Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ERODING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE PERTURBATION AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST
OF THE ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST END OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...WHERE SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY DETECTED BY THE
DOPPLER RADAR WAS DOWNWIND FROM ST THOMAS/ST JOHN AND AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION...THE WEST AND
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND CAN EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...THE WETTEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY...AND MONDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION PRODUCING SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 73 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 84 73 84 / 50 50 40 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE ISLANDS SUN-MON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ITS REPLACED BY A STRONGER
ONE. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE
USVI/WINDWARD AREAS OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PR AND STREAMERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE USVI.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND INDUCED SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AND NIGHT TIME TRADE WIND
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. THIS WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY. THIS WILL RETURN NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND
LIMITING THE LOCAL WEATHER TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR THRU THE END OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 17-
21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FADE TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 73 / 30 30 30 50
STT 84 73 85 73 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL PROMOTE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
INDUCED TROUGH AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED EARLY IN THE MORNING...
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AS A PATCH OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SO FAR...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MINIMAL SO FAR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INDUCED TROUGH REACHES THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND THEREFORE THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WELL. ATTM DECIDED TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS
ISOLATED AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DUE
TO THE LACK OF UPPER VENTILATION. HAVING SAID THAT...EXPECT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PR
TONIGHT... WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...THE FREQUENCY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK FROM THE SOUTH...AND HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL THEN ERODE WITH A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR LATE FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 17-
21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS 4-6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP
TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED UNDER EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN
18 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 73 85 / 30 30 50 50
STT 73 85 73 84 / 50 50 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS LATER DURING THE WEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL PROMOTE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED INDUCED TROUGH
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW OF
THEM REACHING SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS WAS
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MIMIC PWAT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEN IN
THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR AND SPREAD A LITTLE MORE OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AT LEAST UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE INDUCED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. BEST
PWAT WILL POOL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
FREQUENCY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE USVI
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THAT PERIOD...AND WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PWAT PEAKS OVER PR AROUND 15/18Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN ERODE WITH A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
FOR LATE FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA COULD AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINAL COULD EXPERIENCE
-SHRA AT TIMES THRU 14Z. THEN...A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTERNOON AND MAY
RESULT IN VCTS TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17-21Z. HOWEVER...NO SIG IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. SEAS BELOW
5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 74 / 30 50 50 40
STT 84 74 84 75 / 50 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AS A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WHILE WEAKENING...
RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
THE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NORTH...WITH ASSOCIATED INDUCED TROUGH AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND THEREFORE THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL. ATTM DECIDED TO KEEP JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY...DUE TO
THE LACK OF UPPER VENTILATION.

HAVING SAID THAT...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
THEN ERODE WITH A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. FOR LATE FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS/SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. THE LEEWARD AND USVI TAF CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PASSING -SHRA
AND SHRA. SOME OF THIS SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAINLY
OVER TNCM. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY OVER TJBQ BETWEEN 17-22Z.
SOME OF THESE ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
SFC WINDS FORM THE E AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA
DECREASING AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE DUE TO INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 88 / 50 50 40 40
STT 74 84 75 85 / 60 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST MON FEB 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED AND BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS TO THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ALONG WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR HOWEVER SHOWED ISOLATED
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS SO FAR WERE OF SHORT DURATION.
EXPECT THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD
WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REST OF REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS ALONG
WITH A 70-80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION AND INSTABILITY FOR
SOME ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE FREQUENCY OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IS SO FAR EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK....RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH... SHOULD AGAIN BRING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY MOIST WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS MORNING PRODUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL
15/16Z. VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFFECTING
TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 15/17Z-15/22Z. SOME OF THESE ACTIVITY COULD
ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING... INCREASING TO AROUND
15KT AND GUSTY AFTER 15/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
AN INCREASE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AS A RESULT CHOPPY TO ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 87 74 / 70 40 40 20
STT 83 74 85 75 / 70 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON FEB 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH AND A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
REINFORCED AND BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY PREVAILED LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW OF THE REGION
INTERACTED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH...WARM MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT TIME.

AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL THEN ERODE WITH A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE PROXIMITY OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A POLAR TROUGH FROM
THE WEST. IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS...AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS IN SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE USVI AND PR TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
15/22Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MOSTLY VFR
CONDS AT LEEWARD TERMINALS. WINDS ESE AT 15 KNOTS BECOMING 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS INCREASED TO HIGH THE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOME BEACHES OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND ST
CROIX. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND THE
CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS...EXPECT SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 89 / 40 40 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST TUE FEB 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE HIGH IS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO REESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. BY
THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH IS TO ERODE AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS EACH DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS AND OF SHORT DURATION AS
THE EASTERLY TRADE ARE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE APPROACHES AND SETS
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJBQ. FEW SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
16/16Z ACROSS INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PR...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AREAS IN
AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN UNTIL 16/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY AFTER 16/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY...41043...CONTINUED AROUND 10
FEET BETWEEN 9 TO 11 SECS AS THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEAR SHORE BUOY 41053 SUGGESTED
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. RECENT OBS SUGGESTS
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR
THIS REASON CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 88 74 / 40 20 20 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 50 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST TUE FEB 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THEN....AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED
STREAMERS OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE
LOCAL WATERS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
ALSO...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WAS OBSERVED OVER AND
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL. THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
GENERATING A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A POLAR TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS...AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHRA POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND JBQ BETWEEN 16/20Z AND 16/23Z. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING NEAR 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES AT 15 TO 22 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE
INDICATING 5 TO 7 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BEACH
GOERS...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO A HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 74 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 86 75 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST WED FEB 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. THESE FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED ONLY SMALL AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHTS
AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS...WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ERODING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLAND INDUCING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TIL 17/15Z AND IN NW PR AFTER 17/17Z
TIL AROUND 17/22Z...OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
HIGHEST TERRAIN EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 17/17Z. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME 10 TO 15 KT AFTER 17/14Z WITH MINIMAL SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. ESE WINDS TURN TO WNW AROUND FL180 AND STRENGTHEN TO
ALMOST 80 KNOTS AROUND FL460.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REACHING 7 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 75 / 20 20 20 40
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 30 30 50

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST WED FEB 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
A DEEP POLAR TROUGH SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL AREAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S AND WINDS WERE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
REACHING ITS MAXIMUM LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
MOISTURE AND THE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AHEAD OF THE POLAR TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY. AS POLAR TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
SHEAR LINE CROSSES THE AREA...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND UNDER COOLING OF THE
MID- LEVELS DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL THEN TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HAVING SAID THAT...EXPECT A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DUE TO EROSION OF RIDGE ALOFT. FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND
THEREFORE A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE NEXT WORK WEEK AS RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...-SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED ON E-SE WIND FLOW EN ROUTE FM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO EASTERN PR COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. BTW
18/17Z-22Z SHRA AND POSSIBLE -TSRA CAN DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR/NW
QUADRANT OF PR...CREATING MTN TOP OBSCD AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
JMZ/JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ESE AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS
EXPECTED 4 TO 6 FEET WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 85 / 30 30 40 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST THU FEB 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE RAPIDLY TODAY AS
A POLAR TROUGH SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EASTWARD RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED SMALL AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE RAPIDLY TODAY
AS A DEEP POLAR TROUGH SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLAND
INDUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FCST PRD. FEW PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS AND VCNTY...
TIST...TISX...TKPK..TNCM...AND TJSJ TIL 18/14Z. SCT OCNL CLD LYRS...
FL025...FL050...ISOLD TOPS 120. L/LVL WINDS FM ESE 5-15 KTS BLO
FL150..BCM FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV WITH MAX WND AROUND 60-70 KTS NR
FL450 THRU 18/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ALTHOUGH SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 74 85 74 / 30 40 40 50
STT 84 75 84 74 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST THU FEB 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH IS SUSTAINING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AT MID-UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAS BEEN DELAYED SOMEWHAT TODAY.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THE POLAR TROUGH
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...DEEP CONVECTION
IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOME SECTIONS OF NORTH
AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FAVORING
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS MOMENT...THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WHEN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
PASSES BY. WITH THE SHEAR LINE OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. ALL IN
ALL...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FEW
DAYS...NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MTN TOPS OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AT JMZ/JBQ DUE TO POSSIBLE -TSRA AND SHRA TILL 23Z.
ELSEWHERE...SHRA INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL CREATE MAINLY VCSH WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF -
RA/RA ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI/EAST AND SOUTH PR TERMINALS THRU THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD. SCT-BKN LAYERS FL030-FL070...W/ MAX
TOPS 020-025 OVER THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ESE AT
10-15 KTS...BCMG ENE AFTER 19/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FEET INSIDE
OF THE REGIONAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PULSES OF A SHORT-PERIOD
NE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY WILL
TRIGGER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 40 40 50 50
STT 75 84 74 84 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST FRI FEB 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN 80-100 KNOT JET WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HOURS LATER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALSO PASS AND FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. TONIGHT FLOW WILL
SLOWLY TURN BACK TO WEST UNTIL A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NOT PASS TO THE EAST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...AFTER THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH TODAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT A HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE AND MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. IT WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE NEXT WEEK LEAVING A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. MODEST MOISTURE DISAPPEARS MONDAY NIGHT AND
REAPPEARS LATE FRIDAY AS A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEARLINE IS CROSSING THROUGH PUERTO RICO WITH
DIFFICULTY AND WILL BE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO DISSIPATED JUST
BEFORE 2 AM AST. SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF OUR LOCAL WATERS AND ALSO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS MARK OUT THE AIR BEHIND THE
SHEARLINE. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CAME CLOSE TO SAINT CROIX...NONE OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE REPORTED ANY RAIN OVERNIGHT. BUOYS
ALREADY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS TO OUR NORTHWEST ARE SHOWING
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MODELS UNIVERSALLY SHOWED NORTH WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BUOYS AND FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THESE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO FADE SUNDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY MODELS HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
TO BRING SHOWERS ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND INTO SUNDAY.
BEST RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...BUT RAIN COULD COME ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO AND CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS SOON AS THE WINDS HAVE CHANGED ENOUGH TO
BRING IN THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHEARLINE.

