Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
322 PM AST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level low over the Anegada Passage will
move southward across the Lesser Antilles through the end of the
work week. At the same time...a mid-upper level ridge builds over
the Central and Eastern Caribbean. Broad surface low located just
east of the Leeward Islands will move west and cross the local
islands on Wednesday. This surface trough/low likely enhanced the
trade winds showers as well as the afternoon convection. Trade
wind pattern will establish across the local islands the rest of
the week. As a result...passing showers will often affect the
north and east portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a cyclonic
circulation associated with the mid-upper level low over the
Leeward Islands. The position of the upper low is producing a
subsidence air mass over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
This unfavorable conditions aloft has limited the shower development
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands so far this afternoon.
However...isolated showers are still possible across the southwest
portions of Puerto Rico later this afternoon due to the sea breeze
convergence.

A broad surface low just upstream of the islands will move west
over the region on Wednesday. This will bring a few rounds of
scattered showers across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands
overnight. Showers will spread over portions of north and east
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Then...a typical trade wind pattern is
forecast the rest of the week. This pattern will be characterized
by passing showers during the morning hours across the windward
areas followed by some afternoon convection over the west and
northwest Puerto Rico each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds through 30/00Z. VCSH possible at TJPS and TJMZ
this afternoon. Light and variable winds today. SFC low
approaching from the east will cause an increase in passing SHRA
activity and maybe brief TSRA in the area during the overnight
hours...mainly causing VCSH and CIGs near FL080.

&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure north of the area will generate
fresh easterly winds across the regional waters. As a result...seas
will build across the local waters on Wednesday. Choppy seas of
6-8 feet and winds around 20 knots can be expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Therefore...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from
late tonight through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 84 76 88 / 50 50 30 30
STT 76 84 77 86 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong mid to upper leve ridge extends across the
Greater Antilles from the Central and Eastern caribbean into the
West Atlantic. Meanwhile, A short wave trough extends from the
Central Atlantic southwards across the Lesser Antilles with an
area of low pressure across the Northern Leewards. The mid to
upper level ridge is to build across the region today through the
end of the week, as the trough and associated low sinks farther
south and fills/weakens. This in turn will strengthen the trade
winds and cap inversion.

In the low levels...The induced mid to low level trough is supported
by a broad inverted surface trough spread across the Eastern Caribbean.
This trough extends northwards across the region with a weakly embedded
low now centered just northeast of the northern leewards. This trough
and associated low is forecast to shift west southwest across the region
through wednesday while slowly weakening as surface high pressure ridge
builds north of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
For the rest of the early morning hours,fragments of shallow low
level moisture, remnants from old frontal boundaries and shear
line just north of the region move across the forecast area in the
prevailing moderate northeast trade wind flow. This prevailing
wind flow is induced by the high pressure ridging north of region
and low circulation just NE of area. Skies are to then become
mostly sunny by late morning and the rest of the day. However,
expect some additional afternoon cloudiness and showers of mainly
of light to moderate intensity to form over parts of interior and
southwest PR. Elsewhere and over the USVI mostly fair weather
skies with a slight chance for few showers in isolated spots.

The surface trough and low level pattern will gradually enhance
moisture convergence today through Thursday. This will bring an
increase moisture pooling and instability to the region. By late
Thursday and the for the remainder of the week, model guidance
suggest gradual improvement in the overall weather conditions
once again, as the mid to upper level inversion strengthens and
moisture transport diminishes across the region. So far model
guidance suggest somewhat drier conditions for the weekend with
only shallow trade wind induced convection, as high pressure will
continue to build aloft and north of the area increasing the
easterly trades.

