Texas Spring 2024

[WacoWx]

HRRR has the north half of the storms that form continue off to the northeast, and the southern half take off to the southeast. What can cause storms that initiate in the same general area to go in 2 different directions?

[bubba hotep]

That one storm is turning right, I'm surprised it's not Tor Warned. Looks to have some rotation.

North of Graham

It's probably not surface based but can still produce large hail.

[txtwister78]

That one storm is turning right, I'm surprised it's not Tor Warned. Looks to have some rotation.

North of Graham

Has some mid-level rotation associated with it but doesn't look to be anything low level at this time. Winds out of Dallas Love are out of the NE so better odds for surface-based storms over time this afternoon will exist from Waco to Austin later today. Dews drop significantly north/NW of DFW and so the metroplex is right on the edge which is probably why these storms developed this morning and why you have elevated storms north and the surface-based supercell just south of that near Bryson/Jacksboro.

[cstrunk]

That one storm is turning right, I'm surprised it's not Tor Warned. Looks to have some rotation.

North of Graham

It's probably not surface based but can still produce large hail.

That was my thought as well. The storm is north of the quasi-stationary boundary and in an area of lower dewpoints/surface instability. Definitely going to be a hail threat.

[cstrunk]

Someone mentioned this on another website I visit, but any storm that crosses/rides the boundary along/near I-20 will need to be watched for potential tornado threat.

[cheezyWXguy]

Someone mentioned this on another website I visit, but any storm that crosses/rides the boundary along/near I-20 will need to be watched for potential tornado threat.

That’s my concern too, first thing I thought of when I saw the SPC’s mesoscale discussion for the area. That, and if there’s any remnant boundaries in the area from the storms going on now

[snownado]

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties.

I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

[rwfromkansas]

How can you tell if it’s surface-based? They all look good on tilt 1 of the radar.

[HockeyTx82]

I guess there's the dew points. Those are awfully low to have that kind of storm blowing over them

[snownado]

How can you tell if it’s surface-based? They all look good on tilt 1 of the radar.

You can't really tell from the radar. You have to go off the ground reports.

[txtwister78]

How can you tell if it’s surface-based? They all look good on tilt 1 of the radar.

Moisture contrast (dewpoints), wind direction/boundaries in the area, echo tops etc.

[rwfromkansas]

My DP has risen significantly through the day from 56 at midnight to 68 now.

[snownado]

My DP has risen significantly through the day from 56 at midnight to 68 now.

Also getting some breaks in the clouds here on Plano.

[cheezyWXguy]

How can you tell if it’s surface-based? They all look good on tilt 1 of the radar.

The stationary front is draped w-e across I-20. That’ll be the dividing line between surface based to the south and elevated to the north

[txtwister78]

CAPE already up to 4k south of DFW. Attention will shift further south later this afternoon for anything that can fire in that environment. Look out for monster hail and perhaps an isolated Tornado threat.

[bubba hotep]

Coverage seems to be more than the 12z runs were showing.

[rwfromkansas]

Tornado Watch.

[snownado]

I'm noticing early on the cells developing back out towards Abilene are already trying to take a right turn...

[WacoWx]

That storm east of Abilene is abt to be a Tor Warned storm. Heck of an outflow boundary too.

[captainbarbossa19]

How can you tell if it’s surface-based? They all look good on tilt 1 of the radar.

Moisture contrast (dewpoints), wind direction/boundaries in the area, echo tops etc.

I mainly just look at LCL heights based on modeled data and observed soundings. 18z observed sounding at DFW shows the LCL at around 900 mb.