THE SHEARLINE ADVANCES UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK WHILE DISSIPATING. A SECOND FRONT MOVES OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY TO REACH ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THE SATURDAY
AFTER NEXT.

MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES FALL
UNSTEADILY UNTIL THEY FINALLY REACH JUST BELOW 1.2 INCHES ON
TUESDAY. SOME MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT THEN DRYING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE
NEXT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL A LITTLE OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN REBOUND THROUGH TUESDAY ALMOST TO LEVELS SEEN THURSDAY
BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED FOR TIST/TJSJ/TISX THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW. ALSO...OCCASIONAL -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK DURING THE
FCST PRD. THEREAFTER...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PR AFTER 19/16Z.
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJPS/TJMZ WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
TJPS BTWN 19/17-23Z. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM AND VARIABLE...BECOMING
FROM THE NE AT 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WITH REGARDS TO
WINDS AND SEAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMMENCE DURING THE
DAY TODAY ALONG WITH SEAS AND BY TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 8 FEET
IN THE NORTHERNMOST OUTER WATERS. MODELS SHOW NORTHEAST SWELL
INCREASING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY TO ALMOST 10 FEET. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT WINDS ARE BEING OVER-FORECAST BY THE MODELS AND WE
ARE HOLDING SEAS BACK TO 8 FEET FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS IS ALSO
WHAT IS BEING SEEN AT BUOYS TO THE NORTHWEST. SEAS ABATE ONLY A
LITTLE ON SUNDAY. THEN A NEW TRAIN OF NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVES ON
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 83 73 / 30 60 50 50
STT 84 76 84 77 / 40 70 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THRU AT LEAST
SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY AND ANOTHER WEAK
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. UPPER
TROF EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR AND OVER THE USVI. AS OF 2 PM
AST...MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OBSERVED WERE BETWEEN 1-1.25
INCHES OF RAIN AT COAMO...PATILLAS AND VIEQUES. HOWEVER THE
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 1-2 INCHES AT CAGUAS...SAN LORENZO AND
OVER SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PR. SIMILAR AMOUNTS WERE ESTIMATED
ACROSS THE USVI. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE USVI AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
ALSO...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PR THRU EARLY IN THE MORNING.

AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE ENE...EXPECT
PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS WITH BEST MOISTURE BETWEEN THE USVI/EASTERN PR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGE ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
USVI...LEEWARD AND TJPS THRU 22Z. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTH PR THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WINDS AT 10-15 KT...HOWEVER
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCREASING SEAS
BETWEEN 6-8 FEET. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO FILL IN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 74 84 / 60 50 50 60
STT 74 84 74 84 / 70 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RECENTLY PASSED TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE THAT FOLLOWS WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE IN A RIDGE WILL FORM
OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BUILD AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORCING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A VERY STRONG LOW PASSING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN GRADIENTS LATE IN THE
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RECENTLY PASSED
SHEARLINE HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING EL YUNQUE. MODELS ARE NOT
IN TOTAL AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE NAM5 HOWEVER SUGGESTS THAT BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY IN MUCH THE SAME
PATTERN AS SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE NAM BUT
TEMPERED THE POP FORECAST SOMEWHAT TO REFLECT THE DRIER AIR THAT
THE GFS WAS SHOWING. THIS AREA IS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT A SOLID CLOUD DECK IS BEHIND IT. THIS DECK SHOULD
THIN AS IT APPROACHES AND THE HEAVIEST CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE HEADED
FOR OUR NEIGHBOR TO THE WEST...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
FLOW ALSO SHIFTS TO THE EAST...EVEN THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
AND THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE BEST SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNINGS AND THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO FORM OVER THE WATERS
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES AND STREAMS OF MOISTURE
ARE DEPICTED ALMOST NON-STOP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT...IF THE MODEL
CAN BE TRUSTED...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOW FORECAST TO BE THE
LOWEST OF THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A STREAM OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE USVI...LEEWARD ISLANDS AND TJSJ DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO RICO. THEN...SHOWER SHRA/+SHRA WILL FORM OVER
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR AND OVER ST CROIX AFTER
20/17Z. E-NE WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS IN/NEAR
SHRA...INCREASING AT 10 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY AFTER 20/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY PEAKED AT OVER 11 FEET THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER STILL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT LOW BUT ARE POINTING
TO SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 FEET IN THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND INCREASING IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT ALSO. THIS
WILL BRING HIGH BREAKING WAVES TO THE NORTHERN COASTS AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 60 60 70 70
STT 84 74 84 78 / 50 40 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
GRADIENTS TIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF...MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WINDWARD AREAS...RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TIMES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
THEREFORE EXPECT QUICK MOVING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THIS WILL BRING HIGH
BREAKING WAVES TO THE NORTHERN COASTS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 87 / 60 70 70 40
STT 74 84 78 85 / 40 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SUN FEB 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN IN GENERALLY WEST OR
NORTHWEST FLOW. MID LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY EXCEPT FOR MONDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WHEN PATCHES OF MODERATE MOISTURE WILL
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. A WEAK TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND PATCHY
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABATED FROM THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. FINE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DISSIPATING NO MORE THAN 10 TO 15 MILES INLAND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY BUT DRIER AIR WILL
CAUSE THEM TO DIMINISH. SHOWERS MAY RE-INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT TRAVEL FARTHER ONSHORE TONIGHT THAN THEY DID
LAST NIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE CENTER OF PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY. MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE
BEING SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN TAPER OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEK BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST AND
TISX/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME. DURING THE AFTERNOON SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA TO AFFECT TJPS
ALSO. SHRA WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
15 KT INCREASING AFT 21/13Z AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOW FORECAST TO PEAK AT THE OUTER BUOY AROUND
21/08Z AND THIS WILL MEAN AN ARRIVAL OF THE BEST WAVES THIS
EVENING. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO WHERE WAVES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 13 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 14 FEET IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE LARGE
WAVES WILL ALSO COME THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MOST NORTH
AND EAST FACING BEACHES. MARINERS WILL ALSO FIND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES UP FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OUTER CARIBBEAN IS MAINLY DUE TO SEAS IN
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. HIGH SURF SHOULD ABATE BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN FORCE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEMS IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO SEND NORTH AND NORTHEAST SWELL
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 87 73 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 73 85 77 / 30 50 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST SUN FEB 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THEN...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS USVI AND PR LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THE TRADE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. OVERALL...
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CLUSTER OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AFFECTING THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR.
IN ADDITION...A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN IS
FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO NE PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...WIND WILL VEER FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BY MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HRS.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A
DRY AND SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY SHALLOW MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WINDS VEERING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TRADE WINDS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EAST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NW PR EACH AFTERNOON. IN
SUMMARY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEK AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME AFTERNOON SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA TO AFFECT TJPS ALSO. GUSTY WINDS IN SHRA
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KT INCREASING AFT 21/13Z AT
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS OF 6-8 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SEAS HAS PEAKED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY...BUT ARE FORECAST
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHEN SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS. MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2-5
FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 87 73 88 / 40 40 40 40
STT 73 85 77 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST MON FEB 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. GENERALLY...A TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING MOST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THE
HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF NORTH
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5
INCHES...ELSEWHERE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FELL. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRY
AIR MASS AT THESE LEVEL KEEPING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
SHALLOW DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRADE WINDS SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NW PR EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK AS THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WINDS VEERING FROM NNE TO ESE AROUND TROF...NOW PAST
TJSJ. TROF SHOULD BE BYD TJBQ BY 22/21Z. NUMR SHRA AHD OF TROF NOW
INLAND OVER WEST CENTRAL PR WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS
INLAND EAST AND WEST. VFR CONDS PREVAILING AT TAF SITES XCP FOR TJBQ
WITH OCNL CIGS AOB 030. CONDS IMPVG WITH TROF PSG. MOSTLY DRY ABV
FL100 XCP FOR SHRA TOPS. WINDS ALF NE 10 TO 15 KT BLO FL100...BCMG
SE. MAX WINDS WEST NR 85 KT AT FL410-450.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 8-10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE SAN JUAN BUOY INDICATED A NORTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND
9 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD BETWEEN 11 AND 13 SECONDS. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 12 AND
14 FEET. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE BEACHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA...AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. REFER TO THE MARINE PRODUCTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 75 / 50 20 30 30
STT 84 76 85 75 / 20 30 30 30

&&