Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
150 PM AST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A high amplitude upper level ridge extending
northwards across the region into the Central Atlantic will hold
through Saturday... then gradually erode as a trough across the
west and southwest Atlantic is forecast to amplify and sink
southward across Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. A surface trough
extends across the Greater Antilles into the Western Atlantic. A
broad area of high pressure centered across the Central Atlantic
will gradually weaken and lift northward over the upcoming weekend.
An induced surface low will continue to develop and lift northwards
towards the Eastern seaboard of the United States by late Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ridge aloft combined with mid level dry air resulted
in a generally fair weather pattern across most of the region today.
Expect these conditions to continue through Friday. Typical afternoon
showers over portions of Central and Western Puerto Rico will remain
possible each day mainly due to local sea breeze variations and local
effects. Upper level anticyclonic flow will continue to transport
intervals of mid to upper cloudiness across the region from time
to time.

Over the weekend and into early next week...the deep layered trough
is forecast to become amplified over the Bahamas and Cuba through
the weekend. This will support better moisture transport across
the east and northeastern Caribbean. By Sunday and into early
next...week upper ridge aloft is forecast to erode as the deepening
trough will sink southwards across Hispaniola and the Mona Passage.
Recent model guidance continued to suggest a wetter pattern during
the latter portion of the weekend as the upper trough amplifies
over the Greater Antilles. This scenario will lead to deep tropical
moisture transport across the local area.

The expected high moisture pooling combined with favorable upper
level conditions will increase the potential for enhanced and organized
convection across the forecast area... especially Sunday and into early
next week. This expected moist weather pattern is all dependent on how
the expected weather pattern unfolds over the western Atlantic during
the next few days. Regardless... all models suggest a much wetter pattern
during the latter part of the Memorial day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
VCSH across TJMZ and TJPS after 26/18Z until 26/22Z...with a slight
possibility of the SHRA affecting the terminals and causing MVFR
conds after 26/20Z. Winds prevailing from the E-NE with sea breeze
variations this afternoon...becoming light and variable after
27/00Z. VCSH across the local terminals overnight as brief SCT SHRA
affects the local area overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Fairly tranquil seas will continue through Friday with seas
up to 5 feet and winds generally around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 76 87 / 30 30 30 50
STT 79 87 78 86 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
617 AM AST FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
At upper level, a ridge aloft will continue to slowly erode
during the next few days, as a deep mid-upper level trough, with a
close low over Bahamas-Cuba, sinks southeast into the forecast
area during the weekend. At the surface...a low pressure system
located over the Bahamas is favoring moisture transport across the
Central and Eastern Caribbean. A broad area of high pressure
across the Central Atlantic continues to weaken. A tropical wave
located near the Lesser Antilles will approach the local area
during the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the local area overnight.
The Doppler radar detected shower activity across the local
waters...some of them moved inland but less than 0.10 inches of
rain were estimated. Coastal winds were light and variable with
temperatures ranging between the upper 70s and low 80s. For the
morning hours, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with
occasional passing showers across the local waters, the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the southern and eastern sections of Puerto
Rico. At this time, we cannot ruled out afternoon convection over
the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico.

Over the weekend and into early next week, the operational models
suggest a wetter pattern, as a mid-upper level ridge erodes and
the trough aloft amplified into the region. As a surface low
pressure system, near the Bahamas moves toward Eastern U.S., deep
tropical moisture will move into the local area. As a result, high
moisture content combined with favorable upper dynamics will
increase the potential for organized convection across the
forecast area, especially Sunday and Monday. This expected moist
weather pattern is all dependent on how the expected weather
pattern unfolds over the western Atlantic during the next few
days. Regardless, all models suggest a much wetter pattern during
the latter part of the Memorial day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions thru the rest of the night and
early in the morning with only VCSH across the Leeward
Islands...USVI and TJSJ taf sites until 27/14Z. SHRA and pos VCTS
after 27/17Z across TJMZ and TJBQ. Sfc winds will remain from the E
at around 10-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly tranquil seas will continue today with seas up to 5 feet
and winds generally around 10 to 15 knots...by Saturday winds are
expected to increase at 15 to 20 knots. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to increase across the local waters during
the weekend and into the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 40 30 50 40
STT 86 79 86 78 / 40 40 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
149 PM AST FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers continued to affect mostly the
eastern portions of Puerto Rico from mid morning to early
afternoon. Most of these showers have generated nay significant
rainfall accumulations. Another area of light to moderate showers
developed over the central interior of Puerto Rico Mainly affecting
the municipalities of Jayuya and Utuado.

