Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

still heavy rain and wind in St Maarten, although I think it is more wind than rain

Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles
Princess Juliana International Airport
latitude: 18-03N, longitude: 063-07W, elevation: 4 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 40 minutes ago, at 15:00 UTCWind 25 kt from the Southeast with gusts up to 41 ktTemperature Pressure Visibility: 2000 m Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft, Towering cumulus. heavy rain

It's election time in St Maarten but the winds took care of all the election signs that are plastered all over the island.

[Gustywind]

Numerous floodings have been reported in Guadeloupe even small muslides. If i've more infos about i will keep you informed.

Floods: worsening traffic in Sainte-Anne

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... 390261.php

Heavy rains have caused flooding in recent hours in the district of Valletta in Sainte-Anne. Several flooded streets are closed to traffic to return to normal: the streets of General de Gaulle, Cordiale Mathurin, Pierre pale. Traffic on the boulevard Hégésippe Ibéné is disrupted causing slowdowns.
Caution is strongly recommended.

[Gustywind]

Our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe have back off the orange alert to yellow. The Northern Leewards stays in yellow.
Waouw Barbara, only 7 millimeters reported at Gustavia Airport ... that's not beneficial rains, let's hope that during the next couple hours things will change a bit.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[msbee]

hi Gusty
all quiet now in st maarten.
everything is shut down though. it was just too stormy to venture out.
https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/5 ... ef=Default

We had ongoing squalls for a couple of hours but we got more wind than rain. It was definitely tropical force winds and it howled nonstop.
things were flying.
no widespread flooding though. The flooding appears much worse in Guadeloupe.

Luis, get ready. and be careful. This storm packs a punch. I hope there is no serious flooding in PR and I hope people are warned properly.

[Gustywind]

hi Gusty
all quiet now in st maarten.
everything is shut down though. it was just too stormy to venture out.

We had ongoing squalls for a couple of hours but we got more wind than rain. It was definitely tropical force winds and it howled nonstop.
things were flying.
no widespread flooding though. The flooding appears much worse in Guadeloupe.

Luis, get ready. and be careful. This storm packs a punch. I hope there is no serious flooding in PR and I hope people are warned properly.

Good report and very interresting report Barbara, thanks to you!
Sun is trying to shine here, winds are calm, no rains but numerous clouds a bit a gret but no more in spite some floodings in the island. Looks like and IMO Guadeloupe and maybe the Northern Leewards could pass in green code tonight. But we stay vigilant, even if the worst seems behind us even maybe you too in Sint Marteen, i hope so
Luis be prepared in case of, 99L does not want to give up

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherBug/status/768521323572293632

[msbee]

are you getting it now, Luis?

[msbee]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherBug/status/768521323572293632

yep, that's what it was like here LOL

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave located over the forecast area will
continue to produce showers and thunderstorms through tonight.
Residual moisture associated with the trailing edge of the
tropical wave will likely bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday. Moisture will gradually diminish on
Friday, with drier than normal conditions expected during the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the
tropical wave have been affecting the local islands since this
morning. The heaviest rainfall was observed across portions of the
Central Interior and Northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon. Rainfall
accumulations of 1.5 to 2.5 inches were estimated by the doppler
radar in portions of Aguada, Lares, Utuado and St. Croix.

At this time...visible satellite imagery showed dry air mass filtering
from the Caribbean waters. As a result...the shower and thunderstorm
activity has been diminished significantly over Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. If this trend continues the Flash Flood
Watch could be cancelled this evening.

As the tropical wave moves away from the local region...moisture
will gradually diminish through Friday. Then...fair weather conditions
expected during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR or IFR conds still possible in and around the
Leeward...USVI and JSJ terminals as a tropical wave moves across the
area. Wx conds expected to slowly improve across the Leeward
terminals late tonight. However, periods of SHRA/TSRA will remain
possible at USVI and JSJ tonight through at least early Thursday as
this feature moves away. Southerly winds 10-20 knots but higher and
variably in TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A strong tropical wave will bring hazardous winds and
seas to the east and northeast portions of the local waters this
afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas will diminish later tonight
and Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 88 / 90 60 40 50
STT 78 84 79 86 / 80 60 40 40

[msbee]

good news!
At this time...visible satellite imagery showed dry air mass filtering
from the Caribbean waters. As a result...the shower and thunderstorm
activity has been diminished significantly over Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. If this trend continues the Flash Flood
Watch could be cancelled this evening.

