Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
542 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Matthew is currently about 300 miles to
the SSE of the local islands. Matthew is forecast to continue
moving westward today with its center of circulation passing 250
miles or more to the south of the local islands. However, we
expect breezy conditions with showers and thunderstorms across the
local area today. Weather to improve late today and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have been
observed over the local waters through the overnight hours. Some
showers have affected the land areas but the amounts have been
modest since the showers are moving rather fast. It has been
breezy and we expect breezy conditions to continue today with
winds at 15-30 mph and higher gusts. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to gradually increase through the morning
hours and affecting most of the land areas by this afternoon. The
proximity of TS Matthew to the local islands means that the local
marine conditions will deteriorate significantly. We currently
have several advisories in effect such as Small Craft, High Risk
of Rip Currents and High Surf advisories.

Things are expected to improve weather wise this afternoon and
evening, and Friday is not expected to be as active as today. The
rest of the weekend and early next week is going to be highly
dependent on the track that TS Matthew takes. So there is
considerable uncertainty on the local weather for the upcoming
days. Having said that, there is some agreement in the forecast
models that we will be under a great deal of moisture early next
week under a southerly flow, which if it verifies, would cause a
great deal of shower and thunderstorm activity over the local
islands, so that is definitely something to monitor.


&&

.AVIATION...Brief MVFR or even IFR conds with mountain obscurations
will remain possible at all TAF sites as TS Matthew moves across the
Caribbean waters and south of the local islands. Wx conds will
slowly improve this afternoon across the Leeward terminals and
during the evening hours across the PR and USVI terminals. Sfc wnds
15 to 25 with ocnl gusts 30 to 40 kts with passing SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Very hazardous marine conditions are expected today as
TS Matthew passes to our south. Winds of up to 30 knots and seas
of 14 feet and occasionally higher are forecast across the local
waters, especially the offshore Caribbean waters, therefore there
is a Small Craft Advisory for all of our local waters. There is a
high risk of rip currents for just about all of the PR and USVI
coasts and there is also a High Surf Advisory for the beaches in
southern and eastern PR, Vieques, and Saint Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 77 / 60 50 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 60 50 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
242 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Newly formed hurricane Matthew will continue to move
across the Caribbean coastal waters through Friday morning
maintaining dangerous marine conditions across the local waters.
Strong surface high pressure will continue to dominates the local
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level high clouds prevailed across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today associated with newly
formed hurricane Matthew. Hurricane Matthew continues to move well
south of the area, with strongest convection remaining around 100
miles south of the area. From time to time, some rainbands
associated with the hurricane has been affecting our local waters.
Over land...partly cloudy skies with limited shower activity
prevailed today.

For the rest of this afternoon and tonight...only fast-moving
showers are expected from time to time, but overall local area
will remain under very dry air. In the long term...weather will be
highly dependent on the future track of Matthew. A more westward
track will maintain most of the trailing moisture west of the
area, while a more eastward track, closer to hispaniola will
result in deep tropical moisture affecting the local area from
Sunday through Tuesday. At this time...an increase in moisture is
expected beginning on Sunday night into Monday and continuing
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across most of the local
flying area tonight. However...brief showers will move across the
region tonight producing VCSH across some of the local taf sites.
Sfc wnds 15 to 25 knots with ocnl gusts 30 to 40 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Very hazardous marine conditions will continue this
afternoon as hurricane Matthew passes to our south. Winds of up
to 30 knots and seas of 14 feet and occasionally higher are
forecast across the local waters, especially the offshore
Caribbean waters, therefore there is a Small Craft Advisory for
all of our local waters. There is a high risk of rip currents for
just about all of the PR and USVI coasts and there is also a High
Surf Advisory for the beaches in southern and eastern PR, Vieques,
and Saint Croix. A coastal flood advisory has been issued due to
coastal flooding occurring along the south coast of Puerto Rico.
Refer to latest CFWSJU for latest information on all advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 50 40 20 30
STT 79 89 78 89 / 50 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Matthew will continue to move across the
Central Caribbean and away from the local islands today. Ridge
aloft will hold through the end of week with trofiness returning
to the forecast area Sun-Mon. Surface high north of the area and
Hurricane Matthew southwest of the forecast area will continue to
promote moderate to fresh easterly winds through Saturday. Surface
winds are expected to become southerly early next week as Matthew
moves northward and crosses into the southwest Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to variably cloudy skies prevailed across
the local islands during the overnight and early morning hours.
Passing showers were observed mainly over the offshore waters
with some of them affecting the northern and eastern coasts of
the islands. Minimum temperatures were in the mid 70s to around 80
degrees across lower elevations.

Under weak ridge aloft...moderate to fresh easterly winds and
precipitable water near normal values, a few showers embedded in
the trades will continue to affect the coastal areas in the
morning followed by locally induced showers and thunderstorms
across west PR. This weather pattern is expected through at least
Saturday. Surface winds are expected to become southerly early
next week as Matthew moves northward and crosses into the
southwest Atlantic.

