Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19261 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:36 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
540 AM AST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A mainly fair and stable weather pattern will continue
to prevail across the forecast area with some passing showers
possible. Breezy.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

A mid level ridge will hold north of the local area for the next few
days, limiting the development of deep convection across the local
islands. There is also a strong surface high pressure the central
Atlantic, causing strong ENE winds across the local area today and
on Tuesday, decreasing slightly on Wednesday. The strong winds today
will likely be between 15 and 20 MPH with areas of occasional 25
MPH, especially over the local waters. The wind gusts could reach 35
MPH briefly. This strong wind will cause the marine conditions to
continue to be hazardous and also, once combined with the dry air
moving in, it increased the fire danger across the southeast coastal
plains, and therefore a Red Flag Warning was issued for that area.

The local weather is expected to be generally guided by brief
showers embedded in the trades with some showers developing over PR
due to local effects, but the amounts are expected to be relatively
minimal. The overall moisture is expected to be rather low today,
with precipitable water values expected to be near 1 inch or
slightly above, depending on the exact area; which is drier than
normal, near the 25th percentile for this time of year. Similar
precipitable water values expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Therefore, the rainfall expected, although it may cover some areas
across the north and eastern PR as well as the interior and western
sections in the afternoons, the amounts and duration are both not
expected to be too significant. But, it will be breezy and the fire
danger will continue to increase across the southern coastal plains
through the early part of this week. The marine and surf zone
conditions will also be hazardous due to this wind.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

A mid level ridge will hold across the forecast area much of the
forecast period weakening early next week as a broad upper level
trough develops across the central Atlantic and amplifies into the
eastern Caribbean. High pressure systems north of the area will
continue to yield a moderate to fresh east northeast wind flow
during the next several days. Latest guidance continues to
indicate patches of low level moisture moving across the forecast
area at times through the forecast cycle. Therefore, continue to
expect a generally fair and stable weather pattern with some
passing showers across north and east Puerto Rico as well Vieques,
Culebra, and the USVI particularly in the late evening and early
morning hours. Seasonable temperatures to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with VCSH
expected in SCT SHRA through the forecast period. Winds from the ENE
at around 15 to 20KT with higher gusts and sea breeze variations at
TJPS until about 12/23Z. Winds decreasing slightly after 13/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to increase slightly
throughout the day. A few gusts may be as high as 35 kt. A high
risk of rip currents will be common on most beaches. A high surf
advisory will remain in effect through Tuesday. Winds and seas
will begin to diminish around mid week, but small craft advisories
will continue in most zones through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 30 30 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19262 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:16 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
412 PM AST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A mid to upper level ridge will cause a stable and fair weather
pattern through the end of the week. Although a stable weather
pattern will prevail there is a possibility for a few trade wind
showers with strong east northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph with
higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...

High pressure in the central Atlantic will shift into the western
Atlantic and sink south during the period losing almost 13 mb in the
process. This will allow winds to relax somewhat in the process.

A 500 mb trough extends into the tropical Atlantic near 50 west from
low pressure almost 600 miles north of the Cape Verde Islands. From
there it extends back across the Caribbean just south of Puerto
Rico. Convection with higher tops can be seen close to the
vorticity maximums in the trough which also coincide with a
temperature trough. Some tiny tops of 30 to 35 kft are also forming
over interior Puerto Rico as this is being written. Temperatures at
500 mb are seen to drop off to as little as minus 12 degrees at
13/12Z. This cooler air will enhance instability just as a maximum
in moisture just below 500 mb moves by. Since mid-level are already
relatively dry, this will enhance shower activity only slightly but
will keep showers likely during the next several nights in north and
northeast Puerto Rico and all the islands east of there. The GFS
shows showers likely through Thursday in eastern Puerto Rico.
Amounts should range from 0.10 to 0.20 inches, but higher amounts
may occur on the windward slopes. Winds will not diminish until
after Tuesday. Although winds will subside somewhat each night,
stronger winds will return during the mornings. A high wind advisory
may therefore be necessary Tuesday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Two features will control the long term period the first is the
mid to upper level ridge that remains anchored across the region
and the other item is the low level moisture that will move in
periodically from the east. The ridge of high pressure will cause
fresh moderate east northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph also
occasionally trade wind showers will be possible mainly across
north and northeast Puerto Rico as well as Vieques, Culebra and
the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning and afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds will prevail, but brief MVFR is expected in
TNCM/TKPK thru 13/13Z. Gusty winds will cont thru 13/22Z, but gusts
will be less frequent btwn 13/02-10Z. Sfc winds E 15-25kt with gust
to 40 kt till nightfall when winds will be 10-20 kt. Then winds
resume aft 13/12Z. Sct brief SHRA mainly USVI/nrn PR. Max winds WNW-
NW 60 kt FL400-460 til 13/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain hazardous through Wednesday with winds
of 20 to 25 kts with gusts of 30 kts. A high risk of rip currents
still remains for north, southwest, and southeast facing beaches
of Puerto Rico along with Culebra, Vieques and St. Croix. A high
surf advisory will remain in effect through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 82 / 40 40 40 40
STT 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19263 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:28 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy to windy conditions throughout the day.
Continue to expect passing showers along the northern and
eastern sections of Puerto Rico as well as the US Virgin
islands. Hazardous seas will continue to prevail much of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

