Caribbean - Central America Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18901 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:27 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
408 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will linger across the region through
Friday. Ridge aloft will erode over the weekend as a TUTT low will develop
and meander northeast of the region through early next week. Tropical
moisture is forecast to increase by Sunday with the arrival of a tropical
wave. A large area of Saharan dust is forecast to arrive across the
region by early next week. Broad surface high ridge will continue across
the west and central Atlantic through the upcoming weekend to promote
moderate east to southeast trade winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Saturday...A mid to upper
level ridge will prevail across the region through Friday. This
feature is expected to gradually erode beginning on Saturday, as
a mid to upper upper trough will develop and linger northeast of
the forecast area. Until then, the ridge aloft will support limited
moisture advection through Friday with recent model guidance
continuing to suggest precipitable water values below the normal
range. At lower levels, the broad high pressure ridge spread across
the Atlantic will persist through the forecast period resulting in
moderate east to southeast winds.

For the rest of the afternoon, diurnally induced showers will continue
to affect portions of the interior and southwest sections of Puerto
Rico. Expect this activity to diminish just around sunset leaving
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. The remainder of the islands
should continue to experience mostly fair weather skies with only
a few quick passing showers.

Lesser trade wind moisture transport and shower activity is expected
on Friday, as the ridge aloft and trade wind inversion will limit
convection across the region. However, pockets of lingering
moisturealong with local and diurnal effect will lead to
afternoon showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, mainly
over west and southwest Puerto Rico. Mostly fair and stable
weather conditions is so far expected elsewhere. On Saturday...a
weak surge of moisture in the trade winds will bring early morning
passing showers across the coastal waters and portions of the
islands. This will be followed by diurnally induced afternoon
showers, and possible isolated thunderstorms mainly over the west
sections of Puerto Rico.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
TUTT low northeast of the region will create a trof pattern across
the northeastern Caribbean and over the islands through early next
week with the upper trough to retrogress across the local islands
by Thursday and Friday. A tropical wave is forecast to reach the
eastern caribbean and forecast area late Sunday or early Monday.
This will bring an increase in tropical moisture to the region. Upper
level support from the lingering TUTT/trof will further enhance convective
development especially across the mountain ranges and western sections
of PR. Another extensive area of Saharan dust is also forecast to reach
and spread across the region by early next week following the tropical
wave. This will result on a drier airmass and hazy skies. However,diurnally
induced afternoon convection will remain possible each day. Another
tropical wave is forecast to reach the region by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals throught
the forecast period. VCSH possible as SHRA stream off the islands
this afternoon and on ISOLD tradewind showers overnight. Winds will
remain from the ENE at around 15 KT with sea breeze variations
through 23/00Z, becoming lighter overnight but increasing once again
to around 15KT with occasional gusts after 23/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution due to seas occasionally
of up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots. Moderate risk of rip currents
across most of the local beaches in PR and the USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 89 78 88 / 30 30 50 50

&&
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18902 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:13 am

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trade wind showers across windward areas during the
morning hours, followed by some shower and thunder development
across west sections of Puerto Rico are expected through the
weekend. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase
across the local isles on Monday as a tropical wave moves across
the eastern Caribbean. Locally induced afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tue followed by limited shower/thunder
activity on Wed. Another tropical wave will move across the
eastern Caribbean on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Ridge pattern will continue to dominate over the next few days.
Mid-upper level ridge over Florida and Bahamas is keeping the
atmosphere fairly stable across the Northeast Caribbean. The dry
and subsidence air aloft will inhibit the development of
thunderstorms across the local area today. However...low level
moisture will combine with local effects to produce a round of
showers over interior and west portions of Puerto Rico this
afternoon. Brisk easterly winds will continue to push trade wind
showers over the east side of the islands at times...especially
at night and early in the morning.

Patches of low level moisture will advect over the area on Saturday...
keeping the scattered showers in the forecast. However...light to
moderate convection will then cluster over the Northwest PR as
winds veer to the southeast on Saturday. For Sunday...conditions
will remain fairly dry and stable ahead of the next tropical wave
that will encompass the region between Sunday night and Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

A sharp increase in shower and thunder activity is expected across
the forecast area on Monday as a tropical wave moves across the
eastern Caribbean. This feature is expected to interact with a mid
to upper level trough northeast of the forecast area to result in
enhanced/organized convection across the local isles throughout
the day. Although moisture is expected to decrease as soon as
Tuesday, lingering moisture will interact once again with the
aforementioned trough to result in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon. A fair
weather pattern is then expected on Wednesday associated with
subsidence ahead of the next tropical wave which is expected to
reach the area on Thursday. Plenty of moisture will persist across
the forecast area through at least the upcoming weekend to assure
passing showers across windward areas in the morning hours
followed by locally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms
across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites. SHRA will develop
near TJMZ between 18Z-21Z. East winds of 15-20 kts will prevail
below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds 15-20 knots are expected to
prevail across the local waters during the next few days. The
next tropical wave passage is expected on Monday, increasing
showers and thunderstorms across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 40 40 30
STT 90 78 89 79 / 30 40 40 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18903 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:35 pm

SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level high pressure ridge will hold across
the region though the weekend. Surface High pressure will remain anchored
across the west and central Atlantic through the weekend to maintain
moderate east to southeast trade winds. However, The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will increase across the region late Sunday and Monday
as a tropical wave is forecast to enter and move across the eastern
Caribbean.

SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Sunday...

Ridge pattern aloft will dominate the local weather conditions over
the next few days to maintain overall stable conditions across the
region. Limited moisture availability and subsidence aloft will inhibit
significant development of showers and thunderstorms across the islands
through at least Sunday. However...there will be sufficient moisture
convergence and diurnal effects to allow for afternoon convection
today and over the weekend. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible mainly over parts of the interior and west
sections of Puerto Rico, as well as in and around parts of the San
Juan metro area, where streamer-like showers will be likely. The
remainder of the islands should experience mostly sunny skies with
only a few afternoon showers mainly on the downwind side of the
islands.