&&

.AVIATION...In general, VFR conditions expected during the morning
hrs with just a few passing -SHRA affecting TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/
TKPK. Expect SHRA en route between the Atlantic waters and PR/USVI,
as the wind flow pushed them toward the islands. SHRA/+SHRA are
expected during the afternoon across the interior/west sections of
PR and MVFR celling are still possible at TJMZ and maybe in the VCNTY
of TJPS/TIST/TJSJ btwn 30/18z-22z. NE SFC winds at 5 to 10 knots
increasing at 10 to 15 knots with sea breeze variations aft
30/12z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate today
through at least thursday due to the moderate to fresh east to
northeast trade wind flow induced by the previously mentioned surface
high spreading eastward across the atlantic north of the region
and the trough/area of low pressure over the northern leewards.
Small Craft Advisories remains in effect and a High Risk Current
Risk is in effect for the northwest to north facing coastlines of
PR, Culebra and some beaches along the norther shore lines of the
northern USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 88 75 / 50 30 30 20
STT 84 77 86 77 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
202 PM AST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong mid to upper leve ridge extends across the
Greater Antilles from the Central and Eastern caribbean into the
West Atlantic. An induced mid to low level trough will enhance
moisture convergence through late Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade
winds affected the local region from time to time. These showers
were moving quickly. As a result, rainfall accumulation were not
significant. An induced surface trough will enhance moisture
convergence through late Thursday. An increase in low level
moisture is then expected with precipitable water values forecast
to increase above 2 inches Thursday and continuing through Friday
morning. After Friday, moisture will continue across the area,
under a easterly trade wind flow. At this time, no significant
weather events are forecast to affect the local region in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with VCSH
expected across the local terminals in the afternoon. ENE winds at
around 10kt with sea breeze variations through in PR through
30/23Z...becoming light and VRB to SE thereafter. Winds at the USVI
are from the SE at 5-10KT becoming lighter after 30/23Z. VCSH
expected through the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...buoy 41043 was showing wave height of 11 feet at 9
seconds. Mean wave direction is from the northeast. Some of this
energy will reach our northern coastal waters late tonight and
tomorrow. Therefore, Small Craft advisories continues in effect.
Also, High Risk of risk current will continue through at least 8pm
AST. Seas between 6 to 8 feet and winds up to 20 knots are
expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 87 / 30 40 20 20
STT 76 85 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 AM AST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high centered across the West Central Atlantic and broad
trough extending northwards across the region from the eastern
caribbean will maintain light to moderate east to southeast trade
winds across the area during the remainder of the work week. Surface
trough is to weaken Friday into Saturday as the high pressure ridge
spreads shifts eastward into the central Atlantic an sinks farther
south across the region. Mid to upper level high pressure ridge will
continue to build and spread northwards across the region through
the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will increase cap
inversion and limit significant convective development... while creating
upper level convergence and subsidence aloft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moisture fragments in the east to southeast trades
will continue to be transported across the region over the next
several days. However the moisture will remain fairly shallow
with no significant vertical development due to suppression and
overall northerly shear aloft. Therefore expect passing early
morning light to moderate showers to affect the coastal waters and
some of the north and east coastal section of the islands from
time to time. Afternoon shower development should be focused
mainly over portions of the interior and west to northwest section
of the islands. No significant rainfall accumulations expected
today.

By Friday and into the weekend surface winds are to become more
easterly and moisture advection is to diminish over the weekend.
However on Saturday, a weak perturbation on the easterlies will
bring a quick surge of moisture across the region to allow for
early morning and afternoon showers across the north and east
sections of the islands. This will be followed by shower
development mainly over the Central and west interior section of
PR during the afternoon. On Sunday and into early next week the
upper ridge is to erode and prevailing winds are to become more
northeasterly while increasing once again, as high pressure will
build across the Western Atlantic. This will increase the chance
early morning cloudiness and quick passing showers along the north
and east coastal section of the islands once again.

&&

.AVIATION...In general, VFR conds across the local flying area,
however, -SHRA/SHRA en route btw islands, ovr local Caribbean and
Atl waters are expected. A few passing -SHRA are expected at
TKPK/TNCM/TISX/TIST during the morning and at TJPS/TJSJ after
30/12Z at times. SCT-BKN at FL030...FL080 are expected with these
-SHRA. Cloudiness is expected to increase over the west/south/interior
PR btwn 30/16-23z. Sfc wnd calm to lgt/vrb...becoming from the E-ESE
10- 15 kts with sea breeze variations aft 30/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisories are in effect for the Atlantic
waters and Mona passage as seas between 7-8 feet are expected to
continue until at least later this evening. A high rip current risk
will remain in effect until this evening for the northern beaches
of Puerto Rico and Culebra. A moderate risk of rip currents continues
for the rest of the islands. Please refer to the latest Coastal Waters
Forecast and Surf Zone Forecast issued by the National Weather Service
WFO San Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 30 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
158 PM AST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will prevail to the north of the
local islands then to the northeast as the system slowly moves to
the east for the next couple of days. Upper ridge will continue to
dominate for the next couple of days as well. Isolated to
scattered showers are forecast for the next several days,
particularly across the local waters, USVI and eastern PR in the
morning and overnight hours, then across the interior into western
PR in the afternoon hours for the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers were observed in the morning across
the local area with little accumulation of rain over land areas.
Showers and cloudiness gradually developed in the early afternoon
hours, causing scattered showers across the interior and NW
sections of PR. Since the surface low is now to our west, the
local wind flow is predominating from the ESE and is expected to
do so for the next few days. For that reason, the afternoon
shower development is expected to be across the interior into NW
PR. At this time, due to the lack of upper air support, the
showers that do develop are not expected to develop into
thunderstorms. Also, because of this ESE wind flow, the
temperatures across the San Juan Metro and North PR could rise
into the upper 80s while the rest of PR and the USVI could observe
maximum temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

This general pattern is expected for the next few days.