A low pressure system located over the Bahamas will increase moisture
across the Central and Eastern Caribbean. A broad area of high
pressure across the Central Atlantic continues to weaken. A weak
tropical wave located south of Puerto Rico will continue to move
west and away from the region through Saturday.

Models guidance continue to suggests that the weekend could be
more active as moisture is forecast to increase across the local
region. This moisture increase may be heavily influenced by the
development of the disturbance to the north of the Bahamas,
therefore we will continue to monitor the development of this
disturbance and make changes to the forecast package as needed.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period with VCSH
for most of the terminals. Cloudiness over the area will cause CIGS
at around FL080 today and tonight. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA possible
across NNW PR...which could affect areas near TJBQ after 27/18Z.
Winds from the ESE at around 10KT...decreasing winds after 27/23Z.
Winds to increase to 10-15kt again after 28/13Z from the ESE with
sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Seas generally 3 to 5 feet and up to around 15 knots.
Winds to increase late tonight into Saturday to 15 to 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 88 / 30 50 40 50
STT 79 87 78 86 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
451 AM AST SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low located over the Bahamas...will remain
near stationary through at least midweek next week. The proximity
of this feature will maintain a moist and unstable environment
across the Central and Eastern Caribbean over the next several
days. Surface high pressure northeast of the area will keep a long
fetch southeasterly flow through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite loops showed an anticyclonic
circulation over the Bahamas associated with the aforementioned upper
level low. This feature aloft is sending a dense mid-upper level
clouds over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result...
expect mostly cloudy skies prevailing across the local region today.
Scattered showers will continue to affect portions of the local waters
and the windward areas during the morning hours. Then...deeper convection
still possible this afternoon across portions of the west interior
and northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon. The dense cloudiness will
inhibit somewhat the diurnal heating...resulting in near-normal max
temps as well as less shower and thunderstorm converage.

Deeper moisture is forecast to pool across the islands through midweek
next week...increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the islands...especially Sunday and Monday. Upper level dynamics
will remain favorable to support the development of thunderstorms
through at least early next week as upper trough dominates the local
region. Shower activity will likely cluster over the north and
northwest sections of Puerto Rico each afternoon as southeasterly
flow will prevail most of next week.

Then...mid to upper level ridge will establish over the region
bringing more stable conditions across the islands the second part
of next week. Although...moisture will remain slightly above normal
after midweek next week...stable conditions will likely limit the
coverage of the showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the forecast
period across the local flying area with vicinity SHRA across
TIST...TISX...TJSJ and TJPS. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA pos after 28/18Z
across NW PR...which could affect TJBQ and TJMZ. Sfc winds from the
E to SE at around 5 to 15 knots...with higher gusts near SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...Typical marine conditions will continue across the
local waters with seas generally 3 to 5 feet and winds around
10-15 knots. No significant changes are expected over the next
5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 40 40 50 40
STT 88 79 86 79 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
153 PM AST SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low located over the Bahamas and digging
into Cuba...will remain over that general area through at least
the middle of the upcoming week. There is also the current
Tropical Depression 2 to the north of the Bahamas...the proximity
of this Tropical Depression will help pull moisture from the south
and over the local area...the combination of these 2 features will
keep a moist and unstable environment across the Central and
Eastern Caribbean for the next few days. Surface high pressure
northeast of the local area will keep a southeasterly flow through
the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to locally numerous showers affected the
local islands in the morning and early afternoon hours...mostly
over the island of St. Croix as well as northern and eastern PR.
Some minor and urban flooding was observed over PR as well as
rapid river rises on those river stemming from El Yunque
Rainforest. As of this writing...showers are still affecting
portions of northern and eastern PR but they have diminished in
intensity. Latest guidance and current observations indicate that
some showers are still expected this afternoon across the north
and eastern portions of PR including the islands of Vieques and
Culebra...some light rain expected over St. Croix.

The upper trough is expected to move slightly to the west by
Sunday...which will cause slightly less instability in the upper
levels over the local area. This means that even though there is
still plenty of available moisture...the expected cloud cover and
the slightly less upper level dynamics should cause less shower
and thunderstorm activity on Sunday. Having said that...there is
still a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the local area.

