Caribbean - Central America Weather

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Macrocane
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10521 Postby Macrocane » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:44 pm

The temperatures in Central America on September 28
-Near normal lows in most of the region except for Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama that had warmer than normal lows.
-Belize, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama experienced warmer than normal highs, the rest of the countries had near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (64.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.2°C (75.6°F) Warmest since June 14
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.6°C (45.7°F) Warmest of the year so far
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.5°C (56.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F) Warmest since August 18
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 31.0°C (87.8°F) Warmest since June 30
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F) Warmest since Aug 18
Panama city, Panama 35.1°C (95.2°F) Warmest since August 6
Boquete, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10522 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:29 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE FA WILL ALLOW FOR A PERTURBED PRESSURE PATTERN
AND ALTERED WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
SURFACE WINDS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MORE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE PRETTY GOOD
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THEN...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...EXPECT AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WITH LOCALIZED...DIURNALLY AND
NOCTURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ AND TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 29/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...SOME ELECTRICAL CABLES WERE INADVERTENTLY CUT AT THE
LMM SJU INTL ARPT ASOS AND THE EQUIPMENT THERE IS MALFUNCTIONING.
NO RESTORATION TIME HAS BEEN PROVIDED. IN THE MEAN TIME...USERS
ARE NOT TO TRUST READINGS PROVIDED BY THE ASOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 79 90 / 10 20 0 20
STT 77 88 79 90 / 30 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10523 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:23 am

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DOPPLER RADAR DID NOT REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER DEVELOPED SOUTH OF PONCE
BUT DID NOT AFFECT ANY LAND MASS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OPHELIA. THE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AS OPHELIA MOVES NORTH...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON WEATHER ACTIVITY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL
RETURN TO THE LOCAL REGION LATER ON SUNDAY.

OPHELIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CAT 2...BUT THE LATEST
FORECAST TRAJECTORY MAINTAIN THIS SYSTEM FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. AT 5AM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 30/16Z. BETWEEN 30/16Z-30/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGHT AND
FUTURE MOVEMENT OF OPHELIA. IF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES SLOWER
AND BETTER ORGANIZE...THIS COULD GENERATE A FETCH THAT COULD
PRODUCE HIGHER SEAS. WENT CONSERVATIVE IN THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HURRICANE OPHELIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 91 79 / 60 0 20 20
STT 87 79 89 80 / 20 30 30 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10524 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2011 2:50 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE PICKED UP BY A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AS MAJOR HURRICANE OPHELIA SHIFTS NORTHWARD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TOMORROW AND SHIFT WEST OVER HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM PHILLIPE WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MAJOR HURRICANE OPHELIA IS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. DRIER AIR AND FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HOLD EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...AS TROPICAL STORM
PHILLIPE...EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH...MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY...REPEATING
THE SCENARIO OF OPHELIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TOPS OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
CAMUY AND SOUTHERN ARECIBO REACHED ALMOST 50 THOUSAND FEET THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM AST LEFT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AFTER A
LATE MORNING SHOWER OVER THE WEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO LEFT
PERHAPS AN INCH. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER
TONIGHT...BUT AT PRESENT WILL SHOW NO MORE THAN SCATTERED OVER
COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS APPEARS TO BE
PART OF HURRICANE OPHELIA AND IF SO MAY ALSO BE SHUNTED BY LAND
BREEZES AS A RESULT OF COOLING OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. MAIN
MOISTURE FROM OPHELIA APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
DRIER AIR WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY THAT SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO A LITTLE MORE.
NEVERTHELESS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW EACH
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL DURING THE DAYS WITH SOUTHERN
FLOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS FROM OPHELIA
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY BUT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SEEN SHOULD BE LIGHT.
ONCE OPHELIA MOVES OUT OF RANGE...WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN PATTERN WILL SET UP. THIS WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 01/16Z. BRIEF MVFR MAY BE SEEN
IN TRSA AFT 01/16Z AT TJSJ...TJBQ ALONG WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE INCREASED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT BUOY 41053
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO SWELL ARRIVING FROM
HURRICANE OPHELIA. AFTER DECREASING FROM A HIGH OF ALMOST 11 FEET
EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING...SEAS AT THE BUOY OUTSIDE OF OUR OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS...41043...HAVE STABILIZED NEAR 8 FEET. THIS MAY SEND SWELL
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET INTO LOCAL INNER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
FOR AMZ710 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN AMZ712-715. SEAS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY IN
THE ATLANTIC. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE DUE TO EASTERLY
FLOW AFTER SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 79 90 / 0 20 10 30
STT 78 88 79 90 / 30 30 20 20
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#10525 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:26 pm

Loop.
Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10526 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:15 pm

Here in San Juan,we had a pretty heavy thunderstorm that lasted for a half an hour with loud thunder and heavy rain. That was caused by the light winds that kick the sea breeze in a big way provoked by Ophelias huge circulation to our north.
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#10527 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:06 pm

WEATHER

Deshaies under water

franceantilles.fr29.09.2011

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 140538.php

Stormy degradation generated by one of the spiral arms of the hurricane "Ophélia" already caused significant accumulations of precipitation, including to Deshaies where the water has reached 80 cm in some places. Traffic is very difficult because of mud.