The prevailing easterly winds will continue to transport patches
of low level moisture across the region and bring a few showers
to the windward side of the islands...especially overnight and
during the early morning hours. Winds are expected to become more
southeasterly by Saturday, when afternoon showers should be
focused over northwest PR. For Sunday...conditions should be
somewhat drier ahead of the tropical wave expected on Monday, but
will not rule out the chance of afternoon showers.

LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

Increasing moisture with showers and thunderstorm activity is expected
on Monday, as a tropical wave will enter and move across the eastern
Caribbean. This feature is expected to interact with a mid to upper
level trough/Tutt which will relocate just northeast of the
islands. As a result expect periods of enhanced convection across
portions of the islands and coastal waters through Monday. This
will be followed by a gradual decrease in shower activity on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Another tropical wave is forecast to reach
the forecast area on Thursday. This feature will again increase
local moisture convergence which should then persist across the
forecast area through Saturday. Good moisture convergence and the
proximity of a Tutt Low will therefore maintain a moist and
unstable weather pattern during the latter part of next week
through Saturday. Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor and
see how this pattern unfolds.

AVIATION...VFR conds entire fcst prd. However, VCSH expected
across the local terminals at times durg the rest of the afternoon
and overnight. Some SHRA vcty of TJMZ/TJSJ and TJNR with brief
MVFR in SHRA psbl til 23/22Z...bcmg VFR across entire flying area.
Wnds fm E-NE at 10-15KT with occasional gusts...bcmg mostly LGT/VRB
aft 23z, then increasing once again 10-15 kts aft 24/14Z. No sig
operational wx impacts attm...except for the diurnally induced
aftn convection mainly ovr central and W PR.

MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore
Atlantic,Caribbean waters and local passages due to winds up to 20
knots. The rest of the local waters can expect winds up to 15 knots
and seas up to 5 feet. There is a moderate risk of rip currents.
The next tropical wave is expected affect the regional waters
late Sunday through Monday. This will increase the chance for
showers and thunderstorms with areas of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across portions of the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 88 / 40 40 30 30
STT 78 89 79 90 / 40 40 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18904 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:44 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trade wind showers across windward areas during the
morning hours, followed by afternoon shower and thunder development
particularly across west sections of Puerto Rico are expected
through the weekend. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase across the local isles late Sunday/early Monday as a
tropical wave moves across the eastern Caribbean. A more seasonal
weather pattern is expected once again Tue and Wed with locally
induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms across west sections
of Puerto Rico. Hazy skies are also possible. A wave passage is
expected late the next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Passing showers moved across the local region overnight. Some
showers affected the southeast section of Puerto Rico with the
rest of the area only receiving light showers. A surface high
pressure will continue to dominates the local region through the
weekend. However, a TUTT will establish across the northeast
Caribbean through Monday. As a result, an increase in low level
moisture is expected beginning today and continuing through
Monday. In addition, a Tropical Wave is expected to affect the
local region Sunday night into Monday. As a result, an increase in
cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms are expected across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands mainly Monday, when the
most active weather is expected to occur.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

As the tropical wave moves away from the local isles late Monday
and into Tuesday, low level moisture is expected to decrease
across the eastern Caribbean. However, afternoon showers with a
few thunderstorms are still expected across west Puerto Rico
Tuesday and Wednesday due to local effects and diurnal heating.
Hazy skies are also possible during those days. Plenty of moisture
will persist across the forecast area Thursday through at least
early the upcoming weekend as another easterly disturbance moves
across the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
TAF sites through at least 24/18Z. Periods of MVFR conditions with
mountain obscurations can be expected across TJMZ and TJBQ from
24/16Z through 24/22Z in SHRA/TSRA. Low level winds will be mainly
east at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Small boat operators should exercise caution across the
offshore Atlantic waters as well as the offshore Caribbean waters
due to winds up to 20 knots. The rest of the local waters can expect
winds up to 15 knots and seas up to 5 feet. There is a moderate
risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 50 20 20 40
STT 90 79 90 79 / 50 20 20 50
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18905 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:08 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
510 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2017


.SYNOPSIS...Trade wind showers across windward areas during the
morning hours, followed by a few afternoon showers across west
sections of Puerto Rico are expected today. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will increase across the local isles late
tonight and into early Monday as a tropical wave moves across the
eastern Caribbean. A drier and dusty air mass is expected Tue-Wed
with afternoon convection still possible. Another wave passage is
expected late during the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

A surface high pressure will continue to dominate the local
region through the weekend. Under this pattern...trade wind
showers will reach the local islands at times. A tropical wave is
forecast to affect the local region between Sunday night into
Monday morning. As a result, an increase in cloudiness with
showers and thunderstorms are expected across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. This wave will move quickly and is expected
to exit the local area by Monday afternoon. After the passage of
this wave, a very dry airmass will encompass the region with a
dense area of Saharan dust affecting the local area. Hazy
conditions and limited shower activity activity is expected by
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

A drier and dusty air mass is expected to prevail across the
local islands Wednesday through early Thursday with limited
shower and thunder development across west sections of Puerto
Rico in the afternoon. Elsewhere, fair weather with hazy skies
will prevail. Moisture is expected to increase across the forecast
area Thursday morning as an easterly disturbance reaches the
forecast area. In fact, latest guidance suggested plenty of
moisture to persist through at least the weekend. This will assure
at least passing showers with isolated thunderstorms across
windward areas as well as locally induced showers and thunderstorms
across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through
25/16Z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected across TJMZ
and TJBQ from 25/16z through 25/22Z. Low level winds will be mainly
east southeast at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected to prevail today
across the local waters. However, winds are expected to slightly
increase tonight into Monday as a tropical wave moves across the
eastern Caribbean.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 20 50 50 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18906 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:32 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
433 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An overall dry and stable air mass prevailed across
much of the region today with little or no shower activity observed
across the region. The exception was over the west interior of Puerto
Rico where showers and an isolated thunderstorms developed and produced
brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. This activity however
was of short duration. A tropical wave continued to cross the eastern
Caribbean with associated moisture spreading westward along the leading
edge now just south of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...rest of today through Tuesday...

