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Gustywind
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#12241 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 31, 2012 8:11 pm

WEATHER. End of the danger due to heavy rain

franceantilles.fr31.07.2012

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180392.php

The tropical wave N ° 18 clouds end up across our archipelago. A few flurries point still exist for this night, but they will quickly diminish to make way for a time dry.
A cloud band associated with the tropical wave No. 18 ends through our islands. A few occasional showers and may be a storm, still exist for this night. Showers will quickly diminish, replaced by a dry, foggy air.
Accumulations of water observed since 24 hours are of the order of 100 to 120 litres of water/m2 on the terrain, between 20 and 100 litres of water/m2 on the Basse-Terre, between 10 and 70 litres of water/m2 on Grande Terre. Good wind gusts were also identified during the episode, with arrowheads to 79 km/h at la Désirade, and 63 km/h at Le Raizet (Abymes).
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-Watching Invest 99L

#12242 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:52 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER PR WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRESS ON
FRI. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST99L EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THE PAST 24 HRS
HAS MOVED FAR AWAY NOW. SIG IMPROVEMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING THIS
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON 00Z JSJ RAOB. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN PR DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
CONVECTION CONCENTRATING ACROSS NW PR. THEN VERY DRY THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION.

CNTRL ATLC WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING
WITH A POSSIBLE CENTER NEAR 9.7N AND 43.0W. 01/00Z EARLY TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF PR SAT NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SMALL
CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS FOR OUR CARIB COASTAL WATERS. 18Z WW3
GUIDANCE BRINGS 6-8 FT SEAS ACROSS AMZ732. SO AFTER A BRIEF WET
SPELL THINGS LOOKING RATHER DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO SIG
RAINFALL EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVING WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BUT
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 6KFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE USVI AS WELL AS TKPK AND TNCM...WHILE
ACROSS PR OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TSRA IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR AFTER 01/18Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. SEAS BUILD 6-8 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES
INTO THE CARIB.


&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.56 INCHES WAS SET AT THE SAN JUAN
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 1.12 SET IN 1957.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 86 79 90 / 30 40 10 10
STT 77 82 80 82 / 50 50 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-Watching Invest 99L

#12243 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 5:56 am

Good morning. We continue to watch the progress of invest 99L.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING MAINLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND MOSTLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DICTATED
BY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IF IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOST LIKELY THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS FUTURE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY ARE HIGHLY
SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONALLY...IF IT PASSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS MORE OF AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...THE FA WOULD
HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY ITS ACTIVE
WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...THE MOST LIKELY LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH A
ROUGH TIME FRAME OF LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 01/17Z. SCATTERED SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 01/17Z-22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 40 10 10 10
STT 82 80 81 80 / 40 20 20 10
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#12244 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 6:06 am

Tropical Activity
Image
Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-Watching Invest 99L

#12245 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 6:46 am

Here is the discussion about 99L by Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-Watching Invest 99L

#12246 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 7:00 am

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#12247 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 7:07 am

For those who lived in the Windwards should keep an eye on especially for the weekend as 99L seems to organize...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW/WAVE IS ABOUT 870 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 TO 17 KT. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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#12248 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:19 pm

Not the best scenario when we have an approaching system organizing who could pose again troubles... :roll: Let's hope that this feature don't bring any damages in the buttflerly islands as Guadeloupe have big problems with the electricity :oops:

The tropical wave boombs and lead shot of 20,000 homes

Boris COLOMBET / Sylvère SELBONNE / David NIRIBAL France-Antilles Guadeloupe01.08.2012
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180504.php

IN CAPESTERRE-BELLE-EAU. A raging fire is raised around 19: 30, in the precincts of the processing station. (Sylvère Selbonne)

Lightning, intense on Capesterre-Belle-Eau, hit Monday night the transformation this commune EDF position. At the height of the crisis, 20,000 customers have been deprived of power. While the situation was gradually returning in order in continental Guadeloupe, Marie-Galantais continued to live, yesterday afternoon, in the critical moments.

Click this link to see the VIDEO of the fire in the EDF position and PHOTOS of the damage : "VIDEO." Lightning hits an EDF position: always 9OO homes private electricity " "

The danger is not necessarily where expected it... Still marked by the extensive flooding of the month of may, many of Guadeloupian feared the effects of rain on the pass, Monday night, a particularly active wave. It was nothing. This time, it is the thunderstorm activity that was problem.