Strong rain which in some areas of Guadeloupe in the afternoon, caused flooding in the village of Deshaies, including in many businesses and homes. Traffic is, therefore, very complicated in this sector as it may become very quickly in the udder. Indeed, it is advised motorists to avoid the road of the udder. Roads of Guadeloupe teams perform recognition on site and closing movement should not delay.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10528 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 01, 2011 12:12 am

Hi! I have a couple of videos I want to share with you. I went to Sonsonate today (September 30) a city in the west part of El Salvador and heavy showers were registered in the afternoon, a friend of mine shot the videos when the rains diminished and we were returning to San Salvador, and as you can see there was a lot of muddy water flowing down the roads, fortunately it was not high but it tells it was a heavy rain (sorry if the quality is not that good):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsJNTj3v89A&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olzGTsbI5eU[/youtube]
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ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10529 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 01, 2011 5:15 am

For those who are interrested, here is a recap Thursday afternoon of Ophelia who have bring numerous damages in Guadeloupe especially at Deshaies. Hopefully no deathtoll to report, thanks!

DESHAIES UNDER WATER

France-Antilles Guadeloupe30.09.2011
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... #diaporama


Heavy rains and storms have affected, yesterday afternoon, the Leeward coast, causing flooding in the village of Deshaies.

In some businesses, the water is mounted up to 1 metre in height. (J. U.)

No one is expected. 15 H 30-16 h 30, water spouts are slaughtered on the coastal strip of the Leeward coast with very marked effects on the village of Deshaies.

"Everything happened very quickly, was barely had time to get to safety and the rain came all flood," says this trader from the town. It is mainly the northern part of the deshaiesienne metropolitan area which has been the most affected City Hall up to 400 metres downstream. Residence sailors were in the flood, and the municipal police, part of the mounted police station, post office and of course, all businesses and the coquettes small houses nearby.

Responding quickly to the foreseeable damage of the phenomenon, the MP-Mayor Jeanny Marc, for security reasons did keep the school children of the village who were about to go, the time that the line of stormy grain dissipates.

Last night, shortly before 7 p.m., the rain had stopped and already, it is activated to clean and put everything in place. But this rainy phenomenon, the Deshaisiens are not ready forget.

Water down the slope North of the town hall to flood the streets and shops. (J. U.)

In some businesses, the water is mounted up to 1 metre in height. (J. U.)

Each tries to comfort as it can. Dark Rain stopped, but we spoke with emotion of the phenomenon. (Dominique Chomereau-Lamotte)

Solidarity plays on merits in such a case. Must be cleaned quickly to resume business. (D.C.-L.)

In this small library-stationery of the village, the mud came foul ground. Water flooded the stocks. (D.C.-L.)


-I've lost everything

BETTY OPET, RIPARIAN "I cried".

It happened in a split second. All the furniture and appliance of my house were damaged. This is the first time I saw so much water and mud. I was really very scared for my life. I cried. Fortunately that neighbours rushed and have shown solidarity.

MINA DEBONNEAU, CONSERVATOR "it was impressive.

I have lost everything. There is more nothing. The water is mounted very quickly, more than a metre. It was impressive. All my products are on the ground now... The freezers are upside down. I am really shocked.


-The influence of Ophélia

Hurricane Ophélia is in part responsible for the wet episode yesterday, Deshaies and La Désirade. Weather France services indicated that one "of the spiral arms" of the phenomenon is the author of this rainy and stormy degradation. We note that significant accumulations of precipitation were observed on the massif of the Montsoufriere volcano, Deshaies region with 60 to 80 mm of water and La Désirade where 120 to 150 mm of water was found in the same period. I.e. between 3 p.m. and 4: 30 p.m. yesterday.


-Testimonials

CHARLISE root, DITE CHACHA: "Never given it,...". »

I have 90 years. Since the age of 7 years, I saw the cyclones and the bad weather, but I had never given it. I had never seen such a thing. I was surprised by the rapid rise of rain waters. It came to rescue me very quickly. The young "Nono" was very effective. I think that fortunately there were no strong swell. The sea remained calm. People were very solidarity, but I lost a bed new and mattresses.

ANNISE MARGOTONNE, hairdresser: "it happened so fast."

