Caribbean - Central America Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19281 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:37 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
551 AM AST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will fade in the western Atlantic just
north of the local area over the weekend and into early next
week allowing winds to diminish and hazardous marine conditions
to subside. Moisture will peak on Sunday with increasing showers
until then. A gradual drying trend will then continue through next
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Satellite imagery detected patches of clouds approaching the islands
from the northeast. As these clouds approached, the Terminal Doppler
radar indicated showers with periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain. Through the morning hours, most of the activity is expected to
affect the local Atlantic Waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques,
Culebra as well the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico.
Although rainfall amount are expected to be minimal, brief periods
of heavy showers could produce hazardous driving conditions. Showers
are forecast to develop across the interior and western sections
around noon, but some brief trade wind showers will remain possible
across the St Thomas, Culebra, the north and east Puerto Rico.

A strong but fading surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will continue to dominate the local weather conditions
through at least the upcoming week. An upper level trough will
extend southwest over Hispanola through the weekend. Although the
surface moisture is not significant, the surface high pressure
will continue to push patches of moisture across the local
islands, which will result in scattered to numerous showers mostly
during the overnight and early morning hours. Then during the
afternoon hours, this moisture will combine with the upper level
dynamic to result in showers over the western portions of Puerto
Rico as well as downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands each
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
Surface high pressure will fade in the western Atlantic just
north of the local area early next week, but will be replaced by a
second high moving out of the eastern United States Wednesday
through Friday. The rumpled remains of a cold front will pass
through the area Monday through Tuesday next week with continued
shower activity, even while precipitable water values trend
downward from Sunday`s peak. This will be due to drying at the top
of the lower levels of the atmosphere. A drier and much more
stable air mass will be ushered in behind the remnants of the cold
front passage on Tuesday. This will limit shower activity area-
wide. Moist air behind a second front on Friday of next week will
prepare the area for possibly more shower activity and a more
vigorous pre-frontal trough early in the week after next.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA will continue to move across TJSJ/TIST/TNCM/TKPK
through the morning hours. Some of these SHRA will produce brief BKN
ceilings btwn FL020-FL050 at these sites. VFR conds are expected
elsewhere. SHRA will develop near TJMZ and in the VCTY of TJPS
during the afternoon (btwn 23/16-23z). ENE winds 10-15 kt
increasing at 15-20 knots with higher gusts aft 23/12z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to subside slowly this evening through
Sunday, such that by Sunday night all small craft advisories
should be down. Swell from a strong low in the northern Atlantic
mid week next week will send another surge of swell into the area
Wednesday night and Thursday when small craft advisories will
again be needed for the Atlantic waters and passages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 82 73 / 60 60 60 60
STT 83 72 83 72 / 60 60 60 60
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19282 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:51 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
404 PM AST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will hold across the western
Atlantic just north of the area while weakening over the weekend
and into early next week. As a result winds are expected to
diminish and hazardous marine conditions to subside. Moisture will
increase during the weekend and until early next week. A gradual
drying trend will then expected by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
Latest radar observations as well as satellite images depicted
small patches of cloudiness and showers across the Atlantic waters
moving from time to time across the local islands. This activity
will continue to affect mostly the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques,
Culebra as well the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico
tonight and Saturday morning with brief periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain. Due to the rapid movement of the showers, rainfall
amount are expected to be minimal but will produce hazardous
driving conditions. Some showers are also expected to develop
across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico each
afternoon. A strong surface high pressure will hold across the
western Atlantic north of region while weakening until early next
week. This feature will remain as the main weather feature across
the local islands during the rest of the weekend and through
early next week.

An upper level trough is expected to remain from the Atlantic
waters southwestward across Hispaniola and Jamaica through the
weekend. The surface high pressure will continue to push patches
of moisture across the local islands, which will result in
showers activity across the region mostly during the overnight
and early morning hours. Then during the afternoon hours, this
moisture will combine with the upper level dynamic to result in
showers over the western portions of Puerto Rico as well as
downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...from previous
discussion... Surface high pressure will fade in the western
Atlantic just north of the local area early next week, but will be
replaced by a second high moving out of the eastern United States
Wednesday through Friday. The rumpled remains of a cold front
will pass through the area Monday through Tuesday next week with
continued shower activity, even while precipitable water values
trend downward from Sunday`s peak. This will be due to drying at
the top of the lower levels of the atmosphere. A drier and much
more stable air mass will be ushered in behind the remnants of the
cold front passage on Tuesday. This will limit shower activity
area- wide. Moist air behind a second front on Friday of next week
will prepare the area for possibly more shower activity and a
more vigorous pre-frontal trough early in the week after next.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
cycle with VCSH at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well as
JSJ/JBQ. Isolated SHRA/-SHRA in and around JMZ through 23/22z. ENE
winds 15-20 knots with higher gusts, becoming at around 12 knots
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to subside slowly tonight through
Sunday, such that by Sunday night all small craft advisories
should be down. Swell from a strong low in the northern Atlantic
mid week next week will send another surge of swell into the area
Wednesday night and Thursday when small craft advisories will
again be needed for the Atlantic waters and passages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 83 / 60 60 60 60
STT 72 83 72 83 / 60 60 60 60

&&
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19283 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:44 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...At the surface, high pressure system will continue to
dominates the local region through early next week. At upper
level, a deep upper level trough (TUTT) will linger west of the
area through Tuesday. This will result in favorable conditions
for the development of showers and even thunderstorms throughout
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday... Numerous showers moved from
the Atlantic Waters across St Thomas/St John, as well as across
the northern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico overnight. Shower
activity is expected to continue across these areas through the
morning hours. Brief periods of heavy showers are possible with
this activity. As a result some areas may observe ponding of water
along roads and poorly drained.

