Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19081 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:08 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
329 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers have formed over the Cordillera Central from
Juana Diaz to Sabana Grande and near Cayey and Cidra and in the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase later tonight. A very dangerous Category 4 hurricane will
pass just south of Saint Croix and Vieques and directly impact
Puerto Rico. At this time all of them are expected to experience
eyewall winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. After Thursday, heavy
rain is expected to continue on and off through Saturday as rain
bands cross through the area and the hurricane pulls tropical
moisture out of the deep tropics across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...
Weak bands of drier air are slowly being squeezed out between
moisture associated with an upper level low south of Haiti and
major hurricane Maria. At this time the circulation of Maria
dominates the entire weather pattern in the local area and will
continue to do so through Sunday. Moisture will increase
dramatically from 1.7 inches of precipitable water to as much as
2.9 inches of precipitable water between Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning as rain bands from hurricane Maria become more
frequent and the center approaches. With the current track and
expected intensity of Category 4 (possibly as early as 5 PM AST
this afternoon), Maria will bring catastrophic winds to all the
land areas in the forecast area beginning on Tuesday afternoon.
Major to record rains and flooding are expected to accompany
Maria. Flash flood watches will be issued with the 5 PM AST
forecast package. Flooding could continue beyond the passage of
Maria Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Although the winds of Hurricane Maria will have left the area by
Thursday afternoon, moderate to fresh southeast flow will continue
through Friday. Bands of moisture will converge in this flow
Thursday afternoon through Sunday with additional moisture
traveling in on weak troughs that merge over the Leeward islands
on Sunday morning and arrive Monday morning. Drier air is expected
with the arrival of a low to mid level ridge Tuesday. Rain and
showers will taper off Thursday through Sunday, but the risk of
flooding will continue with showers and thunderstorms and it will
take less rain to initiate flooding and landslides than will have
been delivered by hurricane Maria.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail across PR
terminals, though some -SHRA/TSRA may drift into the vicinity of
TJPS through 19/22z. Similar conditions are expected at USVI
terminals, with VCSH possible at TIST. Outer rain bands associated
with Hurricane Maria are already moving through TNCM and TKPK,
and have shown increasing ENE winds with SHRA due to Maria`s
proximity. Winds will also increase out of the NE at USVI
terminals late in the period, but significant increases in winds
or lowering of flight categories should hold off until just beyond
the end of the 18z TAF period, but mountain obscurations could
begin as early as 19/06Z after the current convection clears.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin to increase overnight with the approach
of Hurricane Maria and tropical storm force winds will be in our
area of responsibility around 8 AM AST and will have covered all
of our marine area by Wednesday afternoon. The eyewall of
hurricane Maria is expected to enter the southeast corner of the
forecast area Tuesday afternoon and exit the northwest corner
Thursday morning with sustained winds in excess of 110 knots.
Seas of 20 to 30 feet with occasional seas over 40 feet expected
with passage. There would be no chance of successful passage
through this storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 86 78 82 / 40 90 100 100
STT 82 85 77 82 / 50 90 100 100
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19082 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:45 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
606 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Extremely dangerous hurricane Maria will continue to
move west northwest and will approach the local area late tonight
into early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Fast moving passing showers affected the north and
east sections of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. This activity was associated with
the first external bands of Hurricane Maria. It was very humid and
warm overnight with the minimum temperature dropping only to 83
degrees. The winds were mainly northeast at 15 to 20 mph.

Main feature is extremely and potentially catastrophic hurricane
Maria which regained category 5 strength. At 5am AST estimated
maximum sustained winds were 160 mph. It was located around 275
miles southeast of Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands as early as
tonight. Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take
necessary actions to secure your home or business. When making
safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact
forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties which
must be taken into account. Be safe!