A mid level trough is extending from the northeast Atlantic all
the way to the Caribbean. There is also an upper trough that
extends from a low pressure in the NE Atlantic to the Caribbean.
However, instability associated with this trough should be minimal
as we would be in the convergent side of the trough. There is
also a strong surface high pressure the central Atlantic, causing
strong ENE winds across the local area today, decreasing slightly
on Wednesday. The strong winds today will likely be between 15 and
25 MPH with wind gusts that could reach 35 MPH briefly. There is
a wind advisory in effect until 6PM today. This strong wind will
cause the marine conditions to continue to be hazardous and also,
once combined with the dry air over the local area, it increased
the fire danger across the south coastal plains.

The local weather is expected to be generally a typical pattern
for the time of year, which mainly has brief showers embedded in
the trades with some showers developing over PR due to local
effects. However, given the lack of upper level instability and
limited moisture, the rainfall accumulations are not expected to
be significant widespread. The overall moisture is expected to be
relatively low today once again, with precipitable water values
expected to be just over 1 inch, which is still near the 25th
percentile for this time of year. Similar precipitable water
values expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

A mid level ridge will hold across the forecast area through the
forecast period. At lower levels, high pressure systems north of
the area will continue to yield a moderate to fresh east northeast
wind flow which will bring patches of low level moisture at times.
Therefore, continue to expect a generally fair and stable weather
pattern with some passing showers across north and east Puerto
Rico as well Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI particularly in the
late evening and early morning hours. Seasonable temperatures to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with
VCSH expected in ISOLD/SCT SHRA for the next 24 hours. Winds from
the ENE at around 15 to 20KT with higher gusts, possibly reaching
30KT, expected. Winds at TJPS will be from the E to ESE during
the day. Winds decreasing slightly after 13/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...Hazardous seas between 8 and 12 feet and ENE winds
between 15-25 kt with possible gusts in the mid 30s to continue
today. There is a high surf advisory for the northern beaches of
Puerto Rico and St. Croix through this afternoon. Life threatening
rip currents will continue to prevail across most of the beaches
through the end of the work week. Marine conditions will slowly
improve by the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 72 84 72 / 30 20 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19264 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:16 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
337 PM AST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions will start to decrease later this evening with
winds falling to 15 to 20 mph. Mid to upper level ridges will
maintain their foothold over the caribbean and local islands
during the long and short term periods thus creating seasonable
weather with a few trade wind showers mainly during the morning
and afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

At the surface a ridge of high pressure is currently over the
region and will remain over the area through Thursday thus the
low level flow will be east to northeast with winds ranging from
15 to 20 mph. Remaining at the low levels tropical moisture will
periodically move across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin island
during the short term period.

At the mid to upper levels a trough is positioned in the far east
Atlantic waters and will not have an effect on our local weather
but several upper level ridges will build across the region thus
creating a seasonable weather pattern with a few showers embedded
in the trades.


.LONG TERM...

A mid to upper level ridge will maintain its hold over the
caribbean waters and local islands. At the lower levels a high
pressure system to the east of Florida will produce moderate to fresh
east northeast wind flow which will bring patches of low level
moisture at times. Therefore, continue to expect a generally fair
and stable weather pattern with some passing showers across north
and east Puerto Rico as well Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI
particularly in the late evening and early morning hours.
Seasonable temperatures to continue.


&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions will continue to prevail across
all TAF sites through the forecast period. VCSH can be expected
across TIST, TISX and TJSJ. Low level winds will be mainly east at
15 to 20 kts with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...

