Texas Spring 2024

[txtwister78]

That has to be the world's smallest tornado watch they just issued. What the heck's going on up there. It looks like it's starting to make a line to head down into Texas now.

"Good news" for Texas (particularly around the town of Burkburnett) is with that outflow boundary surging south that should help to limit the tornado threat for that area. Still a ton of rain and hail though.

[DW5522]

It’s not big city’s like Houston or DFW but little towns all through that area. Rough night for sure.

[Cpv17]

It’s not big city’s like Houston or DFW but little towns all through that area. Rough night for sure.

Hopefully it spared them. It’s going to be interesting what this will be rated. Has to be at least an EF4 you’d think.

[WeatherNewbie]

I haven’t seen anything that would indicate tonight.

wunderground has us at 100% tonight. line already forming out west.

That’s weird cuz none of the models I’ve seen show anything for tonight in that area. Tomorrow looks busy though.

models ended up being right... missed dfw.

[Cpv17]

The SPC already has next Monday in a 15% chance from far northern Texas into Nebraska.

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1785705495522681047

[txtwister78]

WPC has shifted the moderate risk for excessive rainfall down into the San Antonio metro. In addition, a Flash Flood Watch has just been issued to account for this.

[snownado]

Looks like we may get some rain tonight here in N Tx. It feels miserable outside.

Oh my sweet winter child...

You'll be begging for this "misery" a few weeks from now...

[snownado]

Aside from the 3km NAM, the latest hi-res models aren't looking all that great for rain prospects in DFW...

[rwfromkansas]

I swear, the high-res models have just been very waffling lately. Hard to know what the heck is going to happen until the day of the event. I was thinking we would be good for more rain here, but it's shifting south. They need it badly though.

[snownado]

I swear, the high-res models have just been very waffling lately. Hard to know what the heck is going to happen until the day of the event. I was thinking we would be good for more rain here, but it's shifting south. They need it badly though.

As usual with these types of setups, the final outcome is heavily dependent upon the evolution of mesoscale features that models struggle to get a handle on, sometimes even several hours out.

The complex of storms last night that overachieved and propagated all the way down to Texoma kind of complicated things for today/tonight. The outflow boundary from it is now all the way down into Central Texas and the Big Country region (and yes, so far with nothing to show for it in DFW besides a wind shift and drop in humidity).

[rwfromkansas]

SPC isn't concerned from their graphics about last night impacting today much it seems.

[Edwards Limestone]

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...South central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 012033Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across portions of south central Texas and the Hill Country within
the next 1 to 2 hours. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and
wind gusts exceeding 70 mph could accompany a couple of discrete
supercells.

DISCUSSION...Widespread stratus across most of south central Texas
has been slow to erode through this afternoon. However, visible
satellite imagery indicates some mixing is occurring across the
region where temperatures are already in the mid 70s to low 80s.
This, combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s and steep
(7.5-8 C) mid level lapse rates is yielding 2500-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. As an upstream mid level shortwave trough, apparent in
latest WV imagery over southwest Chihuahua Mexico, approaches in the
next 1 to 2 hours mid level ascent should aid in the development of
scattered thunderstorms. Given deep layer effective shear magnitudes
around 50 kt any localized deeper convection could become organized
with a threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a
lack of additional forcing mechanisms at the surface should limit
the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty
of the coverage, confidence in a weather watch is not particularly
high at this moment.

..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/01/2024

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0590.html

[Edwards Limestone]

20z HRRR doesn't seem too impressed. Hope it's wrong, we need all we can get down here.

[txtwister78]

Heavy rain has setup over Blanco County stretching into the Austin metro. While not great news for areas further south, at least some folks across the region are getting some much-needed rainfall. Unfortunately for the town of Blanco, it's coming down so hard that we're seeing some localized flash flooding with rates at 4 inches per hour.

[CaptinCrunch]

Scattered light shower is all DFW is going to see this evening, with maybe a better coverage of light showers over night.

[snownado]

I'm seeing 90s show up in the forecast for next week.

[Edwards Limestone]

Looks like we are about done south of Austin unless more convection fires down here tonight.

Very beneficial rainfall in Blanco and Kendall Co albeit isolated.

I got 0.04” so far lol.

[txtwister78]

Looks like we are about done south of Austin unless more convection fires down here tonight.

Very beneficial rainfall in Blanco and Kendall Co albeit isolated.

I got 0.04” so far lol.

Holding out some hope that the HRRR (which has done well thus far) is right overnight into tomorrow. 0z is putting down some good amounts further south.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like we are about done south of Austin unless more convection fires down here tonight.

Very beneficial rainfall in Blanco and Kendall Co albeit isolated.

I got 0.04” so far lol.

Holding out some hope that the HRRR (which has done well thus far) is right overnight into tomorrow. 0z is putting down some good amounts further south.

Gonna be a huge bummer if much of SA and the Hill Country miss out again...so frustrating. Still time but losing hope.