Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19081 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:08 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
329 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers have formed over the Cordillera Central from
Juana Diaz to Sabana Grande and near Cayey and Cidra and in the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase later tonight. A very dangerous Category 4 hurricane will
pass just south of Saint Croix and Vieques and directly impact
Puerto Rico. At this time all of them are expected to experience
eyewall winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. After Thursday, heavy
rain is expected to continue on and off through Saturday as rain
bands cross through the area and the hurricane pulls tropical
moisture out of the deep tropics across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...
Weak bands of drier air are slowly being squeezed out between
moisture associated with an upper level low south of Haiti and
major hurricane Maria. At this time the circulation of Maria
dominates the entire weather pattern in the local area and will
continue to do so through Sunday. Moisture will increase
dramatically from 1.7 inches of precipitable water to as much as
2.9 inches of precipitable water between Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning as rain bands from hurricane Maria become more
frequent and the center approaches. With the current track and
expected intensity of Category 4 (possibly as early as 5 PM AST
this afternoon), Maria will bring catastrophic winds to all the
land areas in the forecast area beginning on Tuesday afternoon.
Major to record rains and flooding are expected to accompany
Maria. Flash flood watches will be issued with the 5 PM AST
forecast package. Flooding could continue beyond the passage of
Maria Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Although the winds of Hurricane Maria will have left the area by
Thursday afternoon, moderate to fresh southeast flow will continue
through Friday. Bands of moisture will converge in this flow
Thursday afternoon through Sunday with additional moisture
traveling in on weak troughs that merge over the Leeward islands
on Sunday morning and arrive Monday morning. Drier air is expected
with the arrival of a low to mid level ridge Tuesday. Rain and
showers will taper off Thursday through Sunday, but the risk of
flooding will continue with showers and thunderstorms and it will
take less rain to initiate flooding and landslides than will have
been delivered by hurricane Maria.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail across PR
terminals, though some -SHRA/TSRA may drift into the vicinity of
TJPS through 19/22z. Similar conditions are expected at USVI
terminals, with VCSH possible at TIST. Outer rain bands associated
with Hurricane Maria are already moving through TNCM and TKPK,
and have shown increasing ENE winds with SHRA due to Maria`s
proximity. Winds will also increase out of the NE at USVI
terminals late in the period, but significant increases in winds
or lowering of flight categories should hold off until just beyond
the end of the 18z TAF period, but mountain obscurations could
begin as early as 19/06Z after the current convection clears.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin to increase overnight with the approach
of Hurricane Maria and tropical storm force winds will be in our
area of responsibility around 8 AM AST and will have covered all
of our marine area by Wednesday afternoon. The eyewall of
hurricane Maria is expected to enter the southeast corner of the
forecast area Tuesday afternoon and exit the northwest corner
Thursday morning with sustained winds in excess of 110 knots.
Seas of 20 to 30 feet with occasional seas over 40 feet expected
with passage. There would be no chance of successful passage
through this storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 86 78 82 / 40 90 100 100
STT 82 85 77 82 / 50 90 100 100
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19082 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:45 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
606 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Extremely dangerous hurricane Maria will continue to
move west northwest and will approach the local area late tonight
into early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Fast moving passing showers affected the north and
east sections of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. This activity was associated with
the first external bands of Hurricane Maria. It was very humid and
warm overnight with the minimum temperature dropping only to 83
degrees. The winds were mainly northeast at 15 to 20 mph.

Main feature is extremely and potentially catastrophic hurricane
Maria which regained category 5 strength. At 5am AST estimated
maximum sustained winds were 160 mph. It was located around 275
miles southeast of Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands as early as
tonight. Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take
necessary actions to secure your home or business. When making
safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact
forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties which
must be taken into account. Be safe!