The water has invaded my show in less than two... I read until a client, when the water came suddenly. I tried to save what I could, including equipment and hair products, but it was. I had to leave the show to save my skin. Then the fire department arrived quickly. I have lost everything: drying helmets, oven, refrigerator and products in stock on a shelf that has been swept away by waters. My losses valued at approximately EUR 3 000.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10530 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2011 5:31 am

Good morning.Another afternoon with rain and thunder will affect parts of PR today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SAT OCT 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...OPHELIA IS LOCATED AT AROUND 610 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA WILL MAINTAIN
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT. AFTER 4 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND IT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH...
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWERS CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 01/16Z. BETWEEN 01/16Z-01/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AT THE SURFACE TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...THE REGIONAL THE LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND ON WAVES HEIGHTS AS OPHELIA MOVES NORTHWARD AND
AWAY FROM OUR REGIONAL WATERS. A LARGE SWELL EVENT COULD BE
AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEKEND AS A HEALTHY
FETCH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 79 / 20 10 30 0
STT 89 79 89 78 / 20 20 20 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10531 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2011 8:58 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 AM AST SAT OCT 1 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE THE AFTERNOON ROUND
OF SHOWERS BEGINS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND.
SHOWERS HAVE AVOIDED SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN FOR THE MOST PART
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL SURROUND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS ARE JUST WEST OF SAINT CROIX AS WELL.
SOUNDERS OVER SAN JUAN AND SAINT CROIX SHOW VERY GOOD MOISTURE
PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY 1.8 TO 2.1
INCHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS MOISTURE BAND OVER THE AREA AND EDGES
A LITTLE TO FAR AWAY TO ALLOW DRYING JUST YET. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS
A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6.8 AND GOOD HEATING IS OCCURRING AT
PRESENT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT SOUTH COAST FROM YAUCO TO
SALINAS. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS FOR MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO ADJUSTED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
TOWARD LOCAL READINGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE SURFACE SHOWED A
SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT UP THROUGH 15 THOUSAND FEET...SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH ONCE HAVING
FORMED.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10532 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2011 2:43 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SAT OCT 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND
STRENGTHEN WHEN A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
TOWARD IT TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A NARROW RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE THERE DISSIPATES
DURING THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WILL WEAKEN BUT JOIN THIS TROUGH BY WEEKS END.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MAJOR
HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH AND TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE WILL MOVE WEST TO A POSITION NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK TRADE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS PHILIPPE LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THAT BEGAN VIGOROUSLY OVER THE ISLAND DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE IN FORCE. NEVERTHELESS...WANING MOISTURE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING. MOISTURE AT SAINT CROIX IS FALLING AND BELOW 1.7 INCHES
ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDER THERE AND EXPECT SAN JUAN MOISTURE TO
FALL AS WELL...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OPHELIA IS
LEAVING THE SCENE AND SOUTH FLOW BEHIND HER WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC HIGH. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND WILL TAKE A POSITION NEAR WHERE OPHELIA WAS THIS
MORNING BY TUESDAY. BY THAT TIME TRADE WINDS SHOULD WANE AND THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AGAIN AND MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE ARE EVIDENT...ONE IS NARROW AND CENTERED NORTH-SOUTH
ALONG 60 WEST. IT IS TRAILING MAJOR HURRICANE OPHELIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE OTHER IS BROADER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE FROM A WIDE AREA OF THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN
THREE DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS SHOW A
PATCH OF DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME NO OTHER
FEATURES ARE MANIFESTING THEMSELVES IN THE MODELS SO NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE TEN DAY HORIZON FOR US.


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJSJ
AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 01/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BCMG SE AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEEK IN THE
ATLANTIC BUT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS THEN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...UNLESS PHILIPPE SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 89 / 20 30 0 10
STT 77 89 78 88 / 20 20 10 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10533 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2011 10:28 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
926 PM AST SAT OCT 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TUE WITH A CONVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPING THEREAFTER AS CNTRL ATLC TUTT RETROGRESSES
TOWARD THE AREA. S/W RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. TRADE
WINDS TO PREVAIL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION
OF OPHELIA FOR ABOUT A WEEK...TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AS OPHELIA MOVES FARTHER AWAY
INTO THE MID LATITUDES. AS A RESULT...XPC A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH CONVECTION SUN CONCENTRATING ACROSS WRN/NWRN
PR. ON MON...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RESULT IN A STRONG CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT LEADING TO A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. XPCT
VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY MON-TUE. THERE
IS A SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY MID WEEK AND SUBSIDENCE NOT AS
STRONG ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS
THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS LATE IN THE
WEEK WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. A TUTT INDUCED
SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GUYANAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE FCST AREA. IN SUMMARY...IT LOOKS
LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK IS ON TAP.