&&

.AVIATION...The TAFS today will be a mixed bag with some location
experience tropical storm wind gusts starting this morning at
terminals TKPK and TNCM. Hurricane Maria`s rainbands will affect
other sites later this morning and through the evening. This
afternoon tropical storm force wind will start spreading from west
to east starting with the Virgin Islands terminals sites TKPK, and
TNCM, this activity will move to terminals TJSJ, TJPS, TJBQ and
TJMZ. Sustained Tropical Storm force winds will most likely start at
TNCM and TKPK by 12z-14z, and Tropical Storm force gusts to the USVI
by 16z. Similar winds are not likely to occur at PR terminals before
18Z. Tropical storm force winds will prevail across all terminals
sites starting at 18Z with Hurricane force winds also occurring by
20/0Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin to increase this afternoon with the
approach of Hurricane Maria and tropical storm force winds will be
in our area of responsibility around 8 PM AST and will have
covered all of our marine area by Wednesday afternoon. The eyewall
of hurricane Maria is expected to enter the southeast corner of
the forecast area this evening and exit the northwest corner
Thursday afternoon with sustained winds in excess of 130 knots.
Seas of 20 to 30 feet with occasional seas over 40 feet expected
with the passage. There would be no chance of successful passage
through this storm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flash flood watch is in effect for all Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By Early this evening and continuing
into Wednesday the very heavy rain of the core of the hurricane
will spread extreme amounts of rain over the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico. Please refer to latest hydrology products.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 82 78 / 90 100 100 100
STT 85 77 82 79 / 90 100 100 100
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19083 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:45 am

Thinking of our friend, cycloneye (Luis) and hoping he is OK in Puerto Rico
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19084 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:48 pm

msbee wrote:Thinking of our friend, cycloneye (Luis) and hoping he is OK in Puerto Rico

OH YEAH :( :cry: barbara! Let's hope that everyday; still thinking that he will be with us at the end of the month! :D :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19085 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:23 pm

You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19086 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:04 pm

abajan wrote:You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867

wow! It's a tropical wave passing through?
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19087 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:00 pm

msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867

wow! It's a tropical wave passing through?

Yep. I don't know the full story, but I think there's a HIGH to our northeast and a LOW over South America, and the pressure difference is causing the high winds. I can recall a tropical wave in the late 1980's having wind gusts of 60 mph.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19088 Postby msbee » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:12 am

Has anyone heard from Luis (cycloneye) yet?
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19089 Postby abajan » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:30 am

msbee wrote:Has anyone heard from Luis (cycloneye) yet?
Unfortunately, no. Not sure if any of the Storm2k admins was able to contact him by phone, though.

On a brighter note, it's good to see the Maho Beach Webcam back online! 8-)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19090 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:59 pm

I am back my Caribbean friends.I am fine as well my family.I can tell that it was a very horrific experience that I dont want to see again.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19091 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:59 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 PM AST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A shear line across Puerto Rico and north of the U.S.
Virgin Islands will be taken northwest a short distance by
several high pressures invading the Western Atlantic. As mid-level
high pressure forms just north of the area on Wednesday, moisture,
clouds and showers will return to the area Wednesday through
Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...

GOES 16 satellite imagery shows an area of disturbed weather to
the southwest of Puerto Rico that is moving off to the northeast
and has brought heavy rain, frequent lightning and flooding to
portions of Puerto Rico. Currently the shear line is positioned
across northwest Puerto Rico with converging southerly winds
ahead of the boundary. Although stability will increase this
evening, light to moderate rain will continue, diminishing, and
some inundation of low-lying and poorly drained areas will
continue.

Although moisture begins to decrease in the mid-levels tonight,
lingering low-level moisture will drive another round of showers
and thunderstorms during the day Monday. Tuesday the trough of
low pressure will begin to pull away from the forecast area and
allow an upper level ridge of high pressure to nose in over the
region. This ridge will give the islands a brief reprieve from the
heavy rainfall by limiting the influx of deep tropical moisture
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The GFS is showing
a line of drier air at 700 mb coinciding with a ridge of high
pressure that extenuates from the tropical Atlantic into the
Caribbean and then northwest across Puerto Rico. Model data is
showing precipitable water values falling to between 1.25 to 1.50
inches which is in the 25th percentile. This in contrast with
values that were in the 75th percentile the last four days.