Evidenced by the violent fire that erupted around 19: 30, in the grounds of the position of transformation of Capesterre-Belle-Eau. Lightning strikes, particularly active and intense, caused impacts that broke up the asphalt before fall on a line voltage.

"A first explosion occurred on the line voltage in the River, at the level of institutions Pommez." Just after, a second has been sounded at the plant level. "It was like a firework," provided a waterfront installed on the heights of the Peru islet. Between the two events, other witnesses speak of a "flash moving in the direction of the Central".

Although designed to withstand the overvoltages and therefore to storm activity, the site is, this time, wracked. About 63,000 present Volt breakers, everything suggests that they were overwhelmed by the power of lightning. Consequence: 20,000 homes on the communes of Petit-Bourg, Capesterre, guava and Trois-Rivières and on the island of Marie-Galante were instantly immersed in the dark.

"Post source of Capesterre has critical importance because it supports several other present distribution positions on the Basse-Terre." "It is also here that share the submarine cable feeding Marie-Galante", recognized without detour Patrick Pognon, responsible for electricity in EDF Guadeloupe archipelago.

THE BEST DESPITE A GRADIENT NETWORK

Throughout the night, EDF officers attempted to find solutions to rehydrate all of households impacted: "one of our priorities has been to isolate source of Capesterre from the rest of the network position, and then gradually rehydrate areas deprived of current with other present positions at Bay-Malhaut and river-effect Jarry.". Generators were also installed on the network and carried out repairs. "The first effects were soon to be felt: 1 100 customers always private electricity yesterday morning at 6: 30, the number was reduced to 900 late morning to reach 350 in the afternoon.

More problematic: the case of Marie-Galante where the generators of relief, specifically installed for this type of situation, never reached to start. Private power, la Grande Galette began also with mechanical effect, a be deprived of water during the day. But then again, the best would have started to emerge: "technicians were quickly dispatched on the spot and have managed to 1: 30 p.m., start groups." We have good hope, by the evening of Tuesday, rehydrate electricity 4 200 Galantais Marie affected and past clients private electricity in mainland Guadeloupe.

Despite the gradual return of the current, the situation would remain precarious. "We operate in degraded mode." We recommend that the population of Capesterre to limit its power consumption to not seek power systems and avoid new cuts. »


-THE FIGURE 350

This is the number of households that, yesterday evening at 4: 30 pm, were always private electricity sector of Capesterre-Belle-Eau. EDF however believed to be able to restore the current for each night. As Marie-Galante, who lived a still more delicate situation (read further), the emergency generators eventually could be started around 13: 30. "Thanks to them, the situation began to improve gradually." Here again, we are hopeful power recharging 100% of 4,200 homes marie-galantais private power since Monday evening. »


-Smoke toxic and risk of electrocution

"A fire in exceptional!" this is how lieutenant Lentilus, a s officer of the quartering of Caspesterre fire, summed up the intervention that has about 15 of his men and several emergency vehicles until almost midnight, Monday night. Beyond the difficulty inherent in this type of intervention since the the water use is proscribed in an electrical site, fire sodats had also to deal with a large release of toxic smoke, from the combustion of acid charged batteries.

To protect the population and avoid any intoxication, a security perimeter has been installed on several hundred metres, then only forty residents installed near the post of transformation were temporarily evacuated. All were finally able to return to their homes at the end of the intervention.


-THEY SAID

Nadine, resident on the heights of Capesterre, Ilet Peru: "I thought at the end of the world".

"What has happened Monday evening, was phenomenal. I thought at the end of the world. Only the last day had arrived. There were many thunderstorm and lightning in abundance. The sky was all lit white. And suddenly, between 19: 00 and 19: 30, I saw, home, a first explosion at the River, at the level of hardware: I do not know what the lightning hit but it was enough to put the wires to the ground. It was like Fireworks, with plenty of lights. Shortly after, a second explosion was heard. This time it was the EDF plant which was affected. There were plenty of smoke who came up to the House. Yet we live on the heights of the Peru islet. It was really frightening. My niece, who was in the House, began to scream and cry. We had the impression of being in a science fiction film. »

Laury Saint-Marc, this EDF on-call agent in the local of the position of processing at the time of the disaster: "I just had time to out me of the local."