Moisture associated with the tropical wave will continue to spread
west and north across the region overnight through early Monday
as this wave will quickly move westward and exit the region by
Monday afternoon. This moisture advection should favor the development
of additional showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean Waters
and portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern PR. In the wake
of the tropical wave, a drier air mass associated with an extensive
area of Saharan dust will spread over the region by Monday afternoon
and continue through Tuesday. This drier airmass is then expected
to encompass the region and limit shower activity.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

Overall dry and somewhat hazy conditions are expected to prevail across
the islands at least through Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm
development limited to mainly across the west sections of Puerto Rico
during the afternoons. Elsewhere, mostly fair weather skies and somewhat
hazy conditions should prevail.

Moisture is expected to quickly increase across the forecast area once
again on Thursday and through the remainder of next week as another
easterly disturbance will arrive and spread across the region area.
Recent model guidance all continue to suggest a fairly moist and unstable
environment will persist across the region at least into the weekend.
Therefore the potential will remain high for shower and thunderstorm
development across the regional waters and local islands at least during
the latter part of next week. Passing late evening and early morning
showers should affect the windward areas, followed by locally and diurnally
induced convection across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico
during the afternoon. Some of this activity will also be enhanced due
to the proximity of a developing Tutt low Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across most of the TAF sites
expect TJBQ and TJMZ where MVFR are possible in SHRA/TSRA thru 22Z.
SHRA/TSRA associated with a tropical wave will move into the flying
area this evening. Most of the TSRA activity will remain over the
Caribbean Waters...however brief SHRA may affect the Leeward Islands
and USVI at times. VFR conds will return by 26/18Z. Low level winds
will be mainly east southeast at 10 to 15 kts.


&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect overall seas of 3-5 ft, and prevailing
easterly winds of 15-20 knots across most of the coastal waters and
local passages overnight through Monday. This will create choppy
seas. A tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean overnight
through Monday will also increase the chance for isolated thunderstorms
mainly across the Caribbean waters. This will also create hazardous
sea conditions mainly across the offshore coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 40 40 0 30
STT 79 89 79 90 / 50 50 10 30

&&
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18907 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:18 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
414 AM AST Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave located over the Mona Passage will
continue to move west and away from the local area through mid
morning. A high pressure will quickly build behind this tropical
wave bringing a drier and more stable air mass across the region.
This feature will prevail over the local area through at least
Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms affected Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands overnight. An area of showers and thunderstorms moved across
the eastern third of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands around
10 pm, with rainfall accumulation up to one inch in localized areas.
This area moved rapidly westward and by midnight, most of the
islands were rain free. Early this morning, a line of moderate to
heavy showers affected the eastern section of Puerto Rico. This
activity is associated with a fast moving tropical wave, which will
continue to produce isolated to scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms across the region through mid morning. By this
afternoon, the wave is expected to exit the local area. However,
lingering moisture associated with the wave will combine with
daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across the western interior
and northwest sections of Puerto Rico.

For tonight into Tuesday, A very dry airmass with Saharan dust will
encompass the region. As a result, hazy conditions are expected with
limited shower activity. For Wednesday, this weather pattern will
continue across the local islands.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Tuesday. Overall dry and somewhat
hazy conditions are expected to prevail across the islands at
least through Thursday, with shower and thunderstorm development
limited to mainly across the west sections of Puerto Rico during
the afternoons hours. Elsewhere, mostly fair weather skies and
somewhat hazy conditions should prevail.

An area of increasing moisture associated to a low level
disturbance is expected to reach our local forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore expect isolated to locally scattered showers
affecting the local islands and eastern portions of Puerto Rico
during the overnight and morning hours and then showers and
thunderstorms development mainly across the western portions of
Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Some of this activity
will also be enhanced due to the proximity of a developing Tutt
low Thursday through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through
26/16Z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected across TJMZ
and TJBQ from 26/16z through 26/22Z in SHRA/TSRA. Hazy skies are
expected across most TAF sites this afternoon but visibilities will
remain P6SM. Low level winds will be mainly east southeast at 10 to
15 kts.


&&

.MARINE...Increasing seas and choppy seas have developed across
the local waters during the overnight hours. This is due to the
passing of a tropical wave through the overnight hours. This
feature is now located over the Mona Passage. Small craft
operators should exercise caution due to winds and choppy seas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 78 / 40 10 20 20
STT 89 79 90 78 / 40 20 20 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18908 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:38 pm

issued 451 PM AST Mon Jun 26 2017/

SYNOPSIS...Overall dry and stable air mass prevailed across the
region today, as the tropical wave that affected the forecast area
overnight and early this morning, quickly exited the region and
entered the Central Caribbean during the afternoon. A Saharan air
layer with extensive area of suspended Saharan dust particulates
quickly followed and will linger across the region through at least
Tuesday creating somewhat hazy conditions over the land areas.

SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Wednesday...

Diurnally induced shower activity will diminish by sunset leaving
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. For the overnight hours and
on Tuesday, A overall dry and stable airmass with Saharan dust
will linger across the region. As a result, mostly fair weather
skies but somewhat hazy conditions, can be expected with limited
shower activity. Isolated to Scattered showers should be focused
mainly over the west interior sections of Puerto Rico. Similar
conditions expected for Wednesday, however a quick surge of
moisture in the easterly trade winds will bring early morning
showers mainly to the windward side of the islands. This will be
followed by locally induced afternoon showers mainly over the west
and southwest sections of PR as winds are to become more east
northeast.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

Next tropical wave/easterly disturbance is still forecast to enter
and move across the eastern Caribbean Thursday through Friday where
it is then expected to merge with a broad surface trough forecast to
develop and spread across the central and eastern Caribbean. This overall
pattern should increase low level moisture and layered
precipitable water content across the region during the latter
part of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Recent model
guidance continued to suggest increasing Pwat values to near two
inches as moisture is expected to converge and pool across the
east and northeast Caribbean. In addition the proximity of the
upper level Tutt should also bring favorable conditions aloft to
allow for more frequent early morning showers and afternoon
convection across the islands and coastal waters through at least
Saturday. A gradual decrease in moisture and improving conditions
aloft is so far forecast for Sunday and into the early part of the
following week.

AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites durg
prd. Brief MVFR conds psbl ovr W PR and vcty TJMZ and TJBQ til from
26/22Z in SHRA/ isold TSRA. Haze ALQDS across local flying area due
to suspended Saharan dust spread across the region thru Tuesday.
However vsby P6SM expected durg prd at all terminals. Low level winds
fm E-SE 15-20 kts blo FL200. Except for local sea breeze variations...Sfc
wnd E-SE around 15 kts with ocnl higher gusts. No sig operational
wx impacts attm.

MARINE... Mariners can expect seas of 3-5 ft and winds of 10-20 kts
across most waters. Locally fresh winds may create choppy seas along
the coastal waters north and south Puerto Rico between 15Z- 21Z
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 30 30
STT 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18909 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:54 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 AM AST Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Saharan air layer with extensive area of suspended
Saharan dust particulates will linger across the region through
at least Wednesday creating somewhat hazy conditions over the
land areas. A tropical wave will move across the region Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...A surface high pressure
across the central Atlantic and an upper low to the north
northeast of the local islands will dominate the weather pattern
today and Wednesday. A relatively dry airmass with a decent
concentration of Saharan Dust is expected today across the local
area, causing hazy skies and mainly fair weather for most of the
local area, especially in the morning hours. For the afternoon,
the upper trough to the north of the local islands may cause some
instability across the local area, which could cause showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the western sections of PR when
combined with the sea breeze convergence, diurnal heating, and
limited but available moisture. High resolution guidance insists
in afternoon showers and thunderstorms across western PR, although
some guidance suggests the activity across western PR and others
on SW-PR. Bottom line is that the highest chance of rain and
thunder will be in areas of sea breeze convergence across western
into southwestern PR.

Wednesday looks similar to today but the shower activity in the
afternoon should be a bit further north, for western and NW-PR. Then
on Thursday, a tropical wave is expected to move in with rather deep
moisture. This is expected to cause an increase in the shower and
thunderstorm activity coverage across the local forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...Lingering moisture
associated with the tropical wave affecting us on Thursday will
maintain high chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
region Friday into Saturday. After the passage of the wave, a much
drier air, with some Saharan dust will encompass the region from
the east. Overall, seasonable weather conditions are expected in
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through
the next 24 hours across the local terminals, except maybe TJMZ
between 27/17Z and 27/21Z, where SHRA/TSRA could develop nearby and
cause TEMPO MVFR Conds. Otherwise fair wx is expected with light
VCSH across the area. Hazy skies are expected across the local area
but visibilities will remain P6SM. SFC winds will be mainly from the
east at 10 to 15KT with sea breeze variations developing by
27/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected. Seas up to 5
feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected. Moderate risk of rip
current is expected in some beaches of northwestern Puerto Rico
and the south coast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 10
STT 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 30 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18910 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:49 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
421 PM AST Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge will remain the dominant feature across
the northeastern Caribbean through at least Wednesday. This will therfore
maintain a fairly strong cap inversion and as a result limit moisture
advection and convective activity across the forecast area. In addition
the extensive Saharan air layer continued across the region with high
amounts of suspended dust particulates spread across the region. This
lead to mostly fair weather but hazy conditions across most of the
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Local and diurnal effects lead to the formation of a few showers mainly
along the southwest and west interior sections of Puerto Rico, as well
as on the west end and downwind of the some of the of the islands. This
activity should quickly diminish around sunset leaving mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies overnight.

Similar conditions expected for Wednesday, but expect passing early
morning showers of short duration over the coastal waters and mainly
on the windward side of the islands. This will be followed by diurnally
induced showers over portions of the interior and west sections of
Puerto Rico. By Thursday, the mid to upper level ridge should slightly
erode overhead leading to a weakening of the cap inversion. A tropical
wave will enter and move across the the eastern Caribbean. This overall
pattern will result in an increase in layered moisture and low level
convergence across the forecast area. Therefore the expected surge
of tropical moisture along with good ventilation aloft will enhance
shower and thunderstorm development across the islands and coastal
waters through Thursday. Minor urban and small stream flooding will
therefore be likely in some areas.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