For next week...the upper trough is still expected to be over Cuba
and perhaps a bit northwest of the Bahamas...this will give way to
an upper ridge establishing over the local islands next week. This
means that we expect to have plenty of moisture with a
southeasterly wind flow but a ridge in the mid and upper levels
which should limit thunderstorm development to only isolated
thunderstorms once the moisture combines with the local effects.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH across most of the local terminals. CIGS at
around FL060 through the afternoon. SE wind flow may cause SHRA to
move into TJSJ later in the afternoon and some SHRA may develop
near TJBQ. Winds will decrease to around 5-10kt after 28/23Z then
increase once again to around 10-15kt after 29/12z.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution for winds up to 20
knots and seas increasing up to 6 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters tonight...decreasing up to 5 feet on Sunday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected over the waters
through the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 88 / 40 50 40 40
STT 79 86 79 86 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
152 PM AST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low located over the Bahamas and digging
into Cuba...will remain over that general area through at least
the middle of the week. There is also an area of deeper moisture
from the south that will move over the local area...the
combination of these 2 features will keep a moist and unstable
environment across the Central and Eastern Caribbean for the next
few days. Surface high pressure northeast of the local area will
keep an east southeasterly flow through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to locally numerous showers affected the
local islands in the morning and early afternoon hours...mostly
over north and eastern PR in the morning and into the
afternoon...then across the northwestern quadrant of PR in the
afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning...which caused urban and small stream flooding.
Rapid river rises were observed on those river stemming from El
Yunque Rainforest. Latest guidance and current observations
indicate that showers and thunderstorms are still expected for the
rest of this afternoon across the northwestern quadrant of
PR...while brief showers are expected elsewhere.

The upper trough is still expected to move slightly to the west
tonight...which may cause slightly less instability in the upper
levels over the local area. However...there is still plenty of
available moisture and instability to cause showers and
thunderstorms on Monday...in fact...the latest high resolution
guidance suggests that Monday afternoon will be similar to today.

For the rest of the week...the upper trough is still expected to
be over Cuba and perhaps a bit northwest of the Bahamas...this
will give way to an upper ridge slowly establishing over the
local islands. This means that we expect to have plenty of
moisture with a southeasterly wind flow but a ridge in the mid and
upper levels which should somewhat limit thunderstorm development
to only isolated thunderstorms once the moisture combines with the
local effects. Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected
on Tuesday afternoon but with slightly less coverage and intensity
according to guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR conds possible at TJBQ due to TSRA over the
area until about 29/20Z. SHRA/TSRA may also affect TJMZ and the
vicinity of the rest of the terminals this afternoon. Sct brief
SHRA expected overnight causing brief VCSH across the local
terminals except TJMZ and TJBQ. Winds from the ESE up to 15 kt
with gusts near SHRA/TSRA...decreasing to 10kt or less overnight.


&&

.MARINE...Seas generally 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots
overnight and into Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 77 89 / 40 40 30 30
STT 81 86 79 85 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trough across the western atlantic will
continue to promote unstable atmospheric conditions across the
region next few days. deep low level moisture will continue to
move across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Round of showers and thunderstorms were seen across
the local area overnight. periods of moderate to heavy showers
were observed mainly across the eastern half of puerto rico.
Rainfall accumulation were between half to one inch in localized
areas. An upper level trough across Bahamas...Cuba and Hispaniola
will remain over that area for the next few days. This feature
will continue to maintain a relatively unstable weather pattern
across the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A
surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain a
southeast low level wind flow across the region until at least the
middle of the week. Abundant tropical low level moisture embedded
in this southeast wind flow in combination with daytime heating
and local effects are expected to produce a new round of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across
interior...western and northern Puerto Monday Afternoon. No
significant changes to the present weather pattern is expected
until the middle of the week and probably through the end of the
work week...as deep low level moisture maintains good chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the rest of the
forecast period with SHRA in and around the Leeward and USVI
terminals as well as TJSJ during the morning. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
are expected north and northwest of PR...pos affecting TJBQ/TJMZ and
possible TJSJ mainly after 30/16Z. Winds from the E to SE at around
5 to 10 knots...increasing to 10-15 knots after 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively tranquil marine conditions will prevail with
seas generally of 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 78 / 50 30 40 40
STT 88 81 87 81 / 50 40 40 50

[Gustywind]

Hi my friend, i'm back in the business with you
How are you CYCLONEYE? Hope you're in shape for this 2016 season.
Regards.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Hi my friend, i'm back in the business with you
How are you CYCLONEYE? Hope you're in shape for this 2016 season.
Regards.
Gustywind

Welcome back my friend.