Hazardous seas between 8 and 12 feet with east to northeast winds
ranging from 15 to 22 kts. Life threatening rip currents will
continue to prevail across most of the beaches through the end of
the work week. Marine conditions will slowly improve by the end of
the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 40 40 40 40
STT 72 84 72 84 / 20 20 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19265 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:50 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure north of the region will
maintain breezy conditions across the area today. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later this evening through Thursday
as the local high pressure gradient relaxes and allows the prevailing
winds to decrease to 15 to 20 mph. Mid to upper level ridge will
continue to hold over the northeastern Caribbean during the entire
period,supporting a seasonable weather pattern with mostly fair
weather skies and pleasant temperatures except for the occasional
passing early morning and late evening showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A mid level trough is extending from the northeast and central
Atlantic all the way to the Caribbean. An upper trough also extends
from a low pressure across the northeast Atlantic to the Caribbean.
However, the effects of these features over the forecast areas are
minimal. A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will
continue to induce a strong east northeast wind flow across the
local area today, decreasing slightly tonight and Thursday. The
winds today will likely be between 15 and 25 MPH with wind gusts
that could reach 30 mph briefly. This strong trade winds will
continue to cause hazardous marine conditions across most of the
coastal waters. The local wind in combination with the dry air over
the region is expected to increase the fire danger across the south
coastal plains of Puerto Rico Today.

Brief passing showers embedded in the trades will move from time to
time across the local islands today and during the next several
days, affecting mainly the northern and eastern sections of Puerto
Rico during the night and morning hours with some showers expected
to develop across western Puerto Rico each afternoon. However, given
the lack of upper level instability and limited moisture, the
rainfall accumulations are not expected to be significant
widespread.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday of next week...
A mid to upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Caribbean
waters and extend across the local region. The low level high
pressure system spread across the Atlantic and extending across
the region will maintain moderate to fairly strong east northeast
trade winds. This will continue to aid in bringing occasional patches
of low level moisture across the islands and coastal waters. Therefore,
expect an overall fair and stable weather pattern with periods of passing
showers mainly across the north and east coastal sections of Puerto
Rico as well Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI particularly during the
late evening and early morning hours. Mostly fair weather skies and
breezy conditions will prevail during the daytime hours. Seasonable
temperatures con be expected during the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
forecast period. Trade wind showers in an ENE wind flow will continue
at times to move across the Leeward/USVI/Northern PR terminals. Previous
14/00z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds of 12-30 knots below FL150
and between 25-46 knots up to FL300. Sfc wnds between 5-15 kts will
incr to 15-20 kts aft 14/14z with ocnl higher gusts during til 14/22z.

&&

.MARINE...Hazardous seas between 8 and 12 feet will persist with east
to northeast winds ranging from 15 to 22 kts. Marine conditions will
slowly improve by Thursday and Friday. However, Small craft advisories
will continue in effect across most of the regional waters.

Life threatening rip current risks will also prevail across most of
the local beaches of PR, adjacent islands and the USVI through the
end of the work week. Please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast
issued by WFO San Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 84 74 / 50 40 40 30
STT 84 72 84 73 / 30 10 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19266 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:46 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure north of the region spread across
the central Atlantic, will continue to promote moderate to strong
east northeast winds across the local area. Patches of shallow moisture
will bring brief showers across the local area from time to time for
the next several days. Mostly fair weather conditions are expected
to prevail, especially during the daytime hours. Marine and surf zone
conditions will remain hazardous for portions of the local waters,
passages and beaches during the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to
dominate the local weather conditions today through at least Saturday.
Winds are expected to slowly decrease Today and Friday, where winds
between 10-20 mph winds can be expected. Overall available moisture
will be normal to below normal. The local wind in combination with
the overall dry airmass over the region is expected to elevate the
risk of fire danger across the south coastal plains of Puerto Rico
Today.

There will be patches of moisture moving in, causing brief passing
showers across the area. These showers will mainly affect the local
waters, USVI, Vieques and Culebra, and the north and eastern sections
of PR, particularly in the morning, evening and overnight hours. During
the daytime hours, some cloudiness could occur over PR due to local
effects and some showers are expected to develop across the interior
into the southwestern sections of PR. There is no upper level forcing
in support, so the showers that do affect any one area are not expected
to produce very significant amounts of rain, in most cases less than
a quarter of an inch of rain is to be expected. This pattern is expected
for the rest of the workweek and until the upcoming weekend. Seasonable
temperatures will prevail each day