A mid to upper level trough with a subtropical jet over/near the
islands will support afternoon convection mainly across the interior
and southwest sections of Puerto Rico. The GFS GDI is showing the
potential for thunderstorm formation Saturday and Sunday. For that
reason, thunderstorms were added to the forecast package for
Saturday and Sunday afternoon. The islands will remain in the
divergent area of this upper level feature through at least early
next week. Therefore, expect a gradual increase in shower activity
with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms across the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...Mid to upper level ridge is
forecast to build across the western Atlantic by mid next week.
Therefore, very stable atmospheric conditions are forecast to
prevail across the region during the long term period. Very dry
weather conditions with limited shower activity is anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA with isolated +SHRA are expected to affect
TJSJ/TIST/TJBQ through the morning hours. VCSH are expected at the
Leeward terminals too. SHRA with possible isolated TSRA are expected
btwn 24/16z-22z at TJMZ and the VCTY of TJPS. ENE winds at 10 kt
increasing at 15-20 knots with higher gusts aft 24/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys were indicating seas between 6-8
feet around 10 seconds period overnight and early this morning.
Seas will continue to slowly decrease through the weekend.
However, rough breaking wave action will continue to result in
life threatening rip currents along the northern exposed beaches
of PR and portions of the smaller islands through the weekend. Due
to breaking aves up to 10 feet, decided to extend the High surf
Advisory until 6 pm ast tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 72 / 60 60 60 70
STT 82 71 82 72 / 60 60 60 70
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19284 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:54 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
429 PM AST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will hold across the western
Atlantic just north of the area while weakening over the rest of
weekend and into early next week. As a result winds will continue
to diminish and hazardous marine conditions to subside. An upper
level trough will linger west of the region over Hispaniola and
Jamaica until early in the week. This will result in favorable
conditions for the development of showers across the local
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...
Latest radar observations as well as satellite images depicted
scattered showers across the Atlantic waters moving from time to
time across the local islands. This activity will continue to
affect mostly the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well
the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico tonight and
Sunday morning with brief periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain possible. As a result some areas may observe ponding of
water along roads and poorly drained areas. Showers and possible a
couple of thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the
interior and western sections of Puerto Rico Sunday and Monday
Afternoon.

A surface high pressure will hold across the western Atlantic
north of region while weakening until early next week. This
feature is expected to maintain an east to east northeast low
level wind flow across the region for the next several days.
At the same time, a mid to upper level trough and a subtropical
Jet is expected to linger close to the region in a favorable
position for the development of showers and possible thunderstorms
until at least Monday. A drying trend is expected across the
forecast area starting on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
Surface high pressure will fade in the western Atlantic just
north of the local area by Tuesday, but will be replaced by a
second high moving out of the eastern United States Wednesday
through Thursday with continued brief shower activity across the
local islands. A mid level ridge is forecast to build across the
southwestern Atlantic by mid next week and hold through at least
the end of the work week. This will limit shower activity area-
wide. Therefore, very stable atmospheric conditions are forecast
to prevail across the region during the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025..FL050...FL090 durg prd with
passing SHRA at TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ and en route btw PR and Nrn
Leeward islands. Slight chance of Isld TSRA VCTY TJMZ/TJPS til
24/22z with TEMPO MVFR psbl in SHRA. SFC winds fm ENE 15-20 knots,
with OCNL higher gusts til 24/23z. L/lvl winds ENE btw 20-30 kts blo
FL200...bcmg fm SW incr w/ht ABV...MAX Wnd 80-100 kts NE of PR btw
FL300-FL350.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys were indicating seas between 6-8 feet at around
9 seconds period this afternoon. Seas will continue to decrease
tonight through the rest of weekend. For those reasons, the high
surf advisory was cancelled but rough breaking wave action will
continue to result in life threatening rip currents along the
northern exposed beaches of PR and portions of the smaller islands
through the rest of weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 82 / 60 60 70 70
STT 71 82 72 82 / 60 60 70 70
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19285 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:16 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
508 AM AST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will linger west of the region
through Tuesday. This will result in favorable conditions for the
development of showers across the local islands. Surface high
pressure will continue to produce moderate to fresh trade winds
across the area next couple of days. Patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade winds will affect the local islands from
time to time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...
Numerous showers were detected across the local Atlantic Waters
overnight. Some of this showers moved inland over St Thomas/St John
as well as across north and east PR. Shower activity will remain
possible across these areas through the morning hours with brief
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain. Therefore, some locations
may observe ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas.
Shower development with isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly
over the western interior and southwest portions of Puerto Rico
around noon or later in the afternoon.

Moisture is forecast to erodes by Monday, as GFS suggested. In
addition the local gradient is forecast to relax, producing lighter
winds. Shower activity will diminish overnight and early in the
morning Monday and Tuesday. But, the proximity of a TUTT low with
the combination of the available moisture and local effects will
result in showers with one or two embedded thunderstorms across the
western half portion of Puerto Rico by Monday afternoon and to the
south and west of the Cordillera Central by Tuesday afternoon. Also,
the GFS GDI continues to suggest the potential for thunderstorm
activity around the USVI early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...Surface high pressure
across the western Atlantic will build north of the area by mid
week. For Wednesday, computer models suggest remnant of old
frontal boundaries will spread across the region. This will
result in an increase in cloudiness with showers across the local
islands. A drier air mass is forecast to encompass the region
Thursday and Friday. Therefore, limited shower activity is
anticipated by the end of the work week. Overall, pleasant weather
conditions are forecast to prevail in the long term. Models
suggest a frontal boundary could approach the local region next
Sunday, but it is too early to know exactly how this feature could
affect the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing SHRA with a SCT-BKN cld lyrs btwn FL020 and
FL090 is expected through the morning hours at TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJBQ
and TNCM/TKPK. SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop nr/VCTY of
TJMZ/TJPS btwn 25/17-22z. SFC winds from the E-ENE at around 10 kt
increasing around 15 kt with sea breeze variations aft 25/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Buoy observations early this morning are showing
subsiding seas across the local waters. Latest observation from
buoy 41053 in San Juan was showing seas have subsided below 6
feet. Meanwhile, buoy 41043 located around 170 miles northeast of
San juan was showing seas have subsided to near 8 feet. Marine
conditions will continue to improve today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 72 82 73 / 60 60 20 60
STT 82 72 82 72 / 60 60 10 60
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19286 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:04 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
404 PM AST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will hold across the western
Atlantic just north of the area while weakening over the weekend
and into early next week. As a result winds are expected to
diminish and hazardous marine conditions to subside. Moisture will
increase during the weekend and until early next week. A gradual
drying trend will then expected by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
Latest radar observations as well as satellite images depicted
small patches of cloudiness and showers across the Atlantic waters
moving from time to time across the local islands. This activity
will continue to affect mostly the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques,
Culebra as well the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico
tonight and Saturday morning with brief periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain. Due to the rapid movement of the showers, rainfall
amount are expected to be minimal but will produce hazardous
driving conditions. Some showers are also expected to develop
across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico each
afternoon. A strong surface high pressure will hold across the
western Atlantic north of region while weakening until early next
week. This feature will remain as the main weather feature across
the local islands during the rest of the weekend and through
early next week.