[Gustywind]

Glad to see you, thanks for replying me .

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
141 PM AST MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge north of the region and broad surface
trough spread across the central and eastern caribbean...will
maintain a moist southeasterly wind flow across the forecast area
through most of the work week. High amplitude trough across the
west Atlantic extending southwards into the Western Caribbean will
hold through the end of the week. Meanwhile upper level ridge will
remain positioned over the Northeastern Caribbean through the end
of the week. The present overall pattern aloft will maintain a west
southwest flow and diffluence aloft along with good ventilation for
convective development most of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The combination of the upper trough just west of
the region along with a significant moist environment...local and
diurnal effects will continue to support rapid development of showers
and thunderstorm activity across portions of the islands and coastal
waters today and at least until Wednesday. Some of the showers and
thunderstorms will continue to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds which will eventually lead to minor flooding of urban
areas... rivers and small streams especially along portions of the
northern half of Puerto Rico including parts of the San Juan metro
area.

The activity over land should taper off and diminish just after
sunset leaving variably cloudy skies over land. Another round of
showers an isolated thunderstorms will develop across the coastal
waters during the late evening and overnight hours. The persistent
southeasterly flow will steer these showers across portion of the
east and south coastal sections of the islands during the morning
hours. On Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday...expect showers
and thunderstorm activity to quickly develop once again over the
interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. This will again increase
the potential for urban and small stream flooding mainly across
Puerto Rico.

One note of concern is that although there may be periods of lesser
shower activity in some areas during the next few days...the soil
remain very saturated across portions of the northern half and
east sections of Puerto Rico. Some rivers and streams will continue
to run just above their normal levels especially in parts of the
east interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Mudslides will
also remain possible in areas of steep terrain. For this reason...
residents...motorists and visitors in these areas should remain
alert and continue to monitor for any statements and bulletins
issued by the National Weather Service San Juan Puerto Rico.

For the long term ...By the end of the work week model guidance
suggest slight decrease in moisture transport and weakening of the
ridge aloft...as the upper trough west of the region fills and a
short wave trough moves just north of the area. Although lesser
dynamics and upper level support is expected by then...they will
still be sufficient low level moisture to allow daytime heating
and local terrain effects to lead to afternoon convection each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/-TSRA still possible across mainland PR thru 22z.
Impacting mainly JSJ/JBQ/JMZ with at least periods of MVFR cigs.
Mountain top obscd likely at el Yunque and the Cordillera Central of
PR. Tops around Fl250-300 will continue over the waters between the
USVI and eastern PR terminals during the overnight hours...creating
mainly VCSH but -RA over the terminals at times. Low level winds
will continue ESE around 10-15 knots...but sfc winds will be light
and variable overnight.


&&

.MARINE...Seas expected to remain below 4 feet and southeast
winds will continue between 10-15 knots. However higher wind gusts
can be expected near enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity
which is expected to continue overnight through Tuesday. Dangerous
lightning strikes will also be likely with thunderstorms that develop
over the coastal waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin
Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 89 / 30 40 40 40
STT 80 87 81 86 / 50 50 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge north of the region and broad surface
trough spread across the central and eastern caribbean...will
maintain a moist southeasterly wind flow across the forecast area
through most of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with thunderstorms
were observed across Puerto rico overnight. periods of very heavy
rainfall was observerd mainly over the southeast section of Puerto
rico. Rainfall accumulation between one to two inches were
recorded in some localized areas.

The combination of the upper trough just west of the region along
with a significant moist environment...local and diurnal effects
will continue to support rapid development of showers and
thunderstorm activity across portions of the islands and coastal
waters today and at least until Wednesday. Some of the showers and
thunderstorms will continue to produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds which will eventually lead to minor
flooding of urban areas... rivers and small streams especially
along portions of the northern half of Puerto Rico including parts
of the San Juan metro area. it is important to mentioned that
soils are saturated over the southeast...eastern interior and east
sections of puerto rico with recent periods of heavy rainfall.
therefore...any additional rainfall...will result in rapid rises
in the rivers and creeks across these areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly cloudy with VCSH across the eastern region during
the morning with brief periods of MVFR cond pos in and around USVI
terminals...TJSJ and TJPS. After 31/16Z...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
expected over and north of the Cordillera...pos affecting TJBQ/TJMZ
and TJSJ. Winds from the ESE at around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...Winds are expected to increase across the coastal
waters...mainly in the Atlantic waters. As a result...small craft
should exercise caution as seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 15
knots are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
STT 86 78 85 78 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
212 PM AST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Thursday with some localized flooding then taper off to nearly
nothing by Sunday as drier air enters the area beginning Friday.

