Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL INDUCE A SET OF SURFACE TROUGHS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
MID WEEK...DEEPENING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AS ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WINDS TO A
MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FROM LATE TUESDAY TO LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR IN THE MORNING...THEN AFFECTING JUST ABOUT THE REST OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY JUST
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE MORNING WHILE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN A PATCH OF DRIER AIR TO COME IN EARLY
ON TUESDAY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE WINDS CHANGE TO A NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WHILE WE ARE
IN THE N-NE WIND FLOW...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT
PROBABLY EVEN LESS ACCUMULATION THAT WE EXPECT TODAY...SO FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS START TO SHIFT AGAIN TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED
SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIMITED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EVEN AT ITS
BEST...IS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

SO IN TERMS OF IMPACT...WE EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAYBE EVEN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIN TEMPS
AROUND OR IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH TEMPO MVFR AT
TJBQ UNTIL ABOUT 01/20Z...VCSH AT TJMZ/TJPS/TJSJ. BKN CLOUD LAYER
AT ABOUT FL040 UNTIL AROUND 02/03Z FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ WHILE TJPS
MAY HAVE BKN060 OR SO UNTIL 01/23Z. MOSTLY SCT CLDS ELSEWHERE.
OVERNIGHT VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT TJMZ.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10KT THEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER
01/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ANEGADA PASSAGE. THERE IS EITHER A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS ALL OF THE BEACHES IN THE USVI AND PR EXCEPT SOME
BEACHES IN WESTERN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 74 84 / 20 20 40 40
STT 73 85 73 84 / 20 20 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BY WED AND TUTT LOW WILL FORM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THU-FRI AND MEANDER THRU EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW/SFC
TROF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF THE AREA
AND REGRESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS TUTT LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND THE ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE LOW AND
AT LOWER LEVELS THE NE TRADES WILL BRING FROM TIME TO TIME
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND LIMITED SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO NE TRADES. STEERING WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE BY THE WEEKEND
AND SOME BETTER MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH SOME VCSH...EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FCST PD. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVRNGHT...AT AROUND 6KT OR LESS...INCRSNG TO 10KT TO 15KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 02/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. AS WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY AND EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADES
RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 84 74 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 73 85 73 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY MID WEEK...DEEPENING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE
IS A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
LOCAL WINDS TO A MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO LATE THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY JUST HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THIS IS DUE TO THE LIMITED BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AVAILABLE
TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE EVEN MORE LATE TONIGHT...A
PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WINDS CHANGE TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WHILE WE ARE
IN THE N-NE WIND FLOW...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT
PROBABLY EVEN LESS ACCUMULATION THAT WE EXPECT TODAY...SO FROM
TONIGHT TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS START TO SHIFT AGAIN TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED
SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIMITED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EVEN AT ITS
BEST...IS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

SO IN TERMS OF IMPACT...WE EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAYBE EVEN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIN TEMPS
AROUND OR IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. SCT CU/SC CLD LYRS
FL025... FL050. FEW TOP FL100...ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS. L/LVL WNDS FM NE 10-15 KTS...BCMG FM NW AND INCR W/HGT ABV
FL120. MAX WND 50-60 KTS NR FL350. NO SIG OPERATIONS WX HAZARDS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS EITHER A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE BEACHES OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR AS WELL AS VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AND ALONG ALL THE USVI BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 81 / 30 30 20 20
STT 73 85 73 84 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THRU LATE
TODAY AS TUTT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TUTT WILL
MEANDER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THRU THE WEEKEND. AT LOWER
LEVELS...SFC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRADES OVER THE
ISLANDS. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
TUTT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST OVER THE ISLANDS FRI-SAT VEERING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. COOL TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...NORTHERLY STEERING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI. IN
THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO DEVELOP OVER
AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTH OF THE USVI.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGE
ALOFT HOLDS THRU LATE TODAY AND TUTT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ISLANDS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE LOW...LACKING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE CONFINED TO 850 MB AND COOL AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THRU
AT LEAST FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED SURFACE TOUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THRU THE WEEKEND. BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. L/LVL WNDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE ERLY MRNG...BECOMING FM NE 10-15 KTS AFT 03/13Z.