An upper level trough is expected to remain from the Atlantic
waters southwestward across Hispaniola and Jamaica through the
weekend. The surface high pressure will continue to push patches
of moisture across the local islands, which will result in
showers activity across the region mostly during the overnight
and early morning hours. Then during the afternoon hours, this
moisture will combine with the upper level dynamic to result in
showers over the western portions of Puerto Rico as well as
downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...from previous
discussion... Surface high pressure will fade in the western
Atlantic just north of the local area early next week, but will be
replaced by a second high moving out of the eastern United States
Wednesday through Friday. The rumpled remains of a cold front
will pass through the area Monday through Tuesday next week with
continued shower activity, even while precipitable water values
trend downward from Sunday`s peak. This will be due to drying at
the top of the lower levels of the atmosphere. A drier and much
more stable air mass will be ushered in behind the remnants of the
cold front passage on Tuesday. This will limit shower activity
area- wide. Moist air behind a second front on Friday of next week
will prepare the area for possibly more shower activity and a
more vigorous pre-frontal trough early in the week after next.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
cycle with VCSH at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well as
JSJ/JBQ. Isolated SHRA/-SHRA in and around JMZ through 23/22z. ENE
winds 15-20 knots with higher gusts, becoming at around 12 knots
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to subside slowly tonight through
Sunday, such that by Sunday night all small craft advisories
should be down. Swell from a strong low in the northern Atlantic
mid week next week will send another surge of swell into the area
Wednesday night and Thursday when small craft advisories will
again be needed for the Atlantic waters and passages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 83 / 60 60 60 60
STT 72 83 72 83 / 60 60 60 60

&&
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19287 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 26, 2018 5:30 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
503 AM AST Mon Feb 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The combination of the available moisture with a TUTT Low will
keep favorable environment conditions for shower development
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the northern and eastern
sections of Puerto Rico through the morning hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and to the west of the Cordillera
Central during the afternoon hours, as well as downwind from the
U.S. Virgin Islands.


&&

.Short Term...Today through Wednesday...Cloudy skies prevailed
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Scattered
to locally numerous showers were observed across the northern half
of Puerto Rico, especially along the north coast, where rainfall
amounts between half to up to one inch was observed. Additional
frequent showers are expected to continue affecting the east,
northeast and north sections of Puerto Rico as well as the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the
trade winds will continue to affect the region through mid morning.

For this afternoon, the combination of an upper level trough to our
west, daytime heating and local orographic effect, will promote the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the western
interior and southwest sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Some
localized heavy rainfall will lead to urban and small stream
flooding in some areas.

For Tuesday, local WFR model indicated widespread activity
across Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. This activity is
due to lighter winds at the surface which should result in better
low level convergence. For Wednesday, the aformentioned upper
level through moves away from the region while dissipating. As a
result, a drier air mass is forecast to encompass the region,
limiting the development of shower and thunderstorms across the
area.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Tuesday...
As the upper level trough moves away from the region, a ridge
aloft will build over the islands. In addition, a dryer air mass
with the remnants of a frontal boundary are forecast to move near
the islands Thursday and Friday. Stable weather conditions are
forecast through the second part of the work-week. Therefore
limited shower activity is expected through this period, but trade
wind showers cannot be ruled out each overnight and early morning
hours across the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and the northern
and eastern sections of Puerto Rico.

Model guidance is suggesting the arrival of a frontal boundary by
the end of next weekend. Which could bring showers and maybe
thunderstorms by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorms were not included due to the lack of confidence at
this time. But, if model guidance are right, rainy conditions are
expected around Sunday. In addition, pleasant below normal
temperatures are possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites
through at least 26/16Z. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous
showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to affect TJMZ and
probably TJBQ from 26/18 through 26/22z. Periods of MVFR conditions
can be expected across both terminals. Elsewhere, passing showers
are expected. Low level winds will be mainly east at 10 to 15 kts
except higher gusts near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions are forecast to improve through the first part
of the work week. Coastal buoys north of the islands were
indicating seas between 3-5 feet and east to northeast winds below
15 knots. However, mariners should exercise caution across the
Atlantic Offshore waters due to seas between 4 and 6 feet. The
proximity of an upper level trough will create favorable
conditions for the development of thunderstorm activity mainly
across the Caribbean waters during the afternoon hours.

Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate by late Wednesday
night or early Thursday morning, when model guidance indicated
the arrival of a long period northeasterly swell across the local
waters. A second long period northerly swell is forecast to move
across the islands by Sunday.

Beach goers, the risk of rip currents is low for the west and
southern beaches of Puerto Rico but moderate along the north and
northeast beaches. The risk is moderate for some beaches of St
Thomas/St John and St Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 74 / 40 40 40 40
STT 82 71 83 72 / 40 40 40 40
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19288 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:35 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
330 PM AST Mon Feb 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The available moisture in combination with a TUTT Low
west of the area will maintain favorable environment conditions
for showers and thunderstorms development across the local islands
and surrounding waters until the middle of the week. Surface high
pressure will hold across the western Atlantic while weakening
through Tuesday. Another surface high is expected to move across
the western Atlantic by mid week, maintaining and east to east
northeast wind flow across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...
Latest radar observations as well as satellite images this
afternoon depicted variably cloudy skies with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the surrounding waters as well
across central, western and southwest Puerto Rico. This activity
will continue to produce periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall until the evening hours. Some of the afternoon convection
will produce locally heavy rains, and gusty winds with potential
for small hail mainly over portions of southwest PR. As a result
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in some area
until at least mid week.

Model guidance continue to indicate the development of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico
especially Tuesday afternoon. The upper trough is expected to
weakens a bit by Wednesday, but some afternoon convection is still
expected across western and interior Puerto Rico. A drier air
mass is forecast to encompass the region by Thursday, limiting
the development of shower and thunderstorms across the area.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Tuesday...from previous reasoning...
As the upper level trough moves away from the region, a ridge
aloft will build over the islands. In addition, a dryer air mass
with the remnants of a frontal boundary are forecast to move near
the islands Thursday and Friday. Stable weather conditions are
forecast through the second part of the work-week. Therefore
limited shower activity is expected through this period, but trade
wind showers cannot be ruled out each overnight and early morning
hours across the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and the northern
and eastern sections of Puerto Rico.