Friday through at least Saturday, moisture trailing the wave in
the prevailing east to southeast wind flow should maintain high
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorm activity across the
region each day. Some of the activity may be briefly enhanced especially
during the afternoon hours, and once again lead to minor urban and
small stream flooding in isolated areas. By Sunday and into early
next week expect a return of more seasonal weather pattern with
passing trade winds showers followed by diurnally induced afternoon
convection mainly over the west sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites except TJMZ where
brief MVFR conds are possible thru 21Z with SHRA/ISOLD TSRA.
Suspended saharan dust particles will continue to create hazy skies
across the flying area but visibilities are expected to remain P6SM.
Easterly winds of 15-20 kts will prevail below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Typical marine conditions will prevail through at least
midweek. Mariners can expect seas of 3-5 ft and winds of 10-20 kts
across most waters. Locally fresh winds may along the coastal waters
north and south Puerto Rico may create create choppy seas through
21Z each day. A tropical wave forecast to move across the region
on Thursday should bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms
as well as winds and seas particularly across the local passages
and Caribbean waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 30 30 10 30
STT 80 90 80 89 / 30 30 30 40
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18911 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:19 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
501 AM AST Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave will move across the area Thursday and
Friday increasing the shower and thunderstorm activity across the
area. A drier air mass will encompass the region behind the wave
during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...The upper low to the north
northeast of the local area will remain over the Central Atlantic
for the next few days while a weaker upper low develops just north
of the local islands late Wednesday into Thursday. There is also
a strong SFC high across the North Central Atlantic which will
also prevail for the next few days. Saharan dust is present and
will affect the local area today so there will be some haze.
However, just like it was the case yesterday, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across western PR.
Thursday and Friday are expected to be more active as a tropical
wave approaches the local area late on Thursday, increasing the
available moisture significantly and causing much more coverage of
showers and thunderstorms when combined with the upper low just
north of the local islands late on Thursday into Friday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...Saturday and Sunday, a
dry airmass will dominates the region before a tropical wave
affect the local area Monday. Another dry airmass is forecast by
computer models to encompass the region from the east by mid next
week, with patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade
winds affecting the region throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected for the next 24 hours across the
local terminals. VCSH is expected early in the morning for TIST,
TISX, and TJSJ. Afternoon convection is expected mainly across the
western sections of PR, which could affect TJMZ and cause TEMPO MVFR
conds after 28/18Z. Saharan dust is still present, causing haze but
visibility will still be P6SM. Winds from the east at 5-10KT
expected early this morning, increasing to about 15KT with
occasional gusts after 28/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the coastal waters. Small craft should exercise caution
across the Atlantic and Caribbean nearshore waters due to winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 77 / 30 10 40 50
STT 90 80 88 79 / 30 30 40 50
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18912 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:30 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
321 PM AST Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trough/low over the central Atlantic extending
southwest to just north of PR/USVI drifting slowly east. Tropical
Wave over the extreme eastern Caribbean moving west at 15 to 20
mph.



&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night...Upper low mentioned
above will remain in place to the northeast of the Caribbean
through at least Friday. Tropical wave over extreme eastern
Caribbean will move west and begin to impact the U.S. Virgin
Islands Late tonight or early Thursday with showers and
thunderstorms spreading westward through Puerto Rico Thursday and
Thursday night. Weak trough aloft will provide good upper level
dynamics that will likely enhance shower/thunderstorms activity
associated with the tropical wave. To that effect decided to
increase probability of precipitation for both Thursday and
Thursday night. Models indicate that moisture associated with this
wave will linger across the local area through Friday night.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...A drier airmass is
expected to move in as the wave departs the local area. This will
dominates the weather conditions across USVI and PR through at
least Sunday. Another tropical wave, currently across the central
tropical Atlantic, is expected to affect the local area Monday.
Another dry airmass is expected to move in behind this wave, with
yet another tropical wave affecting the region Wednesday through
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected for the next 24 hours across the
local terminals. VCSH is expected early in the morning for TIST,
TISX, and TJSJ. Afternoon convection is expected mainly across the
western sections of PR, which could affect TJMZ and cause TEMPO MVFR
conds after 28/18Z. Saharan dust is still present, causing haze but
visibility will still be P6SM. Winds from the east at 5-10KT
expected early this morning, increasing to about 15KT with
occasional gusts after 28/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the coastal waters. Small craft should exercise caution
across the Atlantic and Caribbean nearshore waters due to winds.
Mariners should always keep in mind that winds and seas are likely
to be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 77 89 / 10 50 60 60
STT 80 88 79 88 / 30 60 60 60
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18913 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:42 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An active tropical wave will move across the area
today bringing with it scattered to numerous showers with
thunderstorms. A very dry airmass will encompass the region
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...The tropical wave that
is moving in will bring a good amount of moisture to the local
area. This wave will also bring showers and thunderstorms to the
local islands today, lingering possibly until Friday. Although the
shower and thunderstorm activity expected today is not expected
to be constant, periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
expected across many sectors of the local islands. A weak upper
low to the northwest of PR may help in the development of
thunderstorms today, especially if the cloudiness is slow to reach
PR this morning. As of this writing, a line of showers is already
affecting Saint Croix and additional lines of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move into the USVI this morning. As
these bands move through the local area in the morning, the
diurnal heating will help cause more instability over PR as the
day progresses, this means that more persistent showers and
thunderstorms are possible over PR today, especially across
western PR where the heating, moisture and local effects will
combine and cause convection over those areas. However, shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible across most of PR. Urban and
small stream flooding is expected across many areas in the local
islands, river flooding will not be ruled out in Puerto Rico
today.