&&

.AVIATION...The TAFS today will be a mixed bag with some location
experience tropical storm wind gusts starting this morning at
terminals TKPK and TNCM. Hurricane Maria`s rainbands will affect
other sites later this morning and through the evening. This
afternoon tropical storm force wind will start spreading from west
to east starting with the Virgin Islands terminals sites TKPK, and
TNCM, this activity will move to terminals TJSJ, TJPS, TJBQ and
TJMZ. Sustained Tropical Storm force winds will most likely start at
TNCM and TKPK by 12z-14z, and Tropical Storm force gusts to the USVI
by 16z. Similar winds are not likely to occur at PR terminals before
18Z. Tropical storm force winds will prevail across all terminals
sites starting at 18Z with Hurricane force winds also occurring by
20/0Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin to increase this afternoon with the
approach of Hurricane Maria and tropical storm force winds will be
in our area of responsibility around 8 PM AST and will have
covered all of our marine area by Wednesday afternoon. The eyewall
of hurricane Maria is expected to enter the southeast corner of
the forecast area this evening and exit the northwest corner
Thursday afternoon with sustained winds in excess of 130 knots.
Seas of 20 to 30 feet with occasional seas over 40 feet expected
with the passage. There would be no chance of successful passage
through this storm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flash flood watch is in effect for all Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By Early this evening and continuing
into Wednesday the very heavy rain of the core of the hurricane
will spread extreme amounts of rain over the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico. Please refer to latest hydrology products.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 82 78 / 90 100 100 100
STT 85 77 82 79 / 90 100 100 100
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19083 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:45 am

Thinking of our friend, cycloneye (Luis) and hoping he is OK in Puerto Rico
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19084 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:48 pm

msbee wrote:Thinking of our friend, cycloneye (Luis) and hoping he is OK in Puerto Rico

OH YEAH :( :cry: barbara! Let's hope that everyday; still thinking that he will be with us at the end of the month! :D :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19085 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:23 pm

You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19086 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:04 pm

abajan wrote:You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867

wow! It's a tropical wave passing through?
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19087 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:00 pm

msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867

wow! It's a tropical wave passing through?

Yep. I don't know the full story, but I think there's a HIGH to our northeast and a LOW over South America, and the pressure difference is causing the high winds. I can recall a tropical wave in the late 1980's having wind gusts of 60 mph.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19088 Postby msbee » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:12 am

Has anyone heard from Luis (cycloneye) yet?
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19089 Postby abajan » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:30 am

msbee wrote:Has anyone heard from Luis (cycloneye) yet?
Unfortunately, no. Not sure if any of the Storm2k admins was able to contact him by phone, though.

On a brighter note, it's good to see the Maho Beach Webcam back online! 8-)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19090 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:59 pm

I am back my Caribbean friends.I am fine as well my family.I can tell that it was a very horrific experience that I dont want to see again.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19091 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:59 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 PM AST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A shear line across Puerto Rico and north of the U.S.
Virgin Islands will be taken northwest a short distance by
several high pressures invading the Western Atlantic. As mid-level
high pressure forms just north of the area on Wednesday, moisture,
clouds and showers will return to the area Wednesday through
Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...

GOES 16 satellite imagery shows an area of disturbed weather to
the southwest of Puerto Rico that is moving off to the northeast
and has brought heavy rain, frequent lightning and flooding to
portions of Puerto Rico. Currently the shear line is positioned
across northwest Puerto Rico with converging southerly winds
ahead of the boundary. Although stability will increase this
evening, light to moderate rain will continue, diminishing, and
some inundation of low-lying and poorly drained areas will
continue.

Although moisture begins to decrease in the mid-levels tonight,
lingering low-level moisture will drive another round of showers
and thunderstorms during the day Monday. Tuesday the trough of
low pressure will begin to pull away from the forecast area and
allow an upper level ridge of high pressure to nose in over the
region. This ridge will give the islands a brief reprieve from the
heavy rainfall by limiting the influx of deep tropical moisture
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The GFS is showing
a line of drier air at 700 mb coinciding with a ridge of high
pressure that extenuates from the tropical Atlantic into the
Caribbean and then northwest across Puerto Rico. Model data is
showing precipitable water values falling to between 1.25 to 1.50
inches which is in the 25th percentile. This in contrast with
values that were in the 75th percentile the last four days.



.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Moisture begins to return around a mid level high pressure
Wednesday and coupled with an approaching trough from the east,
winds will turn somewhat northeasterly. Although a mid to upper
level ridge will hold across the forecast area much of the
forecast period, these easterly winds will continue to bring
patches of low level moisture across the local isles to keep the
chance of passing showers each day. Therefore, expect a seasonable
weather pattern with passing showers across U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico as well as limited shower activity across
western Puerto Rico Wednesday through Saturday. The upper
level ridge will begin to erode during the upcoming weekend and
lower levels clouds will allow some more sun and hence the
possibility of increasing thunderstorms in interior and western
Puerto Rico.