Model guidance is suggesting the arrival of a frontal boundary by
the end of next weekend. Which could bring showers and maybe
thunderstorms by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorms were not included due to the lack of confidence at
this time. But, if model guidance are right, rainy conditions are
expected around Sunday. In addition, pleasant below normal
temperatures are possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/Isold TSRA ovr ctrl mtn range of PR and in and
around TJMZ/TJBQ/TJPS btw 26/18z-26/22z. Prds of MVFR due to low CIG
and SHRA/Isold TSRA with brief gusty winds. -SHRA/SHRA vcty at
TIST/TISX/TJSJ and northern Leeward islands til 26/22z. SCT-BKN cld
lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL090 ovr local flying area. FEW tops
w/Isold TSRA nr FL300-FL350. SFC wnds fm NE 10-15 kt ocnl higher
gusts....bcmg fm E 5-10 aft 27/23z.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively quiet marine conditions are forecast to
continue through the first part of the work week. Coastal buoys
north of the islands were indicating seas between 3-5 feet and
east to northeast winds below 15 knots. Marine conditions are
forecast to deteriorate by late Wednesday night or early Thursday
morning, when model guidance indicated the arrival of a long
period northeasterly swell across the local waters. A second long
period northerly swell is forecast to move across the islands by
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 74 82 / 50 50 40 40
STT 71 83 72 82 / 50 50 40 40
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19289 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:32 am

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
448 AM AST Tue Feb 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower activity across the local waters, the northern U.S. Virgin
Islands, the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico are
expected early in the morning followed by afternoon convection
along and to the southwest of the Cordillera Central through
Tuesday due to a TUTT-Low to the west of the Islands. Some
clearing is forecast after mid-week, as the TUTT tracks away from
the islands and a dry air mass encompass the region. A long
period northeasterly swell will deteriorate marine conditions by
late Wednesday night. The arrival of this long period swell will
result in rough seas, life threatening rip currents and dangerous
breaking waves.

&&

.Short Term...Today through Thursday...
Variably cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands
overnight and early this morning. Frequent passing showers were
noted across the northern and eastern coastal areas. However
rainfall accumulations associated with these showers were minimal.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 70s along coastal areas and
winds were east northeast at 10 mph or less.

Weakening TUTT will continue to prevail through the forecast period.
At lower levels, gentle to moderate east northeast winds will allow
land/sea breeze variations to continue. Although the TUTT is
expected to weaken, environmental conditions will remain favorable
to enhance any shower/thunder development through at least
Wednesday. As a result, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the western interior and southwest Puerto Rico this
afternoon. These storms will result in lightning, heavy rainfall and
some gusty winds. Favorable environmental conditions are expected to
wane on Wednesday, but scattered showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms are still expected across sw PR.

A drier air mass is then forecast to encompass the region on
Thursday, limiting the development of shower and thunderstorms
across the area.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
Model guidance continues to indicate a fair weather pattern
associated with an Upper level ridge and the remnants of a frontal
boundary through at least Saturday. Therefore limited shower
activity is expected through this period, but trade wind showers
cannot be ruled out each overnight and early morning hours across
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and the northern and eastern
sections of Puerto Rico.

A frontal boundary is forecast to move from the northwest into the
region by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Which could
produce rainy conditions and pleasant temperatures across the
region. Marine guidance are indicating a long period northerly
swell arriving by Sunday too. The long duration of this swell will
create hazardous coastal conditions across the coastlines of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the upcoming week.
Some of the coastal hazards expected are: life threatening rip
currents, dangerous breaking waves, beach erosion and coastal
flooding.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conds are expected to continue at all TAF sites with -SHRA/SHRA
at Leeward and USVI terminals as well as JSJ/JBQ. Aft 27/16z VCTS
and MVFR conds possible in and around JMZ/JPS through 27/22z. ENE
winds 5-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect tranquil marine conditions with seas between 2
3 and 5 feet across the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages,
elsewhere below 4 feet through at least late Wednesday night.
However, the proximity of an upper level trough will create
favorable conditions for the development of thunderstorm activity
especially across the Caribbean waters during the afternoon
hours.

Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate by late Wednesday
night or early Thursday morning, when model guidance indicated
the arrival of a long period northeasterly swell across the local
waters. A larger long period northerly swell is forecast to move
across the islands by Sunday into the upcoming week.

Beach goers, the risk of rip currents is high across northeast
Puerto Rico, Culebra and St Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 74 81 73 / 60 60 50 20
STT 82 72 82 71 / 60 60 50 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19290 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:30 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Wed Feb 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The chance of shower/thunder activity will continue to
decrease across the forecast area under a weakening TUTT. However,
still expect showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across sw
PR. A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail Thursday
through Saturday. The chance for shower activity will increase
Sunday and Monday as a frontal boundary moves across the area. A
long period northeast swell will arrive across the local waters
later tonight followed by a larger swell event on Sunday. Hazardous
seas and life threatening rip currents are expected during the
second part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Latest satellite and radar imagery indicated showers streaming
southwards over the Atlantic waters into portions of northern PR and
the USVI. This activity is expected to continue mainly through the
morning hours and spread into portions of eastern PR. During the
afternoon hours, the available low level moisture combined with sea
breeze convergence and orographic effects will lead to the
development of showers with possible isolated thunderstorms over
portions of the Cordillera Central and the southern slopes of Puerto
Rico. Urban and small stream flooding is possible with the heaviest
showers this afternoon.