This deep moisture associated with the tropical wave has
precipitable water values of over 2 inches, and is expected to
linger through Friday. This means that showers associated to this
wave could affect the local islands overnight tonight into Friday as
well, especially for eastern PR and the USVI, then across W-NW PR on
Friday afternoon once again due to the combination of moisture and
local effects. If the rainfall today does in fact have a significant
hydrologic impact across the local islands, the rainfall on Friday
could cause some flooding due to potentially saturated soils.
Weather to improve on Saturday as the wave moves away and the
moisture decreases for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...We will see the passage of
tropical waves every three to fours days in the long term. Dry air
will continue over the region Sunday. Another tropical wave is
expected to pass mainly south of the region Monday. It will be
follow by another area of drier air which is forecast to encompass
the region Tuesday. Another Wave is forecast by computer models to
affect the area by Wednesday and Thursday
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18914 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:25 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
354 PM AST Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave across the Mona passage will continue
to move westward tonight and Friday, bringing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the surrounding waters and part
of the local islands tonight and Friday. A relatively dry airmass
will encompass the region during the weekend limiting the showers
and thunderstorms activity over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...
A tropical wave with its axis over the Mona Passage will continue
to move westward tonight and Friday. As bands of moisture
associated with the wave move through the local area this
afternoon, diurnal heating will help in the development of
instability over western and interior PR. The wave will continue
to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
local islands and surrounding showers until at least Friday.
Although the shower and thunderstorm activity is not expected to
be constant, few periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
possible across some sectors of the local islands tonight.
However, shower and thunderstorm activity is possible across other
sections of PR. Urban and small stream flooding is possible
across some areas of the local islands. River flooding will not be
ruled out in Puerto Rico through Friday night. On Friday
afternoon the combination of moisture and local effects will
promote a new round of showers and thunderstorms but this time
mostly over western and interior Puerto Rico. A relatively dry air
mass is expected to encompass the region Saturday and Sunday.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
We will see the passage of tropical waves every three to fours
days in the long term. Dry air will continue over the region
Sunday. Another tropical wave is expected to pass mainly south of
the region Monday. It will be follow by another area of drier air
which is forecast to encompass the region Tuesday. Another Wave is
forecast by computer models to affect the area by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Periods of MVFR or even IFR conds will remain possible
at all TAF sites through the forecast period as a tropical wave and
associated SHRA/TSRA move across the area. ESE winds at 15 knots but
higher in and around SHRA/TSRA expected. Wx conds will slowly
improve across the Leeward as well as USVI terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
across the local waters. A tropical wave will continue to produce
choppy seas and an increase in winds across the region tonight.
Small Craft should exercise caution across most waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 91 / 60 60 40 40
STT 79 88 79 90 / 60 60 30 40
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18915 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:30 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST Fri Jun 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave to continue moving across the local area
today, causing above normal moisture to linger and causing showers
and thunderstorms over the local area. Drier air to move in for
the weekend before another tropical wave approaches the local area
on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday...
A tropical wave with axis move crossing the Mona Passage will
continue to move westward while trailing low to mid level moisture
across the region during the rest of today. Upper level trough
will linger just west and north of the region to maintain a
dominant southwesterly wind flow and good ventilation aloft. This
pattern will allow occasional periods of high level clouds to
stream across the region. The combination of moisture associated
with the tropical wave and instability aloft will provide
sufficient support for continued intervals of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across portions of the coastal waters the rest of
the morning. This will be followed by isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorm development across portions of
the islands during the res of the day. Most of the afternoon
convection should however be focused over the interior and
northern half of Puerto Rico as winds are expected to become more
east southeast. Urban and small stream flooding as well as minor
flooding along rivers in these areas will therefore also be
possible today. A gradual drying trend is still expected Saturday
through Sunday but lingering moisture along with local and diurnal
effect will still support afternoon convection mainly over parts
of the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Mainly isolated
afternoon showers expected elsewhere and mostly on the west end
and downwind of the other islands.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
A tropical wave is expected to approach the local islands on
Monday but at this time the long range models indicate that the
bulk of the moisture will be just to the south of the local
islands, even though there will be an increase in moisture, the
deeper moisture will stay to our south. At the same time, there
will be a weak high pressure in the upper levels, which may limit
convection over the local area. Then on Tuesday, a patch of drier
air moves in just ahead of another tropical wave on Wednesday into
early Thursday. This tropical wave may have a bit more of upper
level support for thunderstorms over the area because there is an
upper low forecast to be just north of the local islands, so if
the long range models were to verify, we could expect some shower
and thunderstorm activity in the middle of next week. From that
point on there is too much uncertainty to go into too much detail
but yet another tropical wave could be making its way into the
local area on Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR at all terminals durg prd. Tropical wave moving
across the region during early part of prd with multiple SCT-BKN cld
lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL100...BKN-OVC nr FL250. Few embedded SHRA/
Isold TSRA en route btw islands and ovr coastal waters til 30/14z.
E-NE winds at 15-20 knots blo FL200. Sfc wnds LGT/VRB bcmg fm E 10-
15 kts aft 30/14Z...but higher in and around SHRA/TSRA. Mtn top
obscr brief MVFR psbl ovr E interior of PR til 30/12z in -SHRA/low
CIG nr FL025. SHRA/Isold TSRA PSBL ovr ctrl interioR and W PR btw
30/17Z-30/22z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas generally of 3 to 5 feet are expected today with
winds mainly 10-15 Knots. However, the Mona Passage may observe
winds up to 20 Knots so small craft operators are urged to
exercise caution. The tropical wave may produce showers and
thunderstorms over the local waters today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 40 30 30 30
STT 87 79 91 80 / 40 30 40 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18916 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:35 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
352 PM AST Fri Jun 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave just south of Hispaniola will continue
to move westward away from the region tonight and Friday. Abundant
moisture will remain across the region tonight but will decrease
during the weekend as a drier air mass moves across the northeast
Caribbean. Another tropical wave is expected to approach the
local area on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
A tropical wave with axis now across Hispaniola will continue to
move westward away from the local islands. Lingering moisture
associated with the departing wave and some instability aloft will
provide sufficient support to produce intervals of showers and
isolated thunderstorms across portions of the coastal waters as
well as across interior and northern sections of Puerto Rico
during the rest of this afternoon and early this evening. This
will be followed by isolated to scattered passing showers tonight
over the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern sections of Puerto Rico as
well as across the surrounding waters. A gradual drying trend is
still expected Saturday through Sunday but lingering moisture
along with local and diurnal effect will still support afternoon
convection mainly over parts of the interior and west sections of
Puerto Rico. Mainly isolated afternoon showers expected elsewhere
and mostly on the west end and downwind of the other islands.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
A tropical wave is expected to approach the local islands on
Monday but at this time models guidance suggests that the bulk of
the moisture will pass mostly south of the local islands. However,
the moisture associated with the northern part of the wave will
induce the development of showers and possible thunderstorms over
the region especially Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, a patch of
drier air will encompass the region just ahead of another tropical
wave expected to reach the region Wednesday and Thursday. This
tropical wave may have a bit more of upper level support for
thunderstorms over the area because there is an upper low forecast
to be just northeast of the local islands. GFS model guidance
suggests that another tropical wave with an associated surface low
will approach the northeast Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.
However, there is too much uncertainty in this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area overnight with passing showers across the Leewards and U.S.
Virgin Islands terminals. East southeast wind will decrease to
around 10 knots overnight increasing to 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts after 01/14Z. SHRA and possible isolated TSRA expected over
central interioR and western PR between 01/17Z-01/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas generally of 3 to 5 feet are expected tonight
with winds mainly 10-15 Knots. However, the Mona Passage may
observe winds up to 20 Knots so small craft operators are urged to
exercise caution. The tropical wave may produce showers and
thunderstorms over the local waters this evening but the wave will
move away from the region overnight and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 91 80 90 / 30 40 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18917 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:05 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
404 AM AST Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern
Atlantic will promote easterly winds for the next several days.
Tropical wave expected to pass south of the local islands early on
Monday, then another tropical wave expected for Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday...
Few passing showers will continue across the coastal waters
during the morning hours, with a few brushing mainly the east
coastal sections of the islands from time to time. A somewhat
drier trend is still expected today through Sunday, however
lingering moisture along with local and diurnal effects should
still support some afternoon convection mainly over parts of the
central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Only isolated
afternoon showers expected in and around the rest of the islands
including the U.S. Virgin Island. Mostly sunny skies should
however prevail through Sunday. On Monday a tropical wave is
forecast to enter and move across the eastern Caribbean. Recent
model guidance continued to suggest that the bulk of the moisture
will pass mostly south of the local islands. However, some
moisture along the northern Periphery of the wave as well as
trailing the wave will make its way across the region and will
support the development of showers and possible thunderstorms over
the coastal waters and portions of the islnds especially during
the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
A tropical wave is expected to move through the local islands on
Tuesday and Wednesday, causing an increase in overall moisture.
However, at this time it looks like it will lack upper level
support. Even though there could be an upper low to the north of
the local area, the positioning of the upper low is such that we
would be on the subsident side of the upper low. For that reason
at this time it appears that moisture and shower activity could
increase on Tuesday and Wednesday but sustained thunderstorm
development is not anticipated at this time.