[Gustywind]

good news!
At this time...visible satellite imagery showed dry air mass filtering
from the Caribbean waters. As a result...the shower and thunderstorm
activity has been diminished significantly over Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. If this trend continues the Flash Flood
Watch could be cancelled this evening.

that was my feeling in the last post hope that Guadeloupe will back off this yellow alert like you in the Northern .

[Gustywind]

No changes : Meteo-France maintains the yellow level for Guadeloupe, the Northern Leewards. Surprise... Martinica is this afternoon Under a yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms as its Neighbors.
http://www.meteo.fr/extranets/page/inde ... /id/133576

[Gustywind]

Interresting weather report from our Pro Mets of Meteo France Guadeloupe.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

At Gustavia (St Marteen):
T°max: 28,5°C.
Rainfall in 24h: 15, 2 millimeters ( 4pm-4pm)
Gust max: 87 Km/h.

[Gustywind]

Interresting weather report from our Pro Mets of Meteo France Guadeloupe. Looks like Guadeloupe have been well showered and that's the good news
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

RAINFALL:

Since the beginning of this weather event, values between 100 et 160 mm have been reported on Deshaies and la Désirade. Similars values have been reported too between le Moule and Saint-François. Elsewhere in the island, rainfall values have reached 20 to 80 millimeters.
Gustywind.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong Tropical Wave located north of Hispaniola will
continue to move away from the area today. Trailing moisture
associated with the wave will aid in the development of showers
and thunderstorms today. A drier airmass will encompass the region
during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong tropical wave was located early this morning
north of Hispaniola. Latest satelite images and doppler radar show a
big area of showers and thunderstorms just offshore the coastal
waters of northwest Puerto Rico. Luckily...this area was moving
away from the area. Another showers were seen across the eastern
half of Puerto Rico. Lingering moisture associated with the wave
will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
today...mainly in the afternoon hours...along the central interior
and north sections of Puerto Rico.

An improvement in the weather conditions are expected by the
weekend...as a drier airmass encompass the local region from the
east. As a result...chance of showers will be limited across the
western interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across most taf sites through
the morning hours. Periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected across TJSJ...TJMZ and TJBQ in
SHRA/TSRA. Low level winds will be mainly southeast at 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoy continues to indicate seas up to 8 feet
across the offshore Atlantic waters. Therefore...Small Craft
advisory will continue in effect for these waters until at least
10 am AST. Elsewhere...Small Craft should exercise caution due to
seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 89 78 / 60 40 50 20
STT 88 80 87 79 / 60 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
131 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong tropical wave located north of Hispaniola this
afternoon will continue to move west northwestward and away from
the area tonight. Trailing moisture associated with the wave will
aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
region tonight. A drier airmass will encompass the region during
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong tropical wave that affected the region
yesterday will continue to move west northwestward and away from
the region tonight and Friday. The lingering moisture left behind
the tropical wave will remain across the local islands tonight and
Friday. This moisture will continue to produce isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the U.S.
Virgin islands and Eastern Puerto Rico tonight. For tomorrow
afternoon the combination of this moisture with daytime heating
and local effect will induce the development of some convection
across western interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. An
upper level ridge will build across the northeast Caribbean by the
weekend. This feature will result in a general improvement in the
weather conditions...as a drier airmass encompass the local region
from the east. No significant weather feature are expected to
affect the region for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected across most of the TAF
sites. VCSH still possible across the USVI and Leeward terminals
through tonight. Brief MVFR conds possible at TJBQ between until
22Z. Winds will prevail from the SE at 15-20 kts below FL200.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to improve across the
regional waters. Seas of 4-6 feet will subside to 3-5 feet on
Friday. For the weekend...a ENE swell of 3-4 feet generated by
Hurricane Gaston will reach the local Atlantic waters and
Caribbean waters. No small craft advisories are anticipated over
the next 5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 40 50 20 30
STT 80 87 79 89 / 40 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
510 AM AST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT low now located across the central Atlantic, will
shift west-southwestward into the Greater Antilles while weakening.
As this feature moves away from the local islands early next week,
an upper level ridge will build across the forecast area. A moist
east southeast wind flow will continue to prevail today, promoting
shower and thunder activity across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to variably cloudy skies prevailed overnight and
early this morning across the local islands. Showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms were observed across the Caribbean waters with a few of
them affecting the local islands. Coastal temperatures were in the
upper 70s to low 80s with southeasterly winds at 10 mph or less.