NEXT WEEKEND...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS AS A SERIES OF
S/W TROUGHS MOVE AROUND BASE OF DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE NW
ATLC AND RIDE OVR TOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN AND ALLOW THE EQUATORIAL
TROUGH/MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEXT SUN OCT 09. THIS LOOKS TO COINCIDE
WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG NEGATIVE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
(STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE) AND A STRONG UPWARD PHASE OF THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION WHICH HAS BEEN FCST BY THE GFS/GFES
FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS NOW.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10534 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:51 am

Good morning. The daily morning discussion that I always post didn't come because the NWS site was off-line. But I can tell you that weather today will be between rainy afternoon for parts of Puerto Rico like interior and Noerthern and good weather in other parts.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10535 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 02, 2011 1:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:Good morning. The daily morning discussion that I always post didn't come because the NWS site was off-line. But I can tell you that weather today will be between rainy afternoon for parts of Puerto Rico like interior and Noerthern and good weather in other parts.

Thanks for this info and to keep us informed Cycloneye :).
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#10536 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2011 3:04 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...FED BY A STRONG UPPER LOW MAKING ORBIT IN THE EAST AND
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MAKE PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MONDAY INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE
WEAKENS ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE ATLANTIC WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
CONTINUES WEST NORTHWEST AND EVEN AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY IT WILL BE OVER
600 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST AND HAVE A VERY LIMITED EFFECT ON THE
AREA. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER
CLOSE TO THE AREA MODERATING CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED
DOWNSTREAM FROM EL YUNQUE AND SPREAD MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN FROM CAROLINA TO CATANO. HEAVIEST RAIN CONFIRMED BY A RAIN
GAGE ON THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER WAS OVER 2.5 INCHES. THEN BY MID
AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED IN LAS MARIAS...ANASCO AND
MAYAGUEZ AND FROM SAN SEBASTIAN TO AGUADILLA. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE HAD SMALL HAIL. A BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE INTO THE TAIL OF HURRICANE OPHELIA
WAS MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AIR. NEVERTHELESS...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL...THOUGH MAINLY OVER PUERTO RICO. MODEST MOISTURE IN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWING DRIER AIR
IN THE AREA THAT SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PUNCTUATED BY LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 02/22Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR
TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS...RETURNING TO LOWER LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS AFTER
FRIDAY WILL DEPEND OF THE STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE NORTH
THAT WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND RETREATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 88 / 10 20 10 20
STT 77 88 78 88 / 10 20 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10537 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:14 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
925 PM AST SUN OCT 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...REGION TO LIE BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND TUTT LOW TO THE EAST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS
OVERHEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE WX PICTURE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SUBSIDENT PATTERN TO PREVAIL ALL WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER A
STRONG CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NW AND A TUTT LOW TO THE EAST. MON LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK AS PW...K INDICES AND H85 THETAE VALUES PLUMMET.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING DEVELOPS AT ALL. WHILE SUBSIDENT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ALL WEEK...THE STRONG HEATING IS
LIKELY TO OVERCOME ANY CAPPING SO XPCT AT LEAST ISOLD CVRG ACROSS
WRN PR OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH AS A STRONG UPWARD PHASE OF THE MJO AMPLIFIES
AND PROPAGATES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WRN
CARIB SEA OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS OVER TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT IN MIXED NE SWELLS FROM TS
PHILLIPE AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 88 / 0 0 20 10
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 0 20 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10538 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:26 am

Good morning. A rather good weather week is expected in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST MON OCT 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS WEEK. TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL DOMINATE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MORE DRY AND STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRY/STABLE AIR JUST UPSTREAM OF PUERTO RICO...
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER(PW) VALUES BELOW OF 1.5 INCHES. RECENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK THAT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...
THIS WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PUNCTUATED
BY LOCALIZED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...
THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERALL...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SWELLS
IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE AT 12-14 SEC ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. IN CONTRAST...SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 78 / 30 30 20 30
STT 88 78 88 78 / 30 20 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10539 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2011 1:14 pm

Since this thread is for the whole Caribbean basin,I am posting the discussion for the area that will be important as the models are hinting on development in the next week or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN VERY
CLOSE TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHERE TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 83W FROM 15N TO THE ISLE OF
YOUTH CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TWD ANIMATION. COMPUTER
MODEL HAS THIS MOISTURE DRIFTING WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N87W 17N88W. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR TO SEE THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE DOMINATE THE E
AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HIGHER NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED
WINDS OF 20-25 KT. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR JAMAICA. NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH CROSSES PANAMA TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR
11N76W.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10540 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:01 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON OCT 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL DOMINATE...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STREAMERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND OVER EL YUNQUE. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF
STREAMERS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE ON
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TUTT PATTERN...AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
IS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...ENHANCING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION... AND IN INTERACTION WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO FAVOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
ABOUT 03/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 KTS
OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SWELLS
IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE AT 12-14 SEC ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. IN CONTRAST...SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 88 / 30 20 30 30
STT 78 88 78 87 / 20 20 20 20
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