Weather conditions across the forecast area are highly dependent
on Matthew trajectory. Based on the latest guidance as winds
shift southerly, deep tropical moisture will be advected across
the local islands. This moisture will then combine with trofiness
aloft from the east to result in a better chance for shower and
thunder late Sun-Tue. A weak ridge will build across the local
islands by midweek. However, locally induced afternoon showers
and thunderstorms still expected Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across much of the
terminals today. However, trade wind showers with tops around
FL250 with possible TSTM across the Atlantic waters could briefly
affect the leeward/USVI and east/northern PR terminals through the
morning hours. Then between 16z-22z, TSRA/SHRA developing along
the interior and western portions of PR will create tempo MVFR
conditions, impacting mainly TJMZ and the VCTY of JBQ/JPS/JSJ.
Low level east winds will continue at 15-25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to slowly improve
as Matthew moves across the central Caribbean and further away
from the local islands. Seas up to 12 feet across the offshore
Caribbean waters and subsiding with winds 20-25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 77 / 40 20 30 20
STT 90 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure will continue to dominates the local
region. Deep tropical moisture associated with the trailing moisture
of Major Hurricane Matthew will advect across the region from
Sunday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers affected the eastern half of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. Later in the
morning and in the afternoon...showers with isolated thunderstorms
developed across the central interior and western sections of
Puerto Rico. Local area will remain under the influences of a
surface high pressure system, which is expected to dominates the
local region through at least Sunday. As a result...trade winds
will bring passing showers across the local region from time to
time.

Major hurricane Matthew continues to move well southwest of the
local area. Matthew is expected to turn northwest toward the
Central and northwestern Caribbean. As Matthew moves
northwest...a moist southeast wind flow will establish across the
region Sunday night into Tuesday. Therefore...an increase in low
level moisture is expected, increasing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Trade wind showers will continue to briefly affect the
leeward/USVI and east/northern PR terminals this afternoon.
TSRA/SHRA will continue to develop along the interior and western
portions of PR to create tempo MVFR conditions, impacting mainly
TJMZ and the VCTY of TJBQ/TJPS and possible TJSJ. Low level east
winds will continue at 15-20 kt with higher gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 7 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. Local buoy are showing seas less than 6
feet in the near shore waters of southern Puerto Rico. Across the
offshore Atlantic waters and across the Anegada and Mona
passage...seas up to 7 feet are expected to continue through at
least late tonight. Therefore...Small Craft advisories continues
in effect for these waters. Refer to latest CWFSJU product for
latest information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 90 / 20 30 20 50
STT 79 90 79 87 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
546 AM AST SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure in the northern Atlantic will
keep an easterly wind flow through the weekend. However, the localwinds
will become more southerly as Hurricane Matthew moves north into
the Southwestern Atlantic by next week. Brief showers embedded in
the trades are expected in the morning and overnight hours, while
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
PR in the afternoon. The track of Hurricane Matthew will have an
impact on the local weather early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The local weather pattern today will be mainly
dominated by a surface high pressure that is keeping an easterly
trade wind flow across the area. There is enough moisture to cause
passing showers which are mainly affecting the local waters, USVI
and eastern PR this morning. Then in the afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western PR but with
less coverage than the past few days as slightly drier air is
moving in. This slightly drier air could be short lived since the
Hurricane Matthew, currently just over 400 miles SE of Kingston
Jamaica, is expected to move north, and with that bring deeper
moisture to the local area starting on Sunday. However, the latest
guidance is suggesting that the increase of moisture will be
limited because Matthew is expected to move a bit too far west to
keep bringing a steady stream of deep moisture as it moves north.
Having said that, a slight shift to the east of what the models
are suggesting means that the moisture influx could be much higher
and persistent, so there is definitely some uncertainty on the
forecast for early next week. Regardless though, the local winds
are expected to turn more southerly which will likely cause an
increase in the trumpeters across northern PR, especially in
those areas that do not observe much rainfall or cloud cover. As
of now, the day with the moist amount of rain appears to be on
Monday according to the GFS model. Some rain with a mix of sun and
clouds are expected for the rest of the workweek with the
southerly winds gradually becoming more easterly late in the
workweek.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across most of the terminals.
Trade wind showers with tops around FL200 will continue across the
local waters affecting at times with VCSH/-RA the leeward
islands,USVI and eastern PR terminals through the forecast period.
Between 01/16z-22z, TSRA/SHRA developing over the western interior
portions of PR will create tempo MVFR conditions, impacting mainly
the flying area of TJMZ/TJBQ. Low level E-ESE winds will continue
at 10-20 kt. Higher gusts due to sea breezes expected after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys are all reporting seas of 5 feet or less
while the offshore Atlantic buoys are reporting seas of under 7
feet. Coastal winds are expected to be at 20 knots or less and
seas are 5 feet or less nearshore and 6 feet or less across the
local offshore waters. Small craft should exercise caution.
Moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 79 88 79 / 30 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
127 PM AST SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure centered in the northern
Atlantic will maintain an easterly wind flow through the rest of
weekend across the region. The winds are expected to become more
southerly early in the week as Hurricane Matthew moves northward
over the Bahamas. The moisture advecting over Hurricane Matthew
will have an impact on the local weather early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated scattered to numerous trade
wind showers across the surrounding coastal waters, the USVI,
Vieques, Culebra as well as across most sections of Puerto Rico
this afternoon. Few thunderstorms were also developed across
western and interior sections of Puerto Rico by mid afternoon.
This activity was associated with the moisture left behind
Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew, currently about 365 miles SSW of Port Au Prince
Haiti, is expected to move north tonight and Sunday. As this
happens the local low level wind flow will become more from the
south in association with the outer circulation of Matthew. This
humid southerly wind flow will bring deep tropical moisture across
the forecast area starting on Sunday and continuing until the
middle of the week. A slight shift to the right of the projected
path of Matthew will bring more moisture influx across the region.
An increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected across
interior and northern sections of Puerto Rico early next week. As
of now, the days with the moist amount of moisture appears to be
Monday and Tuesday. The GFS model guidance suggests PWAT values
of around 2.10 inches on Monday increasing to around 2.25 inches
Monday afternoon, decreasing again to around 2.10 by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Trade wind showers with tops around FL200 will
continue across the local waters with VCSH/-RA across the leeward
islands, USVI and eastern PR terminals through this evening.
TSRA/SHRA will continue to affect the western interior portions
of PR with few tempo MVFR conditions mainly over TJMZ/TJBQ until
01/22Z. Low level winds will remain E-ESE at 10-15 kt overnight
increasing to 15 to 20 after 02/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots will continue
across most of the local waters tonight and Sunday. Small craft
should exercise caution. Moderate risk of rip currents will
continue for most of the local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 90 / 10 20 10 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
533 AM AST SUN OCT 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure north of the islands will relocates
over the Central/East Atlantic over the next few days as Major
Hurricane Matthew moves northward from the Central Caribbean into
the Western Atlantic. As a result, easterly winds is expected
today...veering to the south southeast early in the week as
Matthew moves across the Windward Passage and Bahamas. Southerly
flow will favor the advection of showers and thunderstorms over
the islands Monday and Tuesday. Moisture will likely decrease
across the local region by midweek when Matthew away from the
Greater Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Broad cyclonic circulation associated with Major
Hurricane Matthew is favoring the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the Caribbean Sea. Persistent shower activity
has been affecting the local Caribbean Waters and Mona Passage
since midnight. However...minimal shower activity has been
observed over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during
overnight hours. The rest of today...expect some showers will
reach the east coastal sections of the islands this morning...
following by a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms over
portions of the West and Northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon.