&&

.AVIATION...

Aviation...SHRA/ and diminishing TSRA expected to continue across
the local area thru 20/02Z, causing VCSH/VCTS across the
terminals with TEMPO MVFR conds possible at TJBQ and TJMZ thru
20/02Z. VFR conds to continue thru 20/15Z with CIGS BLO FL120 and
mtn obscurations. Southerly winds sfc to FL200 gradly shifting to
SE 10 to 20 kt by 20/18Z. Maximum winds WSW 30 kt around FL400
thru 20/18Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas 3 to 5 feet possibly 6 in the outer Atlantic waters
by Wednesday. Seas somewhat lower in the Caribbean. Small craft
advisory conditions not expected during the next 7 days in the
forecast area, but 7 foot seas possible north of the area by
Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 60 60 20 30
STT 78 85 79 86 / 50 50 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19092 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:06 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A shearline just to the northwest of the local area is
now dissipating, but above normal moisture will remain over the
local area today. Winds will be southeasterly today but will turn
easterly as a surface high pressure moved over the western
Atlantic, north of the local islands. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected today, however, upper ridge will dominate the local
area starting on Tuesday, stabilizing the local atmosphere just
as drier air moves in, which will cause a decrease in shower and
thunderstorm activity, even after moisture increases slightly on
Wednesday since the upper ridge will remain for the next several
days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the forecast
area overnight and early this morning. Showers were observed
across the local waters but none over land areas. Coastal
temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s under light and variable
winds.

Lingering moisture associated with a dissipating shear line will
continue to prevail across the local isles today. Although latest
guidance continues to suggest precipitable water decreasing somewhat
across the area as well as less coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, there still a high chance for showers/thunderstorms
to form in the southeasterly flow off of El Yunque and into the San
Juan Metro Area and over the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico. Due
to already saturated soils, any prolonged period of heavy rainfall
will result urban flooding and sharp rises along small streams and
rivers as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Although a
mid to upper level ridge will build across the forecast area and
hold through the forecast period, easterly winds will continue to
bring patches of low level moisture to keep the chance of passing
showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, expect a seasonable
weather pattern with passing showers across USVI and E PR as well as
limited shower activity across west Puerto Rico both days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

Late in the workweek into early next week, the available moisture
will be rather variable, with patches of moisture and patches of
drier air moving through the local area generally speaking. There
will be a day with near normal moisture then a day with lower
moisture followed by higher moisture. This pattern of somewhat
patchy moisture normally causes brief and isolated showers in
the morning and overnight hours with locally induced showers in
the afternoon but generally not very intense or widespread, which
will likely be the case late this week and at least into the
weekend since an upper high pressure is expected to prevail over
the local area. The expected equivalent potential temperature
indicates mostly stable conditions as well, therefore at this
time we expect some but not much weather late this week into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected through 20/16z. SHRA/TSRA
expected in the afternoon to result in MVFR conds in and around
JSJ/JBQ and JMZ through 20/22z. Elsewhere VCSH expected. ESE winds
at around 10 knots with some sea breeze variations, becoming light
and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected today across the local
waters for the next few days. Winds will be up to 10 knots today
from the southeast, increasing to up to 15 knots from the east on
Tuesday and for the next several days after that. There is a
moderate risk of rip currents today along the northeast, north and
northwest coast of mainland Puerto Rico and Culebra. Small
sections in southwest Puerto Rico also has a moderate risk of rip
currents as well as the northern and eastern beaches of Vieques,
the north and northwest beaches of Saint Tomas and Cramer Park in
Saint Croix.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 90 76 / 50 20 20 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 50 20 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19093 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:32 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
420 PM AST Mon Nov 20 2017

SYNOPSIS...An induced trof over Hispaniola and its associated
moisture will linger overnight across the Mona Passage and over
the Atlantic waters. A building upper level ridge will dominate
the local weather pattern during the next several days. Drier air
and more easterly trades will prevail on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Moisture increases once again on Thursday as an induced surface
trof moves from the northeast.

.SHORT TERM...Monday through Wednesday...

Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western and northern
sections of PR are expected to diminish around sunset. Fair
weather conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday, as
a ridge builds aloft and drier air filters from the east.
Therefore, brief periods of trade wind showers are possible during
the overnight and early morning hours across the islands followed
by limited diurnally induced afternoon convection over portions
of western PR. Low level moisture increases once again by late
Wednesday into Thursday, but with ridge aloft any afternoon
convection should be short lived.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, as sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected to prevail, temperatures will increase and should range
between the high 80s to low 90s across the coastal areas. Winds
will prevail from the east to east-southeast between 5-15 mph with
sea breeze and land breeze variations.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...from previous
discussion...

Late in the workweek into early next week, the available moisture
will be rather variable, with patches of moisture and patches of
drier air moving through the local area generally speaking. There
will be a day with near normal moisture then a day with lower
moisture followed by higher moisture. This pattern of somewhat
patchy moisture normally causes brief and isolated showers in
the morning and overnight hours with locally induced showers in
the afternoon but generally not very intense or widespread, which
will likely be the case late this week and at least into the
weekend since an upper high pressure is expected to prevail over
the local area. The expected equivalent potential temperature
indicates mostly stable conditions as well, therefore at this
time we expect some but not much weather late this week into
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to continue across the local area
today, with VCSH/VCTS across the terminals. SHRA/TSRA activity
increases, CIGS will be lower, possibly at FL050 or below at times.
Winds will be mainly light and southeasterly, but TJSJ may observe
light and variable winds today.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue between 3 to 5 feet and winds will be
from the east-southeast between 5 to 15 knots through Tuesday. A
wind surge from the northeast will result in seas up to 7 feet on
Wednesday and small craft advisories will be required for the
Atlantic offshore waters and the Anegada Passage. A small
northerly swell will continue to result in a moderate risk of rip
currents across most of the Atlantic beaches of the islands.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 89 / 20 20 20 30
STT 76 86 77 86 / 20 20 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19094 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:55 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air will reduce showers and thunderstorms today,
but moisture will return Thursday and Friday. Another break over
the weekend will occur before moisture returns from the south on
Monday. Cold fronts are still being restrained from reaching the
area by local trade winds during the next 7 to 10 days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the forecast area overnight and
early this morning. A few passing showers were observed across the
local waters but none over land areas. Coastal temperatures were in
the mid to upper 70s under east southeast winds at 10 mph or
less.

Although a mid to upper level ridge will continue to build across
the forecast area today and hold through much of the week, easterly
winds will continue to bring patches of low level moisture at
times.

The GFS is showing a drop in precipitable water to as
little as 1.1 inches tonight. Environmental conditions are
rapidly becoming hostile for organized deep convection under the
building ridge, but there will still be enough low level moisture
to assure shower activity, particularly late Wednesday into
Thursday. In fact, based on the latest guidance, today through
Wednesday afternoon is the driest period with precipitable water
increasing to near two inches Wednesday night into Thursday.
Therefore, expect a fair and generally stable weather pattern
today and Wednesday with morning passing showers across USVI and
east PR followed by some afternoon showers across west Puerto
Rico. The chance for shower activity will increase Wednesday night
into Thursday as low level moisture increases across the eastern
Caribbean.

The flash flood watch in Northwest Puerto Rico is for the
downstream portion of Rio Guajataca below the lake. Recent rains
have raised the lake levels several feet and local authorities
want to maintain vigilance regarding the unstable condition of
the dam.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday... High pressure that forms
just north of the Mona channel Wednesday night will bring in
moisture on Thursday from the northeast that will linger until
early Saturday morning. This and the easterly wave that will move
through on Friday will continue the good chances for both night
and early morning showers in eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands and showers and isolated thunderstorms in western
Puerto Rico in the afternoon. A break in the moisture will occur
over the weekend. As a cold front sweeps down through the last of
the Bahama islands on Monday a new surge of tropical moisture
invades the area from the Caribbean Sea to the south. Lower levels
will then see wet and dry periods during the first part of next
week and the front will lift to the north mid week next week before
reaching the area.

The ridge of high pressure at upper levels will continue just
east of the area and keep convection limited. The deep long wave
trough invading the western Atlantic on Sunday will weaken in the
process of flattening that ridge in its passage through the area
on Wednesday of next week. Although good moisture will be
available during the week next week it will not be as strong as
has occurred in the last few days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF
sites throughout the day. Brief MVFR conds will remain possible in
and around JMZ/JBQ due to SHRA btw 21/16-22z. ESE winds at around 10
knots with some sea breeze variation to continue.


