Texas Spring 2024
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8579
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Spring 2024
A nice heavy rain this morning accompanied with some nice lightening and loud boomers.
A solid 30 min downpour definitely soaked the yard.
A solid 30 min downpour definitely soaked the yard.
2 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2011
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
So when do we start the doomsday talk for Day 6 and 7?
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
0 likes
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4018
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
If the HRRR is right south central TX will get screwed again with the rain later today. Hope it's wrong but my hope has dwindled this morning...
1 likes
- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8083
- Age: 50
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Update from Jeff:
Heavy rainfall is likely over parts of SE TX this afternoon into the evening hours.
Weak surface boundary noted in surface observations this morning is stalled roughly along a line from Eagle Lake to Katy to Humble to Cleveland as noted by dewpoints in the mid and upper 60’s to the north of this line and low 70’s to the south. Additionally, winds to the north of this boundary are from the ENE/NE and ESE south of the boundary. With the approach of a trough out of the SW US by early afternoon, expect lift and convergence near this boundary to increase and the development of thunderstorms. There appears to be decent agreement that storms will develop along this boundary from Colorado County to southern Austin/Waller Counties into northwest Harris and Montgomery Counties as early as early afternoon but more likely mid to late afternoon. Additional activity possibly in the form of an organized thunderstorm complex may approach from central Texas this evening.
It is this initial development of thunderstorms that has the concerning heavy rainfall threat as these storms look to anchor near the low level boundary over the area, initially move slowly and potentially exhibit cell training for a period of time before eventually moving toward the east and weakening into the late evening hours.
Factors are in place for heavy rainfall including near maximum amounts of moisture for this time of year, sustained lift this afternoon and evening, a slow moving/quasi-stationary low level boundary, favorably aligned low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico, and enhanced divergence aloft. The combination of these factors point toward a heavy rainfall event north of I-10 later today into tonight. It should be noted that there is going to be a strong rainfall gradient over the area with likely several inches of rainfall occurring to the north of I-10 and potentially very little rain near the coast. It is possible that locations into north and west Harris County (Katy, Cypress, Tomball, The Woodlands) see several inches of rain while areas over southeast Harris County (Clear Lake, Baytown, Pasadena) see very little rainfall.
Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread amounts of 2-4 inches is likely north of I-10 with isolated totals of 5-7 inches or higher. HREF guidance continues to show some fairly impressive isolated totals…and given the setup and moisture in place I would not discount the higher amounts. South of I-10 rainfall amounts will be less than an inch and locations near the coast may see no rain at all.
Additionally, rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible in the stronger storms and this will cause rapid onset flash flooding. This is certainly the setup where everything is fine and in 1-2 hours flash flooding is occurring with intense short duration rainfall rates. This will be especially true in any urban areas where primary street drainage systems can be quickly overwhelmed with such rainfall rates.
Hydro:
Depending on where exactly the corridor of heavy rainfall develops will determine which watersheds are most impacted. Current thinking is from the Trinity across the San Jacinto into the Brazos and San Bernard basins and would not rule out the creeks in NW Harris (Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, Willow). Depending on totals and location, significant rises overnight will be possible on some of these basins.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Heavy rainfall is likely over parts of SE TX this afternoon into the evening hours.
Weak surface boundary noted in surface observations this morning is stalled roughly along a line from Eagle Lake to Katy to Humble to Cleveland as noted by dewpoints in the mid and upper 60’s to the north of this line and low 70’s to the south. Additionally, winds to the north of this boundary are from the ENE/NE and ESE south of the boundary. With the approach of a trough out of the SW US by early afternoon, expect lift and convergence near this boundary to increase and the development of thunderstorms. There appears to be decent agreement that storms will develop along this boundary from Colorado County to southern Austin/Waller Counties into northwest Harris and Montgomery Counties as early as early afternoon but more likely mid to late afternoon. Additional activity possibly in the form of an organized thunderstorm complex may approach from central Texas this evening.
It is this initial development of thunderstorms that has the concerning heavy rainfall threat as these storms look to anchor near the low level boundary over the area, initially move slowly and potentially exhibit cell training for a period of time before eventually moving toward the east and weakening into the late evening hours.