Tonight through Tuesday...southerly flow induced by Hurricane Matthew
will bring deep tropical moisture over the forecast area. This
flow will favor the advection of showers and thunderstorms from
the Caribbean Waters. Moisture associated with the tail of Matthew
will likely maintain moist and unstable conditions across the islands
through Tuesday.

Midweek through the end of the week...As Hurricane Matthew moves
northward over the Bahamas and the Western Atlantic...drier and
more stable air mass will return to the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across much of the
terminals. However, trade wind showers with max tops around FL200
will continue across the local waters affecting at times with VCSH/-
RA the leeward islands,USVI and eastern PR terminals through the
forecast period. Between 02/16z-22z, TSRA/SHRA developing over the
western interior portions of PR will create tempo MVFR conditions,
impacting mainly the flying area of TJMZ/TJBQ and VCTY of TJSJ.
SHRA/TSRA expected to increase across the Caribbean waters/Mona
Passage through the fcst period. Low level E-ESE winds 10-15
kt, with higher gusts aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots will continue
across most of the local waters today. Therefore...Small Craft
Operators should exercise caution. Moderate risk of rip currents
will continue for most of the local beaches.

Seas are forecast to increase somewhat over the Mona Passage and
the local Caribbean Waters on Monday when Matthew moves northward
over the Windward Passage. This may require Small Craft Advisories
for these marine zones early in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 77 / 20 10 50 20
STT 88 79 87 78 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
113 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over northwest Atlantic will drift
eastward across the Central Atlantic over the next few days as
Major Hurricane Matthew moves northward into the Western
Atlantic. As a result, easterly winds will become from the
southeast early in the week as Matthew moves across the Windward
Passage and Bahamas. Southerly flow will favor the advection of
showers and thunderstorms over the islands Monday and Tuesday.
Moisture will likely decrease across the local region by midweek
when Matthew moves further away from the Greater Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated a large area of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters this afternoon. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms
are still expected to develop across western and interior sections
of Puerto Rico late this afternoon associated with the lingering
moisture behind major Hurricane Matthew.

