Texas Spring 2024

[Edwards Limestone]

Can already see the bust coming for SC TX- while NTX/OK/AR gets torrential rainfall.
It's been an underwhelming spring rainfall wise down here. Always so localized, hit or miss. Never widespread enough, never in the right places. Too far east and north.

Most areas on the western/southern Edwards Plateau are still under significant drought conditions and have been for 2+ years now.
Canyon Lake is in deep trouble.

We sure do get a lot of drizzle/fog though

[South Texas Storms]

Can already see the bust coming for SC TX- while NTX/OK/AR gets torrential rainfall.
It's been an underwhelming spring rainfall wise down here. Always so localized, hit or miss. Never widespread enough, never in the right places. Too far east and north.

Most areas on the western/southern Edwards Plateau are still under significant drought conditions and have been for 2+ years now.
Canyon Lake is in deep trouble.

We sure do get a lot of drizzle/fog though

Most of the guidance is indicating rainfall totals will likely reach around 0.50-1.00 inch by Sunday across south central TX. Sure the bust potential is there as always, but I'm optimistic right now. Would be nice to see the bullseye across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau with this event.

[Ntxw]

There are hints that May will be western trough and eastern ridge. This would bring better rainfall odds for drier part of the state. It would also increase the severe weather activity in the Plains compared to April's eastern trough and western ridge.

The 500mb pattern has been too amplified for severe outbreaks.

[snownado]

There are hints that May will be western trough and eastern ridge. This would bring better rainfall odds for drier part of the state. It would also increase the severe weather activity in the Plains compared to April's eastern trough and western ridge.

The 500mb pattern has been too amplified for severe outbreaks.

That's definitely the drum Larry Cosgrove's been beating.

[snownado]

Can already see the bust coming for SC TX- while NTX/OK/AR gets torrential rainfall.
It's been an underwhelming spring rainfall wise down here. Always so localized, hit or miss. Never widespread enough, never in the right places. Too far east and north.

Most areas on the western/southern Edwards Plateau are still under significant drought conditions and have been for 2+ years now.
Canyon Lake is in deep trouble.

We sure do get a lot of drizzle/fog though

I wouldn't get too hung up on model QPF output verbatim, especially since the locations of the more intense convection (thus heavier rainfall) will be heavily outflow driven.

More to the point, it's very much plausible the zone of heavier rainfall will set up further SE than what's currently projected.

[HockeyTx82]

HRRR is looking more like a DFW and SE event. Not seeing anything NW of the metro.

[Ntxw]

Surface front approaching DFW now. Largely quiet passage with NW winds and lower humidity behind it. 850mb front will be where activity will increase the next several days. Cooler temps.

[Brent]

Well we had fropa here but no real rain unfortunately again... Trying to remember the last time it really rained here and Saturday looks like it may be south of us .

I dunno I'm still waiting for this great active pattern with summer getting closer and closer. It has not happened here

[Cpv17]

Well we had fropa here but no real rain unfortunately again... Trying to remember the last time it really rained here and Saturday looks like it may be south of us .

I dunno I'm still waiting for this great active pattern with summer getting closer and closer. It has not happened here

Rain is coming for you later this month man. Hang in there.

[Anti-freeze]

Tor warn in Lometa.

[Cpv17]

Tor warn in Lometa.

Interesting movement for a tor warned storm.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yesterday's 60% coverage forecast busted like a Ballon, so I'm not going to expect anything different for Saturday.

I don't blame the forecasters, poor models and just bad data is all you got to go off of.

[Gotwood]

Yesterday's 60% coverage forecast busted like a Ballon, so I'm not going to expect anything different for Saturday.

I don't blame the forecasters, poor models and just bad data is all you got to go off of.

We need some big rain hopefully tomorrow delivers.

[gpsnowman]

Yesterday's 60% coverage forecast busted like a Ballon, so I'm not going to expect anything different for Saturday.

I don't blame the forecasters, poor models and just bad data is all you got to go off of.

Steve McCauley didn't even mention yesterday in any of his FB posts. Last post was 3 days ago. He's a great source for severe locally. Honestly I had a hunch yesterday would bust anyway but what do I know. Hopefully Saturday will provide some rain but it will be comfy cool nonetheless.

[jasons2k]

Update earlier this AM from Jeff Lindner:

Heavy rain possible Saturday evening into early Sunday across the northern portions of SE TX.

