowman]

I put taj on ignore and my board experience has been much more pleasant thus far. No room for trolls here.

Never knew that was an option. And I've been on here over a decade. Thanks.

I honestly just stumbled on it by chance. Click on your username in the upper right, then click User Control Panel >> Friends and Foes and add whomever you want to ignore to the foes list.

Done. Never needed this until now but here we are.

[ElectricStorm]

Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.

And that matters how?

You don't have to have a PhD to be a good met

It's obvious why that matters.

It literally doesn't matter, there are amazing mets out there that don't have PhD, you would see that if you would have read other recent posts in this thread. Having a PhD doesn't automatically make someone better than someone else.

This whole "correcting" people thing is really getting old and I think the entire board would appreciate it if you stop

[Tireman4]

Activity is starting to pick up south of Houston....

A special weather statement has been issued for El Campo TX, Ganado TX and Louise TX until 9:15 AM CST

[ElectricStorm]

Marginal risk up here now Just the second one of the month. Won't be anything crazy but maybe we can get a nice storm.

Enhanced risk has been dropped which doesn't surprise me, was surprised they added it on the Day 2 honestly. Could have a few tornadoes but it looks like cloud cover might help to limit that. Definitely needs to be watched though

[HockeyTx82]

Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.

Not sure if your trolling here or just making a comment but like others said, what does it matter? What metric do you gauge intelligence on to allow someone to have an opinion on something?

What certifications or degrees do you have for weather?

I'm sure this post will get moderated and removed, but your negatively and somewhat perceived arrogance is very tiring. This is a fun board where we as amateurs and some certified professionals (perhaps not good enough for some if they don't have a PhD) come together to talk about the weather. Not to measure or question someone's intelligence.

The Dunning–Kruger effect.......

https://youtu.be/RAlI0pbMQiM?feature=shared

I have a Ph.D. I have been involved with and studied the atmosphere since I was a teenager. That's 50 years. You?

Ahh yes, the Piled higher and Deeper degree.

Was humility and compassion not on your GRE list of study vocabulary?

I have just a bachelor's degree in basket weaving from a 4 year public University. I'll put my tail between my legs and go home.

You win.

[jasons2k]

***I hope I don’t have to start babysitting this thread but I will if needed.

Tread carefully. I will have no tolerance for “trolling” here.***

Some breaks are forming in the clouds out over the Gulf. Agreed the placement has shifted south but the threat is still there.

I think the folks near Galveston Bay need to keep a very close watch as we move into the afternoon. If I were Reed Timmer I’d be having lunch in Angleton.

[cstrunk]

I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.

[tajmahal]

The GFS endsemble mean is showing that the 500 mb high over the Aleutians during mid–December will be undercut by fast flow and shoved into the Arctic without causing downstream long wave troughing.

[rwfromkansas]

Thanks for the info on the ignore list. Done. I sometimes appreciate a contrary perspective (Wxman is great at this but doing so in a nice way), but it seems like the entire purpose is to snobbily correct people....

[cheezyWXguy]

I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.

I don’t think the enhanced was a bad call, as the kinematics are pretty impressive, and any clearing might have been enough to realize the highly conditional threat. Since that hasn’t happened, fully agree with them taking it away.

Convective Chronicles had a forecast discussion on YouTube yesterday where he mentioned that the northward extent of moisture return was lagging behind what some of the cams were showing, this is probably what caused the threat area to shift south and ultimately kept things below the required threshold imo

[Tireman4]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
1h
⚠️ UPDATED TIMING -

While the potential for severe weather has lowered a bit - the timing and thinking remains the same

⏰ Peak timing is from now through mid-afternoon
⚡️ Still a very conditional threat
Isolated tornadoes remain the primary concern

@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston

[jasons2k]

First signs of rotation in Brazoria County cell.
Off we go…

[HockeyTx82]

I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.

I don’t think the enhanced was a bad call, as the kinematics are pretty impressive, and any clearing might have been enough to realize the highly conditional threat. Since that hasn’t happened, fully agree with them taking it away.

Convective Chronicles had a forecast discussion on YouTube yesterday where he mentioned that the northward extent of moisture return was lagging behind what some of the cams were showing, this is probably what caused the threat area to shift south and ultimately kept things below the required threshold imo

My guess is the forecaster who made the initial call for Enhanced did not have a PhD. The Government will take anyone these days for work.....

[Tireman4]

TORNADO WATCH POSSIBLE -

The SPC has highlighted areas along and south of Houston for the potential of a tornado watch later this afternoon

Storms have started to develop across these areas and if trends continue a watch may be needed

@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston #TXwx