&&

.MARINE...East northeast winds behind a front dipping toward the
tropical Atlantic today will drive swell into the outer Atlantic
waters late Wednesday. seas will approach small craft advisory
conditions then. Small craft advisories are not expected through
the middle of next week after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 30
STT 86 77 85 76 / 20 30 30 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19095 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:10 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 PM AST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate
the local weather pattern during the next several days. Drier air
will continue through Wednesday. Moisture increases once again on
Thursday and Friday as an induced surface trof moves from the
east. Drier conditions return during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Little to none rain was observed today over land areas. Mostly
sunny skies prevailed across all islands. Fair weather conditions
will continue through Wednesday. A few isolated showers cant be
ruled out across western PR during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, as a weak perturbation/induced trof moves from the
east...moisture will increase and a better chance for shower with
possible isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the
the Cordillera Central during Thursday afternoon. Temperatures
will continue between the high 80s to low 90s across the lower
elevations each day.

.LONG TERM....FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....Friday through
Wednesday...

High pressure that forms just north of the Mona channel Wednesday
night will bring in moisture on Thursday from the northeast that
will linger until early Saturday morning. This and the easterly
wave that will move through on Friday will continue the good
chances for both night and early morning showers in eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and showers and isolated
thunderstorms in western Puerto Rico in the afternoon. A break in
the moisture will occur over the weekend. As a cold front sweeps
down through the last of the Bahama islands on Monday a new surge
of tropical moisture invades the area from the Caribbean Sea to
the south. Lower levels will then see wet and dry periods during
the first part of next week and the front will lift to the north
mid week next week before reaching the area.

The ridge of high pressure at upper levels will continue just
east of the area and keep convection limited. The deep long wave
trough invading the western Atlantic on Sunday will weaken in the
process of flattening that ridge in its passage through the area
on Wednesday of next week. Although good moisture will be
available during the week next week it will not be as strong as
has occurred in the last few days.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds across the flying area and at all terminals
durg the prd. Few SHRA en route btw islands with FEW-SCT cld lyrs nr
FL030...FL050 overnight til 22/14z. L/lvl wnds fm SE 10-15 kts,blo
FL100...bcmg SW-W then incr w/ht abv. SFC Wnd lgt/vrb...bcmg E-SE 10-
15 kts with sea breeze variations along the coastal areas aft
22/14z. No sig wx impact across the region attm.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue between 3-5 feet across the offshore
waters and between 2-4 feet across the coastal waters through
Wednesday. Seas increase up to 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic
waters between Wednesday night and Thursday. A small craft
advisory will be in effect through this period. A moderate risk of
rip currents will continue for the next several days across the
Atlantic beaches of the islands.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 76 88 / 20 20 30 50
STT 76 87 77 85 / 20 30 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19096 Postby msbee » Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:I am back my Caribbean friends.I am fine as well my family.I can tell that it was a very horrific experience that I dont want to see again.