NO SIG OPERATIONS WX HAZARDS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 73 / 30 20 20 30
STT 85 73 84 72 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND SINK SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER TUTT LOW FORMING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
BY FRIDAY. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO ERODE AND SHIFT
TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL SHIFT WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE AREA ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND
WILL BE BASED ON THE PREVAILING STEERING FLOW AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
SHOWERS IF ANY SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER
LAND BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE OCCASIONAL
EARLY MORNING ADVECTIVE SHOWERS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
DURING THE DAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST LOCAL WINDS ARE TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHERE IT IS TO FURTHER DEVELOP INTO AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. IF THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...MODEL SUGGEST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW ONLY LOOKING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORCING
MY INDUCE ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CARRY SMALL SHRA ACROSS THE WINDWARD COASTS. SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB AFT 03/23Z. WINDS ALF THRU FL095 NE
20 KT INCRG BY 04/12Z TO N 50 KT AT FL135 AND CONTG 50 KT UP THRU
FL250 BFR DECRG.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST
SWELL AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 80 73 84 / 20 20 30 30
STT 73 83 72 82 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED TUTT LOW WILL MEANDER JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS TUTT LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL DETERIORATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY AND MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS IT DETACHES FROM THE
TUTT LOW. MID-UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO ERODE SLOWLY TODAY...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SINKING AND MEANDERING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW AND SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF IT CONTINUED TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
WITH GUSTY WINDS WERE EMBEDDED ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF BRIEF BUT HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATER IN THE DAY...SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP
INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IF THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAFS SITES DURG PERIOD
WITH BRIEF PDS OF VCSH AT SOME TERMINALS. NNE WNDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
EXPECTED BELOW FL100...INCRSNG TO 10 TO 20 KTS AFT 04/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS WILL RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4-6 FEET AND
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES OF PR AND THE
USVI. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN PR ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A MODERATE WIND GENERATED
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 72 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 72 83 73 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE EAST NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEGINNING SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HOLD A
RIDGE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA FROM THERE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODEST LOW PRESSURE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES WILL RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE WEEK
TO CONNECT WITH ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
RESULTING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF MODEST
MOISTURE AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN DURING THE DAY...BUT THOSE
THAT WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP MOVED QUICKLY CONFIRMING THE FLOW OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE AFTERNOON DEVELOPED SHOWERS BEGAN TO
INCREASE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
AND HAVE JUST BEGUN TO PASS THROUGH AND AROUND SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN. THEY WILL BE PASSING IN SPORADIC BANDS. WITH THE GFS
SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING LOW AT THE SURFACE
THIS IS UNWINDING JUST AS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN AROUND 05/09Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH FROM
DECIDEDLY NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN SOUTH AS THE
TROUGH FROM THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND
BETTER IN THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW PASSAGE. OVER PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE NORTHERN WINDWARD SIDE AND THEN FAVOR
THE EASTERN END MORE DURING THE MORNING WHEN THE WIND SWITCHES
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES BY 06/00Z AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
WHEN MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE NEWLY
SWITCHED WIND FLOW ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY CARRYING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MOISTURE THEN
BEGINS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE EACH DAY.

THE SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...AND FAVOR THE NORTHERN COAST WITH WARMING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES DECLINE BUT NOT TO THE MINIMUMS SEEN YESTERDAY AND
TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TJSJ/TIST/TJBQ/TNCM.