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites
through at least 22Z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are expected
over TJBQ through at least 01/22z. VCSH are expected elsewhere
through the forecast period. Low level winds will continue mainly
southeast at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Latest buoy readings and guidance suggests that the
local seas are now below small craft advisory criteria and slowly
subsiding, for that reason the Small Craft Advisory was
cancelled. Having said that, seas are still choppy and up to 6
feet so small craft operators are urged to exercise caution.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 76 87 / 20 20 20 30
STT 77 86 76 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
350 AM AST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE High spread across the west central atlantic
And broad inverted trough extending northwards across the region
Will maintain light to moderate east southeast trade winds across
The area during today through saturday. The surface trough will
continue to weaken today through saturday as the atlantic ridge
spreads eastward and builds north of the region. Mid to upper level
high pressure ridge will continue extend northwards across the
region through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and accompanying patches of shallow low level moisture
Embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to affect the coastal
Waters and mainly the east and south coastal areas of the islands
During the rest of the morning hours. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy
Skies expected by late morning followed by the chance of diurnally
And locally induced afternoon showers. The shower activity should be
focused across the central interior and northwest sections of PR as
well as in portions of the San Juan metro area. Only isolated showers
expected elsewhere including the USVI where no significant rainfall
accumulations is expected at this time.

In addition, because of the prevailing SE wind flow today,
afternoon high temperatures across the San Juan metro and north
PR may once again rise into the upper 80s while the rest of PR and
the USVI should observe near normal temperatures in the low to
mid 80s.

Surface winds are to become more easterly and low level moisture
transport will continue to gradually diminish over much of the
weekend. However on Saturday model guidance still suggest a weak
perturbation will bring a quick surge of moisture across the area.
This will support early morning showers across the north and east
sections of The islands. During the afternoon, shower development
should be focused mainly over the interior and west sections of
PR with limited shower activity elsewhere.

On sunday and into early next week the upper ridge is to erode and
prevailing winds are to become more northeasterly while increasing
once again, as another area of high pressure will build across the
Western Atlantic. This prevailing moderate northeast wind flow
will increase the chance early morning cloudiness and quick passing
showers along the north and east coastal section of the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/-shra expected across the local waters, some of
Them will affect tjps/tist/tisx/tncm/tkpk overnight. However, vfr
Conditions are expected during this period. Cloudiness is expected
To increase after 02/16z over the interior/nw pr as well as downwind
From el yunque, with shra/+shra impacting tjmz/tjbq, as well as vcsh
At tjsj until 02/22z. Surface winds are expected to continue mainly
From the ese at around 5 kt but locally higher in/near showers,
Increasing at 10 to 15 kt after 02/13z with sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS will continue to subside during the rest of today.
However small craft operators should exercise caution due to seas
up To 6 feet across the Mona Passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 89 76 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 77 85 75 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
127 PM AST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...During early morning hours showers began to affect
the eastern portions of Puerto Rico and between 6 and 8 am showers
intensified over the Southeast portions of Puerto Rico. These
showers generated major ponding of water across roadways and
tributaries out of their banks. Before mid morning most o these
showers dissipated. After mid morning passing showers affected the
eastern portions of PR including the San Juan metropolitan area.

Tonight...Showers will continue to develop over the local waters
with a few moving on shore affect the eastern half of PR and all
local islands. These showers will become more frequent through the
overnight hours. Surface winds are forecast to become from the
east during the weekend. On Saturday an increase on showers is
expected as a weak perturbation is forecast to move across the
area. This weather feature will support early morning showers
across the east half of Puerto Rico and adjacent islands. On
Saturday afternoon...showers will develop mainly over the interior
and west sections of PR with limited shower activity elsewhere.

