Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19081 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:08 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
329 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers have formed over the Cordillera Central from
Juana Diaz to Sabana Grande and near Cayey and Cidra and in the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase later tonight. A very dangerous Category 4 hurricane will
pass just south of Saint Croix and Vieques and directly impact
Puerto Rico. At this time all of them are expected to experience
eyewall winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. After Thursday, heavy
rain is expected to continue on and off through Saturday as rain
bands cross through the area and the hurricane pulls tropical
moisture out of the deep tropics across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...
Weak bands of drier air are slowly being squeezed out between
moisture associated with an upper level low south of Haiti and
major hurricane Maria. At this time the circulation of Maria
dominates the entire weather pattern in the local area and will
continue to do so through Sunday. Moisture will increase
dramatically from 1.7 inches of precipitable water to as much as
2.9 inches of precipitable water between Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning as rain bands from hurricane Maria become more
frequent and the center approaches. With the current track and
expected intensity of Category 4 (possibly as early as 5 PM AST
this afternoon), Maria will bring catastrophic winds to all the
land areas in the forecast area beginning on Tuesday afternoon.
Major to record rains and flooding are expected to accompany
Maria. Flash flood watches will be issued with the 5 PM AST
forecast package. Flooding could continue beyond the passage of
Maria Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Although the winds of Hurricane Maria will have left the area by
Thursday afternoon, moderate to fresh southeast flow will continue
through Friday. Bands of moisture will converge in this flow
Thursday afternoon through Sunday with additional moisture
traveling in on weak troughs that merge over the Leeward islands
on Sunday morning and arrive Monday morning. Drier air is expected
with the arrival of a low to mid level ridge Tuesday. Rain and
showers will taper off Thursday through Sunday, but the risk of
flooding will continue with showers and thunderstorms and it will
take less rain to initiate flooding and landslides than will have
been delivered by hurricane Maria.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail across PR
terminals, though some -SHRA/TSRA may drift into the vicinity of
TJPS through 19/22z. Similar conditions are expected at USVI
terminals, with VCSH possible at TIST. Outer rain bands associated
with Hurricane Maria are already moving through TNCM and TKPK,
and have shown increasing ENE winds with SHRA due to Maria`s
proximity. Winds will also increase out of the NE at USVI
terminals late in the period, but significant increases in winds
or lowering of flight categories should hold off until just beyond
the end of the 18z TAF period, but mountain obscurations could
begin as early as 19/06Z after the current convection clears.


&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin to increase overnight with the approach
of Hurricane Maria and tropical storm force winds will be in our
area of responsibility around 8 AM AST and will have covered all
of our marine area by Wednesday afternoon. The eyewall of
hurricane Maria is expected to enter the southeast corner of the
forecast area Tuesday afternoon and exit the northwest corner
Thursday morning with sustained winds in excess of 110 knots.
Seas of 20 to 30 feet with occasional seas over 40 feet expected
with passage. There would be no chance of successful passage
through this storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 86 78 82 / 40 90 100 100
STT 82 85 77 82 / 50 90 100 100
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19082 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:45 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
606 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Extremely dangerous hurricane Maria will continue to
move west northwest and will approach the local area late tonight
into early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Fast moving passing showers affected the north and
east sections of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. This activity was associated with
the first external bands of Hurricane Maria. It was very humid and
warm overnight with the minimum temperature dropping only to 83
degrees. The winds were mainly northeast at 15 to 20 mph.

Main feature is extremely and potentially catastrophic hurricane
Maria which regained category 5 strength. At 5am AST estimated
maximum sustained winds were 160 mph. It was located around 275
miles southeast of Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands as early as
tonight. Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take
necessary actions to secure your home or business. When making
safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact
forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties which
must be taken into account. Be safe!

&&

.AVIATION...The TAFS today will be a mixed bag with some location
experience tropical storm wind gusts starting this morning at
terminals TKPK and TNCM. Hurricane Maria`s rainbands will affect
other sites later this morning and through the evening. This
afternoon tropical storm force wind will start spreading from west
to east starting with the Virgin Islands terminals sites TKPK, and
TNCM, this activity will move to terminals TJSJ, TJPS, TJBQ and
TJMZ. Sustained Tropical Storm force winds will most likely start at
TNCM and TKPK by 12z-14z, and Tropical Storm force gusts to the USVI
by 16z. Similar winds are not likely to occur at PR terminals before
18Z. Tropical storm force winds will prevail across all terminals
sites starting at 18Z with Hurricane force winds also occurring by
20/0Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will begin to increase this afternoon with the
approach of Hurricane Maria and tropical storm force winds will be
in our area of responsibility around 8 PM AST and will have
covered all of our marine area by Wednesday afternoon. The eyewall
of hurricane Maria is expected to enter the southeast corner of
the forecast area this evening and exit the northwest corner
Thursday afternoon with sustained winds in excess of 130 knots.
Seas of 20 to 30 feet with occasional seas over 40 feet expected
with the passage. There would be no chance of successful passage
through this storm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flash flood watch is in effect for all Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By Early this evening and continuing
into Wednesday the very heavy rain of the core of the hurricane
will spread extreme amounts of rain over the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico. Please refer to latest hydrology products.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 82 78 / 90 100 100 100
STT 85 77 82 79 / 90 100 100 100
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msbee
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19083 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:45 am

Thinking of our friend, cycloneye (Luis) and hoping he is OK in Puerto Rico
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19084 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:48 pm

msbee wrote:Thinking of our friend, cycloneye (Luis) and hoping he is OK in Puerto Rico

OH YEAH :( :cry: barbara! Let's hope that everyday; still thinking that he will be with us at the end of the month! :D :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19085 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:23 pm

You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19086 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:04 pm

abajan wrote:You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867

wow! It's a tropical wave passing through?
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#19087 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:00 pm

msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:You guys won't believe the sort of winds we've been getting in Barbados since early this morning: Sustained up to 39 mph, with gusts well into tropical storm force (up to 55 mph). Just crazy!

http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings- ... 1508344867

wow! It's a tropical wave passing through?

Yep. I don't know the full story, but I think there's a HIGH to our northeast and a LOW over South America, and the pressure difference is causing the high winds. I can recall a tropical wave in the late 1980's having wind gusts of 60 mph.
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