At upper levels...a ridge extends north from the U.S.
Virgin Islands. At our latitudes this ridge retrogresses west
across Puerto Rico Thursday morning with high pressure continuing
over the western and central Caribbean Sea until it builds north
over the southern Bahama islands next Tuesday.

At mid levels...High pressure over the tropical Atlantic extends
over the southern Caribbean Sea. High pressure will continue there
and build northeast of the forecast area through Friday. High
pressure continues over the Greater Antilles through much of next
week.

At lower levels...Moderate high pressure continues over the
central Atlantic through Sunday generating east southeast trade
winds over the local area. The high will retreat to the east
northeast but the flow will continue. Drier air with some Saharan
dust will enter the area early Friday and increase through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong showers and thunderstorms with frequent
lightning launched over the area early in the afternoon after
light passing showers this morning. More showers are now entering
Puerto Rico from the southeast and heavy rain is growing over east
central Puerto Rico in air with close to two and one quarter
inches of precipitable water. The Galvez-Davison Index will
increase this afternoon and tonight while an area of moderate
divergence aloft moves across the U.S. Virgin Islands to Puerto
Rico. Moisture is expected to continue at similar levels through
Thursday evening according to the GFS precipitable water
depiction. This will allow periods of urban and small stream
flooding to occur for the next several days most of which will
occur during the afternoons and early evenings. Tonight`s
thunderstorms are expected to remain active over the local waters
until late tonight.

On Friday drier air carrying Saharan dust will move into the area
and begin to choke off most of the convection which will be slight
by Sunday according to current solutions. Driest air is now shown
to occur Monday morning with about 1.3 inches of precipitable
water. A tropical wave that passes mainly south of the area will
allow us to regain some of the moisture we currently have by mid
week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and TSRA will continue to affect the flying area
through tonight. Although most of the SHRA and TSRA will remain over
water...some passing SHRA could reach TJSJ and the USVI terminals
the rest of the afternoon and this evening...resulting in brief MVFR
CIGS. SFC Winds from the ESE at around 10 to 15 knots with stronger
gusts.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas have increased over buoy 41043 which is
now running just a tad over 6.5 feet with winds around 18 knots.
Winds and seas over the local area except for the local near
shore waters are running somewhat below this. Local winds and
seas will increase through Thursday and the risk of rip currents
will also become high by Thursday in the current forecast.
Conditions begin to improve after Friday. At this time small craft
advisories are not anticipated but seas will be close to 7 feet in
the northern outer waters and the Anegada passage until Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 87 / 60 60 40 40
STT 78 86 78 82 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level trough will continue to prevail
across the central Caribbean, while a short wave ridge extends
across the eastern Caribbean. East southeast winds are expected
to prevail across the local islands through Friday as a surface
high pressure holds across the central Atlantic. The trough to
our west and the moist east southeast wind flow will continue
to promote a wet pattern across the forecast area through early
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy skies were observed across the local
islands overnight and early this morning. Areas of showers and
thunderstorms...with heavy rainfall...gusty winds...and frequent
lightning...moved across the south coastal areas of Puerto Rico
through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms were also observed
across the Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage.

The mid to upper level trough to our west and the short wave ridge
over and east of the local islands will continue to promote a
divergent pattern across the forecast area. The aforementioned
pattern combined with a moist east southeast wind flow will
continue to result in wet/unstable conditions across the local
islands through early Friday. As a result, continue to expect
showers and thunderstorms moving inland, affecting the USVI as
well as the east and south coastal areas of Puerto Rico this
morning, and spreading over and north of the Cordillera Central
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Although activity
over and north of the Cordillera will depend on how fast current
cloud cover decreases. Due to already saturated soils...urban
and small stream flooding expected with the heaviest showers with
mudslides and flash flooding possible along the main rivers and
tributaries of eastern Puerto Rico.

Intensity and areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
decrease on Thursday as the upper level ridge intensifies. However
still expect showers and thunderstorms across windward areas in
the morning and evening hours, with the strongest showers and
thunderstorms developing once again over and north of the
Cordillera in the afternoon.

