Texas Spring 2024

[bubba hotep]

Starting to get some clearing here in Norman. Gonna be a long day

I think the southern half of the High is the area to really watch.

[Texas Snowman]

PDS Tornado Watch has been issued. Actually nudges into a small area of northwestern North Texas from Childress to Wichita Falls…

 https://x.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1787559603686736247

[rwfromkansas]

My hometown is in the PDS watch....on the northern end of moderate. Hope this ends up being less than it could be. This has been the year of the tornado after some years that were rather meh.

[Texas Snowman]

“… Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely…”


——————

Tornado Watch Number 189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas
Western and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely

SUMMARY...Explosive thunderstorm development is forecast this
afternoon along and east of a north to south oriented dryline.
Given a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, intense
supercells are expected to evolve. These storms are forecast to
move east across the Watch area this afternoon through the late
evening. The possibility exists for regenerative supercell
development over central Oklahoma this evening. Initially large to
giant hail is forecast with the initial supercell activity before
the tornado risk increases. Intense tornadoes are probable
especially as the atmosphere becomes very favorable for tornadoes
late this afternoon and continuing through the evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Hutchinson
KS to 50 miles south southeast of Fort Sill OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 188...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Smith

[Texas Snowman]

Wording today is strong. Hopefully this greatly underperforms and doesn’t live up to its advanced billing from SPC and NWS…

 https://x.com/nws/status/1787562374381072859

[Cpv17]

And we now have takeoff. Supercells are starting to fire up now.

[Texas Snowman]

People in the Red River counties of North Texas (including me), pay attention this afternoon and evening…

——————

 https://x.com/nwsfortworth/status/1787559057005666424

[ElectricStorm]

Most model guidance seems to be trending towards a less discrete storm mode across OK this afternoon/evening which in theory would limit the strong tornado threat. However NWS Norman has said earlier they don't think this will end up being linear. So interested to see how this plays out

I'm going with the NWS on this one

[txtwister78]

Another Tornado Watch further north. Multiple watches up now from Kansas into Nebraska and far western Iowa/Missouri.

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1787585054753075550

[Brent]

Most model guidance seems to be trending towards a less discrete storm mode across OK this afternoon/evening which in theory would limit the strong tornado threat. However NWS Norman has said earlier they don't think this will end up being linear. So interested to see how this plays out

I'm going with the NWS on this one

I mean I guess anything is possible and it would be better than the alternative but the CAM's have also been horrible this year from what I've heard so I can see why the NWS is skeptical

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/invertv_dcape/status/1787584701710172628

[ElectricStorm]

Most model guidance seems to be trending towards a less discrete storm mode across OK this afternoon/evening which in theory would limit the strong tornado threat. However NWS Norman has said earlier they don't think this will end up being linear. So interested to see how this plays out

I'm going with the NWS on this one

I mean I guess anything is possible and it would be better than the alternative but the CAM's have also been horrible this year from what I've heard so I can see why the NWS is skeptical

Oh yeah CAMs have been pretty questionable this year for sure

[bubba hotep]

Looks like there will be a CI attempt out near Aspermont, TX.

[cheezyWXguy]

Uhhh that Canton, ok storm better go warned real fast…

Edit: think what I was was seeing was a side beam false positive. Coincided with a circular cc drop, but probably nothing on the ground yet since it disappeared. Clearly I’m on edge for this event.

Edit 2: cc drop matches a genuine velocity signature on the Putnam cell, but after my misfire above I’m hesitant to call it

Edit 3: Putnam cell warned, I’ll settle for 1 out of 2. Hope everyone in the risk area is prepared, tonight is going to be rough

[bubba hotep]

Looks like there will be a CI attempt out near Aspermont, TX.

This one failed. Looks to be a more significant attempt out near Childress, TX.

[bubba hotep]

Uhhh that Canton, ok storm better go warned real fast…

Edit: think what I was was seeing was a side beam false positive. Coincided with a circular cc drop, but probably nothing on the ground yet since it disappeared. Clearly I’m on edge for this event.

Edit 2: cc drop matches a genuine velocity signature on the Putnam cell, but after my misfire above I’m hesitant to call it

Edit 3: Putnam cell warned, I’ll settle for 1 out of 2. Hope everyone in the risk area is prepared, tonight is going to be rough

So far, spacing on the Oklahoma storms appears to be crowded enough to keep things in check. That's not to say things are "over," but glad we haven't seen a runaway discrete storm so far this evening.

[ElectricStorm]

Uhhh that Canton, ok storm better go warned real fast…

Edit: think what I was was seeing was a side beam false positive. Coincided with a circular cc drop, but probably nothing on the ground yet since it disappeared. Clearly I’m on edge for this event.

Edit 2: cc drop matches a genuine velocity signature on the Putnam cell, but after my misfire above I’m hesitant to call it

Edit 3: Putnam cell warned, I’ll settle for 1 out of 2. Hope everyone in the risk area is prepared, tonight is going to be rough

So far, spacing on the Oklahoma storms appears to be crowded enough to keep things in check. That's not to say things are "over," but glad we haven't seen a runaway discrete storm so far this evening.

And it seems the ones that have been able to get going a bit more have been struggling with either broad and/or multiple rotations. The Hennessey storm is looking dangerous though and we're still just now starting to get to better parameters until after midnight so still a long way to go.

[cheezyWXguy]

Uhhh that Canton, ok storm better go warned real fast…

Edit: think what I was was seeing was a side beam false positive. Coincided with a circular cc drop, but probably nothing on the ground yet since it disappeared. Clearly I’m on edge for this event.

Edit 2: cc drop matches a genuine velocity signature on the Putnam cell, but after my misfire above I’m hesitant to call it

Edit 3: Putnam cell warned, I’ll settle for 1 out of 2. Hope everyone in the risk area is prepared, tonight is going to be rough

So far, spacing on the Oklahoma storms appears to be crowded enough to keep things in check. That's not to say things are "over," but glad we haven't seen a runaway discrete storm so far this evening.

And it seems the ones that have been able to get going a bit more have been struggling with either broad and/or multiple rotations. The Hennessey storm is looking dangerous though and we're still just now starting to get to better parameters until after midnight so still a long way to go.

Yep it’s great that the crowdedness has kept things in check so far, but as you said, it’s still early. On that note, the Arapaho cell is the one that really has my attention since it’s the least impeded at the moment

[ElectricStorm]

Tulsa metro now in the high risk. First one in that area since 2012...

Conditions continue to become more favorable if any cells can remain discrete.

[bubba hotep]

So far, spacing on the Oklahoma storms appears to be crowded enough to keep things in check. That's not to say things are "over," but glad we haven't seen a runaway discrete storm so far this evening.

And it seems the ones that have been able to get going a bit more have been struggling with either broad and/or multiple rotations. The Hennessey storm is looking dangerous though and we're still just now starting to get to better parameters until after midnight so still a long way to go.

Yep it’s great that the crowdedness has kept things in check so far, but as you said, it’s still early. On that note, the Arapaho cell is the one that really has my attention since it’s the least impeded at the moment

Currently, it being the southern most cell, it does seem to pose the greatest threat.

The Covington cell has been warned for a long time and has looked impressive on radar. However, given the number of chasers out today, seems like we would have seen pics of a tornado or damage by this point if it was on the ground.