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Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:38 am
by tajmahal
ElectricStorm wrote:tajmahal wrote:Brent wrote:
Mike Collier
Another one has predicted snow in December but didn't have a date
Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.
And that matters how?
You don't have to have a PhD to be a good met
It's obvious why that matters.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:38 am
by Edwards Limestone
gpsnowman wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:I put taj on ignore and my board experience has been much more pleasant thus far. No room for trolls here.
Never knew that was an option. And I've been on here over a decade. Thanks.
I honestly just stumbled on it by chance. Click on your username in the upper right, then click User Control Panel >> Friends and Foes and add whomever you want to ignore to the foes list.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:41 am
by Ntxw
Last day for the Fall thread!
Onward to the winter thread! Bread and butter for most of us! Pretty soon wxman57 will be active crushing our hopes and dreams but we battle on!
If you need link is below to the winter thread.
Texas Winter Thread 2023-2024
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:41 am
by Tireman4
Brighter news from our region
Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
3m
⚠️#BREAKING -
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has DOWNGRADED the area from a level 3 to level 2 risk. As mentioned in previous discussions... the potential for severe weather today is VERY conditional.
Still a chance for severe storms but lower than initially thought
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:45 am
by dpep4
Did not expect an Enhance Risk of turbulence on the board today. This too shall pass.
Keep posting Taj, I like your contributions. Even if I don't always agree (or maybe mostly don't agree, I dunno) I appreciate different viewpoints. I have never seen it as trolling, just a different perspective.
Those that don't agree on something can speak out, debate, call out, or even choose to put someone on ignore, but I am not a fan of censorship.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:47 am
by tajmahal
HockeyTx82 wrote:tajmahal wrote:Brent wrote:
Mike Collier
Another one has predicted snow in December but didn't have a date
Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.
Not sure if your trolling here or just making a comment but like others said, what does it matter? What metric do you gauge intelligence on to allow someone to have an opinion on something?
What certifications or degrees do you have for weather?
I'm sure this post will get moderated and removed, but your negatively and somewhat perceived arrogance is very tiring. This is a fun board where we as amateurs and some certified professionals (perhaps not good enough for some if they don't have a PhD) come together to talk about the weather. Not to measure or question someone's intelligence.
The Dunning–Kruger effect.......
https://youtu.be/RAlI0pbMQiM?feature=shared
I have a Ph.D. I have been involved with and studied the atmosphere since I was a teenager. That's 50 years. You?
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:48 am
by gpsnowman
Edwards Limestone wrote:gpsnowman wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:I put taj on ignore and my board experience has been much more pleasant thus far. No room for trolls here.
Never knew that was an option. And I've been on here over a decade. Thanks.
I honestly just stumbled on it by chance. Click on your username in the upper right, then click User Control Panel >> Friends and Foes and add whomever you want to ignore to the foes list.
Done. Never needed this until now but here we are.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:50 am
by ElectricStorm
tajmahal wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:tajmahal wrote:
Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.
And that matters how?
You don't have to have a PhD to be a good met
It's obvious why that matters.
It literally doesn't matter, there are amazing mets out there that don't have PhD, you would see that if you would have read other recent posts in this thread. Having a PhD doesn't automatically make someone better than someone else.
This whole "correcting" people thing is really getting old and I think the entire board would appreciate it if you stop
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:53 am
by Tireman4
Activity is starting to pick up south of Houston....
A special weather statement has been issued for El Campo TX, Ganado TX and Louise TX until 9:15 AM CST
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:58 am
by ElectricStorm
Marginal risk up here now
Just the second one of the month. Won't be anything crazy but maybe we can get a nice storm.
Enhanced risk has been dropped which doesn't surprise me, was surprised they added it on the Day 2 honestly. Could have a few tornadoes but it looks like cloud cover might help to limit that. Definitely needs to be watched though
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:07 pm
by HockeyTx82
tajmahal wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:tajmahal wrote:
Chris Nunley has a Ph.D. in meteorology. The others don't.
Not sure if your trolling here or just making a comment but like others said, what does it matter? What metric do you gauge intelligence on to allow someone to have an opinion on something?
What certifications or degrees do you have for weather?
I'm sure this post will get moderated and removed, but your negatively and somewhat perceived arrogance is very tiring. This is a fun board where we as amateurs and some certified professionals (perhaps not good enough for some if they don't have a PhD) come together to talk about the weather. Not to measure or question someone's intelligence.
The Dunning–Kruger effect.......
https://youtu.be/RAlI0pbMQiM?feature=shared
I have a Ph.D. I have been involved with and studied the atmosphere since I was a teenager. That's 50 years. You?
Ahh yes, the Piled higher and Deeper degree.
Was humility and compassion not on your GRE list of study vocabulary?
I have just a bachelor's degree in basket weaving from a 4 year public University. I'll put my tail between my legs and go home.
You win.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:17 pm
by jasons2k
***I hope I don’t have to start babysitting this thread but I will if needed.
Tread carefully. I will have no tolerance for “trolling” here.***
Some breaks are forming in the clouds out over the Gulf. Agreed the placement has shifted south but the threat is still there.
I think the folks near Galveston Bay need to keep a very close watch as we move into the afternoon. If I were Reed Timmer I’d be having lunch in Angleton.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:18 pm
by cstrunk
I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:34 pm
by tajmahal
The GFS endsemble mean is showing that the 500 mb high over the Aleutians during mid–December will be undercut by fast flow and shoved into the Arctic without causing downstream long wave troughing.
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:48 pm
by rwfromkansas
Thanks for the info on the ignore list. Done. I sometimes appreciate a contrary perspective (Wxman is great at this but doing so in a nice way), but it seems like the entire purpose is to snobbily correct people....
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:49 pm
by cheezyWXguy
cstrunk wrote:I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.
I don’t think the enhanced was a bad call, as the kinematics are pretty impressive, and any clearing might have been enough to realize the highly conditional threat. Since that hasn’t happened, fully agree with them taking it away.
Convective Chronicles had a forecast discussion on YouTube yesterday where he mentioned that the northward extent of moisture return was lagging behind what some of the cams were showing, this is probably what caused the threat area to shift south and ultimately kept things below the required threshold imo
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:55 pm
by Tireman4
Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
1h
⚠️ UPDATED TIMING -
While the potential for severe weather has lowered a bit - the timing and thinking remains the same
⏰ Peak timing is from now through mid-afternoon
⚡️ Still a very conditional threat
Isolated tornadoes remain the primary concern
@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:58 pm
by jasons2k
First signs of rotation in Brazoria County cell.
Off we go…
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:59 pm
by HockeyTx82
cheezyWXguy wrote:cstrunk wrote:I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.
I don’t think the enhanced was a bad call, as the kinematics are pretty impressive, and any clearing might have been enough to realize the highly conditional threat. Since that hasn’t happened, fully agree with them taking it away.
Convective Chronicles had a forecast discussion on YouTube yesterday where he mentioned that the northward extent of moisture return was lagging behind what some of the cams were showing, this is probably what caused the threat area to shift south and ultimately kept things below the required threshold imo
My guess is the forecaster who made the initial call for Enhanced did not have a PhD. The Government will take anyone these days for work.....
Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 1:15 pm
by Tireman4
TORNADO WATCH POSSIBLE -
The SPC has highlighted areas along and south of Houston for the potential of a tornado watch later this afternoon
Storms have started to develop across these areas and if trends continue a watch may be needed
@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston #TXwx