Weak frontal boundary currently just north of Austin is sliding southward this morning with a warm and moist air mass in place across all of SE TX ahead of this feature. High resolution guidance continues the southward track of this boundary today to roughly along a line from Columbus to Tomball to Cleveland which is much further south than the global models have been suggesting. A weak disturbance is also approaching SE TX from the southwest currently similar to yesterday at this time, but the radar is mostly clear. Convection allowing models (CAMs) show some development near the frontal boundary late this afternoon and early evening from roughly Sealy to Tomball to Conroe. This may be some enhancement of the frontal boundary with an inland moving seabreeze. Anything that does develop looks to weaken and dissipate by 8-9pm.

Saturday:
Weak frontal boundary will attempt to lift northward early Saturday, but how much northward progress is questionable…effectively the boundary will be stalled/meandering somewhere between Houston and College Station during the day. CAMs show a robust disturbance moving out of MX tonight with a well defined thunderstorm complex developing over the Rio Grande plains, but this activity weakens as it moves eastward across SC TX. Can’t rule out a few showers Saturday morning with the front in the area and this disturbance approaching from the southwest.

Renewed influx of tropical air mass into the region will occur by early Saturday afternoon with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches or near maximum levels for mid April moving into the area from the western Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating across the area when combined with the approach of a stronger upper level disturbance is setting the stage for thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. Short range guidance is not in great agreement on how activity will play out Saturday afternoon into the overnight period with several scenarios on the table. One scenario suggests storms begin to fire in the 3-5pm time frame from Austin County through NW Harris to Montgomery County and then slowly develop/move ENE. Another scenario is that a thunderstorm complex develops over central TX and moves into the region later in the evening. One or a combination of both of these potentials is plausible.

Heavy Rainfall:
Nearly all factors are in place for heavy rainfall late Saturday with copious moisture, a feed of tropical moisture off the Gulf, a slow moving low level boundary, and diffluent upper air winds aloft. The threat for cell training is certainly in place and this is where things could add up fast given the environment in play. Hard part of the forecast is where is the best potential for cell training and where is the southern cut-off of the heavy rainfall. There looks to be a strong rainfall gradient across the area with totals near the coast less than .50 of an inch and totals in the College Station to Livingston area of 1-3 inches. Higher isolated totals are almost certain and would not be surprised to see some locally 4-6 inches in places where storms anchor and training persists.

For the metro area think 1-2 inches north of I-10 is most likely, but will need to keep an eye on the southward extent of the potential heavy rains to the north and any trends that would suggest a slightly more southern extent to the heavy rainfall.

Hydro:
Heaviest rains on Saturday into early Sunday are expected north of HWY 105 which will impact the Trinity, east and west Forks of the San Jacinto River, Navasota, and middle Brazos basins. Currently, not expecting any significant flooding on any of these systems, but will at least need to keep an eye on the more flashy San Jacinto and Navasota basins and where any sustained corridor of heavy rainfall occurs.

Forecasted Rainfall (Today-Sunday):






Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Brent]

Well we had fropa here but no real rain unfortunately again... Trying to remember the last time it really rained here and Saturday looks like it may be south of us .

I dunno I'm still waiting for this great active pattern with summer getting closer and closer. It has not happened here

Rain is coming for you later this month man. Hang in there.

Eh I hope it goes better than all the snow predictions did

[Ntxw]

Well we had fropa here but no real rain unfortunately again... Trying to remember the last time it really rained here and Saturday looks like it may be south of us .

I dunno I'm still waiting for this great active pattern with summer getting closer and closer. It has not happened here

Rain is coming for you later this month man. Hang in there.

Eh I hope it goes better than all the snow predictions did

Plus we have climo on our side. When you discount all the other factors, naturally every year as the temperature gradient shifts northward so does the overall QPF. NTX and Oklahoma is April->May while areas south of us is March into April. Red River north is May in particular.

It's like clockwork the Beaumont area is 50+ inches every year and is always rainy early.

[Iceresistance]

Euro is still showing a VERY WET signal


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZjuo.png

[ElectricStorm]

Broyles back at it again with a Day 7 15%

Good looking dryline but temps aloft look warm, if models verified (which they won't) it would probably be a cap bust. Not worried about it for now

[rwfromkansas]

Euro is still showing a VERY WET signal

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZjuo.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SZjuo.png

Appears to be shifting SE again. So much for the very heavy rain west of DFW they need.