Texas Spring 2024

[jasons2k]

Something to watch for. Rainfall totals north of here are starting to really pile up...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...TX Hill Country into the Heart of TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020200Z - 020800Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding likely
with 3-5"+ additional localized totals through the early
overnight. A locally significant to extreme flooding event is also
possible, given the potential for greater than 5" and locally very
wet antecedent conditions.

Discussion...Multiple clusters of convection have organized across
portions of central and eastern TX (from the Hill Country to the
Heart of Texas), resulting in impressive 2-5" localized totals
over the past 3 hours. The mesoscale environment will continue to
support convective development and organization into the overnight
hours, as the air mass is characterized by high instability (SB
CAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and abundant, anomalously high, moisture
(PWATs 1.7-2.1 inches, between the 90th percentile and max moving
average per SPC sounding climatology).

While the 12z/18z CAMs have really struggled to properly develop
convection through the time of writing, the HRRR has managed to
'catch up' more with reality in depicting convection in the proper
places. This is a bit concerning, however, considering that some
of the latest runs of the HRRR (through 00z) depict additional
5-8" localized totals through 07z. And even though the 18z HREF is
off with the placement of convection relative to reality, there is
still a concerning signal for 5" exceedance (20-30%) across
southern portions of the MPD. This also corresponds to similar
probabilities (20-30%) for the 10 year ARI QPF exceedance, and a
bit higher probabilities (20-40%) for 6-hr FFG exceedance.

Given the concerning meteorological environment and indications
for locally significant rainfall rainfall, scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered to be likely. A locally
significant to extreme flooding event is also possible, given both
the elevated probability for localized totals greater than 5" and
very wet antecedent conditions across some eastern portions of the
MPD (per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles of 90%
or greater, and MRMS imagery indicating locally 6"+ over the prior
48 hours in the vicinity of College Station).

Churchill

[txtwister78]

Looks like we are about done south of Austin unless more convection fires down here tonight.

Very beneficial rainfall in Blanco and Kendall Co albeit isolated.

I got 0.04” so far lol.

Holding out some hope that the HRRR (which has done well thus far) is right overnight into tomorrow. 0z is putting down some good amounts further south.

Gonna be a huge bummer if much of SA and the Hill Country miss out again...so frustrating. Still time but losing hope.

Yup. It's looking better for the Hill Country by the minute. Hopefully we can get an outflow boundary to push/activate further south into SA. Seeing some heavy showers develop over western Bandera County now so that's encouraging.

[Cpv17]

That’s one hell of a storm over Trinity right now.

[jasons2k]

That’s one hell of a storm over Trinity right now.

I know someone who lives there and hoped they were OK.

[Edwards Limestone]

Zooming out on radar it looks like everything is pulling away north and east. DFW/Waco guys prob have a better chance than SA/NB tonight imo.

Frustrating but not surprising. Had a bad feeling when it was cloudy all day long down here with some early convection. Glad some areas out west got some much needed rain at least.

Mid to upper 90s next week is gonna suck though.

[Edwards Limestone]

Strong line building up west of Austin.

[ElectricStorm]

80mph line with QLCS circulations might pass just south of me. Looks like I'm gonna be staying up for a bit...

In other news the NWS only found EF1 damage from the monster tor yesterday so that's good that it didn't hit much. Probably the strongest EF1 of all time lol

[Bhow]

Flood watch absolutely verified IMBY

Over .05 inches of rain!!

[rwfromkansas]

They really need to get rid of the damage scale and start focusing on actual wind speed. If there is nothing to damage, that does not mean the tornado wasn't an EF5 or whatever. Throw out that scale with the absurd damage surveys and use radar wind speed.

Anyway, really nice complex overnight for DFW. 2-3 inches just west in Parker County etc. That will provide really good rains for Eagle Mountain Lake, which was one of the lakes that was straggling since the rain kept missing that watershed.

[Gotwood]

They really need to get rid of the damage scale and start focusing on actual wind speed. If there is nothing to damage, that does not mean the tornado wasn't an EF5 or whatever. Throw out that scale with the absurd damage surveys and use radar wind speed.

Anyway, really nice complex overnight for DFW. 2-3 inches just west in Parker County etc. That will provide really good rains for Eagle Mountain Lake, which was one of the lakes that was straggling since the rain kept missing that watershed.

Yeah I was shocked to see that monster Tor in Nebraska was only rated an EF3.

[cstrunk]

They really need to get rid of the damage scale and start focusing on actual wind speed. If there is nothing to damage, that does not mean the tornado wasn't an EF5 or whatever. Throw out that scale with the absurd damage surveys and use radar wind speed.

Anyway, really nice complex overnight for DFW. 2-3 inches just west in Parker County etc. That will provide really good rains for Eagle Mountain Lake, which was one of the lakes that was straggling since the rain kept missing that watershed.

I'm with you on that. At some point the scientific community is going to have to make a choice. Stick with a now-outdated way of recording tornado strength that is based on random luck that a rare well-built structure is impacted and a damage surveyor does a good damage survey, or get with the times and use improving technology and mobile radars that can measure actual wind speeds very accurately. It seems like a no brainer to me. You should keep track of tornado strength based on the best available information to have a better understanding of tornado statistics. But this is getting a bit off-topic so I'll stop there...

0.61" from this morning's showers. Thunderstorms in central/SE Texas shunted the heaviest axis of rainfall south of N/NE Texas.

[bubba hotep]

DFW airport officially picked up another 1.10" and is now over 6" ahead for the year.

[Anti-freeze]

But how accurate are those radar estimated wind speeds?

Don't the post-tornado surveyors also assess damage to vegetation, ground scouring, etc? I would be surprised if they have to have structural damage to be able to detect the difference between an EF4 or 5 and a 1.

[bubba hotep]

Lots of Flash Flood Warnings are ongoing from Orange, TX, back westward to the Norhtner Houston burbs.

[snownado]

Lots of Flash Flood Warnings are ongoing from Orange, TX, back westward to the Norhtner Houston burbs.

Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see amounts pushing double digits whwn all said and done.

I guess better the northern vs. southern suburbs though (which have an even harder time with handling heavy rain).

[Cpv17]

Lots of water rescues going on north of Houston. Several homes are flooded out. Still not a drop of rain at my place though.

[bubba hotep]

I wonder if storms might overperform and make it farther east than expected. It looks like some recovery is starting across DFW.

[txtwister78]

Need to get some of these leftover boundaries from storms yesterday/overnight to activate down across San Antonio metro. One moving southwest near New Braunfels. If we can get some heating going, perhaps things will begin to fire a bit this afternoon. Good news is we have more than enough moisture in place so anything that does develop would be efficient rain makers.

Think models will continue to be hit or miss over the next few days across South Central Texas as a result of where these boundaries establish themselves and assuming they can activate with daytime heating. Not great odds but at least it's not zero.

[snownado]

All of this rain is just going to make for one of the muggiest Summers we've seen in a long time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All of this rain is just going to make for one of the muggiest Summers we've seen in a long time.

Having a wet humid ground can actually be beneficial in avoiding massive/dry heat ridges from sitting over top of you.