Patches of moisture are expected for Thursday and Friday which
would combine with the local effects to develop locally induced
showers and thunderstorms. Then in the really long term, the
models keep insisting on a strong wave to bring deep moisture to
the local area on Saturday and Sunday. This is really far into the
forecast period and should be taken as a grain of salt but the
GFS model insists that a strong tropical wave will approach the
local area, bringing once again an increase in shower and
thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR at all terminals durg prd. However VCSH and Sct-Bkn
cld lyrs nr FL022...FL040 psbl at USVI terminals as well as TJSJ and
TJNR and en route btw islands til 01/14Z. SHRA/ isold TSRA psbl aft
01/17Z across central and western PR and vcty TJBQ and TJMZ til
01/22Z. Winds LGT/VRB increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kts
and sea breeze variations along coastal areas aft 01/14z.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore
Atlantic waters due to winds up to 20 knots. The rest of the
local waters will observe winds mainly between 10-15 knots and
seas 3-5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 78 / 30 20 20 30
STT 90 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 40
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18918 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:52 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
355 PM AST Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern
Atlantic will promote easterly winds for the next several days.
Tropical wave expected to pass south of the local islands early on
Monday, then another tropical wave expected for Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...
A drier trend is still expected across the northeast Caribbean
through at least Sunday morning. Therefore for tonight only few
passing showers are expected mostly across the surrounding coastal
waters as well over eastern sections of Puerto Rico. Lingering
moisture along with local and diurnal effects and the nearness of
a tropical wave south of the region will support some afternoon
convection mainly over parts of the central interior and west
sections of Puerto Rico Sunday Afternoon. Mostly sunny skies with
only isolated shower activity is expected in and around the rest
of the islands including the U.S. Virgin Island on Sunday morning.

A tropical wave, near the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, is
forecast to enter and move across the eastern Caribbean on Sunday.
Recent model guidance continued to suggest that the bulk of the
moisture associated with the wave will pass mostly south of the
local islands late Sunday and Monday. However, the moisture along
the northern Periphery of the wave will support the development
of showers and possible thunderstorms mostly over the Caribbean
coastal waters and portions of the local islands especially Monday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
Another tropical wave is expected to move through the local
islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, causing an increase in overall
moisture across the region. By that time, an upper level trough is
expected to develop to the northeast of the region. However, the
local islands will remain in the subsident side of the upper
trough and therefore it looks like that the tropical wave will
lack a favorable upper level support. For that reason at this
time it appears that moisture and shower activity could increase
on Tuesday and Wednesday but sustained thunderstorm development is
not anticipated at this time.

A relatively dry air mass is expected to encompass the region
Thursday and Friday. However, patches of moisture embedded in the
trades which would combine with the local effects to induce the
development of showers and thunderstorms mostly across western and
interior Puerto Rico as well as across the surrounding waters
especially during the afternoons. Models guidance suggests that a
strong tropical wave will approach to the northeast Caribbean by
the upcoming weekend, bringing once again an increase in shower
and thunderstorm potential over the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites except at JMZ where
brief MVFR conds are possible this afternoon in SHRA/TSRA. Easterly
winds 10-15 knots and some sea breeze variations to continue,
becoming light and variable overnight. Although hazy skies are
expected to prevail, visibilities will remain P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore
Atlantic waters due to winds up to 20 knots. The rest of the
local waters will observe winds mainly between 10-15 knots and
seas 3-5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 40
STT 80 90 79 88 / 20 20 40 40
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18919 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:10 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Sun Jul 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure will remain across the
central Atlantic for the next several days, keeping the local
winds mainly from the east. There is a tropical wave that will
pass through our south today into Monday, then another tropical
wave is expected to to reach our local area on Tuesday into
Wednesday, this one causing an increase in available moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Mostly sunny and fair weather skies expected today, as overall dry
and stable conditions will prevail across the region. Some diurnally
induced afternoon convection will remain possible mainly over the
west interior sections of Puerto Rico. The shower activity over
these areas should however be of short duration with no significant
rainfall accumulations expected at this time. Elsewhere and for the
rest of the islands, mostly sunny skies with little or no showers
are expected. Fairly dry conditions is also expected to continue
along the south coastal plains of PR today.