Major hurricane Matthew, currently about 350 miles SSW of Port Au
Prince Haiti, is expected to move mostly north tonight and Sunday.
As this happens the local low level wind flow will become more
from the south southeast in association with the broad cyclonic
circulation of Matthew. A humid southerly wind flow induced by
Matthew will bring abundant deep tropical moisture across the
forecast area starting on Monday and continuing until the middle
of the week. A slight shift more to the right of the projected
path of Matthew will bring more moisture influx across the local
islands Monday and Tuesday. Evaluated the possibility of
a Flash flood watch for all Puerto Rico as moisture associated
with Matthew will spread across the local area tonight and
continuing into Tuesday. However, latest model guidance suggests
a lull in activity overnight and early Monday with most of the
shower activity remaining west and southwest of the area.
Therefore...will hold off for now the Flash Flood watch and will
continue to monitor the situation to see how things unfold.

The GFS model guidance suggests PWAT values of around 2.00 inches
early Monday increasing to around 2.30 inches on Monday afternoon
and Monday night, decreasing to around 2.00 by Tuesday. This
values of PWAT will favor the advection of some showers and
thunderstorms from the Caribbean Waters across the region both
days. Conditions are expected to improve by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the
Leewards, USVI and Eastern PR flying area late this afternoon and
tonight producing vicinity trade wind showers. Until 02/23Z,
SHRA are still expected to develop over the western interior
portions of PR with MVFR conditions, mainly over TJMZ and TJBQ
and VCTY of TJSJ. SHRA/TSRA expected to increase across the
Caribbean waters/Mona Passage after 03/16Z. Low level E-ESE winds
will remain at 10-15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots will continue
across part of the local waters early tonight. Small Craft
Operators should exercise caution. However, seas are expected to
increase up to 7 feet early Monday morning across the Mona Passage
and therefore a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from late
tonight for this marine zone. Moderate risk of rip currents will
continue for most of the local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 90 / 20 60 30 50
STT 78 86 80 87 / 40 40 30 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Matthew over the central Caribbean basin
is forecast to move northward into the southwestern Atlantic
during the next few days. Surface high pressure will continue
across the central and eastern Atlantic through the forecast
period. This will cause winds to turn more southerly through at
least mid-week. A tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern
Caribbean on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A line of showers and thunderstorms moved from the
Caribbean waters into sections of southern Puerto Rico just before
sunrise. This line of showers with additional isolated
thunderstorms could continue to affect the interior portions of
Puerto Rico during the next hour or so. Cloudiness and periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected as Major Hurricane Matthew
continues to move north between Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
southwestern Atlantic through Wednesday.

Deep southerly wind flow should carry showers from the Mona
Passage and offshore Caribbean waters across the islands each day
with additional showers and thunderstorms developing over and to
the north of the central mountain ranges of Puerto Rico each
afternoon. However, cloud cover could delay or inhibit widespread
diurnally induced convection. Regardless, any thunderstorm that
develops has the potential to create brief gusty winds and urban
and small stream flooding through at least Tuesday. Later in the
week, a tropical wave is forecast to affect the local islands
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds with BKN clouds at BKN100 expected at the TAF
sites thru 03/15Z. Then...Areas of MVFR in SHRA/isold TSRA are
possible near TJMZ and TJBQ between 03/16-21Z. Southerly winds of 10-
20 kts will prevail below FL200.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory for seas up to 7 feet across the
Mona Passage, Caribbean and Atlantic offshore waters, otherwise
small craft should continue to exercise caution across the rest of
the waters due to seas up to 6 feet and southerly winds up to 20
knots. Moderate risk of rip currents continue for much of PR and
St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 80 / 50 20 40 0
STT 85 79 87 80 / 40 30 40 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
201 PM AST MON OCT 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A moist air mass will continue to prevail across
the forecast area during the next few days as Hurricane Matthew...
continues to promote moisture advection across the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands today.
Showers and thunderstorms were observed across the Caribbean waters
with some of them affecting the southern coast of Puerto Rico as
well as Saint Croix. Winds were south southeast at 15 mph or less
with coastal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Hurricane Matthew will continue to promote a south southeast wind
flow across the forecast area which is enhancing deep moisture
transport/convergence across the local island islands. This moist
air mass will continue to prevail through at least midweek.
Therefore expect cloudiness and periods of showers with thunderstorms
and some gusty winds possible over and south of the Cordillera
Central as well as the USVI this afternoon, tonight and Tuesday
mooring. Locally induced showers and thunderstorms north of the
Cordillera this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon is highly
dependent of cloud cover.