Beginning on Sunday and into early next week the upper ridge is
to erode and prevailing winds are to become more northeasterly
while increasing once again, as another area of high pressure will
build across the Western Atlantic. This prevailing moderate
northeast wind flow will increase the chance early morning
cloudiness and quick passing showers along the north and east
coastal section of the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Cloudiness is expected to increase over the interior/NW
PR as well as downwind from El Yunque, with brief periods of MVFR
conditions in SHRA/+SHRA impacting TJMZ/TJBQ, as well as VCSH at
TJSJ until 02/22Z. Surface winds are expected to continue mainly
from the SE at around 15 kt but locally higher in/near showers.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to subside during the rest of today
and tonight. Seas up To 5 with winds at around 10 knots. The next
significant swell event is forecast for late Monday as a northerly
swell will reach the local Atlantic waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 76 86 / 50 50 20 20
STT 77 85 75 85 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
531 AM AST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge pattern aloft is forecast to slowly erode during the next
few days. However, a surface perturbation and enough surface
moisture will result in passing showers across the local waters,
the U.S. Virgin Islands and East Puerto Rico this morning.
Followed by afternoon showers mainly over the interior and west
sections of Puerto RIco and downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Sunday and into midweek, the prevailing winds are to become more
northeasterly as a surface high pressure builds across the Western
Atlantic. This weather pattern is forecast to increase the chance
of frequent passing showers along the northern and eastern sections
of Puerto Rico, as well as across the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface trough and easterly trades provided sufficient moisture
transport to support isolated to scattered showers across the
local waters, eastern PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight.
This surface perturbation is expected to continue enhancing this
activity across the islands today. During the afternoon, showers
development is expected across most of the islands, but more
frequent across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. In
addition, due to the east southeast wind flow, showers are
possible across the San Juan Metropolitan area.

The upper level ridge pattern is forecast to slowly erode into the
upcoming week. At low levels, winds are forecast to become more
easterly as a high pressure builds over the Atlantic Waters. Also,
a frontal boundary is forecast to moves to the North and near the
local region. Due to the proximity of this frontal boundary and
under the prevailing northeasterly wind flow the chance of early
morning cloudiness and quick passing showers along the north and
east coastal section of the islands is expected to increase at
least until midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites through
at least 03/16z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected over TJMZ and TJBQ from 03/16z through
03/22z. Low level winds will be mainly east at 10 kts except for sea
breeze variations in coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas up to 5 and winds at 10 knots or less. A
northerly swell is forecast to move across the Atlantic Waters and
Caribbean Passages late Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 76 / 50 20 20 20
STT 85 76 86 74 / 50 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 PM AST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers move inland and
affected the southeast portions of Puerto Rico mainly affecting
the municipalities of Maunabo and Patillas. Later in the morning
showers developed along La Cordillera Central. These showers move
over the northern portions affecting the San Juan Metropolitan
area. A similar weather pattern is expected to prevail through at
least Monday, with overnight and morning showers affecting the
eastern portions of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and later
in the afternoon showers affecting the interior and western
portions of Puerto Rico.

The upper level ridge pattern is forecast to slowly erode into the
upcoming week. At low levels, winds are forecast to become more
easterly as a high pressure builds over the Atlantic Waters. Also,
a frontal boundary is forecast to moves to the North and near the
local region. Due to the proximity of this frontal boundary and
under the prevailing northeasterly wind flow the chance of early
morning cloudiness and quick passing showers along the north and
east coastal section of the islands is expected to increase at
least until midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all
terminals after 22z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected over the PR mainland terminals through
at least 22z. Low level winds will be mainly east around 10 kts,
however, light and variable winds expected overnight at the surface.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas up to 5 and winds at 10 knots or less. A
northerly swell is forecast to move across the Atlantic Waters and
Caribbean Passages late Monday or Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 76 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 86 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A seasonable weather pattern will continue to prevail
across the forecast area with showers embedded in the trades at
times as well as some locally induced afternoon showers across
west Puerto Rico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies prevailed across the local islands
overnight and early this morning with showers observed mainly over
the regional waters. Winds were light and variable with coastal
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

A seasonable weather pattern will continue to prevail under a mid
level ridge and low level moisture above the normal range. Moisture
advection will continue at times as a surface high builds north of
the area, pushing remnants of an old frontal boundary over the
area. Therefore, showers embedded in the trades are expected at
times each day with the potential for locally induced afternoon
convection. As the high builds north of the area, winds are expected
to increase and shift northeast. Due to the lack of forcing associated
with the ridge aloft and building high north of the area, afternoon
convection is expected to be shallow and focused across west and
southwest Puerto Rico each day. The aforementioned weather
pattern is expected to prevail much of this week. Due to already
saturated soils, sharp raises along small streams and rivers still
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites through
at least 04/16z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected over TJMZ from 04/16z through 04/22z.
Low level winds will be mainly east at 10 kts except for sea
breeze variations in coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue across the
regional waters today. Mariners can expected winds 10-15 kt and
seas of 2-4 feet across most of the waters. As a result... A low
risk of rip currents is forecast for most of the beaches in PR and
USVI. A 6-foot northerly swell is expected to invade the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 76 / 20 20 20 40
STT 87 77 86 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
204 PM AST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level ridge will limited the vertical development of showers
across the region. At low levels, a surface high pressure will
build over the Western Atlantic, pushing a frontal boundary to
the North and near the local waters. In addition, above normal
low level moisture is expected to pool over the islands. This
weather pattern will continue to bring trade wind showers across
the windward sections of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
at times. In addition, expect locally induced afternoon showers
across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In general, a fair weather pattern prevailed today. Satellite
imagery detected mostly sunny skies with a thin layer of mid to
upper level clouds over the region. The Doppler Radar observed
little to no shower activity across the islands. However,
cloudiness and showers began to increase in coverage across the
interior, West and South PR, as well as streamers off of the U.S.
Virgin Islands early this afternoon. Therefore, this weather
conditions are expected to continue during the rest of the
afternoon, with the strongest activity over the interior and
southwestern portions of Puerto Rico.