Luis, I am so glad to see you back.
what a relief!
I know you and your family have been through a horrible ordeal with Maria but am glad you are fine.
It was Irma that hit St Maarten. It was the scariest thing I have ever been through and I have seen lots of hurricanes.
i agree that it is an experience i don't want to see again either.
Wishing you and PR quick recovery.
Welcome back! :clap: :woo:
Barbara
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19097 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:21 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
446 AM AST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A retreating cold front and high pressure at 700 mb
north of the areas will allow some moisture to return to the area
later today through Friday. Areas of drier air will pass through
over the weekend followed by modest moisture and an increase in
clouds and showers.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
Mostly clear skies were observed across the forecast area and little
to no rain was observed over land areas. Only few light showers
were observed moving west northwestward across the surrounding
coastal waters. An upper level ridge will continue to build and
hold over the region until the upcoming weekend. The developing
upper ridge will be the main weather feature across the region
today, producing a fair and stable weather across Puerto Rico,
USVI and surrounding waters. A few isolated showers can`t be
ruled out across western PR this afternoon. Early on Thursday, a
week low level perturbation is expected to move across the region
from the east, increasing the moisture and the chances of showers
with possible isolated thunderstorms development along the
Cordillera Central as well as across the western sections of the
islands. The moisture associated with this perturbation will
remain across the region until Friday. However, due to the
presence of the upper ridge, widespread precipitation is not
expected. Temperatures will continue between the high 80s to low
90s across the lower elevations each day. A drier trend will
return to the islands beginning Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
The high pressure at 700 mb forming north of us Thursday and
Friday will move northeast and shear out on Sunday due to an
approaching cold front. Areas of drier air will pass through on
Sunday before moisture again begins to increase Monday and Monday
night over us ahead of the front. The front will stall out
northwest of the area Tuesday through Thursday. During the
interaction of weak local troughs moving in the easterly low level
flow toward the front, moisture increases and scattered showers
begin to affect much of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Low pressure at lower levels develops north of Hispaniola later
next week in response to a short wave that dives southeast during
the week and crosses the area on Wednesday causing a low to cut-
off north of the forecast area. This and an upper level jet around
the short wave and subsequent cut-off low will also enhance
showers in only modestly moist east to east southeast low-level
flow continuing across the area through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area this morning and for most of the period. Few SHRA embedded in
the trades will produce VCSH across the Leeward and USVI TAF sites
til 22/14Z. Light and variable winds until 22/13Z, becoming E-SE and
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with sea breeze variations along the
coastal areas after 22/14z. No sig wx impact expected across the
flying area attm. Maximum winds west today ranging from 30-40 kt
between FL360-450.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are rising slowly at the outer buoy and are almost
7 feet now. Seas are expected to continue to rise north of the
area and by tonight some 7 foot seas are expected in the outer
Atlantic waters that will last through Thursday. No small craft
advisories are expected after Thursday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 78 / 20 30 50 50
STT 86 77 85 77 / 30 50 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19098 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:17 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 PM AST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surge of low level moisture is expected on Thursday
and Friday. Drier conditions return later in the weekend. Mid to
upper level ridge will continue to hold for the next several days.
A short wave trof moves close to the area by mid week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday...

Precipitable water content will be at normal to above normal
levels(~1.75 inches) on Thursday and Friday as moisture increases
from the east with the trade winds. Therefore, expect showers
with a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop mainly over
the Cordillera Central into the western interior portions of the
islands. Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies with passing showers are
expected from time to time. Fair weather conditions return during
the weekend as drier air filters once again and PWAT content drops
to below normal levels.


.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....Sunday through Friday...

The high pressure at 700 mb forming north of us Thursday and
Friday will move northeast and shear out on Sunday due to an
approaching cold front. Areas of drier air will pass through on
Sunday before moisture again begins to increase Monday and Monday
night over us ahead of the front. The front will stall out
northwest of the area Tuesday through Thursday. During the
interaction of weak local troughs moving in the easterly low level
flow toward the front, moisture increases and scattered showers
begin to affect much of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Low pressure at lower levels develops north of Hispaniola later
next week in response to a short wave that dives southeast during
the week and crosses the area on Wednesday causing a low to cut-
off north of the forecast area. This and an upper level jet around
the short wave and subsequent cut-off low will also enhance
showers in only modestly moist east to east southeast low-level
flow continuing across the area through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds across the local flying durg prd. Few SHRA
ovr coastal waters btw islands fm22/23z-23/14z. Sfc wnd bcmg lgt/vrb
aft 22/23z...bcmg fm E 10-15 kts aft 23/14z with sea breeze
variations. L/lvl wnds fm SE 5-15 kts blo FL100...then bcm fm SW-W
and incr w/ht ABV. No sig wx impacts anticipated across the flying
area attm.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory in effect for the offshore
Atlantic waters due to 7 ft seas from tonight through Thursday.
Small crafts should exercise caution across the coastal waters of
eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI as well across the Anegada
passage due to seas up to 6 feet. A moderate risk of rip currents
continues for much of the north and east facing beaches of the
islands.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 30 50 50 50
STT 76 86 77 87 / 50 50 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19099 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:20 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 AM AST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trade winds at the surface will continue through the
period. Moisture increases today and Friday as a weak trough
moves through the area, but the weekend will be considerably
drier. Moisture returns Monday through Wednesday as the next cold
front remains well north of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
Today moisture returns across the region with precipitable water
values increasing to almost 1.90 inches by mid afternoon. The
ridge of high pressure that has provided tranquil weather the last
few days will continue to influence the weather through Saturday.
This afternoon a surge of low level moisture associated with an
easterly wave will move in from the east. This moisture will
bring an increase in shower activity across the entire forecast
area with the greatest impact along the Cordillera Central and
western and southwestern Puerto Rico. Isolated thunderstorms are
also possible.