Latest guidance suggests precipitable values slightly above the
normal range Wed-Thu, this will result in the seasonable weather
pattern of passing showers across windward areas in the morning
hours followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall across W and NW PR. A tropical wave is then forecast to
enter the eastern Caribbean on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thick clouds causing CIGS at around FL060-080. This
is expected to continue with VCSH/VCTS possible across the local
terminals as the outer bands from Hurricane Matthew move over the
area. S-SE winds of 10-15KT with higher gusts are likely for the
rest of the afternoon, especially near the SHRA/TSRA...decreasing
wind speed overnight. Brief moments of SHRA/TSRA causing MVFR
conds possible at the terminals as well.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory for seas up to 7 feet across the
Mona Passage, Caribbean and Atlantic offshore waters, otherwise
small craft should continue to exercise caution across the rest
of the waters due to seas up to 6 feet and southerly winds up to
20 knots. Moderate risk of rip currents continue for much of PR
and St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 80 90 / 20 40 20 30
STT 79 87 80 88 / 30 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
617 AM AST TUE OCT 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Matthew moving over southwestern Haiti and
surface high pressure across the Atlantic will continue to promote
southerly winds Today, providing tropical moisture advection across
the forecast area. An elongated area of low pressure to the
north-northeast of the area is expected to have little impact on
the local weather conditions as it continues to move north into
the open Atlantic. Tutt is forecast to retrogress across the
Eastern Caribbean basin by Friday, while a tropical wave enters
the area at the same time.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms were observed around 2 am
across portions of southern Puerto Rico. The doppler radar
estimated around half an inch of rain with this activity.
Elsewhere across the forecast area cloudy skies and mostly light
stratiform rain was observed. Temperatures across coastal areas
were in the high 70s and the wind was mainly southerly at 5 to 10
mph over land areas.

For Today, cloudiness and periods of showers and thunderstorms
will continue as Hurricane Matthew continues its path northward
across Haiti and Cuba. Stratiform rain will continue for much of
the day with periods of showers and thunderstorms developing at
times across the Cordillera Central and drifting slowly northward
across the rest of the area. The potential for urban and small
stream flooding continues high Today.

On Wed-Thu, as cloud cover decreases over the area expect typical
induced afternoon convection over the interior and NW PR and a
return of light trade wind showers across the USVI and windward
areas through the overnight hours. On Friday, a tutt across the
Caribbean basin is expected to interact with a tropical wave
located now along 50 west to enhance showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area through early in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC at FL100 with -SHRA are expected today as outer
bands from Hurricane Matthew move over the flying area. Southerly
winds of 15-25 kt fm SFC to FL150 will likely push SHRA/TSRA from
the Caribbean Waters over portions of the islands at times. Brief
periods of MVFR conds and mountains obscurations are possible at
TJPS/TJMZ and TIST/TISX from time to time.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to gradually build from 6 to 8 feet
with occasional seas up to 11 feet across the Mona Passage and the
rest of the Caribbean waters through the overnight hours into
early Wednesday morning. There is a high risk of rip currents for
the west/southern beaches in PR, Vieques and St. Croix. There is
also a high surf advisory in effect for the southwestern coast of
Puerto Rico through this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 50 10 20 30
STT 87 78 88 80 / 50 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A moist air mass will continue to prevail across the
forecast area during the next few days under a southeasterly wind
flow. Next tropical wave expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands today.
Showers and thunderstorms were observed across the Caribbean waters
and Mona Passage with some showers and thunderstorms developing
over and northeast of the Cordillera Central. Winds were southeast
at 15 mph or less with coastal temperatures in the mid to upper
80s.

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and Hurricane
Matthew across the north central Caribbean will continue to
promote a southeast wind flow across the forecast area during the
next few days. This wind flow is enhancing deep moisture
transport/convergence across the local islands. Therefore still
expect cloudiness and periods of showers with thunderstorms and
some gusty winds over and north of the Cordillera Central and the
USVI this afternoon followed by a few passing showers across
windward areas overnight.

Although latest guidance suggests precipitable water decreasing
somewhat across the local islands on Wed, PW values will continue
to be slightly above normal. Therefore continue to expect passing
showers across windward areas in the morning and afternoon
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across W and NW PR
Wed-Thu.

A retrogressing TUTT will then move to the eastern Caribbean on
Thursday to Friday. At low levels this will coincide with tropical
wave entering the forecast area on Friday. Therefore the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Moisture under the canopy of Hurricane Matthew has been
slow to generate convection. A band of convergence, with +SHRA/+TSRA
however passes from just west of Fajardo to just east of saint Croix
and is moving slowly west with MVFR conds and mtn obscurations.
Expect slow development of SHRA/TSRA over interior and western PR
til 04/22z. VFR condtions are expected to continue in TIST and the
Leeward islands, but SHRA/TSRA north of Saint Croix and apchg from
SE will continue to keep areas of lwr CIG/VSBYS VCNTY. Area winds
alf Sly sfc thru FL 120 10 to 20 kt. Upper winds FL350-500 NW 30 kt
incrg to N at 50 kt by 05/18z.

