STORM2K

Oh my lord...

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1778528311490359440

I have concerns about potential cloud cover and timing issues on Monday that could limit the overall potential some and make it more of a nocturnal event. Still would likely be a significant event but I'm not really seeing anything like a 4/14/12 type outbreak yet. Although still being this far out things can still change and if we end up with better daytime heating we could be in for some bigger problems. Still could go either way at this point.

Fox 4 was like it's April and these things happen this time of year.

Click bait X posts of a single run or analog do not make an event.

What did we all do before model access and social media in Spring?

Are storms that much stronger and more damaging or are we just more aware because of technology and as we build more homes in areas that statistically get severe weather we just hype up OMG global warming and thing are getting worse......

You build on the coast is it the Hurricanes fault your house gets flooded because we need to drive more electric vehicles and eat bugs?

ElectricStorm wrote:I have concerns about potential cloud cover and timing issues on Monday that could limit the overall potential some and make it more of a nocturnal event. Still would likely be a significant event but I'm not really seeing anything like a 4/14/12 type outbreak yet. Although still being this far out things can still change and if we end up with better daytime heating we could be in for some bigger problems. Still could go either way at this point.

Yeah i mean yesterday people were talking about May 1999 and I think we went a tad overboard. Not saying it couldn't trend into a bigger deal but I see plenty of ways it can fail right now considering the hype. It's April in the Plains

Brent wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:I have concerns about potential cloud cover and timing issues on Monday that could limit the overall potential some and make it more of a nocturnal event. Still would likely be a significant event but I'm not really seeing anything like a 4/14/12 type outbreak yet. Although still being this far out things can still change and if we end up with better daytime heating we could be in for some bigger problems. Still could go either way at this point.

Yeah i mean yesterday people were talking about May 1999 and I think we went a tad overboard. Not saying it couldn't trend into a bigger deal but I see plenty of ways it can fail right now considering the hype. It's April in the Plains

Yeah lots of people focusing on 1 or 2 CIPS analogs when the the other 12-13 are way lesser events. Seems like 5/3 shows up on the analog at least once per year and it never happens.

That being said I do think this will still be a substantial event and things could always uptrend (or downtrend) but we really won't know the exact magnitude of the threat until the day of.

84 hour NAM is in range now and it's showing a high-end environment, though further north than other models. It's hard to trust the NAM at this range though but something to watch.

Will be interesting to see if SPC pulls the trigger on a rare Day 3 moderate. I would probably keep it an enhanced for another day until CAMs start getting into range but I think a moderate could still be justified.

Looks like the biggest threat area Monday is looking like W/NW OK and SW KS and the eastern parts of the panhandles. I think we'll see the enhanced risk shifted west a bit and expanded north. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Day 3 moderate but considering how rare those are they may end up leaving it at enhanced for another day. I would probably downgrade OKC metro areas to slight risk for now since the highest threat area seems to be further west but we'll see.

We'll see what CAMs have in about a day or so

ElectricStorm wrote:Looks like the biggest threat area Monday is looking like W/NW OK and SW KS and the eastern parts of the panhandles. I think we'll see the enhanced risk shifted west a bit and expanded north. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Day 3 moderate but considering how rare those are they may end up leaving it at enhanced for another day. I would probably downgrade OKC metro areas to slight risk for now since the highest threat area seems to be further west but we'll see.

We'll see what CAMs have in about a day or so

That’s not really an area where you’ll see a moderate risk though. I mean, how often do you see a moderate risk in SW Kansas? I can’t recall one.

 https://twitter.com/evan_bentley/status/1779253422878785831




Good thread here about potential moisture and cloud cover issues for Monday. Really won't know the true severity of the event until the day of, but seeing how much cloud cover there is on the models, I'm a little less bullish on tornado potential than I was previously although I still think the ceiling is decently high if we end up with more clearing than expected. Leaning towards Tuesday being the bigger day for now.

So far this spring the overall hemispheric pattern hasn't been that favorable for severe outbreaks. Going into mid April the Spring pattern has been blocky. It's been more frontal driven than dry-line firing. Think lagging Nino pattern is maybe one factor.

85 degrees today warmest day since February. Tomorrow may get close to 90

Really not feeling too hyped about the severe weather over here Monday into Tuesday... Just hoping we can get a decent rain

Then a pretty big front showing up next weekend

Updated outlook for Day 2 with just a 5% tornado area. OKC metro downgraded to slight. Yet another setup that looks great a few days out and rapidly downtrends to crap a couple days before, but that's par for the course around here since 2012. But that's what happens when 90% of these troughs move slower than modeled initially. Still could be a couple localized areas of significant severe potential though and considering this should be a mostly nocturnal event I hope everyone is still paying attention and has a way to get warnings.

12z CAMs seem unimpressed with SPCs ENH location

Will it even rain for real after all this hype

Brent wrote:Will it even rain for real after all this hype

Been raining good down here.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:Will it even rain for real after all this hype

Been raining good down here.

We've fallen below normal for the year here and I'm not seeing much to get excited about

ElectricStorm wrote:Updated outlook for Day 2 with just a 5% tornado area. OKC metro downgraded to slight. Yet another setup that looks great a few days out and rapidly downtrends to crap a couple days before, but that's par for the course around here since 2012. But that's what happens when 90% of these troughs move slower than modeled initially. Still could be a couple localized areas of significant severe potential though and considering this should be a mostly nocturnal event I hope everyone is still paying attention and has a way to get warnings.
https://i.imgur.com/QUdjNWR.gif

IDK...but that seems like good news from where I sit. Hopefully you guys up there get some rain out of this, but anytime you can lower the threat of tornadoes and large hail, that seems like a win to me.

txtwister78 wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:Updated outlook for Day 2 with just a 5% tornado area. OKC metro downgraded to slight. Yet another setup that looks great a few days out and rapidly downtrends to crap a couple days before, but that's par for the course around here since 2012. But that's what happens when 90% of these troughs move slower than modeled initially. Still could be a couple localized areas of significant severe potential though and considering this should be a mostly nocturnal event I hope everyone is still paying attention and has a way to get warnings.
https://i.imgur.com/QUdjNWR.gif

IDK...but that seems like good news from where I sit. Hopefully you guys up there get some rain out of this, but anytime you can lower the threat of tornadoes and large hail, that seems like a win to me.

Oh I'm definitely not upset the severe weather fell apart but like I want some widespread rain up here. We barely had any last week when y'all did

After looking over 0z models I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10# tornado area added for KS at some point. If any cell can get going it could be a strong tornado producer, although the overall number of cells might be somewhat limited.

On top of the severe weather setup falling apart, with yet another late-season PV split and Greenland Block developing, we're looking at yet another "cold" snap (not cold enough for a frost/freeze, but definitely well-below normal temps with highs in the 50s/60s) for many locations this upcoming weekend.

It doesn't look like much will happen at all in our region (negligible rainfall as well) until the front late week. Even that is questionable, but the cooler air is the story.