Upper level trough will continue to move eastward as upper ridge
builds west of the area during the next couple of days. This will
result in mostly fair weather conditions across the region during
the second part of the week. Temperatures will continue to range
between the low to mid 80s during the day across the lower
elevations and in the low 60s in the higher elevations at night.
Light to moderate east to northeast winds will prevail between 5-15
mph with sea breeze variations observed each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the forecast
area on Saturday with mostly sunny skies and limited shower activity.
The chance for shower activity is expected to increase Sunday
into Monday as a frontal boundary moves across the area. Therefore,
frequent passing showers likely across the northern and eastern
half of Puerto Rico as well as the US Virgin islands Sun-Mon. As
the moisture associated with the frontal passage moves away late
Monday night, a drier air mass will encompass the local islands
with fair weather expected Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the forecast period. However, brief SHRA could move at times
during the morning hours across the northern PR terminals and
TIST/TISX. Also, SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop mainly across
S-SW PR between 18z-22z impacting mainly TJPS and the vcnty of
TJMZ. Low level winds will continue from the ENE at 5-12 kts with
sea breeze variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate tonight
as a long period northeasterly swell reaches the local waters.
Expect seas 5 to 7 feet late tonight building to 8 feet by
Thursday morning. A larger long period northerly swell is
forecast to move across the islands Sunday into the upcoming
week. Life threatening rip currents, dangerous breaking waves,
beach erosion and coastal flooding likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 73 / 50 10 10 10
STT 82 75 82 74 / 60 20 10 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19291 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:28 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
535 PM AST Wed Feb 28 2018


.SYNOPSIS...Showers and a few storms will continue across the
region through this evening as a TUTT moves east of the area. A
fair weather pattern is expected to prevail Thursday through
Saturday as upper level high pressure builds eastwards. A strong
low pressure system over the Central Atlantic will bring a
frontal boundary through the Greater Antilles Sunday and Monday.
This front will bring a better chance for showers, along with a
significant long period northeasterly swell. Hazardous seas and
life threatening rip currents are expected through much of the
upcoming period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Upper level trough is
crossing the region this afternoon, which has aided in the
development of scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm
over the Cordillera Central and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico.
The heaviest showers into this evening may produce localized urban
and small stream flooding.

Upper level ridge will build into the area for the last half of the
week as the trough moves east, bringing in a drier and more
suppressed airmass with limited shower chances. Temperatures will
continue to range between the low to mid 80s during the day across
the lower elevations and in the low 60s in the higher elevations at
night.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Strong upper level low and
associated strong surface low moving out into the central Atlantic
on Saturday will bring a last season frontal boundary into the
Greater Antilles on Sunday. Passage of the front will bring frequent
passing showers across the region Sunday and Monday. In addition
to the showers, a significant marine event is expected to affect
the region. See the marine section below for more details.

Frontal boundary is expected to move east of the USVI by late
Monday, with a drier airmass will arriving by Tuesday. Mid next week
should be marked by another period of relatively calm weather with
limited shower chances across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure, to the north, is forecast to maintain the
generally easterly flow across the region. Some showers, and maybe a
thunderstorm are possible across SW PR. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate
overnight as first long period northeasterly swell reaches the
local waters. Seas over the Atlantic waters and Anegada Passage
are expected to build to build to 5 to 7 feet late tonight,
building to near 8 feet on Thursday morning. This will be
reinforced by another swell train on Friday, keeping seas across
these region in the 5-7ft range into Saturday.

Strong low pressure system moving out into the Central Atlantic
this weekend will bring a more significant, and much larger long
period northerly swell on Sunday. Seas over the Atlantic and even
into the passages are expected to build quickly to 10 to 15ft,
potentially reaching above these values in the open Atlantic
waters early next week. Life threatening rip currents, dangerous
large breaking waves, significant beach erosion and coastal
flooding are likely with this event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 80 73 81 / 20 20 0 0
STT 75 79 74 79 / 20 10 10 10

&&
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19292 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:32 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
540 AM AST Thu Mar 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly fair weather is expected to prevail across
the forecast area with some locally induced afternoon showers
across the interior and sw portions of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere
brief passing showers, if any. The chance for shower activity
will increase Sunday and Monday as a frontal boundary moves across
the area. A long period northeast swell will continue to invade
the local waters today followed by a larger swell event on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

For today, a band of low level clouds and showers currently to the
east of the U.S. Vrigin Islands will continue to move westward and
across portions of the smaller islands and possibly some sections of
eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours. During the afternoon,
limited shower development due to diurnal effects is expected mainly
over portions of the interior and southwestern areas of Puerto Rico.

Upper level trough continues to move eastward and away of the
region. Fair weather conditions are expected to prevail through the
short term period as an upper level ridge builds from the west
during the next couple of days. This will promote a drying trend
over the islands with limited shower activity each day. Temperatures
will continue to range between the low to mid 80s during the day
across the lower elevations and in the low 60s in the higher
elevations at night. Light to moderate east to northeast winds will
prevail between 5-15 mph with sea breeze variations observed each
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday

The chance for shower activity is expected to increase Sunday
into Monday as a frontal boundary moves across the area. This
will result in frequent passing showers across the northern and
eastern half of Puerto Rico as well as the US Virgin islands Sun-
Mon. As the moisture associated with the frontal boundary moves
away late Monday night, a drier air mass will encompass the local
islands with fair weather expected Tue-Wed. A sharp increase in
precipitable water is then expected Thursday into Friday with PW
values near two inches which is well above the normal range. If
the forecast holds, a wetter pattern could be expected by the end
of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the forecast period. -SHRA could move at times through the morning
hours across the USVI terminals. Low level winds will continue from
the east to northeast at 5-15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...A northeast swell will continue to invade the local
waters today to result in hazardous seas as well as rough surf
conditions and life threatening rip currents through at least late
Friday. Expect seas 6 to 8 feet with breakers 10 to 12 feet
today. A larger northwest to north swell is then expected to
impact the islands Sunday through midweek next week. This swell
has the potential to cause coastal flooding and beach erosion from
the western to northeastern beaches of Puerto Rico and then
outlying islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 73 / 0 0 10 10
STT 82 74 82 74 / 20 20 20 10
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19293 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:46 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Fri Mar 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly fair weather is expected to prevail across
the forecast area with some locally induced showers each
afternoon. Elsewhere brief passing showers, if any. The chance
for shower activity will increase Sunday and Monday as a frontal
boundary moves across the area. A significant northwest to north
swell event will affect the local area from Sunday through the
middle of the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Light to moderate east to southerly winds will prevail today,
turning from the west during the weekend before a frontal boundary
moves over the region on Sunday. Upper ridge will continue to
promote drier air aloft and fair weather conditions through
Saturday. However, diurnal effects will lead to brief afternoon
shower development over the western interior sections of PR today.
On Saturday, shower development will shift to the eastern areas of PR
and the smaller islands as a westerly wind flow will dominate the
region. Mostly light to moderate rainfall amounts are expected
through Saturday. On Sunday, a polar trough and associated frontal
boundary moving over the region will increase the potential for
scattered showers across all local islands.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