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
The mid to upper level ridge will remain anchored over the northeastern
Caribbean through most of the period. The persistent low level high
pressure system spread across the Atlantic and extending across the
region, will maintain moderate to strong east northeast trade winds.
This will continue to transport occasional patches of low level moisture
across the region from time to time. Expect an overall fair and
stable weather pattern with periods of passing showers mainly
across the north and east coastal sections of Puerto Rico as well
Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI during the late evening and early
morning hours. Mostly fair weather skies and overall breezy
conditions will prevail during the daytime hours. By Monday and
through Tuesday of next week recent model guidance suggests east
to north east winds to increase once again. This will result in
windy conditions (winds 20 to 25 mph+) across the region. Near
seasonable temperatures and overall cool advective pattern is
forecast during the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
forecast period. Trade wind showers will continue at times to move
across the Leeward/USVI/Northern PR terminals. Latest TJSJ sounding
indicated an ENE winds at 10-32 kts all the way from the surface to
around 25k feet, becoming WNW and stronger above 25k feet.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy and hazardous seas between 6 and 10 feet will
continue across the regional waters. Seas are expected to slowly
diminish through Friday, but small craft advisories will remain in
effect through at least Friday due to the moderate to locally fresh
winds and choppy seas.

Life threatening rip currents will continue across most of the
beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands where there is
a moderate to high risk of rip currents, except for some beaches
in the west and south coasts of Puerto Rico. Please refer to the
latest Surf Zone forecast issued by WFO San Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 73 / 50 30 30 30
STT 83 72 83 72 / 50 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19267 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:48 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 PM AST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Pressure gradient over the local area is relaxing a
little, which is causing the winds to diminish slightly and will
hold steady through the weekend. Patches of moisture will continue
passing over the area, bringing scattered to locally numerous,
but brief showers, especially during the evening into the
following mornings for the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

East to east northeast winds are still expected across the local
area for the next several days. It will be somewhat breezy for the
rest of today with winds at 15-20mph with occasional gusts, winds
decreasing to 5-15mph starting tonight and continuing into this
weekend. This is due to a slight relaxing of the local pressure
gradient from a surface high pressure to the north of the local
area. Overall available moisture will continue to be below normal,
but patches of moisture are moving in, causing scattered to
numerous, but brief showers across the area. These showers will
affect the local waters, USVI, Vieques and Culebra, and the north
and eastern sections of PR, particularly in the evening and early
morning hours. During the daytime hours, most of the cloud
and shower development is expected across the interior into
western PR, especially in the afternoon. The upper levels are not
particularly unstable over the local area, so the showers that do
affect any one area are not expected to produce very significant
amounts of rain, the same forecast remains, less than a quarter
of an inch of rain is to be expected at any given day through this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

.From previous discussion...

The mid to upper level ridge will remain anchored over the
northeastern Caribbean through most of the period. The persistent
low level high pressure system spread across the Atlantic and
extending across the region, will maintain moderate to strong east
northeast trade winds. This will continue to transport occasional
patches of low level moisture across the region from time to
time. Expect an overall fair and stable weather pattern with
periods of passing showers mainly across the north and east
coastal sections of Puerto Rico as well Vieques, Culebra, and the
USVI during the late evening and early morning hours. Mostly fair
weather skies and overall breezy conditions will prevail during
the daytime hours. By Monday and through Tuesday of next week
recent model guidance suggests east to north east winds to
increase once again. This will result in windy conditions (winds
20 to 25 mph+) across the region. Near seasonable temperatures and
overall cool advective pattern is forecast during the entire
period.


&&

.AVIATION...The easterly winds continues at 15 to 20 knots with
higher gusts. Winds are fcst to drop around 10 kt aft 15/23z,
increasing once again around 15 kt aft 16/13z. SHRA/-SHRA will move
from time to time across TJSJ/TIST/TJBQ. TJMZ can expect VCSH
between 15/18-22z. Clouds embedded in the trades will produce BKN-
OVC ceilings btwn FL020-FL080 at TJSJ/TIST/TKPK/TNCM thru the
overnight hrs.


