Texas Spring 2024

[snownado]

A slightly slower frontal/dryline passage or slightly earlier intiation could certainly make a big difference for severe t'storm coverage in DFW today.

But that being said, I think the current SPC outlook covers the potential quite well since models have a tendency to be a bit too gung ho with firing off convection in these conditional setups. I'd definitely be keeping my eye to the sky (and I'd have my cars in the garage) if I were in Forney or Rockwall though.

[Cpv17]

A slightly slower frontal/dryline passage or slightly earlier intiation could certainly make a big difference for severe t'storm coverage in DFW today.

But that being said, I think the current SPC outlook covers the potential quite well since models have a tendency to be a bit too gung ho with firing off convection in these conditional setups. I'd definitely be keeping my eye to the sky (and I'd have my cars in the garage) if I were in Forney or Rockwall though.

Tomorrow looks even worse for you guys up there.

[snownado]

A slightly slower frontal/dryline passage or slightly earlier intiation could certainly make a big difference for severe t'storm coverage in DFW today.

But that being said, I think the current SPC outlook covers the potential quite well since models have a tendency to be a bit too gung ho with firing off convection in these conditional setups. I'd definitely be keeping my eye to the sky (and I'd have my cars in the garage) if I were in Forney or Rockwall though.

Tomorrow looks even worse for you guys up there.

I haven't even been paying attention to Thursday.

It will be also dependent on what happens today of course. If today overachieves, that would likely place the effective front further SE.

[WacoWx]

HRRR shows development at 6p tonight in DFW. Same with the NAM.

[cheezyWXguy]

A slightly slower frontal/dryline passage or slightly earlier intiation could certainly make a big difference for severe t'storm coverage in DFW today.

But that being said, I think the current SPC outlook covers the potential quite well since models have a tendency to be a bit too gung ho with firing off convection in these conditional setups. I'd definitely be keeping my eye to the sky (and I'd have my cars in the garage) if I were in Forney or Rockwall though.

Tomorrow looks even worse for you guys up there.

I haven't even been paying attention to Thursday.

It will be also dependent on what happens today of course. If today overachieves, that would likely place the effective front further SE.

Agreed in concept but there is some potential for the southern half of dfw to be under risk both days. The HRRR has been one of the more aggressive models on today’s coverage and still shows cells firing tomorrow across the area. I will say that if coverage is notably higher today than what it is depicting we would probably luck out tomorrow

[rwfromkansas]

There's a slight chance of maybe something in DFW today, but I'm more concerned about tomorrow, especially for me in Tarrant. I am too west for today likely.

[rwfromkansas]

The latest HRRR is dropping the storm over DFW and only shows far NE TX.

[snownado]

The latest HRRR is dropping the storm over DFW and only shows far NE TX.

Come again?

[rwfromkansas]

It was further west earlier (NAM shows a lot still over DFW): https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[bubba hotep]

SPC update for tomorrow, primarily driven by wind and hail threat

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, that goes pretty far south. I hate hail during the day since my car isn't at the garage.

[cstrunk]

It is disgustingly humid/hazy outside today in Longview. 83F/76F and 79% humidity at 1 pm.

[snownado]

Tornado Watch incoming for parts of North and NE Texas...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0701.html

[Brent]

First day it's felt like summer and I'm already over it. This humidity feels like the beach without the beach

[WacoWx]

Tornado watch issued for OK/AR.

Cell popping sw of DFW. Nothing significant, though...yet.

[cstrunk]

18z HRRR smashes the DFW area tomorrow afternoon and portions of central/eastern Texas later on. This afternoon could be interesting for central/NE TX.

[rwfromkansas]

Geez, 95 IMBY with a 68 dewpoint so the dryline is definitely still west of me even here in western Tarrant. So, there's a chance this could go further west still. Yikes if so.

Where can one see the "convective temperature" where the cap would break easily?

[Edwards Limestone]

CAPE pushing 5500+ over Bell County

[rwfromkansas]

Both the NAM and HRRR do look nasty tomorrow for DFW east. NAM has a ridiculously massive supercell in the middle of the day.

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0210.html

Well, there's the watch for Texas.