As the ridge continues to intensify late Friday and Saturday, a
drier air mass will also move in from the east to result in fair
and stable weather conditions during the upcoming weekend and
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs FL025...FL050. SHRA and Isold TSRA
over regional area til 01/14Z...causing at least VCSH across most
of the local terminals and MVFR conds possible across TJPS and the
leeward islands. Mtn obscurations due to cloudiness. SFC Winds
from the E with variations near SHRA at around 5-10 kts til
01/14Z...incr to 10- 15 kts aft 01/14z with higher gusts in
passing showers.

&&

.MARINE...Fresh winds across the regional waters will keep the
seas around 4-6 feet through Thursday. Then...Marine conditions
improve somewhat as surface high pressure over the Central
Atlantic weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 40
STT 88 77 87 76 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
215 PM AST WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will taper off tonight, but
re-form tomorrow during the day. As drier air moves in at mid
levels overnight on Thursday, convective activity will diminish. A
Saharan dust episode will choke off nearly all convection by
Sunday and Sunday night. Limited mid-level moisture will return
by Tuesday of next week.

At upper levels...A ridge extending north through the
British Virgin Islands will move west over Puerto Rico Thursday
morning and will lean to the east as we enter the weekend. High
pressure will then consolidate over the western and central
Caribbean Sea--moving north into the Bahama Islands mid week next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure over the tropical Atlantic extends
west northwest over the waters north of the area. The high
continues to extend west and a ridge extends over the local area
over the weekend and into next week.

At lower levels...High pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to drive east southeast trade winds over the area. The
high will slowly weaken and pull northeast during the following 7
days. Drier Saharan air will move over the area beginning Thursday
night and continue into next week with some dust.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms developed over Puerto Rico
during the midday hours bringing heavy rain and the potential for
local urban and small stream flooding. The showers should taper
off during the evening hours. The models are indicating at least
one more day of active weather, aided by limited divergence
aloft, before the mid levels begin to dry out. Precipitable water
values were near two and one quarter inches and will hold until
Thursday evening. Then on Friday moisture will begin to drop.
Current models show a drop below 1.5 inches by Monday evening, and
this timing is just a little later than previous runs yesterday.
One difference however is that the GFS is no longer showing a
significant recovery. Moisture peaks near 1.75 inches Tuesday
afternoon and then drops to almost 1 inch by the following
weekend.

Expect similar weather tomorrow followed by a slow drying out
period that will continue into Sunday. It is possible that Sunday
and Monday will have no thunderstorms at all and only spotty
showers. Also the NASA GEOS-5 forecast shows significant dust
moving into the area on Friday and Saturday. It is likely this
will reduce visibilities below 10 miles over much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to continue across mainland PR
thru at least 22z. Impacting mainly JSJ/JBQ/JMZ with at least MVFR
conditions. Mountain top obscd likely at el Yunque and the
Cordillera Central of PR. VCSH across the rest of the terminals
during the overnight hours. Low level winds will continue ESE around
10-22 knots.