&&

.MARINE...Seas and surf zones continue to be hazardous. Seas are
still up to 8 feet and there is a moderate to high risk of rip
currents across many of the beaches in PR and the USVI. Small
craft advisories continue until Friday, then seas subside a
little. However, seas will once again become hazardous by Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 60 30 30 30
STT 72 83 72 83 / 60 30 30 30

&&
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19268 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:41 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
336 AM AST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Pressure gradient over the local area is relaxing a
little, which is causing the winds to diminish slightly and will
hold steady through the weekend. Patches of moisture will continue
passing over the area, bringing scattered to locally numerous,
but brief showers, especially during the evening and morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Recent FAA radar and satellite images showed a large cluster of low
level clouds with embedded showers moving across the region during
the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts were generally around a
quarter of an inch of rain with the heaviest showers. Minor ponding
of waters on roadways and in low lying areas is expected to continue
through the early morning hours. Expect conditions to gradually
improve by late morning with decreasing cloudiness and mostly fair
weather skies through the rest of the day. The exception will be
over parts of the interior and west to southwest sections of PR
where locally and diurnally induced showers may form and stream
westward.

On Saturday and Sunday...East to northeast winds will persist across
the local area for the next several days. Breezy conditions expected
once again by late Saturday through Sunday, as the surface high will
strengthen north of the region leading to increasing trade winds
between 15-25 mph with occasional gusts. Patches of low level
moisture with associated showers in the easterly trades will
continue to move across the region but is expected to become more
frequent by Sunday as the winds increase. These showers will affect
the local waters, USVI, Vieques and Culebra, and the north and
eastern sections of PR, particularly in the evening and early
morning hours. During the daytime hours, most of the cloud and
shower development is expected across the interior into western PR,
especially during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
A mid to upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region
until at least Wednesday, limiting the development of deep
convection across the forecast area. By late Wednesday through the
end of the forecast period, an upper level trough associated with
an upper low across the central Atlantic is expected to amplify
across the northeast Caribbean. A cold front will move across the
northwest Atlantic Saturday and Sunday. A strong surface high
pressure is expected to move across the northwest Atlantic behind
the cold front on Monday and eventually across the Central
Atlantic by mid week. Recent model guidance suggests east to
north east winds to increase once again in association with this
strong surface high pressure. This will result in windy conditions
(winds 20 to 25 mph+) across the region. Near seasonable
temperatures and overall cool advective pattern is forecast during
the entire period.

Occasional patches of low level moisture embedded in the east
northeast trades will move across the region from time to time.
Expect an overall fair and stable weather pattern with periods of
passing showers mainly across the north and east coastal sections
of Puerto Rico as well across Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI
during the late evening and early morning hours. Some shower
activity is also expected across interior and southwest Puerto
Rico each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL022...FL050...FL080. -SHRA/SHRA en
route btw islands and over coastal waters...and Tempo MVFR at
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX/TNCM TIL 16/10Z. Sfc wnds nr 10kts incr 15 to 20
kts with occasionally higher gusts aft 16/14z.Low level wnds fm NE
15-25 KTS. VCSH at TJMZ 16/18-16/22z.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy and hazardous seas between 6 and 8 feet will continue
across the regional waters today. Seas will continue to gradually
decrease through Saturday but increase once again through early
next week. Life threatening rip currents will continue across most
of the northern beaches in Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 83 73 83 73 / 30 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19269 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:46 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
331 AM AST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure continues to the north of the
local islands, causing moderate east to east northeast winds
across the local area. The local pressure gradient will tighten
early in the workweek as a stronger surface high pressure
develops across the northwestern Atlantic. This will cause the
local winds to increase and the marine conditions to become
hazardous once again. Overall available moisture will remain
below normal, but patches of low level moisture will pass through
occasionally, causing brief showers across the islands. An upper
low pressure could approach the local area late in the upcoming
workweek but it is not expected to have a significant impact in
the local weather, therefore no major change in the weather
conditions is anticipated for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...
Moderate east northeast trade winds winds will persist across the
local area through the weekend and into early next week. Breezy
conditions are therefore expected today through Monday, as the
surface high pressure ridge across the Atlantic will strengthen
north of the region leading to increasing trade winds between
15-25 mph with more frequent gusty winds.

Patches of low level moisture and associated trade wind showers will
continue to make their way and increase in frequency across the
region by Sunday, as the pressure gradient tightens and trade winds
increase. These showers and clouds will affect the local waters,
U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra, and the north and eastern
sections of PR, especially during the evening and early morning
hours. During the day, most of the cloud and shower development is
then expected to form and stream across the interior into west
sections of PR during the afternoons. Elsewhere and over the USVI,
mostly sunny fair weather skies and breezy to windy conditions will
prevail during the period with no significant rainfall or weather
feature anticipated at this time.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