LIMITED SHRA/MOUNTAIN OBSC EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES...BRIEFLY AFFECTING TJPS. AFTER 04/23Z BRIEF -SHRA CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TNCM. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN AND NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 18 KT ARE EXPECTED TIL
04/23...BCMG LIGHT-CALM/VRB AFT 04/23.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE RISEN TO 9.2 FEET TWICE TODAY
AND THESE APPEAR TO BE GENERATED BY LOCAL WINDS. THEREFORE EXPECT
THE SAME TO ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO
8 FEET AND PERIODS OF AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN PLACE. ONCE THE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
ABATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SEAS
TO COME DOWN...BUT STILL BE IN THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. SEAS
INCREASE WITH THE WINDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WHILE POSSIBLE...ARE NOT EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 87 / 60 40 40 60
STT 72 83 73 83 / 50 20 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL TODAY. THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE
WATERS BUT SOME OF THEM AFFECTED THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS CAP INVERSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...BEING THE
USVI...EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...AND HOLD MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AS
THIS FEATURE BUILDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ERODE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES. AS A RESULT MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...UNDER RIDGE PATTERN...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI
AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO UNDER THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT PASSING SHRA WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR TJPS.
BRIEF TEMPO -SHRA IS POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SCT CLD COVER WITH THE PASSING SHRA.
THE LOCAL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BCMG NNW-NW AFTER 05/14Z AT 5-10KT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
LIGHT CROSSWINDS ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS IN SAN JUAN AND RINCON HAVE BEEN REPORTING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. ALTHOUGH IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
SEAS MAY REACH 7-8 FT..AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
AND OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 87 74 / 40 40 60 50
STT 84 73 85 75 / 30 70 70 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THRU
THE WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC LOW HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE TUTT
AND DEGRADED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY SUN/MON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AND EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SFC HIGH
ANCHORS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AS SFC LOW MOVED SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WINDS SHIFTED FROM NORTHERLY TO A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PASSING
SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS STEERING WINDS CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT WITH
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.10-0.30 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THE
EARLY ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF PR.
ALSO...SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PR AND WERE SLOWLY
STREAMING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

UNDER A EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THEREFORE...SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI AND THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
HOURS...AND BETTER AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/NW
QUADRANT OF PR THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT SPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER...MOISTURE WILL THEN DROP ONCE
AGAIN WITH PWAT NEAR NORMAL VALUES THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS BUT WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE. SURFACE
HIGH WILL ANCHOR OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC FLOW SHIFTING TO SW OR LGT AND VRBL THRU 06/12Z AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NW OF FA. FLOW FROM SSE WILL COMMENCE ARND
06/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. MINOR
SHRA ACTIVITY WITH SOME HIR TRRN OBSCURED. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
SWITCHES TO NORTHERLY ABV FL125 AND INCREASES TO NNW 40 KT BY
FL300.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 8 PM
AST FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. OFFSHORE
BUOY 41043 INDICATED A NE SWELL BETWEEN 6-8 FEET AROUND 10
SECONDS...THIS WILL KEEP SEAS RELATIVE HIGH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH FACING
BEACHES OF PR AND THE USVI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND LOWER JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 74 89 / 40 60 50 50
STT 73 85 75 87 / 70 70 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST...AS TUTT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS AN INDUCED TROUGH MOVES WEST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL
THEN POOL ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY UNDER THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
USVI AND E PR.

AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ERODE ON MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...
UNDER RIDGE PATTERN...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THOSE DAYS UNDER
THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE NEXT WEEK...AS A RESULT FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS TURNS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THRU 06/12Z AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NW OF FA.
FLOW FROM SSE WILL COMMENCE ARND 06/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 KT. MINOR SHRA ACTIVITY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSC OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR AFT 06/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
A PULSE OF NNW WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY...