The upper level ridge pattern is forecast to slowly erode, as a
low pressure moves over the region from the east. A high pressure
at mid levels is expected to hold aloft during this week.
Also, a frontal boundary is forecast to moves to the North and
near the local region. The proximity of this frontal boundary,
plenty of surface moisture and under the prevailing northeasterly
wind flow the chance of early morning cloudiness and quick passing
showers along the north and east coastal section of the islands
are likely each day. Shallow afternoon convection is expected
mainly across the interior and west Puerto Rico, as well as
downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through
the forecast period. Showers across the Atlantic waters associated
to a frontal boundary could reach the northern/eastern terminals
of the islands on a 10-14 kt east to northeasterly steering wind
flow. Surface winds light and variable through the overnight
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions with seas around 3 feet and winds at 10
to 15 knots. A northerly swell is expected to reach the Atlantic
Waters and the Caribbean Passages Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 86 / 20 20 40 40
STT 77 86 77 86 / 20 20 20 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers embedded in the trades at times as well as
locally induced afternoon showers across west Puerto Rico still
expected each day under a mid level ridge and available low level
moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local
islands during the overnight and early morning hours. Isolated to
scattered showers were observed across northern and eastern
Puerto Rico but the accumulations were minimal. Overnight minimum
temperatures ranged from the low 70s to the upper 70s across the
lower elevations and in the mid to upper 60s across the higher
elevations. Winds over land were mainly light and variable.

Although a developing upper level trough will prevail much of
this week across the eastern Caribbean, a seasonable weather
pattern will continue to prevail under a mid level ridge which
is expected to hold during the next several days. Moisture
advection will continue at times as a building surface high north
of the area brings remnants of old frontal boundaries over the
forecast area.

Therefore, showers embedded in the trades are expected at times
each day with the potential for locally induced afternoon convection.
Due to the lack of forcing associated with the mid level ridge
and building high north of the area, afternoon showers are expected
to be shallow and focused across west and southwest Puerto Rico
each day. The aforementioned weather pattern is expected to prevail
much of this week. Due to already saturated soils, sharp raises
along small streams and rivers still possible. A wet pattern could
be expected Friday and into the upcoming weekend as a surge of low
to mid level moisture moves across the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across all terminals for
the next 24 hours. VCSH possible at TJSJ and TIST through
05/13Z.SHRA developing across interior, Western and SW-PR causing
VCSH at TJMZ, TJBQ and TJPS after 05/17Z. East winds of around 10
kt expected with sea breeze variations developing after 05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue to prevail across
the regional waters today. Mariners can expected winds 10-15 kt
and seas of 3-5 feet across Atlantic waters. Elsewhere, seas will
remain below 4 feet. A northerly swell is expected to invade the
Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages tonight into Tuesday,
increasing seas up to 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 76 / 20 40 40 30
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
137 PM AST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper ridge will continue to build from the
west through the rest of the work week. Surface high north of the
area will continue to build into the central Atlantic by the end
of the week. Remnants of a frontal boundary will linger across
the local area for the next few days. An easterly wave and short
wave trof will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms
across the Caribbean waters and enhance afternoon convection over
mainland PR on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Some cloudiness and isolated to scattered shower
activity associated to a frontal boundary was observed across much
of PR and the northern USVI`s during the day. As of 1 PM, around
half an inch of rain was reported with this shower activity
across portions of northern and eastern PR. For the rest of the
afternoon hours, showers currently developing over the interior
and southwestern sections of PR will continue through at least
sunset. Trade wind shower activity will follow overnight into
Tuesday morning across the USVI and PR.

