Caribbean - Central America Weather

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12181 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:48 am

Good morning. We can see plenty of rain and some gusts as the wave moves thru by late Sunday thru Tuesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT WITH MULTIPLE LOWS CONTINUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH
FROM THE STRONGEST LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY. A REFLECTION OF THE STRONGER TUTT LOW IS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND MOVES CLOSER DURING THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE
IS SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
COMES WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. A MUCH STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
WITH BETTER MOISTURE THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER WITH RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE INVADED THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FIRST LEG OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THIS LEG DEVELOPED LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED AXIS
OF THE WAVE LOCATED NEAR 20 NORTH AND 53 WEST AT 27/07Z
APPROACHED THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MIMIC PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH
OF IT AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY
GENERATED IT. THE TWO LEGS FORMING THE INVERTED V SHAPE OF THE
WAVE SHOULD PASS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED ON SUNDAY EVENING BY DRYING AT 700 MB AND THE
SURFACE. BETTER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT TO HOLD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE USVI AND THE WINDWARD PORTION OF PUERTO RICO DESPITE LOW TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AROUND NOON...OR
JUST BEFORE...IN THE USVI AS A GLOBE OF MOISTURE WITH A TAIL
STREAMING BACK FROM ITS TOP. IT CROSSES INTO PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE
"TAIL" THEN CROSSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
PRESENTLY SATELLITE PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE MOISTURE IN THE SECOND
WAVE AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL NOT WEAKEN VERY MUCH AS IT
APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDIER AND WETTER
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IN CONTRAST TO THE DRIER AND HAZIER
WEATHER THIS WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND THEIR MOISTURE
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME OF THOSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SECOND
WAVE ENTERS THE AREA ON MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 27/22Z. HOWEVER... BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TJMZ. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY...BUT FORECAST FALLS JUST SHORT. NEVERTHELESS
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ACCOMPANYING THE INVADING
TROPICAL WAVE MONDAY...WILL CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO WHICH THEY ARE MOVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 10 30 30 30
STT 90 79 90 81 / 30 10 20 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12182 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:56 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N34W TO
12N35W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
35W-38W.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N51W TO 15N54W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
22N88W TO 15N90W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 12N21W 12N31W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 10N38W TO 11N46W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N54W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N16W TO 13N19W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 33W-45W...AND WITHIN
150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 57W-61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
50W-53W.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12183 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:10 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF ALTERNATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGES AND TUTT
LOWS WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ONE ON
SAT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE ON MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A TUTT LOW WITH AXIS ALONG 62W. WAVE
IS SURROUNDED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WILL ALSO BE ON SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF TUTT SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY. TUTT RETROGRADES SUN ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ANYTHING AT THE
SFC WOULD BE REFLECTION OF TUTT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY GREATER CVRG WITH
SCT TSTMS.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 40W. ASSOCIATED WEATHER LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY
DAYBREAK MON ACROSS THE EAST...USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. TC
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BUT REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...WAVE
WILL BRING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER MON-TUE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS FOR SVRL DAYS AFTER WAVE PASSAGE WITH WET
PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU FRI WITH SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE
WX EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURG THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BRIEF PDS OF ISOLD-SCT LOW LVL CLD LYRS BTW 020-060K FT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST TIL 27/23Z... PASSING
TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA ARE FCST TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST AND WEST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR...AS WELL AS THE LEESIDE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND VCNTY TJMZ. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS OCNL GUST BTW 20-25 KTS AT LEAST TIL 27/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT INCREASING TO 6-7 FT MON-
TUE WITH WAVE PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 88 81 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 82 80 82 / 40 40 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12184 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:13 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL TRPCL
ATLC FROM 20N39W TO 10N39W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR
LAYER THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. A RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AXIS. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DUST
NEAR THE WAVE...MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED EXCEPT FOR
AREAS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT
15-20 KT CURRENTLY FROM 20N56W TO 10N57W. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W
SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THE ITCZ REGION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SIMILAR RAIN IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
57W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W TO 11N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N46W TO 12N50W TO THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA AT 9N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12185 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:29 pm