&&

.MARINE...The wavewatch model has been very close with its
forecast for buoy 41043. Currently it is showing 7 to 8 feet
beginning tonight and continuing through Friday due to slightly
increased trade winds. Some of these seas are expected to impact
the northeastern corner of our local outer waters. Therefore have
issued a small craft advisory beginning tonight for AMZ710. Seas
should be below 7 feet beginning overnight Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 89 / 40 40 40 40
STT 76 87 76 89 / 40 40 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN JUAN PR
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
442 AM AST THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge aloft will intensify, as a mid to upper level trough
across the western Atlantic and central Caribbean continues to weaken.
East southeast winds are expected to prevail across the local islands
through Friday as a surface high pressure holds across the central Atlantic.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
with a somewhat drier weather pattern and hazy skies expected to prevail
Friday and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands overnight
and early this morning with a few passing showers observed across
the USVI and the east coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Coastal
temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s and winds were east
southeast at 10 mph or less. As the upper level ridge intensifies
across the forecast area, the intensity and areal coverage of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will decrease. However shower
and thunderstorm development still expected over and north of the
Cordillera Central this afternoon due to enough moisture, diurnal
heating and local effects. Due to already saturated soils...urban
and small stream flooding is also possible. As the ridge holds
across the eastern Caribbean Friday and into the upcoming weekend,
low level moisture will erode across the forecast area. This will
result in a generally fair and mainly stable weather pattern with
a few locally induced showers and thunderstorms across the western
interior of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Hazy skies are also
expected as SAL reaches the eastern Caribbean. Low level moisture
will increase across the local area early next week as a mid to
upper level trough develops across the tropical Atlantic and into
the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected through 02/15Z across the local terminals.
SHRA/TSRA development expected thereafter, likely causing VCSH/VCTS
at TJSJ, TJBQ, and TJMZ with possible MVFR conds at TJBQ between
02/17Z and 02/20Z in possible TSRA. Increasing clouds through the
day will also cause MTN obscurations. SFC winds from the ESE to SE
at around 5-10kt until 02/12Z, increasing to 10-15kt and gusty near
SHRA/TSRA after 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh winds across the regional waters will keep the seas
around 4-7 feet over the next few days. As a result...a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the Offshore Atlantic Waters through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 40 40 40 20
STT 87 76 89 79 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
239 PM AST THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will continue to build over
the eastern Caribbean during the next few days. Saharan air layer
will continue to fill over the forecast area and promote drier air
at the mid levels. Hazy skies expected through the weekend. At low
levels...east to southeast trade winds will continue to promote
low level moisture over the islands.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with thunderstorms
were observed early in the afternoon hours across the
north/northwest sections of PR. Gusty winds and frequent lightning
was observed with this activity. Showers over el Yunque area
continued through much of the day and rivers were running high.
Flooding was observed with this activity early in the morning
hours. For the rest of the afternoon hours...showers and
thunderstorms are still possible across the mountain ranges of PR
and to the north/northwest of them due to the southeasterly wind
flow.

As ridge aloft and SAl intrusion persist through early next week
fair weather conditions should prevail as moisture erodes
gradually each day. However...low level trades can bring patches
of moisture each day...promoting passing showers during the
overnight hours across the USVI and windward areas. Followed by
limited afternoon convection over western PR each afternoon.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected under southeasterly
wind flow and limited cloudiness by next week.

&&

.AVIATION...EAST OF VIEQUES...VFR PREVAILING WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR AT
TNCM, TKPK THRU 03/22Z. For PR...SCT TSRA/SHRA with MVFR/IFR conds
and mtn obscurations til aft 03/02z...tops to FL460...then bcmg VFR.
All areas...vsbys deteriorating blo FL180 in Saharan dust to btwn 6-
10 SM btwn 03/06-12z. Winds ESE 5 to 15 kt. Winds alf e to 15 kt up
to FL060 then VRB10KT to FL260.


&&

.MARINE...Local buoys are indicating seas between 3-4 feet and
east to southeast winds around 15 knots with higher gusts. Small
craft advisory continues in effect through Friday as seas up to 7
feet are possible across the offshore Atlantic waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 89 / 40 40 20 20
STT 80 88 79 82 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST FRI JUN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will hold across the eastern
Caribbean during the next few days. At lower levels, high pressure
ridge across the central Atlantic will continue to promote east
southeast winds through early next week. SAL will continue to
move in across the eastern Caribbean today. Under the
aforementioned pattern, expect mainly fair and stable weather
conditions with locally induced afternoon showers and hazy skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local
islands overnight and early this morning with a few passing
showers observed across the USVI and the east coastal areas of
Puerto Rico. Coastal temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s
and winds were light and variable.

As the ridge aloft holds across the eastern Caribbean, low level
moisture will continue to erode with SAL intrusion from the east
southeast. This will result in a generally fair and mainly
stable weather pattern with hazy skies and a few locally induced
showers and thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico each afternoon.
Showers embedded in the east southeast wind flow cant be ruled
out each day across the windward areas. The aforementioned east
southeast wind flow will also promote warm to hot temperatures
along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico. These conditions should
prevail through at least the upcoming weekend.