Later tonight through Monday...a tropical wave will enter and move
across the eastern Caribbean. Moisture along the northern periphery
and trailing wave this is expected to then affect the forecast area
through early Tuesday as the low level winds become more
southeasterly. Therefore early morning passing showers will be
likely over the coastal waters and along parts of the east coastal
sections of the islands. Available moisture along with local and
diurnal effects will support afternoon convection each day. Some of
the shower activity may be locally heavy at times mainly over the
west interior sections of Puerto Rico. A few streamer like afternoon
showers will also remain possible in and around El Yunque rainforest
and the San Juan metro area, as well as on the west-end and downwind
of the remainder of the islands. Afternoon shower activity should
quickly diminish just around sunset each day. Daytime high
temperatures will be seasonably normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...
Lingering moisture from a tropical wave is expected on Wednesday,
but a weak high pressure aloft will not provide great support for
thunderstorm development. Therefore the showers and thunderstorms
to develop on Wednesday afternoon will probably be mostly
influenced by local effects in PR, with a few isolated passing
showers over the local waters and USVI. Thereafter things dry out
a bit with near or below normal moisture on Thursday which will
limit shower development. A patch of moisture is expected on
Friday which could once again cause additional showers and
thunderstorms over PR once it combines with the local effects and
isolated to scattered showers over the waters and USVI. The
forecast for this weekend is largely dependent on a tropical wave
that is currently located about 550 miles to the WSW of the Cape
Verde Islands. Both of the main global long range models, the GFS
and ECMWF bring this wave close to the local area by early Sunday,
however the GFS has a closed system while the ECMWF has an open
wave. Given the fact that model forecasting of cyclogenesis is
generally not very consistent among model runs, the forecast for
this weekend is highly uncertain and active monitoring of this
tropical wave will continue as it approaches. The NHC believes
that some gradual development of this wave is possible over the
next few days. We will continue to monitor and keep you up to date
with the latest forecasts from the NHC. Having said that,
regardless of development, there may be a good increase in
moisture and shower activity for the upcoming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds at all Terminals durg prd. SCT ocnl BKN cld
lyrs nr FL025...Fl040...FL090. Few passing -SHRA/SHRA in prevailing
easterly winds flow over coastal waters and en route btw islands.
SHRA/psbly Isold TSRA btw 02/17-02/23z vcty TJMZ/TJBQ, with VCSH at
TJSJ/TJNR/TISX/TIST...as well as in nr TKPK/TNCM . Sfc wnds LGT/VRB,
then incr to 10-15 kts with sea breeze variations and gusty winds
aft 02/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft should exercise caution as winds may reach
20 knots across the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Seas will
be generally 2 to 5 feet. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
across several beaches in PR and Vieques, the eastern beaches of
Culebra and most of the beaches in Saint Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 91 79 / 20 30 40 20
STT 90 80 89 80 / 20 40 40 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#18920 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:19 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
448 AM AST Mon Jul 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture associated with a tropical wave will diminish
through the day...giving way to a drier air mass with Saharan Dust
particles. Therefore...hazy conditions are likely this afternoon
and tonight. Another wave is forecast to cross the local islands
on Tuesday...bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms
to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A tropical wave with axis now across the Mona passage,
will continue to exit the region this morning. However, moisture
trailing the wave will continue to affect the region during the
rest of the morning and the rest of the day. This will result in
passing showers across the coastal waters, some of which will
brush the north and east coastal sections of some of the islands
from time to time. Rainfall amounts however will not be
significant as the showers will be quick passing. Available
moisture along with local and diurnal effects will support
afternoon convection today, but mainly over parts of the central
interior and west sections of PR with where isolated thunderstorms
will be likely. Less shower activity is forecast for this evening
with the intrusion of a Saharan air layer and dust.

On Wednesday, another easterly wave and wind surge will bring
additional moisture to the region. This will allow a better chance
or afternoon convection across the islands, but mainly over the west
and northwest sections of Puerto Rico as well as in and around the
San Juan metro and El Yunque rainforest where convective streamers
will be possible. The remainder of the islands including the USVI
should experience a few early morning passing showers with limited
afternoon showers as mostly fair weather and sunny skies should
prevail. Daytime high temperatures will be seasonal in the high 80s
to near 90 in isolated spots.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
Moisture levels will remain below normal from Thursday through
Saturday morning. As a result...a decrease in shower activity is
anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Afternoon showers are still
forecast for portions of Western PR...however the intensity and
coverage will be less than Wednesday. Some moisture advection is
forecast during the upcoming weekend...resulting in trade wind
showers over the windward areas at night and early in the morning.

A broad area of low pressure about 650 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands will move westward across the tropical Atlantic for
the next several days. The National Hurricane Center is giving a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. At
this time...most of the global models put this disturbance northeast
of PR by Sunday Morning. The impacts for PR/USVI associated with
this disturbance are still uncertain. Therefore...we will closely
monitor the development of this disturbance during the next
couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...Tropical wave exiting the Mona Passage with trailing
SHRA to affect coastal waters and the eastern Caribbean til at least
03/14z. This will result in VCSH mainly at TJSJ/TJNR/TIST/TISX.
Otherwise VFR conds expected at all TAF sites except at TJMZ/TJBQ
where brief MVFR conds psbl in SHRA/Isold TSRA fm 03/17Z-03/22Z...
Sfc wnd LGT/VRB bcmg fm E 10-15 knots w/ocnl higher gusts and sea
breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...The tropical wave located over the Mona Passage this
morning is generating seas of 4-6 feet and winds of 15-20 knots.
As a result...Small craft operators should exercise caution across
the Mona Passage and the Caribbean waters. Elsewhere...seas will
generally range between 3-5 feet. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents across most of the beaches along the north and south
coast of PR, Culebra, Vieques and Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 78 / 40 20 40 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 30 30 50 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: WeatherNewbie and 42 guests