&&

.MARINE...A swell generated by the wind field of Hurricane Matthew
is producing 8-10 feet breaking wave heights and rip currents
across the beaches of St Croix, West and South Puerto Rico. Seas 8
to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Marine condtions
will slowly improve Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 0 30 30 30
STT 78 88 80 85 / 20 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
554 AM AST WED OCT 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The high pressure ridge pattern extending across the
Northeastern Caribbean from the North Central and Eastern Atlantic
will continue to be disrupted, as powerful Hurricane Matthew moves
across the southwest Atlantic and Tropical storm Nicole continued
to slowly move northwest into the Western Atlantic. As a result, a
moderate south to southeast low level wind flow will be maintained
at least until early Thursday. Farther east, a tropical wave east
of the windward islands will continue westward. This wave is forecast
to enter the Eastern Caribbean late thursday or early Friday. In
the upper levels, High pressure ridge across the region will shift
westward through Thursday as a tutt low and associated trough will
enter and move across the Eastern Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...mid to upper levle cloud debris from Hurricane
Matthew will continue to spread northwards across the region
today through at least early Thursday. Recent model guidance as
well as previous TJSJ upper air sounding suggested a fairly moist
and unstable environemnt will prevail through today. Although cloud
cover may be a limiting factor in shower development during the
morning hours, do however expect sufficient instability aloft and
daytime heating to allow for late morning and afternoon convection
across portions of the islands, particularly the Northern and northwest
sections of Puerto Rico. Activity should diminish and taper off by
the early evening hours as a slot of somewhat drier air will filter
in across the region and mid to upper level cloudiness gradually
diminishes.

On Thursday expect passing early morning showers to affect the
east coastal sections of the islands. This will be followed by
isolated to scattered afternoon convection mainly over parts of
the central and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Late Thursday
through Friday, expect a slight increase in moisture once again
as a tropical wave will move across the Eastern Caribbean and
increase the chance for early morning and afternoon convection.

By the end of the work week and into the weekend, the prevailing
southeasterly wind flow is so far expected to mantain fairly a moist
environment across the region. this will allow for early morning passing
showers and isolated to scatterd afternoon convection each day.
However,widespread rainfall is not expected across the region at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of MVFR
conditions are possible at TJBQ or TJMZ after 05/17Z due to
afternoon convection. Winds will continue mainly from the E-SE at
around 10KT increasing once again after 05/13Z from the E-ESE at
around 10-15 KT with sea breeze variations developing.


&&

.MARINE...Seas and swell action from Hurricane Matthew have begun
to subside during the overnight hours. Small craft advisory will remain
in effect for the Mona passage and portions of the Carribbean
waters later this morning. Small craft operators should exercise
caution elsewhere, as hazardous conditions will persist during the
rest of the day. continue for most beaches of puerto rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

The high risk Of rip currents, and high surf advisory for the beaches
of southwest Puerto rico was cancelled. A moderate risk of rip currents
will however continue for most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin
Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 78 / 30 30 30 30
STT 88 80 85 79 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
210 PM AST WED OCT 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...As ridge aloft weakens, a trofiness pattern will
establish across the area and hold through at least Friday. An
upper level ridge will build back from the north the upcoming
weekend. The next tropical wave expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands
today. Showers and thunderstorms were observed across the
Caribbean waters with limited shower activity observed over land
areas so far. Winds were southeast at 15 mph or less with coastal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

The prevailing southeast wind flow will continue to enhance
moisture transport across the local islands. Therefore periods of
showers with isolated thunderstorms and some gusty winds still
possible over and north of the Cordillera Central as well as the
USVI this afternoon followed by passing showers across windward
areas tonight. Although latest guidance suggests a decreasing
trend in precipitable values Thursday-early Friday, PW values
will continue to be near to slightly above the normal range.
Therefore enough moisture combined with trofiness aloft will
result in a round of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall across W and NW PR Thu Afternoon. The chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week and early
the upcoming weekend as a tropical wave moves across the eastern
Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
forecast period. SCT-BKN layers between FL100-FL150 expected to
continue overnight. Light trade wind showers could briefly affect
the leeward/USVI terminals flying area during the overnight hours.
Afternoon shra/tsra expected 06/16z-22z impacting mainly the flying
area of JPS/JMZ/JBQ. Winds will continue mainly from the E-ESE at
around 8-15 KT with sea breeze variations developing after 06/14z.