As ridge builds aloft moisture will erode quickly through at least
Friday. Weather conditions should continue to improve, with
limited trade wind shower activity across the area and shallow
afternoon convection over the interior/western portions of PR. On
Friday as easterly wave moves across the Caribbean waters and
trofiness pattern press against the ridge, moisture and
instability will increase across the forecast area. Ridge pattern
is forecast to follow through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
through 06/18z. VCSH possible at TJSJ...TIST...TJBQ and TJMZ through
05/22Z as SHRA develop across interior, Western and SW-PR. Winds
will be East around 10 kt expected with sea breeze variations in the
afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...Seas should continue between 3-5 feet through the rest
of the day, increasing overnight with the arrival of a northerly
swell. This swell will result in a high rip current risk across
the Atlantic coastline of PR, Culebra and St. Thomas. Moderate
risk expected elsewhere across the rest of the north and east
facing beaches of the islands.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 76 85 / 40 40 30 30
STT 76 86 76 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers embedded in the trades at times as well as
limited afternoon convection across west Puerto Rico still expected
through Friday under a mid level ridge and available low level
moisture. A wetter pattern is possible Friday and into the
upcoming weekend as an easterly disturbance moves across the
eastern Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across
the local islands during the overnight and early morning hours.
Isolated to scattered showers were observed across northern and
eastern Puerto Rico but the accumulations were minimal. Overnight
minimum temperatures ranged from the low 70s to the upper 70s across
the lower elevations and in the mid to upper 60s across the higher
elevations.

Although an upper level trough will hold much of this week across
the eastern Caribbean, a seasonable weather pattern will continue to
prevail through Friday under a mid level ridge and its associated
cap inversion. Low level moisture advection will continue at times
as a surface high north of the area continues to promote a fresh
northeasterly wind flow, bringing patches of moisture at times.

Therefore, still expect showers embedded in the trades each day
with the potential for locally induced afternoon convection. Due
to the lack of forcing, afternoon showers are expected to be shallow
and focused across west and southwest Puerto Rico each day. Due to
already saturated soils, sharp raises along small streams and
rivers still possible.

A wetter pattern is possible Friday and into the upcoming weekend
as the ridge aloft erodes, and an easterly disturbance moves
across the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through
the next 24 hrs. VCSH at TJSJ...TIST...TJBQ and TJMZ through
06/14Z as SHRA moves over the local waters, USVI, and North and
East PR. SHRA to develop over PR after 06/16Z, likely affecting
the vicinity of the terminals in PR and possibly affecting TJMZ
causing brief MVFR conds. Winds will be East at around 10 kt with
sea breeze variations developing after 06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Expect seas of 4-6 feet in north swells across the
Atlantic waters and the local passages with a high risk of rip
currents across the north facing beaches of the islands...except
Vieques and St. Croix. Elsewhere, seas between 3 and 5 feet
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
137 PM AST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge will continue to hold through the
rest of the work week. Surface high north of the area will
continue to move into the central Atlantic promoting moderate
northeasterly trades. An easterly wave and short wave trof are
forecast to bring a wetter pattern across the area on Friday.
Frontal boundary is forecast to remain north of the area through
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the
islands Today. Trade wind showers continued across the eastern
portions of PR and showers were developing across the
western/southwestern portions of PR early in the afternoon hours.
Across the USVI, streamers created periods of light showers over
the western portions of the islands and coastal waters.

Ridge aloft will remain as the main weather feature across the
region for the next few days limiting the shower activity across
the local islands and surrounding waters. Therefore, passing trade
wind showers are expected across the USVI and coastal sections of
eastern and northern Puerto Rico during the overnight and early
morning hours...followed by shallow afternoon convection over the
interior/western portions of PR. On Friday as easterly wave moves
across the Caribbean waters and coincides with trof aloft,
moisture and instability will increase across the forecast area.
Ridge pattern is forecast to follow through the weekend with
remnants of a frontal boundary promoting trade wind showers
across the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the local
flying area through the next 24 hours. SHRA expected to develop over
Eastern PR overnight and early in the morning. After 07/16Z, SHRA
are expected possibly affecting TJMZ causing brief MVFR conditions.
Winds will be East at around 10 kt tonight increasing to 10 to 15
knots after 07/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas of 4-6 feet in north swells will continue across
the Atlantic waters and the local passages with a high risk of rip
currents across the northwest to northeast facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Thomas. Elsewhere, seas between 3
and 5 feet expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
522 AM AST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure to the north of the local
islands will be the dominating feature for the next few days in
terms of winds. Winds will be generally from the ene today and
Thursday but then turning mainly easterly for the next several
days thereafter. Ridge in the mid levels will suppress convection
over Puerto Rico but a few showers are still expected to develop
across the interior and western sections of PR with isolated and
brief showers elsewhere. Easterly wave expected to pass through
the area late Thursday into Friday. This will cause an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity over the area. A more typical
December pattern is expected thereafter with tradewind showers
moving in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers were observed across
the local area during the overnight hours which generally left
minimal accumulations across the north and eastern sections of PR.
The USVI, Vieques and Culebra observed even less rain with either
trace amounts of rain or no rain at all. These few and brief
showers are expected to continue affecting the north and eastern
sections of PR through the early morning hours. Afternoon
convection is expected to be modest but a few significant showers
are possible across portions of western PR. These showers could
cause some ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas
since the soils are still very saturated in that area of PR. Only
a slight chance of showers for the rest of the forecast area.