Approaching TUTT will meander northeast of the forecast area through
Sunday. Although TUTT location will tend to favor a convergent
pattern across the area, the east southeast wind flow will continue
to advect enough low level moisture to result in showers across S/SE
PR and Saint Croix this morning, followed by afternoon convection
over and northwest of the Cordillera Central. A similar weather
pattern is expected Sat-Sun, but coverage should decrease as low
level moisture decreases. This ESE wind flow will also promote
warm temperatures along the northern slope of Puerto Rico.

As the TUTT low relocates to our west on Monday, a ridge pattern
aloft will build across the area from the east northeast. Under
building upper level ridge, moderate easterly winds and precipitable
water near or below normal values, a seasonable weather pattern
will prevail Mon-Thu with a few passing showers across windward
areas in the morning and evening hours and locally induced
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over and west of the
Cordillera Central.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers will affect TIST/TISX/TJPS/TJSJ through the
morning hours. SHRA are expected to increase in frequency aft 2610z
over land, then afternoon convection may produce mountain
obscuration across the Cordillera Central. In addition, between
26/17-26/22z...periods of MVFR conditions with mountain obscurations
can be expected over TJMZ and TJBQ. Low level winds will be mainly
southeast at 10 to 15 kts and locally higher inland around SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3-5 feet expected during the next few days. Small
easterly swell by TC Gaston is expected to reach the coastal waters
of all islands on Saturday. No small craft advisories are anticipated
over the next 5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 30 30 30 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 50 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The presence of tropical storm Gaston well northeast
of the region across the Central atlantic...and the broad area of
low pressure with associated tropical wave extending across the
western caribbean and the windward passage, will continue to induce
a fairly moist southeast wind flow across the region today and into
the upcoming weekend. Weak high pressure ridge aloft will continue
to shift westward over the next few days as a tutt low and associated
trough will retrogress west southwest and reach the Northeastern
Caribbean late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The moist southeasterly wind flow and weak upper
level diffluence across the area will continue to aid in the
formation of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Activity should
then diminish over land during the late evening, leaving variably
cloudy to partly cloudy skies. However...by early morning, expect
a light to moderate southeast wind flow to bring periods of passing
showers to east and southeast portions of the islands. Some showers
may produce moderate to locally heavy rainfall, but will be of short
duration. On Saturday afternoon... available moisture along with local
and diurnal effects will give way to showers and isolated thunderstorm
development across parts of the central and west to northwest sections
of Puerto Rico. Brief periods of passing showers can be expected mainly
over the west end of the U.S Virgin Islands steered by the prevailing
southeast wind flow.

For the rest of the weekend and into Monday of next week...tutt induced
low level trough will move across the area in tandem with tutt low which
is forecast to move across the Northeastern Caribbean by Sunday. This
along with the still fairly moist southeast wind flow will give way
to additional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some of the activity
will be locally enhanced across parts of the interior and northern
half of PR including parts of the San Juan metro area. Conditions will
gradually improve by Tuesday of next week as moisture convergence across
the region gradually more easterly in response to high pressure building
north of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conds likely at TJBQ the rest of the afternoon.
TJMZ...TJSJ and TJPS will experience VCTS at times between 17Z-21Z.
Mountain obscurations will continue across the Cordillera Central
until at least 22Z. Elsewhere...VFR conds expected with -SHRA from
time to time. SE winds of 15-25 kt will prevail below FL100.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3-5 feet will continue overnight through Saturday.
For the rest of the weekend...a small ENE swell of 3-4 feet generated
by Hurricane Gaston will reach the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean
waters. No small craft advisories are anticipated over the next
5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 91 / 30 30 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
613 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The influence of Tropical Cyclone Gaston and a broad area of Low
pressure near Cuba, will continue to induce a moist southeast
wind flow across the region through the weekend. An approaching
TUTT Low will meander northeast of the local Archipelago through
the weekend and into the upcoming week.