&&

.MARINE....Small crafts should continue to exercise caution across
the Caribbean waters and Mona Passage due to seas up to 6 feet.
Southeast winds will continue at 10-15 knots. Latest coastal buoy
reading are indicating seas between 3-5 feet. However, a moderate
risk of rip currents continues for much of the beaches of PR and
St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 30 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST THU OCT 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tutt and associated mid level trough will continue to
move across the region today through Friday. The tutt axis was now
moving across the Virgin Islands placing the region on the
convergent side of the trough therefore limiting convective
development. Earlier Tjsj 06/00z upper air sounding suggests a
gradual decline in layered precipitable water across the region
during the past 24 hours with satellite imagery also showing a
break in cloud cover from western PR to the USVI. Surface high
pressure ridge extending across the region form the Central
Atlantic, and major Hurricane Matthew now moving thorough the
Bahamas will help maintain light to moderate easterly winds across
the region thorough Friday. The tropical wave with axis now near
58 W is expected to enter and move across the Eastern Caribbean
later tonight through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gradual break in clouds across the region and sufficient moisture
convergence across the region today will support afternoon and
early evening convection across parts of the islands. However
expect most of the activity to be focused mainly over parts of
the central and northwest interior sections of Puerto Rico. Low
level winds flow still east to southeast so activity should steer
towards the west northwest and affect the surrounding municipalities.
Upper level support should be limited at least until later in the
afternoon and evening when the trough should relocate just west of
the region. By then and through Friday expect more favorable conditions
for enhanced convection across the islands and coastal waters. Afternoon
high temperatures should once again reach the low 90s in some areas.


Late Thursday through Friday expect increasing low level convergence
across the region with the approach of the tropical wave. However
recent model guidance suggest best moisture pooling occurs after
passage of the wave when winds become more southeasterly. This along
with the proximity of the tutt west of the area will increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorm development and a much wetter
weather pattern at least through Saturday. On Sunday and into early
next week...expect available moisture across the region to combine
with increasing local and diurnal effects for late morning and afternoon
convection across parts of the islands particularly over the central
interior and west sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across
the local flying area through 06/16Z. SHRA/TSRA with mtn
obscurations expected thereafter near TJMZ and TJBQ where TEMPO MVFR
conds are possible until 06/22Z. SCT-BKN layers between FL100-FL150
expected to continue this morning. Light trade wind showers could
briefly affect TJMZ early this morning. Winds will continue mainly
from the E-ESE at around 10-15 KT with sea breeze variations
developing after 06/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions continue to subside as Hurricane
Matthew moves northwest and farther away from the regional waters.
No small craft advisories are expected today or during the next 7
days at this time. However Small Craft operators should exercise
caution mainly across the coastal waters of northern Puerto Rico
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 30 30 30 30
STT 88 80 87 79 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
206 PM AST THU OCT 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough is the dominante weather feature today. This
trofiness will interact with the available moisture to result in
deep afternoon convection confine across the interior and
northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico. Also, streamer like rain is
possible across the San Juan Metro Area, East Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands from time to time. Local stability will
slowly increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms into the
upcoming weekend as an induced low level easterly disturbance
moves across the eastern Caribbean and a moist east southeast
wind flow re-establishes across the forecast area. Bulk of
moisture associated with the easterly disturbance should remain
south of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Enough instability across the region will be enough to enhance the
formation of showers and thunderstorms across the islands today.
Deep convection should confine across the interior and west
sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon. In addition, East Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands could expect showers downstream
from El Yunque and the islands, respectively. Shower activity
should diminish around evening. Then, the windward section can
expect a few light passing showers from time to time overnight.

For Friday and into the weekend, expect more favorable conditions
for enhanced convection across the islands and coastal waters.
Afternoon high temperatures should once again reach the low 90s in
some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible till 06/22z in and around JMZ/JBQ in
TSRA/SHRA and across JSJ in SHRA. SE winds 15 knots or less,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions will continue to prevail across the
local waters with seas 3 to 5 feet and winds 15 knots or less.
Small craft operators should be cautious due to winds between 15
and 20 knots mainly across the Northern Coastal Waters of Puerto
Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 87 79 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST FRI OCT 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will continue to shift farther west
of the region today,while a high pressure ridge will sink southwards
and build across the region through Saturday. Surface high pressure
across the Central Atlantic, and Hurricane Nicole moving across
the Western Atlantic, will maintain light to moderate easterly winds
across the region. A tropical wave now crossing The eastern Caribbean
will bring an increase in low level moisture and instability to
the region today and into the upcoming weekend. An easterly
perturbationwill also quickly follow this wave with additional
moisture. Meanwhile, dangerous Hurricane Matthew continued moving
northwest and closer to the east coast of Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers dotted most of the
regional waters during the early morning hours accompanying the
Tropical wave now moving across the eastern Caribbean. For the
rest of the day, expect sufficient moisture convergence and
instability to allow for another round of afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms across portions of the islands. Although
widespread rainfall is not expected, do however expect locally
enhanced convection over portions of the north central interior
and west sections of Puerto Rico including around the San Juan
metro area. Shower activity should diminish by early evening
leaving partly cloudy skies over land areas.