Here is a good loop of the big wave. Let's see how it does as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. For sure showers and some gusts will arrive to the islands starting on late Sunday.

http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/satellite/GOES-E/Trop/IR
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12186 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2012 5:28 am

Good morning. Let's see how much rain falls in the Eastern Caribbean islands with the passage of the big Tropical Wave as some of them need it as the drought has been with them.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE MIDDLE LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IN
A SERIES OF LOWS IN AN EAST-WEST TUTT NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES NORTH DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LOW EAST OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND ITS TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO...MOVING AWAY ONLY LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...A SECOND BUT WEAKER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A REFLECTION OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...IT
WILL PASS CLOSE BY TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH IN THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES BETWEEN 20 AND 32 NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS. TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKLY ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THEN AFTER
28/08Z STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS SAINT THOMAS
AND CULEBRA AND INTO THE EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF PUERTO RICO. OVER
ONE QUARTER INCH WAS NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN FLANKS OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WERE SEEN
OFFSHORE NORTH OF FAJARDO. THESE ARE THE FIRST SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. A RESPITE FOLLOWS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
EVENING...BUT MORE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AND LIKELY AN
ENCORE PERFORMANCE OF THE SHOWERS HAD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
STREAMS OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL
KEEP SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF TO A LESSER DEGREE...BRING GOOD
MOISTURE IN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...SLATED...TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS IS BRINGING
THE WAVE IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF
BY ABOUT 14 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST...ITS
EARLIER ARRIVAL ARGUES WELL FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE WAVE WILL ALSO ARRIVE EARLIER ALLOWING THE
TRAILING BAND OF GOOD MOISTURE TO CONTINUE DELIVERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTION...THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE STILL ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY...AT LEAST IN THE 700 MB LEVEL...WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER LATEST 28/00Z RUN IS NOT AS DRY OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO POINT THE WAY TO A WETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WEEKEND IN EARLY AUGUST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA THEN.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT POSSIBILITIES REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT TIST AND TJSJ FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND
THEREFORE...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWERS. OCNLY SURFACE WINDS AT TJBQ FROM
28/14-28/21Z WILL REACH 20G32KT AND 16G28KT AT TJSJ WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS AT TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WITH THE SECOND WAVE WILL INCREASE AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND IN THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. MEANWHILE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN MOST OF
THE EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 80 / 40 30 50 50
STT 90 80 90 81 / 30 40 40 60
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12187 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:28 am

See wave in progress as it moves westward.

Image

Image
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#12188 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:14 am

Tropical Activity
Image
Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12189 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:09 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012



BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO 19N45W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE ON SATELLITE HAS THE CLASSIC TROPICAL WAVE
APPEARANCE WITH A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
ABOUT THE AXIS. WHAT THIS WAVE LACKS IS CONVECTION...AND
FURTHERMORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 46W-49W AND THIS LIMITED ACTIVITY REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS AREAS OF SAHARAN
DUST TO THE NE AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N64W TO 19N61W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. AN INTERESTING WAVE AS IT HAS APPROACHED THE LESSER ANTILLES
DUE TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY WHICH APPEARED TO MERGE WITH THE WAVE
AROUND 60 TO 72 HOURS AGO. SOME OF THIS ENERGY HAS CONTINUED TO
DRIFT NORTH OF THE WAVE AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N61W TO 25N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NW
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE HOWEVER CONTINUES A
WESTWARD MOTION AND EXAMINING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO TRACK. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR THE WAVE IS SAHARAN
DUST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION AND ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
A 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N23W TO 10N31W TO 11N47W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO
07N54W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N
BETWEEN 15W-36W.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12190 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:10 pm