Patches of moisture will pass through at times, causing brief
showers over the local area. These showers will mainly be observed
across the local waters, USVI, Vieques and Culebra as well as
northern and eastern PR, especially during the nighttime and early
morning hours. A strong SFC high pressure across the northwestern
Atlantic will cause the local pressure gradient to tighten early
in the workweek, which will cause windy conditions locally. These
winds will likely inhibit the usual sea breeze convergence in the
afternoon hours across western PR, which means that the areas that
could be affected by rain will probably be the local islands and
north and eastern PR, even during the daytime hours. Wednesday
looks to be the day with the best moisture so it is the day, in
the long term range of the forecast, that will likely observe the
best rainfall coverage, however, it is still expected to be
somewhat windy so the showers observe should be very brief. No
major change in the overall pattern is expected other than maybe
the wind speeds decreasing by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL080. -SHRA/SHRA en
route btw islands and over coastal waters. VCSH with ocnl -RA at
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX/TNCM TIL 17/14Z. Sfc wnds 10kts or less,
increasing 15 to 25 kts with occasionally higher gusts aft 16/14z.
Low level wnds fm NE 15-25 KTS. VCSH and BKN nr FL040-FL080 at TJMZ
and ctrl mtn range of PR 16/18-16/22z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution
across the local waters since seas will be up to 6 feet and the
local winds will be up to 20 knots, with the exception of the
coastal waters of southwestern Puerto Rico where the winds will be
up to 15 knots and the seas up to 4 feet. There is a moderate to
high risk of rip currents across most of the local beaches, please
refer to the local surf zone forecast for the details in your
area.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 83 74 / 50 30 30 30
STT 83 73 84 73 / 40 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19270 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:55 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 PM AST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure continues to the north of the
local islands, causing moderate east to east northeast winds
across the local area. The local pressure gradient will tighten
early in the workweek as a stronger surface high pressure
develops across the northwestern Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Partly cloudy skies
prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. An
area of cloudiness moved across the area, with little
precipitation observed. Latest satelite images depicted a dry air
mass encompassing the region from the east. This dry air mass will
result in less shower activity. Partly cloudy to clear skies are
expected tonight into Sunday morning. A patch of low level
moisture embedded in the trade winds is expected to reach the
local area Sunday morning. Strong high pressure will build across
the region late sunday into Monday, maintaining relatively dry
weather conditions across the islands.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...(previous
discussion)

Patches of moisture will pass through at times, causing brief
showers over the local area. These showers will mainly be observed
across the local waters, USVI, Vieques and Culebra as well as
northern and eastern PR, especially during the nighttime and early
morning hours. A strong SFC high pressure across the northwestern
Atlantic will cause the local pressure gradient to tighten early
in the workweek, which will cause windy conditions locally. These
winds will likely inhibit the usual sea breeze convergence in the
afternoon hours across western PR, which means that the areas that
could be affected by rain will probably be the local islands and
north and eastern PR, even during the daytime hours. Wednesday
looks to be the day with the best moisture so it is the day, in
the long term range of the forecast, that will likely observe the
best rainfall coverage, however, it is still expected to be
somewhat windy so the showers observe should be very brief. No
major change in the overall pattern is expected other than maybe
the wind speeds decreasing by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...A dry air mass will limit SHRA across the islands, but
Winds btwn 10 and 20 kt will push clouds and trade wind showers at
times mainly across TIST/TJSJ. SHRAs due to diurnal effects are
expected across the SW quadrant of PR resulting in VCSH at
TJMZ/TJPS. SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL080. Expect
easterly winds at 10-20 kt with gusts in/near SHRA. Winds are
expected to drop around 10 kt overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have diminshed to around 6 feet across the local
waters.However, hazardous marine conditions are expected to
continue through at least mid next week. Seas will increase once
again late Sunday night. As a result, small craft advisories will
be in effect. Winds up to 20 knots are also expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 74 83 / 30 30 30 20
STT 72 84 72 84 / 30 30 30 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19271 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:03 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
352 AM AST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the Atlantic to the
north of the local islands will produce moderate east to east
northeast winds across the local area today. The local pressure
gradient will tighten early in the workweek as a stronger surface
high pressure develops across the northwestern Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...
Prevailing easterly trade winds will continue to increase today
through Tuesday, as the surface high pressure ridge will build
north of the region and tighten the local pressure gradient.

As a result, expect frequent passing low level clouds with
occasional showers to affect the forecast area, especially during
the evening and early morning hours. This will be followed by mostly
sunny skies and fair weather under breezy conditions each day. As
pressure gradient continues to tighten, expect windy conditions (20-
25 MPH) with stronger and more frequent gusts by Monday and Tuesday.