"I was present in the premises when a flash from abroad stopped me." From a quick glance, I realized that a fire was spreading in Central. I had the chance to be all ready for the door to exit at this time because at the speed at which the fire spread, I have had that time to out me of the local and go to my car. »


-An extremely rare incident

What happened Monday night, Capesterre-Belle-Eau, continued to intrigue mobilized EDF technicians throughout the day yesterday on the ground. Starting with Patrick Pognon, responsible for electrical network: "It is difficult to say what exactly happened." Il seems lightning fallen several times in the sector and that it is this same lightning which was, apparently, eventually trigger a fire in the position of power of the source position. IL is important to clarify that our facilities are all equipped with protections intended, precisely, remove the sur-tensions. We will need to conduct extensive investigations and analyze this incident precisely to understand and determine what could have happened. »
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#12249 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:21 pm

Up to 70%

BNT20 KNHC 011734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#12250 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:24 pm

We must continue to monitor closely 99L as this feature could become TD in the next 12H-24H or less... Friend in the Windwards even the Leewards islands keep an eye on in case of...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N45W 13N47W...
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND/OR WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather-Watching Invest 99L

#12251 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:39 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AS TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SLOWLY DIGS
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
NOW LOCATED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...
LEAVING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL COMBINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RESULT IN A
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY
ON THURSDAY AND OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE
TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE DICTATED BY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF PR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THE MOST LIKELY LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...BREEZE CONDITIONS AND PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCTARRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 08/20Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 10 10 10 10
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 10 10
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ERNESTO - Preps/Obs Thread for Lesser Antilles, W Caribbean

#12252 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 01, 2012 3:52 pm

Started a preps/observations thread seeing how land with some members lies in the way. Starting with the Lesser Antilles.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#12253 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 3:58 pm

Tkanks to you, that's a great post :).
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Re: Caribbean -CA Weather=T Storm Watches for islands

#12254 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:18 pm

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

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CrazyC83
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Re:

#12255 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:37 pm

Gustywind wrote:Tkanks to you, that's a great post :).


Hope it isn't too serious there!
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#12256 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:41 pm

Yellow alert has been activated for Guadeloupe. I don't know if Guadeloupe is under a Yellow Alert Cyclone for the moment, but Martinica is officialy under an Yellow Alert Cyclone, that means that tropical cyclone ( TD, TS) could interrest this island.

Here is the forecast for Martinica given Meteo-France Martinica for Friday:
The weather is very cloudy covered with many stormy showers of good intensity. Thunderstorms are temporarily strong. The wind continues to grow in the morning and breath to 70 km/h on average in plain gusting to 90 km/h and 90 km/h on average with gusts at 120 km/h on the heights. The sea, the average trough exceed 3 m in the Atlantic and are close to 1 m 50 in the Caribbean.
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Re: Re:

#12257 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Tkanks to you, that's a great post :).


Hope it isn't too serious there!

We hope that not... but this afternoon Guadeloupe and Martinica are under an Yellow Alert Cyclone meaning that these islands could experience TS winds beginning Friday for Martinica and after for Guadeloupe. But given Martinica's Pro Mets of Meteo-France (from the latest weather forecast) : "Friday, "the weather is very cloudy covered with many stormy showers of good intensity. Thunderstorms are temporarily strong. The wind continues to grow in the morning and breath to 70 km/h on average in plain gusting to 90 km/h and 90 km/h on average with gusts at 120 km/h on the heights. The sea, the average trough exceed 3 m in the Atlantic and are close to 1 m 50 in the Caribbean".

Let's wait and see, i will keep your informed, if i have more :)
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#12258 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 01, 2012 5:21 pm

I'll be sure to keep you guys posted on any developments.
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Re:

#12259 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 01, 2012 5:23 pm

abajan wrote:I'll be sure to keep you guys posted on any developments.

:) Tkanks Abajan. The Carib Team is solid and has always shown a good link in these moments each year :D
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Re: Caribbean -CA Weather=T Storm Watch for islands

#12260 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 7:03 pm

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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