INCREASING THE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 5-7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 89 73 / 20 50 40 30
STT 86 73 86 73 / 20 70 70 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND HOLDS THRU
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SFC HIGH ANCHORS OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRIER AIR SLOT MOVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING A BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE DRY SLOT
STREAMED CLOSE TO ST. CROIX AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE WATERS. BY MID AFTERNOON
SOME OF THIS SHOWERS REACHED COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND
VIEQUES...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT THE BAND OF MOISTURE TO MOVE WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND REACH MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OF PR AND
SECTIONS OF THE USVI THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT CONFINED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS TOMORROW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER OVER THE
INTERIOR/NW QUADRANT OF PR. FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT AND BRINGS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...PWAT WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI
AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO HIGH 80S AS WINDS TURN MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH A DRY SLOT STRETCHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND ALONG
THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR IN SAINT CROIX DUE TO
PASSING SHOWERS BEFORE 06/22Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS INCRG BTWN 07/06Z-16Z IN PR. WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST
NEAR THE SURFACE AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS...EASTERLY NEAR FL100 AT 5
KNOTS AND NORTHERLY AT 7 KNOTS NEAR FL150. FROM THERE THEY INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST REACHING 40 KNOTS NEAR FL400.
WINDS NEAR THE SFC WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AFT 07/12Z EXCEPT FOR
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE AS SEAS UP TO 6
FEET ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT TO MODERATE ESE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND A MODERATE LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 20 40 0 30
STT 78 79 78 79 / 40 40 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AS TUTT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER EAST WHILE WEAKENING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PASSING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI...E PR AND ATLC
WATERS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN ERODE LATE TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...UNDER RIDGE PATTERN...ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI
AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
WITH THE DRIEST DAY BEING FRIDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THOSE DAYS UNDER THE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AFFECTING MAINLY TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. HOWEVER
MOSTLY VICINITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET BECOMING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ABOVE 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC... CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL... ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 74 / 30 10 20 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PARCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 89 75 / 20 10 20 30
STT 84 76 84 74 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 89 75 89 / 10 20 30 30
STT 75 85 74 83 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 88 73 / 20 30 30 10
STT 86 74 86 74 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER WISE...NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. IS NOT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...AS TRADE
WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 09/20Z...ACROSS THE U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TAF SITES AFTER 09/23Z. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS ARE STARTING
TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING AROUND 2
FEET. IN ADDITION...THE SWELLS ACTION IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PEAKING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 88 73 88 / 30 30 10 20
STT 74 86 74 86 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION. AT LOW LEVELS...
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPS BELOW ONE INCH. BESIDE OF THE LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A WETTER AND UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS RIDGE COLLAPSES AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/SHEARLINE APPROACHES PR AND THE USVI FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...-SHRA/SHRA CAN DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN PR BETWEEN 17Z-22Z IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF
JBQ/JMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE
ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS...SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH SWELL HAS PEAKED...ADDITIONAL PULSES
OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND LIFE THREATENING CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 87 74 / 30 10 10 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 30 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
AT MID-UPPER LEVELS COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND A SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS APPEARS TO BE TODAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH AROUND 18Z...
THIS IS A 20%-25% PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND A SERIES OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 REGISTERED ANOTHER PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF 7-8 FT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL FILTER ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND NORTHERN USVI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 85 74 / 10 20 20 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEEP POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE PUSHED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THESE PASSING
SHOWERS FAVORED THE WINDWARD AREAS...WHERE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF NORTHEAST PR SO
FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THESE
MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL EXPECTING
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CAP INVERSION HOLDING
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY CAN NOT
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE RIDGE FLATTENS...MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...THE WETTEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
ON MONDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SHRA EMBEDDED ON TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO EASTERN PR THRU AT LEAST 12Z. SCT CLD
LYRS FL030...FL070 AND MTN TOP OBSCD AT EASTERN PR LIKELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 17Z-22Z SHRA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PR...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ/JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE
EAST AT 10-20 KTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS. BREAKING WAVES UP TO 7 FEET ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PR
AND CULEBRA WILL KEEP THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR THE NORTH
FACING BEACHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A STRONG HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 74 84 73 / 30 50 50 40