.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Moisture begins to return around a mid level high pressure
Wednesday and coupled with an approaching trough from the east,
winds will turn somewhat northeasterly. Although a mid to upper
level ridge will hold across the forecast area much of the
forecast period, these easterly winds will continue to bring
patches of low level moisture across the local isles to keep the
chance of passing showers each day. Therefore, expect a seasonable
weather pattern with passing showers across U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico as well as limited shower activity across
western Puerto Rico Wednesday through Saturday. The upper
level ridge will begin to erode during the upcoming weekend and
lower levels clouds will allow some more sun and hence the
possibility of increasing thunderstorms in interior and western
Puerto Rico.


&&

.AVIATION...

Aviation...SHRA/ and diminishing TSRA expected to continue across
the local area thru 20/02Z, causing VCSH/VCTS across the
terminals with TEMPO MVFR conds possible at TJBQ and TJMZ thru
20/02Z. VFR conds to continue thru 20/15Z with CIGS BLO FL120 and
mtn obscurations. Southerly winds sfc to FL200 gradly shifting to
SE 10 to 20 kt by 20/18Z. Maximum winds WSW 30 kt around FL400
thru 20/18Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas 3 to 5 feet possibly 6 in the outer Atlantic waters
by Wednesday. Seas somewhat lower in the Caribbean. Small craft
advisory conditions not expected during the next 7 days in the
forecast area, but 7 foot seas possible north of the area by
Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 60 60 20 30
STT 78 85 79 86 / 50 50 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19092 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:06 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A shearline just to the northwest of the local area is
now dissipating, but above normal moisture will remain over the
local area today. Winds will be southeasterly today but will turn
easterly as a surface high pressure moved over the western
Atlantic, north of the local islands. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected today, however, upper ridge will dominate the local
area starting on Tuesday, stabilizing the local atmosphere just
as drier air moves in, which will cause a decrease in shower and
thunderstorm activity, even after moisture increases slightly on
Wednesday since the upper ridge will remain for the next several
days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the forecast
area overnight and early this morning. Showers were observed
across the local waters but none over land areas. Coastal
temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s under light and variable
winds.

Lingering moisture associated with a dissipating shear line will
continue to prevail across the local isles today. Although latest
guidance continues to suggest precipitable water decreasing somewhat
across the area as well as less coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, there still a high chance for showers/thunderstorms
to form in the southeasterly flow off of El Yunque and into the San
Juan Metro Area and over the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico. Due
to already saturated soils, any prolonged period of heavy rainfall
will result urban flooding and sharp rises along small streams and
rivers as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Although a
mid to upper level ridge will build across the forecast area and
hold through the forecast period, easterly winds will continue to
bring patches of low level moisture to keep the chance of passing
showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, expect a seasonable
weather pattern with passing showers across USVI and E PR as well as
limited shower activity across west Puerto Rico both days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

Late in the workweek into early next week, the available moisture
will be rather variable, with patches of moisture and patches of
drier air moving through the local area generally speaking. There
will be a day with near normal moisture then a day with lower
moisture followed by higher moisture. This pattern of somewhat
patchy moisture normally causes brief and isolated showers in
the morning and overnight hours with locally induced showers in
the afternoon but generally not very intense or widespread, which
will likely be the case late this week and at least into the
weekend since an upper high pressure is expected to prevail over
the local area. The expected equivalent potential temperature
indicates mostly stable conditions as well, therefore at this
time we expect some but not much weather late this week into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected through 20/16z. SHRA/TSRA
expected in the afternoon to result in MVFR conds in and around
JSJ/JBQ and JMZ through 20/22z. Elsewhere VCSH expected. ESE winds
at around 10 knots with some sea breeze variations, becoming light
and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected today across the local
waters for the next few days. Winds will be up to 10 knots today
from the southeast, increasing to up to 15 knots from the east on
Tuesday and for the next several days after that. There is a
moderate risk of rip currents today along the northeast, north and
northwest coast of mainland Puerto Rico and Culebra. Small
sections in southwest Puerto Rico also has a moderate risk of rip
currents as well as the northern and eastern beaches of Vieques,
the north and northwest beaches of Saint Tomas and Cramer Park in
Saint Croix.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 90 76 / 50 20 20 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 50 20 20 30
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