Frequent passing showers are expected across the northern and
eastern half of Puerto Rico as well as the US Virgin islands
on Monday. Those showers will be associated with a departing
frontal boundary. As the boundary moves away Monday night, a
drier air mass will encompass the local islands with fair weather
expected Tue-Wed. A sharp increase in precipitable water is then
expected Thursday with PW values near 1.70 inches which is well
above the normal range. If the forecast holds, expect rainy
conditions Thursday and early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all terminals during the next 24 hours. Iso/Sct SHRA possible
over the western interior areas of PR late this afternoon. Light
easterly winds will prevail today with sea breeze variations
around 10 kts aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...A significant northwest to north swell event will
affect the local area from Sunday through the middle of the
next week. This swell will be generating seas near 14 feet and
breaking waves of 20 feet or greater. This swell event will
create life-threatening rip currents, as well as coastal flooding
and beach erosion along the west to northeast coasts of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers, as well as surfers,
are advised to avoid beaches exposed to the Atlantic Ocean and
local passages during this dangerous swell event. Some roads near
the coast may be flooded with salt water and impassible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 84 72 / 10 10 30 30
STT 82 71 82 70 / 10 10 40 10
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19294 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:11 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
451 PM AST Fri Mar 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Strong low pressure across the western Atlantic is
bringing a northerly swell to the local area which will cause
hazardous seas tonight. However, even larger swell is expected on
Sunday. Winds will gradually shift to a northwesterly direction
from today through Sunday. Frontal boundary will bring clouds and
rain on Sunday across the local islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...From today through Sunday...

Fair weather is expected across the local area for the rest of
today and on Saturday as dry air prevails. Approaching frontal
boundary will cause an increase in cloudiness, moisture and a
shift in winds to the local area. Cloudiness is expected to
increase late Saturday into early Sunday and rain showers are
expected in the morning hours of Sunday. As the front approaches
the winds will shift from easterly today to southerly on Saturday
to westerly and northwesterly on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

.From previous discussion...

Frequent passing showers are expected across the northern and
eastern half of Puerto Rico as well as the US Virgin islands on
Monday. Those showers will be associated with a departing frontal
boundary. As the boundary moves away Monday night, a drier air
mass will encompass the local islands with fair weather expected
Tue-Wed. A sharp increase in precipitable water is then expected
Thursday with PW values near 1.70 inches which is well above the
normal range. If the forecast holds, expect rainy conditions
Thursday and early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all
terminals during the next 24 hours with light easterly winds. Upper
level winds turn to the north at 9 kft to 35 kft with winds 5 to 15
kts.

&&

.MARINE...A large northwest to north swell is expected to affect
the local waters from this Sunday through the middle of the
upcoming week. This swell will be generating seas near or over 14
feet and breaking waves of 20 feet or greater. This swell event
will create life threatening rip currents, as well as coastal
flooding and beach erosion along the west to northeast coasts of
Puerto Rico, Culebra and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
Beachgoers, as well as surfers, are advised to avoid beaches
exposed to the Atlantic Ocean and local passages during this
dangerous swell event. Some roads near the coast may be flooded
and impassable with salt water. A coastal flood watch has been
issued. The local seas are expected to subside this evening but
will become dangerous quite rapidly on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 80 / 10 30 30 50
STT 71 82 70 77 / 10 40 10 50
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19295 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:26 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
554 AM AST Sat Mar 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Main concern continues to be the large swell event
starting on Sunday. Please see marine section below. Overall fair
weather conditions will prevail today with brief showers
developing in the afternoon across the eastern sections of Puerto
Rico. Westerly winds will prevail through the weekend. A front
will increase clouds and shower activity on Sunday across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Clear skies and rain-free conditions prevailed across the local
islands overnight and early this morning. Coastal temperatures were
in the low 70s under light and variable winds.

A generally fair weather pattern is expected to prevail throughout
the morning hours with mostly sunny skies. Locally induced afternoon
showers are expected to develop across the northeast quadrant of PR
under a westerly wind flow. The chance for shower activity is
expected to increase late tonight into Sunday as a frontal boundary
moves across the forecast area. Therefore, expect frequent passing
showers across the northern and eastern half of Puerto Rico as well
as the US Virgin Islands Sunday. With the heaviest showers, ponding
of water in low lying areas likely. Although the front is expected
to move away by Monday, lingering moisture will continue to result
in some passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the outlying
islands. Under a north northwest wind flow Sunday and Monday,
pleasant temperatures will prevail across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

A drying trend is expected on Tuesday and on Wednesday morning
with fair weather conditions prevailing across the islands. Later
on Wednesday afternoon through Saturday, winds will shift from the
southeast and moisture will pool over the region. This increase in
moisture combined with diurnal effects will aid to the development
of showers during the afternoon hours over the interior and
northern sections of Puerto Rico. Cloudiness and passing showers
will be more frequent across the Caribbean waters and over the
smaller islands from Thursday through Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through at least 03/16Z.
Aft 03/16Z moisture in southwest to west flow will allow some
showers over the interior and ern PR causing mtn obscurations. Sfc
winds 10 kt or less, turning W aft 03/16Z then NW aft 03/21Z. Sea
breeze influences to dominate.


&&

.MARINE...A large and long period northwest to north swell will
result in dangerous seas across the local waters from Sunday
through the second part of next week. The swell is forecast to
peak between Sunday and Monday with seas higher than 16 feet
currently forecast across the Atlantic waters. The swell will
slowly fade through the end of next week. Keeping rough and
hazardous seas across most of the regional waters. A frontal
passage will increase shower activity on Sunday and a moderate
westerly wind flow will prevail through the weekend.

This swell will result in very large breaking waves from the
western to northeastern beaches of the islands. Beachgoers, as
well as surfers, are advised to avoid beaches exposed to the
Atlantic Ocean and local passages during this dangerous swell
event. Some roads near the coast will be flooded and impassable
with salt water.