Factors are in place for heavy rainfall including near maximum amounts of moisture for this time of year, sustained lift this afternoon and evening, a slow moving/quasi-stationary low level boundary, favorably aligned low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico, and enhanced divergence aloft. The combination of these factors point toward a heavy rainfall event north of I-10 later today into tonight. It should be noted that there is going to be a strong rainfall gradient over the area with likely several inches of rainfall occurring to the north of I-10 and potentially very little rain near the coast. It is possible that locations into north and west Harris County (Katy, Cypress, Tomball, The Woodlands) see several inches of rain while areas over southeast Harris County (Clear Lake, Baytown, Pasadena) see very little rainfall.
Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread amounts of 2-4 inches is likely north of I-10 with isolated totals of 5-7 inches or higher. HREF guidance continues to show some fairly impressive isolated totals…and given the setup and moisture in place I would not discount the higher amounts. South of I-10 rainfall amounts will be less than an inch and locations near the coast may see no rain at all.
Additionally, rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible in the stronger storms and this will cause rapid onset flash flooding. This is certainly the setup where everything is fine and in 1-2 hours flash flooding is occurring with intense short duration rainfall rates. This will be especially true in any urban areas where primary street drainage systems can be quickly overwhelmed with such rainfall rates.
Hydro:
Depending on where exactly the corridor of heavy rainfall develops will determine which watersheds are most impacted. Current thinking is from the Trinity across the San Jacinto into the Brazos and San Bernard basins and would not rule out the creeks in NW Harris (Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, Willow). Depending on totals and location, significant rises overnight will be possible on some of these basins.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
0 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 66
- Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:04 pm
- Location: Arlington, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Love needing to catch up on sleep and a loud thunderstorm moves in at 7:00. And another one at 7:30. And another one at 8:00.
And another one at 8:30. And another one at 9:00 that knocks the power out. And another one at 9:30...
Update: Another one at 10:00.
And another one at 8:30. And another one at 9:00 that knocks the power out. And another one at 9:30...
Update: Another one at 10:00.
1 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2024
1.10" so far at DFW. 850mb warm/cold boundary has been focal point of the somewhat elevated thunderstorms. Quite a bit of thunder, not a lot of severe.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 588
- Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
- Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
2.22 so far at my house. The majority came all at once around 8:00a. Its really starting to light up out west. Its reloading earlier than I though it would.
1 likes
- Edwards Limestone
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 373
- Age: 35
- Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
- Location: Smithson Valley, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
South Texas Storms wrote:If the HRRR is right south central TX will get screwed again with the rain later today. Hope it's wrong but my hope has dwindled this morning...
Can’t say I’m surprised. Just brutal down here the last couple of years with busts.
With La Niña coming, the next couple of years are really gonna suck unfortunately.
1 likes
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2225
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Spring 2024
My pessimism was luckily wrong.
Almost 1.5 inches IMBY. Poured this morning.
I’m actually west in Abilene today at my wife’s family and we are over 2 inches in a flash flood warning. Just dumping.
Almost 1.5 inches IMBY. Poured this morning.
I’m actually west in Abilene today at my wife’s family and we are over 2 inches in a flash flood warning. Just dumping.
1 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:26 pm
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Factors are in place for heavy rainfall including near maximum amounts of moisture for this time of year,
Hmmm, it's Tax Day Storm time of year down there.
0 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Total washout along I-20 temps in the low to mid 50s.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 588
- Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
- Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Spring 2024
DFW looks to be setting up for some flash flooding according to radar trends.
2 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2024
WacoWx wrote:DFW looks to be setting up for some flash flooding according to radar trends.
One of the more relaxing days I can remember love a cool rainy day.
3 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2024
Ntxw wrote:Total washout along I-20 temps in the low to mid 50s.
Not sure the record rain is for the date, but looking at radar I bet we beat it.
2 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2024
WacoWx wrote:We have an outdoor party to attend at 4:00
Ummmm I have some news for you......
1 likes
Re: Texas Spring 2024
gpsnowman wrote:Ntxw wrote:Total washout along I-20 temps in the low to mid 50s.
Not sure the record rain is for the date, but looking at radar I bet we beat it.
1.52" is record for the date, already beat it.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8579
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Spring 2024
From radar it looks like DFW could be in for some training storms and big totals the rest of the day/evening.
1 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: WacoWx and 66 guests