Low level moisture will increase across the local area early next
week as an upper level trough develops across the tropical
Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean. However, this feature
will quickly move west into the central Caribbean with a broad
mid to upper level ridge pattern building across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through 03/16Z across all of the
local terminals. VCSH is expected through the morning hours across
all of the terminals except TJMZ. Thereafter, SHRA development is
possible over Puerto Rico, in areas in and around TJSJ, TJBQ, and
TJMZ. ISOLD TSRA possible near TJBQ and TJMZ. Saharan dust is
making its way into the local area so some haze is expected. Low
level winds will continue ESE around 10-15 knots with sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have generated seas from the east southeast that
exceed 7 feet in the outer Atlantic waters. Therefore a small
craft advisory continues through tonight. Elsewhere seas up to 6
feet and winds around 15 knots. There is a moderate to high risk
of rip currents across the exposed beaches of N Puerto Rico,
Culebra and St Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 80 86 80 / 20 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
304 PM AST FRI JUN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will continue to build over
the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. By late Sunday a tutt
low will establish over the Caribbean basin. Saharan air layer
will continue to fill over the forecast area and promote drier air
at the mid levels. Hazy skies expected through the weekend. At low
levels...surface high over the central Atlantic will continue to
promote east to southeast trade winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to Scattered showers with thunderstorms
were observed early in the afternoon hours across the
northwest quadrant of PR. Strong gusty winds are still possible
across western PR through late afternoon. It remained mostly dry
and hazy elsewhere as Saharan dust filtered across the region from
the east.

As ridge aloft promotes a cap inversion and SAl intrusion persist
through early next week...fair weather conditions should prevail
as moisture erodes gradually each day. However...low level trades
can bring patches of moisture each day...promoting passing showers
during the overnight hours across the USVI and windward areas.
Followed by limited afternoon convection over western PR each
afternoon. Upper tutt could provide some upper level dynamics but
overall with SAL and cap inversion...we expect at the moment that
widespread rain activity is not likely. Warmer than normal
temperatures are expected under southeasterly wind flow...with
heat index reaching the low 100s across some coastal areas.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through 04/22Z across all of the
local terminals except for ocnl MVFR CIGS arnd TNCM and TKPK.
TSRA/SHRA development in progress over Puerto Rico in WNW quadrant
but coverage remains SCT. Saharan dust continues in the local area
so some haze is expected. Surface visibilities arnd sunset may be
reduced to as little as 6 mi. Low level winds will continue ESE
around 10-15 knots with sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will subside between 4-6 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters later this evening. Latest buoy observations are
indicating seas between 3-5 feet and east winds at 10-15 knots.
High rip current risk continues in effect until Saturday morning
across northern PR...Culebra and St. Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 80 86 80 86 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
538 AM AST SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Saharan dust is present over the local area, causing
hazy skies, expected to improve by Monday. There is also a mid to
upper ridge over the area, which will cause a relatively stable
atmosphere. However, isolated to scattered showers still expected
due to the above average total moisture. Surface high pressure
will continue to promote easterly to ESE winds through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered brief showers were observed across the
local area during the overnight hours. Even though there is
Saharan dust over the area and a ridge in the mid and upper
levels, there is plenty of moisture to promote passing showers
embedded in the trades through the early morning hours. Even
though the mid levels are a bit drier, there is enough moisture to
cause some shower development across the western portions of PR.
Having said that, there is only a slight chance of thunderstorm
development.

Latest guidance suggests that the upper ridge may be moving
slightly to the west on Sunday, giving way to some troughiness
near the local area. This means that Sunday may not be as dry as
we thought because there is also some guidance suggesting that the
Saharan dust will decrease significantly for Sunday afternoon. The
combination of the ridge moving west, the reduction of the Saharan
dust, and the available moisture still being above average, could
allow for some showers and a few thunderstorms to develop on
Sunday afternoon across the northwestern quadrant of PR, with
isolated brief showers elsewhere.

Moisture decreases a bit on Monday and guidance suggests a lesser
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing moisture again on
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which will increase the shower
activity once again. However, from Thursday on through the end of
the week, the available moisture is expected to decrease
significantly, with an upper ridge over the local area, promoting
stable conditions and only locally induces showers with a few
brief showers at night and early morning.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through 04/16z,
with brief SHRA possible at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well
as JSJ early this morning. SHRA development is expected over
Puerto Rico aft 04/16z in and around JSJ, JBQ, and JMZ. ISOLD TSRA
possible near JBQ and JMZ. Low level winds will continue ESE
around 10-15 knots with sea breeze variations. Saharan dust
continues to affect the flying area, reducing somewhat the
visibilities at times.


&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect winds at 10 to 20 knots and seas up
to 6 feet today across the offshore Atlantic waters. As a result,
small craft operators should exercise caution. Winds up to
15 knots and seas up to 5 feet elsewhere. Beachgoers should be
cautious across the local beaches due to a moderate risk of rip
currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 20 20 20 20