Please see the latest Coastal Hazard Message(CFWSJU) and surf
zone forecast (ZFPSJU) for detailed information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 78 72 / 30 50 50 20
STT 83 70 81 71 / 30 20 60 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19296 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:50 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
537 PM AST Sat Mar 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Doppler weather radar as well as latest satellites
imagery showed mostly sunny to partly cloudy and fair weather
skies across the region, with little or no precipitation observed.
An overall dry and stable weather pattern will persist during most
of tonight. However, a weakening cold front and associated boundary
will bring a rapid increase in cloudiness and showers activity to
the region by early Sunday morning. Light westerly winds will prevail
overnight becoming northwesterly late Sunday through Monday as the
boundary sinks southwards while a high pressure ridge builds across
the southwestern Atlantic, and the strong low pressure system move
into the central Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Overnight Today through Monday...
Mostly clear skies expected much of the overnight hours however as
previously mentioned, cloudiness and shower activity is expected
to increase across the forecast area, with the approach of the
frontal boundary. Therefore, expect frequent passing showers across
the northern and eastern half of Puerto Rico along the frontal
boundary, as well as the adjacent islands and mainly the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands on Sunday. As a result, nuisance ponding of
water in low lying areas will be likely especially on Sunday.
Although the front is forecast to sink southwards and dissipate by
Monday, lingering moisture will to result in periods of passing
showers across portions of Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands as
well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. Under mostly cloudy to variably
cloudy skies and a light to moderate west to northwest wind flow,
pleasant temperatures will prevail across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

A drying trend is expected on Tuesday and on Wednesday morning
with fair weather conditions prevailing across the islands. Later
on Wednesday afternoon through Saturday, winds will shift from the
southeast and moisture will pool over the region. This increase in
moisture combined with diurnal effects will aid to the development
of showers during the afternoon hours over the interior and northern
sections of Puerto Rico. Cloudiness and passing showers will be
more frequent across the Caribbean waters and over the smaller
islands from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR cond are expected to prevail across the
local flying area til at least 04/06Z. A frontal boundary is
expected to reach the region overnight through early Sunday
morning. This will rapidly increasing cloudiness and shower
activity across the flying area and local TAF sites aft 04/06Z.
SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025..FL050...FL100. Few tops nr FL150 aft
04/06z. Sfc winds will be fm the W 10 knots or less...bcmg fm the
NW after 04/06z at 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE....A large and long period northwest to north swell will
bring dangerous seas across the local waters from early Sunday through
the latter part of the upcoming week. The swell is so far forecast
to peak between Sunday and Monday, with building seas greater than
16 feet possible across the Atlantic waters. The northerly swell will
slowly subside and fade by the end of next week. Rough and hazardous
seas can therefore be expected across most of the regional waters.
A frontal boundary passage will also increase shower activity on
Sunday with a light to moderate west to northwest wind flow expected
to prevail through the weekend. Please refer to the latest Coastal
and Marine hazard messages, and the Coastal Waters Forecast for
the latest information and updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 78 72 80 / 30 60 20 20
STT 70 81 71 77 / 20 60 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19297 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:42 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
620 AM AST Sun Mar 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Frontal boundary will move over the region today.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread this morning from
the Atlantic waters across portions of northern PR. Then
scattered to locally numerous showers are expected across the
eastern areas of PR and the smaller islands. Northerly winds will
prevail through midweek as well as a drying trend and fair weather
conditions. Another surge in moisture is forecast during the
second part of next week with a return of east to southeast
trades.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Variably cloudy skies prevailed across the forecast area overnight
and early this morning with numerous showers observed over the
Atlantic waters which in fact are associated with an approaching
frontal boundary. Coastal temperatures were in the low 70s, and
winds were westerly at 10 mph or less.

As the frontal boundary moves across the area throughout the day,
passing showers are expected to prevail particularly across the
northern and eastern half of Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. Virgin
Islands. With the heaviest showers, ponding of water in low lying
areas and minor urban flooding likely. Although the front is
expected to move away by Monday afternoon, lingering moisture will
continue to result in a few passing showers across eastern Puerto
Rico and the outlying islands. Elsewhere, a passing shower possible,
if any. A drier air mass is then expected to encompass the forecast
area on Tuesday to result in a fair weather pattern with limited
shower activity. Under a north northwest wind flow, pleasant
temperatures will continue to prevail.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

A drying trend will continue through Wednesday morning with fair
weather conditions prevailing across the islands. Later on
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, winds will shift from the
southeast and moisture will pool over the region. This increase in
moisture combined with diurnal effects will aid to the
development of showers during the afternoon hours over the
interior and northern sections of Puerto Rico. Cloudiness and
passing showers will be more frequent across the Caribbean waters
and over the smaller islands from Thursday through early Saturday.
Fair weather conditions are expected through Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conds and mountain obscurations will remain possible
through the forecast cycle at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well
as JSJ/JBQ in SHRA/-SHRA associated with a frontal boundary moving
across the area. VCSH elsewhere. Surface winds will continue from
the NW at 10 knots or less increasing around 12 kt after 04/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will increase very rapidly creating hazardous
coastal conditions today. Expect extremely dangerous breaking
waves from the northwest to northeast coastline of mainland Puerto
Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This swell
will produce coastal flooding across these areas, and some roads
near the coast will be flooded and impassable due to the breaking
wave action. Also, life threatening rip currents and beach erosion
are expected through the upcoming work-week.

Beachgoers, as well as surfers, are advised to avoid beaches
exposed to the Atlantic Ocean and local passages during this
dangerous swell event. For more information, refer to the Coastal
Hazards Message (CFWSJU) issued by the National Weather Service
in San Juan.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 73 80 72 / 60 20 20 20
STT 82 71 82 71 / 60 30 30 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19298 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:53 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
532 PM AST Sun Mar 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Weakening cold front and associated boundary will continue
to sink farther southwards into the northeastern Caribbean overnight
through early Monday, as a large area of low pressure moves farther
eastward into the central Atlantic, and a high pressure ridge builds
across the southwest Atlantic and north of the region. Satellite imagery
and the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar showed considerable cloudiness
with embedded light to moderate showers now spread across the islands
and coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Rest of tonight through Tuesday...

Although the front boundary will slowly dissipate south of the
region by Monday afternoon, lingering moisture will result in few
passing showers from time to time mainly over the north and east
sections of Puerto Rico and adjacent islands, as well as the U.S.
Virgin islands. A much drier and stable air mass is expected to
encompass the forecast area on Tuesday resulting in an overall fair
weather pattern with limited shower activity. Under a light northwest
to north wind flow, pleasant overnight and daytime temperatures are
expected to continue.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

A drying trend will continue through early Wednesday, but as winds
become more easterly by Thursday, fragments of moisture from the
old frontal boundary will return to the region increasing the chance
for periods of passing showers during the early morning and afternoon
hours. By Friday and into the weekend winds are expected to become
more southeasterly. This in turn will increase moisture pooling across
the area and support a better chance for locally and diurnally induced
shower activity each day, particularly over the interior and northern
sections of Puerto Rico. Occasionally cloudiness and shower activity
is also forecast to be more frequent across the Caribbean waters and
around the USVI during the latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Considerable cloudiness along a frontal boundary spread
across the northeastern caribbean will lead to Bkn-OVC cld lyrs nr
FL025..FL050...FL080 til at least 05/06z. -SHRA/SHRA embedded in cloudiness
ovr islands and en route btw islands. Mtn top obscr ovr ctrl MTN
range of PR durg prd due to low cld lyrs and -RA. Mostly VFR
conditions expected at all TAF sites. NW winds blo FL100 at 15-20
kts bcmg fm W and incr w/ht ABV.