Here comes the rain from the Strong wave so prepare for that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF 20N IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS ITCZ MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A TUTT LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FOR SUNDAY....A FEW ROUNDS OF
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR..NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF ANASCO...RINCON...
AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALED STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AS
WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
SURGE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ POOLS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA AND MOST TAF
SITES AT LEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TSRA ACROSS
NW PR MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
28/22Z. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW 020-080K FT ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ELY L/LVL WNDS OF 15-25 KTS BLO 20K FT DECR W/HT ABV...AND
FEW CLDS ABV 10K FT...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ATTM...THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO GET 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 80 89 / 30 50 50 70
STT 80 90 81 90 / 40 40 60 70
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12191 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:10 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N46W TO 10N51W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR
THE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR
LAYER THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF
DUST NEAR THE WAVE...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE AXIS BESIDES
A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N64W
TO 11N67W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DUST. HOWEVER...THE WAVE DOES
ALIGN WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT EXTENDS TO ABOUT 15N. A
SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
14N-15N BETWEEN 67W-69W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND VENEZUELA E OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 14N17W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS THROUGH A 1011
MB SURFACE LOW AT 9N26W TO 11N39W 12N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-27W...AND FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 27W-35W.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12192 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:46 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH...TO SLIGHTLY ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY
COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS
CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE
FA...INCLUDING TJSJ OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
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#12193 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:12 am

Twave has gained more convection today and is continuing its approach towards the Eastern Carib islands...
Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12194 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:28 am

:rain: :rain: Good morning.That will be the main pattern for the islands in the Eastern Caribbean for the next few days as the strong wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST SUN JUL 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF 20N IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS ITCZ
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE ON
SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGANADA PASSAGE...THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
TO THE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ
POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 29/16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FRESH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AREA. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS AND SQUALLY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 78 / 40 50 70 60
STT 90 80 91 80 / 40 60 70 70
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12195 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:59 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N50W 17N51W 10N52W.
THE WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT HAS BEEN EASY TO FOLLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 11N IN
VENEZUELA TO 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB SHOW THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 11N25W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N30W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 9N30W TO 12N46W AND 10N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 14W AND 16W AND FROM 10N TO 11N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 18W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#12196 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:01 pm

:rain: :rain: Here it comes. Folks prepare for some squally weather that the strong wave will bring.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST SUN JUL 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS SLIGHTLY WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 56 WEST CONTINUED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME
DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FLARING UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ITS AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF
BARBADOS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.80 INCHES
OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS QUICK SURGE OF MOIST
AIR WAS SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE VERY EXPLOSIVE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF OVER LAND
AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
THE APPROACHING ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING DEEP
LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS ITCZ MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON MONDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE PASSAGE AND TRAILING THE
WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MOIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EACH DAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.


&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH...INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AS WELL AS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST 29/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM
SFC TO 10 KFT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME +TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 50 70 60 60
STT 81 90 80 89 / 60 70 70 70
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#12197 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:41 pm

Yellow alert has been activated this afternoon for Guadeloupe due to the arrival of the strong twave churning near Guadeloupe. A risk of strong showers and tstorms is highly possible given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. I will keep your informed as usual and as possible.
Be on your guard Msbee because of the Northern Leewards are also concerned about this active twave.
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#12198 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:57 pm

Today was very very hot in Guadeloupe. Meteo-France reported 35°C at Baillif! :eek: :double:
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Re:

#12199 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:07 pm

Gustywind wrote:Today was very very hot in Guadeloupe. Meteo-France reported 35°C at Baillif! :eek: :double:


That is very warm Gusty. Keep us informed as you said about the rainy weather that the Tropical Wave will bring.
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Re: Re:

#12200 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Today was very very hot in Guadeloupe. Meteo-France reported 35°C at Baillif! :eek: :double:


That is very warm Gusty. Keep us informed as you said about the rainy weather that the Tropical Wave will bring.

No problem Cycloneye :) as usual my friend and as possible. Hey, already looks like a line of showers is approaching quickly from our area.
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