Slightly drier air is expected to move in late this afternoon and
tonight with precipitable water values dipping from 1.2 to just under
1 inch across PR and around 1.25 inches across the USVI. Then
staying at around 1.2 inches for Thursday before the easterly wave
moves in late Thursday, causing an increase in moisture and
instability. With the easterly wave there will also be an increase
in shower activity and possibly even some thunderstorms. After the
easterly wave, easterly wind flow will prevail with patches of
higher moisture over the local area. This means that tradewind
showers are expected for the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through
the forecast period with VCSH possible at JSJ/IST/JBQ/ISX through
07/14Z. SHRA to develop over PR after 07/16Z, and may result in
brief MVFR conds at JMZ through 07/22z. Winds will be from the e ast
at around 10 kt with sea breeze variations developing after
07/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas of 4-6 feet in subsiding north swells will
continue across the Atlantic waters and the local passages today.
Small craft should exercise caution across these areas. Seas
between 3 and 5 feet can be expected elsewhere. A high risk of
rip currents will continue across the Atlantic facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Thomas. Moderate risk of rip currents
across the beaches along the Northwest coast and the eastern tip
of Puerto Rico as well as most of Culebra and Vieques. For the
USVI there is a moderate risk of rip currents from South Central
to Northeast Saint Thomas, Northwest Saint John, and northern and
eastern Saint Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 75 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 76 86 77 / 30 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
131 PM AST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge will continue to suppress the
development of widespread precipitation over the region until at
least Thursday. However, patches of moisture embedded in the trades
are expected to produce few showers across the interior and
western sections of PR in the afternoons. A surface high pressure
north of the region will maintain an East Northeast low level wind
flow over the region. An easterly wave is expected to reach the
region on Friday, but the bulk of the moisture is expected to
remain south of the local islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar detected isolated to scattered showers
across northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico during the
morning. Few showers are also expected to develop over Western
and interior sections of Puerto Rico late this afternoon. These
showers could cause some ponding of water on roadways and poor
drainage areas since the soils are still very saturated, but in
general not significant accumulations are expected in association
with this activity.

A mid level ridge will remain as the main weather feature over
the region until at least Thursday. This feature will continue to
inhibit the development of significant showers across the local
islands and surrounding waters. However, a surface high pressure
to the north of the region will continue to promote an east
northeast wind flow with few embedded showers across the eastern
sections of Puerto Rico tonight. An easterly wave to the east of
the Lesser Antilles is expected to reach the region Thursday night
and Friday, slightly increasing the chances of showers across the
local islands and surrounding waters, but the bulk of the moisture
will pass mostly south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through
08/18z. Will only mention VCSH possible at TJMZ through 07/23Z. This
could result in brief MVFR conds. Expect dry airmass to remain in
place overnight so will not even mention VCSH for any terminal after
08/00z. Winds will be East at around 10-12 kt with sea breeze
variations. Winds should decrease to 5-10 kts overnight...but
increasing again to around 12-15 kts with sea breeze variations
after 08/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 4-6 feet in subsiding north swells will
continue across the Atlantic waters and the local passages tonight.
Small craft should exercise caution across these areas. Seas
between 3 and 5 feet can be expected elsewhere. A high risk of rip
currents will continue across the Atlantic facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra and St. Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 75 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 76 86 77 86 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure to the north of the local
islands will continue dominating the local wind pattern for the
next few days. Winds will be generally from the ene today but
then turning mainly easterly on Friday and continuing for the
next several days thereafter. Ridge in the mid levels will
suppress convection over Puerto Rico but a few showers are still
expected to develop across the interior and western sections of PR
with isolated and brief showers elsewhere. Easterly disturbance expected
to pass through the area late tonight into Friday. This will
cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the
area. A more typical December pattern is expected thereafter with
tradewind showers moving in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Little to no shower activity was observed across
the local area during the overnight hours. Only isolated showers
across the Caribbean waters were observed. This mainly fair
weather pattern is expected to continue through the morning hours
but modest afternoon convection is expected mainly across the
southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico...where a few significant
showers are possible. These showers could cause some ponding of
water on roadways and poor drainage areas since the soils are
still very saturated in that area of PR. Only a slight chance of
showers for the rest of the forecast area.