&&

.MARINE and SURF ZONE...A northwest to north swell will continue
to spread across most of the regional waters and passages for the
next several days creating hazardous seas. Marine conditions will
continue to deteriorate overnight through Monday creating dangerous
life threatening Marine and Surf Zone conditions. Therefore expect
hazardous seas, very high surf and extremely dangerous rip currents
through Monday. Beachgoers, as well as surfers, are urged to avoid
beaches exposed to the Atlantic ocean and local passages during this
dangerous swell event. Coastal flooding and beach erosion from the
west to northeast coast of Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques is likely
to continue. Some coastal roadways will continue to be flooded with
salt water and become impassable. Please continue to refer to the
latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Marine Weather Messages
(MWWSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 80 72 78 / 10 20 20 20
STT 71 82 71 80 / 20 20 20 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19299 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:35 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Mon Mar 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Weakening cold front and associated boundary will continue
to sink farther southwards into the northeastern Caribbean through
today, as a large area of low pressure moves farther eastward
into the central Atlantic, and a high pressure ridge builds across
the southwest Atlantic and north of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Cloudiness and lingering moisture associated to the front, now over
the Caribbean waters, will continue to result in periods of showers
across the regional waters. Under a west to northwest wind flow,
showers will move over the west and northern areas of PR and across
the smaller islands through the morning hours. Hi resolution models
indicate that afternoon showers could develop over the southeastern
interior portions of PR, mainly due to a southerly sea breeze and
orographic effects. A quickly drying trend is then expected through
midweek before moisture associated to the front returns on a
southeasterly wind flow.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...Moisture associated with
the aformentioned frontal boundary will returns on a southeasterly
wind flow on Thursday. On Friday and during for the next weekend,
mid to upper level ridge will build across the region, which will
result in dry weather conditions across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Front has moved over the offshore Caribbean waters just
south of TISX and over the flying area of the Leeward terminals. BKN-
OVC layers will continue btw FL030-FL090 today. -SHRA possible
across all PR terminals through 16z and through tonight across the
USVI/Leeward terminals. Winds will continue NW at 10-20 kt blo
FL060 and W above/increasing with height...50 kt at FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Very large and dangerous long period northwest to north
swells will continue to affect the local waters through at least
mid week. Coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion and a high
risk of rip current will continue next couple of days. Refer to
latest coastal hazard message products for more information.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 71 80 71 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 69 82 69 / 20 20 20 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19300 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:56 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 PM AST Mon Mar 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Large area of low pressure continued to move farther eastward
into the north central Atlantic, as a high pressure ridge builds across
the southwest Atlantic and north of the region. This will induce a light
northwest to north wind flow through Tuesday. This large area of low
pressure continued to generate powerful northerly swell action and
hazardous seas across the regional waters, as well as life- threatening
rip currents and surf conditions across most of the north, west and
east coastal areas and local beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...
The strong low pressure that generated very large swell action to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will continue across the
north central Atlantic until at least Wednesday. High pressure
will form to our northeast as another strong low pressure moves
off the coast of South Carolina and moves northeast just offshore
from the eastern and northeastern coast of the United States on
Wednesday. The low pressure will keep the high pressure just mentioned
farther south. As this situation develops surface winds will shift
from northeast on Tuesday, east on Wednesday and southeast by Thursday.
At 700 mb high pressure in the tropical Atlantic will cause winds to
be more southerly by late Tuesday. This will pull a plume of moisture
northward across the region by Wednesday and this will increase
the chance for shower activity. At this time lower level moisture
is not quite in sync with higher mid level moisture, therefore
deep convection is not expected. Nevertheless, recent GFS Lifted
Index (05/12Z run) goes from six on 07/06Z to minus five on 08/18Z,
This suggests a better chance for showers--especially in northwest
Puerto Rico on Thursday.

At upper levels, the trough to our north will shift eastward on Tuesday
and Wednesday. This will allow higher pressure to build over the western
Tropical Atlantic and the local region. This changing pattern will also
support a gradual strengthening of the trade wind cap and a gradual
erosion of low level trade wind moisture.

GFS forecast upper air sounding also suggest that local winds will
continue to veer and increase with height on Thursday into Friday.
This may enhance some isolated convection and possibly trigger fair
weather waterspouts during the latter part of the work week.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
On Friday and during for the next weekend a gradual drying trend
is forecast as the mid to upper level ridge will build across the
region, which will result in mostly sunny and fair weather
conditions across the area over the weekend through at least
monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday the combination of an approaching
frontal trough and a mid to upper level short wave forecast to
move across the west Atlantic, will again increase the chance for
moisture pooling and shower activity across the regional waters
and local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Some CIGS of 040-080 will cont thru 06/12Z at TJMZ/TJBQ
but VFR is expected to prevail at all stations thru 06/22Z. Isold -
SHRA. OCNL mtn obscurations in HIR trrn. Sfc winds NW 12 kt or less
bcmg NNE 10 kt aft 06/12Z. Winds alf greater than 50 kt FL160-500.
Max winds W 70 kt FL320 diminishing to 60 kt aft 06/00Z.

&&

.MARINE....Hazardous seas continue between 15 to 17 feet recorded
at inner buoy 41053. Ten-foot seas or more in the Atlantic waters
continued to produce breaking waves 18 feet and above and are expected
to continue as late as Wednesday night across portion of north central
Puerto Rico. Model guidance continued to suggest,breaking waves as high
as 10 feet will remain likely into Friday. Most small craft advisories
will therefore continue through the end of the week. This long duration
of the swell event is due to the vigorous low that will continue at
least several more days across the north central Atlantic. Please
refer to the latest Coastal waters forecast (CWFSJU), Marine
Weather Message (MWWSJU) and Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU)
issued by the National Weather Service WFO San Juan PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 71 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 69 82 69 81 / 20 10 10 30

&&
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 40 guests