Apart from the cool advective pattern of shallow moisture and quick
passing trade wind showers, an overall dry and stable airmass will
dominate the region, as the mid to upper level ridge will remain in
place for the next several days. As previously mentioned, expect to
see an increase in the early morning shower activity along portions
of the north and east coastal sections of the islands, as the trade
winds increase. These showers will be of short duration with no
significant weather impacts at this time. The exception will be the
deterioration of the marine conditions which is forecast to begin
later tonight and continue through Tuesday. Surf Zone Conditions are
also forecast to deteriorate creating dangerous rip currents along
most of the local beaches. Stay tuned and remain alert to the local
weather and marine conditions.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...
An upper level trough is expected to amplify across the northeast
Caribbean Wednesday through Saturday. This feature will result in
an increase of moisture transport across the local islands and
surrounding waters. Strong surface high pressure is expected to
persist across the Atlantic waters, just to north of the local
islands until at least Friday. This surface high pressure will be
replaced by another strong high pressure Saturday through Monday.
Patches of moisture embedded in the east northeast trades will
continue to move over the forecast area at times, causing brief
showers over the local islands. These showers will affect mostly
the local waters, USVI, Vieques, Culebra as well as the northern
and eastern PR, especially during the nighttime and early morning
hours. The strong surface high pressure systems across the
Atlantic will cause the local pressure gradient to tighten early
in the workweek, which will cause windy conditions locally. These
winds will likely inhibit the usual sea breeze convergence in the
afternoon hours across western PR, which means that the areas that
could be affected by rain will probably be the USVI , Vieques,
Culebra and north and eastern PR, even during the daytime hours.
Wednesday through Saturday, looks to be the days with the best
moisture due to the presence of an upper level trough close to
the region. However, it is still expected to be somewhat windy so
the showers observe should be heavy but brief.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg entire prd at all terminals. SCT-BKN cld
lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL080...SKC ABV. L/LVL WNDS fm ENE 15-20 kts
blo FL250. -SHRA/SHRA en route btw islands and ovr regional waters.
Few Tops btw FL100-FL120. Sfc wnds lgt/vrb bcmg 15-20 kts and gusty
aft 18/14z. No sig wx impacts at terminals or ovr local flying
area.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have diminished to around 6 feet across the local
waters, but will increase again tonight and Monday. Thus,
hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through at
least mid week. As a result, small craft advisories will be in
effect. Winds up to 25 knots with higher gusts are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 83 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 72 85 73 / 30 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19272 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:42 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
414 PM AST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the Atlantic to the
north of the local islands will produce moderate east to east
northeast winds across the local area today. The local pressure
gradient will tighten early in the workweek as a stronger surface
high pressure develops across the northwestern Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Pleasant weather condtions
prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today.
Dry weather conditions prevailed, with isolated isolated passing
showers affecting the region sporadically. Even drier weather
conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Tuesday as
a strong high pressure across the Atlantic north of the islands
continues to produce good weather conditions. Winds will increase
too, which will result in breezy conditions across the local area.
In addition, this wind will transport patches of low level
moisture from time to time through the region.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...Strong surface high
pressure will remain anchored across the western Atlantic through
the forecast period. However, for Wednesday through Saturday an
upper level trough is expected to amplify across the northeast
Caribbean Wednesday through Saturday. This feature will result in
an increase of moisture transport across the local islands and
surrounding waters.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg the fcst prd. SFC WNDS fm the E at 15-22 kts with
higher gusts will prevail through the evening. VCSH and BKN ceiling
at FL030-FL050 expected around TJMZ btwn 18/18-22z. Winds are
forecast to drop around 10 kts overnight increasing once again at 15
to 20 knots aft 19/13z. No sig wx impacts at terminals or ovr local
flying area.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly
tonight into Monday with building seas of 6 to 8 feet and winds up
to 25 kts. Small Craft advisories will be in effect for all
coastal waters, except across the coastal waters of southwestern
Puerto Rico were seas below 5 feet are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 75 82 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 85 73 83 / 20 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19273 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:46 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building in the western Atlantic will
sink slowly south during the week while weakening only slowly
generating fresh to strong breezes across the area. High pressure
at upper levels will build over the waters north of Cuba. A short
wave upper level trough will ride over the ridge today and
strengthen and stall east of the local area by Wednesday. Lower
level winds will carry shallow showers across the area from time
to time that will be enhanced by a weak frontal passage
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
A few showers were observed overnight mostly across the surrounding
waters with few of them affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as
the eastern and northern sections of Puerto Rico, leaving minimal
rainfall accumulations if any. Fairly dry and pleasant weather
conditions are expected to prevail today and the latest forecast is
in agreement with the observations and guidance.