&&
Shower and thunderstorm activity slowly diminished overnight and
most of the activity was detected across the local waters. As a
result, pleasant temperatures with cloudy skies and limited shower
activity prevailed at the islands of PR, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the early morning hours. However, under the
prevailing moist southeasterly wind flow, expect showers across
the windward sections of South and East PR and St Croix and St
Thomas during the morning hours. Although the approaching TUTT Low
is not position in the best location, there is enough diffluence
with good ventilation, which will lead to showers and thunderstorms
across the local region late this morning and into the afternoon
hours. Due to the previous rainfall events, the potential for
localized flooding and mudslides is real with any persistent
moderate to heavy shower activity.

For Sunday through Tuesday...the TUTT Low with it associated
induce surface trough is forecast to continues its path across
the Northeast Caribbean Sea on Sunday. This along with the
persistent moist southeasterly wind flow will give way to
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. Some of
the activity will be locally enhanced across parts of the interior
and northern half of PR including parts of the San Juan metro
area. Conditions will gradually improve by Tuesday of the upcoming
week as moisture convergence across the region gradually more
easterly in response to high pressure building north of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR...however -SHRA/SHRA will affect TIST/TISX/TJPS/TJSJ
and coastal waters btw E PR and Northern Leeward islands til
27/14z. Afternoon convection will lead to mountain top obscuration
across the Cordillera Central of PR btw 27/17z-27/22z. Periods of
MVFR conditions with increasing cloudiness is expected in and
around TJMZ and TJBQ with VCTY SHRA/ISOLD TSRA due to the aftn
convection. Low level winds will be mainly southeast at 10 to 15
kts and locally higher inland around ISOLD TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A small but long ENE swell, generated by Tropical Cyclone Gaston is
expected to fill in across the Atlantic waters and Anegada Passage
by early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
continue across the region today, therefore exercise caution
across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 50 40 40 20
STT 89 82 89 82 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
136 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical storm Gaston well northeast of the region
across the Central atlantic...and the broad area of low pressure
with associated tropical wave extending across the western caribbean
and the southwest atlantic, will continue to induce a moist southeast
wind flow across the region through the rest of the weekend. Weakening
high pressure ridge aloft will shift westward over the next few days
as a tutt low will retrogress westward and reach the Northeastern Caribbean
later today and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The moist southeasterly wind flow and upper level
diffluence along with local and diurnal effects will continue to
provide good instability and upper level support for the formation
of showers and thunderstorms across the region during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Some of the activity will be enhanced and
may lead to urban and small stream flooding. The afternoon convection
should diminish over land during the early evening leaving variably
cloudy to partly cloudy skies. By early morning however the dominant
southeast wind flow and proximity of the upper low will again enhance
shower development over the coastal waters and bring periods of passing
showers to east and southeast portions of the islands. Some showers
thunderstorms may produce brief periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall.

For the remainder of the day on Sunday and through Monday...A
tutt induced low level trough will move across the area in tandem
with the tutt low which is forecast to move across the Northeastern
Caribbean and local region. This along with the still fairly moist
southeast wind flow will give way to additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Some of the activity will be locally enhanced across
parts of the interior and northern half of PR including parts of
the San Juan metro area.

Based on the latest model guidance and recent satellite imagery, conditions
are expected to gradually improve by Tuesday as moisture convergence
will diminish across the region, and winds will become more easterly
in response to a surface high pressure ridge building just north of
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly vfr conditions expected over most TAF sites...However
isold tstms will affect vcnty of TJPS/TJSJ/TJBQ and TJMZ through 27/23z.
A few shwrs/tstms could result in mountain top obscuration across the
Cordillera Central of PR through this evening. Low level winds will
be mainly east at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts mainly with isold tstms.

&&

.MARINE...A small but long ENE swell, generated by Tropical Cyclone Gaston is
will continue to affect the local Atlantic waters and Anegada overnight
through Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms with areas of locally heavy rainfall
and dangerous lightning will remain possible across the regional waters
through the late evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 30 40 20 30
STT 82 89 82 88 / 40 40 30 30