Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are expected to move
eastward across northern Belize tonight and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by Friday afternoon. This system has a small chance
of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in
two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track text:

At 0000 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 17.9°N and 89.4°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 105 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[BZSTORM]

Hi everyone sorry lost the bookmark for this thread, computer issues one dead computer and another struggling to keep up (6 yrs old), so hence not been on here this season so far. Invest 94L (Aka depression 9 remnants) caused some impressive afternoon rain and thunderstorms for the South, knocking out our elec for hour or so, that line was being worked on today and wasn't supposed to be shut down for switch over till 5pm but system there was knocked out at 4.10pm by small storm in the area (that's direct quote for our elec supplier when I rang to find out how long it would be down and if related to the work being carried out today), late restored at 5.50pm.
Belize met is forecasting for tomorrow : W/NW 5-15 kt. with showers, rain and some thunderstorms. interestingly Saturday is for reduced rain & thunderstorms but with winds increasing to NW 15-25 kt.
Watching very carefully the weather for next week as both Iris and Mitch did not follow tracking as expected and intensity for that matter. Oct is not a month to take lightly. Oct 22nd 1998 was when Hurr Mitch first was spawned as Tropical Depression 13 came from diff source but lesson is late season this part of the world not good. And despite met officer at the BZ Met telling me Belize has only ever had one storm affected Belize during El NIno phase (he sent me JPG of that showing from 1954-2013 though looks like 2 on the image but its small so hard to read), nothing stopping 2014 making it 2.
I have forgotten how to upload images to share but maybe someone on here would know the source of the image I was sent and know a link??

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 76 / 40 0 20 10
STT 88 79 88 78 / 40 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Hi everyone sorry lost the bookmark for this thread, computer issues one dead computer and another struggling to keep up (6 yrs old), so hence not been on here this season so far. Invest 94L (Aka depression 9 remnants) caused some impressive afternoon rain and thunderstorms for the South, knocking out our elec for hour or so, that line was being worked on today and wasn't supposed to be shut down for switch over till 5pm but system there was knocked out at 4.10pm by small storm in the area (that's direct quote for our elec supplier when I rang to find out how long it would be down and if related to the work being carried out today), late restored at 5.50pm.
Belize met is forecasting for tomorrow : W/NW 5-15 kt. with showers, rain and some thunderstorms. interestingly Saturday is for reduced rain & thunderstorms but with winds increasing to NW 15-25 kt.
Watching very carefully the weather for next week as both Iris and Mitch did not follow tracking as expected and intensity for that matter. Oct is not a month to take lightly. Oct 22nd 1998 was when Hurr Mitch first was spawned as Tropical Depression 13 came from diff source but lesson is late season this part of the world not good. And despite met officer at the BZ Met telling me Belize has only ever had one storm affected Belize during El NIno phase (he sent me JPG of that showing from 1954-2013 though looks like 2 on the image but its small so hard to read), nothing stopping 2014 making it 2.
I have forgotten how to upload images to share but maybe someone on here would know the source of the image I was sent and know a link??

Hi BZSTORM. Here is a place where you can upload images. http://tinypic.com/

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 65 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE
IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...UNDER A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ALOFT. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PR/USVI.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...SYNOPTIC
MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS STRONG WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...THE TIMING MAY CHANGE
SLIGHTLY...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS CONTINUE BELOW FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SMALL
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 76 / 40 0 20 10
STT 88 79 88 78 / 40 30 30 20

Very interresting discussion from NWS San Juan PR. Let's wait and see if the models continue to be on an increasing trend for this TW.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered over southeastern
Yucatan, Belize, and the adjacent northwestern Caribbean Sea is
associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. Surface
pressures are rising in the area, and redevelopment is unlikely
while the system drifts eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

[BZSTORM]

Hi everyone sorry lost the bookmark for this thread, computer issues one dead computer and another struggling to keep up (6 yrs old), so hence not been on here this season so far. Invest 94L (Aka depression 9 remnants) caused some impressive afternoon rain and thunderstorms for the South, knocking out our elec for hour or so, that line was being worked on today and wasn't supposed to be shut down for switch over till 5pm but system there was knocked out at 4.10pm by small storm in the area (that's direct quote for our elec supplier when I rang to find out how long it would be down and if related to the work being carried out today), late restored at 5.50pm.
Belize met is forecasting for tomorrow : W/NW 5-15 kt. with showers, rain and some thunderstorms. interestingly Saturday is for reduced rain & thunderstorms but with winds increasing to NW 15-25 kt.
Watching very carefully the weather for next week as both Iris and Mitch did not follow tracking as expected and intensity for that matter. Oct is not a month to take lightly. Oct 22nd 1998 was when Hurr Mitch first was spawned as Tropical Depression 13 came from diff source but lesson is late season this part of the world not good. And despite met officer at the BZ Met telling me Belize has only ever had one storm affected Belize during El NIno phase (he sent me JPG of that showing from 1954-2013 though looks like 2 on the image but its small so hard to read), nothing stopping 2014 making it 2.
I have forgotten how to upload images to share but maybe someone on here would know the source of the image I was sent and know a link??

Hi BZSTORM. Here is a place where you can upload images. http://tinypic.com/

here is the picture sent me

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

At 1800 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.0°N and 87°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 65 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY... MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SAN JUAN...AND ONCE THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO. THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS IN ISOLATED
AREAS OF ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN.


TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DOMINATING...LESS THAN ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY...A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHRA EXPECTED...CAUSING MAINLY VCSH
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 25/13Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING AFTER 25/12Z AND
A BIT MORE FROM THE ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 76 88 / 0 20 10 20
STT 78 88 79 87 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM EDT TWD of wave.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N38W TO 05N39W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. A
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS SUSTAINS SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-15N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE
NEXT WAVE AXIS TO THE W...FROM 34W-47W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVING
LITTLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER LOCALLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED...WITHOUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WARMER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...A WETTER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEK UNDER THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 25/17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT
WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 78 88 79 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while it meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while the disturbance meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST RIDGE OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY JET ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF FLORIDA
WILL CROWD THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CROSSING WEAKLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE. VERY WEAK
GRADIENTS PERSIST IN THE SADDLE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL SUB
TROPIC ATLANTIC OVER NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK MOISTURE IS OBSERVED AT
MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVES THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TRANSITS EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL REACHING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND
DEVELOP A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY AND WEAKENING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST TUESDAY
OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
ONE SHOWER LEFT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SAN JUAN
AIRPORT. BUT SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA AS SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND A STALLING COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF
HAITI. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION OF DRIER WEATHER
WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEN A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
ON THURSDAY SENDING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY ACCORDING TO
TODAY`S GFS SOLUTION. BUT THE MODEL SHOWS THE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE
WAVE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF DRIER AIR PASSES OVER FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE RETURNS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND PERSISTS
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK STRONGER FEATURES THAN THE WEAK LOW
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOT FORESEEN IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS...BUT
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PR
UNTIL 25/21Z. THEREFORE...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH AT TJSJ
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT SEAS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND BELOW 6 FEET EVERYWHERE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOW TRANSITING THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAY GENERATE SOME HIGHER SEAS IN THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED EFFECT HERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 77 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 88 79 89 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while the disturbance meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT.

NO CHANGES IN FORECAST REASONING FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION. THE SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS
SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY AS TROPICAL WAVE OR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY LOOKS THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER
MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ
BETWEEN 17-21Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS COULD AFFECT TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH AT TJSJ
POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO 15-20 KT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADES WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY THEN BUILD 4-6 FT TUE-WED IN
MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 77 / 10 20 20 20
STT 88 77 89 79 / 10 30 30 20