An upper level ridge will hold over the region for the next few
days, limiting the development of deep convection across the local
islands. A strong surface high pressure is expected to move across
the northwest Atlantic behind a surface low and the associated cold
front across the north central Atlantic. This surface high pressure
system will produce an east to east northeast low level wind flow
across the local area for the next several days. As this high
pressure ridge strengthens north of the region, local pressure
gradient is expected to tightens, increasing the trades across the
region. This will result in breezy conditions across the local area
for the next few days. Winds of 20-25 MPH with frequent gusts of 30
MPH or greater are expected Today through Wednesday. Small patches
of shallow low level moisture embedded in the trades are expected to
move quickly across the region from time to time with little
rainfall accumulation. Generally there is little to no sea breeze
convergence with stronger winds, so the afternoon convection across
western PR is expected to be very limited. The exception will be the
deterioration of the marine conditions which is forecast to begin
today and continue through at least Wednesday. Surf Zone Conditions
will continue to also deteriorate creating dangerous rip currents
along most of the local beaches. Drier weather should commence
after a weak frontal passage Wednesday.

Due to the dry and breezy conditions expected today, an elevated
fire danger is expected across the southern coastal plains of Puerto
Rico and a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 8 AM this morning
through 6 PM this evening for that area.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Pronounced northeast to east northeast low level flow will begin
to subside by mid week but will still be moderate to fresh by
Sunday. A weak cold front will usher in cooler and relatively
drier air Wednesday night through Thursday night. Patches of
moisture and weak, rumpled remnants of fronts will pass through
for the rest of the period insuring that brief scattered showers
keep windward slopes damp Friday through next Monday. A weak upper
level low will pinch off the trough extending toward the area at
250 mb on Thursday to enhance some of the showers that will
occur. When it lifts north it will bring an 85 knot jet of
southwest winds across the area, but generally flow will be
subsident on this side of the low until late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across the local
flying area for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain from the ENE at
10-15 knots until 19/12Z, increasing to 15-20 knots with occasional
gusts to 30 knots after that. SHRA activity is expected to be very
brief, VCSH possible.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and sea will increase today and tonight. Seas will
continue to increase through Thursday with up to 12 feet likely
in the northeast corner of our outer Atlantic waters Wednesday
night. Small craft advisories are likely to remain up across most
of the waters exposed to northeast swell through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 73 / 30 20 30 30
STT 84 71 85 71 / 20 20 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19274 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:13 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 PM AST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building in the western Atlantic will
sink slowly south during the week while weakening only slowly
generating fresh to strong breezes across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Partly sunny skies with
breeze conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands today. Very light passing showers were observed. Winds
between 20 to 25 mph were observed across some localized area,
mainly in higher elevations. Strong surface high pressure is the
responsible for these weather conditions. A very dry air mass has
encompassed the region. As a result, limited shower activity is
expected through at least Wednesday. An increase in low level
moisture is expected on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...(Previous discussion)

Pronounced northeast to east northeast low level flow will begin
to subside by mid week but will still be moderate to fresh by
Sunday. A weak cold front will usher in cooler and relatively
drier air Wednesday night through Thursday night. Patches of
moisture and weak, rumpled remnants of fronts will pass through
for the rest of the period insuring that brief scattered showers
keep windward slopes damp Friday through next Monday. A weak upper
level low will pinch off the trough extending toward the area at
250 mb on Thursday to enhance some of the showers that will occur.
When it lifts north it will bring an 85 knot jet of southwest
winds across the area, but generally flow will be subsident on
this side of the low until late in the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
cycle with brief -SHRA/SHRA possible at the Leeward and USVI
terminals as well as JSJ/JBQ. ENE winds 15-25 knots with higher
gusts, becoming at around 12-15 knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoy were showing an increase in seas with buoy
41053 located around 170 nautical miles northeast of San Juan
indicating near 7 feet. Seas are expected to remain hazardous for
the rest of the week. Small Craft advisories continue in effect.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Latest surface observations indicated relative
humidity values at Camp Santiago drop to 39% late this afternoon.
Although relative humidity values will remain near threshold level
tonight, winds are expected to decrease across the southern
plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 73 81 / 30 30 30 40
STT 71 85 71 83 / 30 30 30 30
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