The area of low-level moisture will continue across the forecast
area until Friday evening, then mid-levels dry out almost
completely and shower activity will decrease considerably on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...
Colder air will move out of the eastern United States into the
western Atlantic but will make very little progress south toward
the area. At the same time modest patches of moisture will push
through in generally easterly flow at lower levels owing to the
migrating highs that move north of the area and the weak troughing
over the area during the period. At upper levels high pressure
dominates the southern Caribbean and a deep polar trough over the
United States shears out and moves across the Atlantic in a
greatly weakened condition, passing just to the north accompanied
by an 80 knot jet late Wednesday. The trough passage at upper
levels will enhance shower activity somewhat but dynamics are
weak.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across the local flying
area this morning and for most of the period. Increasing moisture
will bring clouds and SHRAs along the Cordillera and spreading to
TJMZ with brief MVFR conds due to CIGS and mtn obscurations from
El Yunque to SW PR. SFC winds out of the ENE to NE at 5 to 10 kts
during the early morning switching to easterly directions by
23/18Z with sea breeze variations. FL250 TO FL500 winds out of the
west at 15 to 30 kts with the strongest winds near FL410.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have were running 8 to 9 feet at the outer bouy
42043 north of the area, but only 4-5.5 feet at the inner buoy.
Seas will begin to subside this morning and the small craft
advisory should be down by 2 PM AST. 7-foot seas are not expected
in the outer Atlantic waters until mid week next week and are not
expected anywhere else in the forecast area this month.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 50 50 50 40
STT 86 77 86 76 / 50 50 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19100 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:02 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 PM AST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weak surface trof moving across the islands will
continue to produce periods of showers through Friday night.
Drier air and fair weather conditions are expected late during
the weekend into early next week. Another surge in moisture is
expected by mid-week next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday...As surface trof moves
from east to west...lingering low level moisture will continue
through late Friday. Therefore, showers will continue to move from
time to time across the local waters and over portions of the
USVI and eastern PR. A northeasterly steering wind flow today will
keep best shower activity over and to the south-southwest of the
Cordillera Central. However, ridge aloft will inhibit widespread
convection.

On Friday afternoon, as the trof exits the area winds will be
more southeasterly and the focus of convection will be over the
NW quadrant of the island. Streamers developing off the USVI will
affect mainly portions of Vieques and eastern PR. Also, showers
streaming from el Yunque area could move over portions of San Juan
and vicinity and cause ponding of water in poor drainage areas.
On Saturday, drier air at the mid levels return and will
suppress/limit shower activity across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...From previous discussion...Sunday through
Wednesday...Colder air will move out of the eastern United
States into the western Atlantic but will make very little
progress south toward the area. At the same time modest patches of
moisture will push through in generally easterly flow at lower
levels allowing the migrating highs that move north of the area
and the weak troughing over the area during the period. At upper
levels high pressure dominates the southern Caribbean and a deep
polar trough over the United States shears out and moves across
the Atlantic in a greatly weakened condition, passing just to the
north accompanied by an 80 knot jet late Wednesday. The trough
passage at upper levels will enhance shower activity somewhat but
dynamics are weak.


&&

..AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conds across the local flying area durg
prd. However til 23/23z...VCSH at all terminals til 23/23z with
brief SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025...FL050. Passing SHRA ovr coastal
waters en route btw islands and ovr coastal waters til 23/14z. Sfc
wnd bcmg lgt/vrb aft 23/23z...bcmg fm E 10-15 kts aft 24/14z with
sea breeze variations. L/lvl wnds fm SE 5-15 kts blo FL150...then
bcm fm W and incr w/ht abv FL250. No sig wx impacts anticipated
across the flying area attm.


&&

.MARINE...Small crafts should exercise caution across the offshore
Atlantic waters, the Anegada Passage and the waters between
eastern PR and the USVI due to seas up to 6 feet. Elsewhere, seas
should range between 3-5 feet and easterly winds should continue
between 5-15 knots. A moderate risk of rip currents continues for
much of the north and east facing beaches of the islands.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 88 / 50 40 40 40
STT 77 86 76 86 / 50 40 40 40
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