Local available moisture is expected to rise slightly today to a
value of about 1.3 inches for this afternoon before an easterly
disturbance moves in tonight, causing an increase in moisture and
instability...however the deeper moisture is expected to remain to
our south. With the easterly disturbance there will also be an
increase in shower activity and possibly even some thunderstorms.
After the disturbance passes, easterly wind flow will prevail
with patches of higher moisture over the local area. This means
that tradewind showers are expected for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through
the forecast period with VCSH possible at JSJ/IST/ISX through
08/14Z. SHRA to develop over PR after 08/16Z, and may result in
brief MVFR conds at JMZ through 08/22z. Winds will be ENE at 10-15
kt with sea breeze variations developing after 08/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Slowly subsiding north swell and increasing easterly
trade winds will continue to create a high risk of rip currents
along the Atlantic coastlines of Puerto Rico...Culebra and ST.
Thomas. Local buoys are reporting seas generally between 3 and 5
feet...which is consistent with the forecast. Seas are likely up
to 6 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and the local
passages. Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution for
seas up to 6 feet across the Atlantic waters and local
passages...with winds up to 20 knots across the Caribbean waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 86 77 / 30 30 30 20
STT 86 77 86 76 / 30 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
150 PM AST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure to the north of the local
islands will continue dominating the local wind pattern for the
next few days. Easterly disturbance expected to pass through the
area late tonight into Friday. This will cause an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity over the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Variably cloudy skies prevailed across the local
region this morning and early this afternoon. No shower activity
was observed over land areas. Very dry conditions prevailed across
the region with latest 08/12Z TJSJ sounding showing precipitable
water values of only 1.25 inches. Very dry air at mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere will continue to suppress shower
development across the region.

High pressure ridge will remain as the main weather feature
across the region for the next few days. Easterly disturbance is
expected to pass through the area late tonight into Friday. This
system will cause an increase in shower activity over the area. A
more typical December pattern is expected thereafter with
tradewind showers moving in.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief periods of SHRA still expected to develop over
western PR and may result in brief MVFR conditions at TJMZ through
08/22z. Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying area
overnight and early Friday morning with VCSH possible across the
Leewards and USVI taf sites. Winds will be ENE at 10-15 kt
decreasing to around 10 knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet are expected across the offshore
Atlantic waters and the local passages. Small craft operators are
urged to exercise caution across the Atlantic waters and local
passages...with winds up to 20 knots across the Caribbean waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 77 87 / 30 30 20 20
STT 77 86 76 86 / 50 50 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
545 AM AST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will hold through at least
midweek. Easterly wave will continue to move west across the
Eastern Caribbean the rest of today. Showers will increase
slightly across the surrounding waters and portions of the islands
as the wave passes just south of Puerto Rico. Trade wind pattern
will return to the islands during the weekend. Low level winds
will increase across the region as a strong high pressure builds
over the Western Atlantic early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR and Water Vapor Satellite imagery showed the
easterly waves moving across the local Caribbean Waters early this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted since midnight
across the offshore Caribbean Waters south of 17N. Only a shower
or two moved across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during
the overnight hours. However...minimal rainfall accumulations were
observed across the local islands with this activity.

Today and tonight...Isolated to scattered showers will move
quickly across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as the
eastern third of Puerto Rico the rest of this morning. As the wave
moves westward...some afternoon convection will develop over the
western Puerto Rico. However...organized convection is not expected
today mainly because a fairly dry and stable air mass prevails at
mid levels.

During the weekend and early next week...Trade wind pattern will
return to the islands. Morning showers will affect the east coastal
sections of the islands at times. Local effects will produce showers
across portions of western Puerto Rico each afternoon. Winds will
increase early next week...resulting in streamers downwind of the
islands. Some of these streamers may affect eastern PR from time
to time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across much of the
flying area through the forecast period. Easterly wave producing
TSRA across the offshore Caribbean waters will continue to move west
and exit the area by noon. VCSH expected early in the fcst across
the USVI/PR terminals. Induced afternoon SHRA over W PR may produce
tempo MVFR at TJMZ. Streamers developing of the USVI could create
brief VCSH/-RA periods early in the afternoon. Winds ENE at 10-15 kt
with sea breeze variations across W PR around 16z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 4-6 feet will slowly subside through Saturday.
However...strong surface high pressure builds north of the local
islands...increasing the trade winds as well as seas early next
week. Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution across
the Caribbean waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 75 / 20 20 20 40
STT 87 76 86 76 / 30 30 30 40

&&