Early morning passing showers can be expected on Saturday and Sunday
followed by locally and diurnally induced afternoon convection each
day, some of which will be locally enhanced. This will lead to periods
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and possibly minor urban and
small stream flooding. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the
high 80s to low 90s along the coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR early in the fcst period. Then a tropical wave
across the Leeward Island will pass mainly across the Caribbean Sea
thru the local flying area arnd 07/18z, moisture and brief MVFR
conds in SHRA/TSRA will increase thru 07/21z. Incrg moisture will
generate mtn obscurations and areas of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA in interior
and western PR and downstream from the Luquillo mtn range aft 07/16z.
Sfc winds generally E 8 to 12 kt bcmg ESE aft wave psg.


&&

.MARINE...Local buoys and recent model guidance continued to
suggest seas mainly between 2 to 5 feet. Coastal winds will be
mainly from the east at 10 to 15 knots with occasionally higher
gusts near the coastal shores.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 78 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 79 87 78 / 50 40 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
208 PM AST FRI OCT 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will interact with an approaching easterly
perturbation to result in showers and thunderstorms across the
local region. The heaviest activity will be confined in the
interior and west sections of PR. As the trough aloft moved
westward, an upper level ridge build over the islands. An increase
in the available moisture is expected to promote the enhancement
of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Model Guidance
are suggesting that Hurricane Nicole will remain well north of the
area across the Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands this
morning. However, shower began to develop early this morning into
the afternoon downstream from the U.S. Virgin Islands and along
and to the west of the Cordillera Central. The Doppler radar
detected the strongest activity across the western municipalities.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across these
sections, but most of the activity should diminish a little
after sunset.

For the weekend, near to above normal moisture will combine with
the local effect to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms
across mainland Puerto Rico and the surrounding waters of the U.S.
Virgin Islands each day. Trofiness will return to the forecast
area by Sunday, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR conds possible till 07/22z at JMZ/JBQ/JSJ in isolated
TSRA/SHRA. Easterly winds 15-20 knots, becoming light and variable
overnight. Aft 07/22z, passing showers expected in and around
ISX/JSJ/IST.

&&

.MARINE...
A slightly increase in seas expected across the Atlc
waters tonight where mariners can expect seas up to 6 feet.
Elsewhere, seas 3 to 5 feet expected. Easterly winds around 15
knots. A swell associated with Hurricane Nicole is possible to
reach the local waters by the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 40 40 30 50
STT 79 87 78 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave over Puerto Rico this morning will
continue to produce showers and a couple of thunderstorm across
the USVI and Eastern sections of Puerto Rico this morning. This
feature will combine with daytime heating and local effects to
induce the development of showers and thunderstorms along and
north of Cordillera Central this afternoon. An upper level trough
will drift over the region on Monday, maintaining a relatively wet
weather pattern across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated isolated to
scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms overnight and
early in the morning mainly across the coastal waters. Some of
these showers moved across eastern and southeastern sections of
Puerto Rico from time to time. This activity was associated with
the moisture of a tropical wave just across the region and will
continue to affect the eastern sections of Puerto Rico for the
rest of the morning hours.

This moisture is expected to combine with daytime heating and
local effects to produce a new round of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across central interior, western and
northern sections of Puerto Rico, as well as across the coastal
waters this afternoon. This will lead to periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall and possibly minor urban and small stream
flooding. A high pressure ridge will continue to sink southward
and build across the region today. This feature will slightly
inhibit the development of widespread thunderstorms across the
local islands today.

For late Sunday and Monday an upper level trough is expected to
drift across the northeast Caribbean from the north. This feature
is expected to maintain a relatively wet weather pattern across
the region for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs FL025...FL040 Passing showers will
continue across the local flying area as a tropical wave will move
West across the Eastern Caribbean. This may result in brief MVFR
conds at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well as TJSJ/TJNR. Aft
08/16z SHRA/TSRA expect to develop over and north of the Cordillera.
This will result in mountain obscurations and MVFR or even IFR conds
at JMZ/JBQ and JSJ. SFC wnd Lgt and vrbl overnight, becoming ESE at
10-15 knots aft 08/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Swell generating by Tropical Storm Nicole will continue
to move toward the local area...with seas between 5 and 7 feet at
the outer buoy 41043 through Sunday or Monday. In general, however
seas will remain below 6 feet in San Juan`s marine forecast area
until Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed by Monday or
Tuesday for northerly swell induced by TS Nicole.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 77 / 50 30 40 10
STT 88 80 87 82 / 60 40 40 30

[HurricaneFan]

Am I looking at it wrong or is the upper level trof in the forecast located directly above Nicole?
Also the forecast calls for wet weather in the NE Caribbean for several days,but according to the 06Z GFS it looks like only late Sunday,Monday and maybe Tuesday will be wet.