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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10461 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:20 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 221432
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES. EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS
IT IS...IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. FROM A
DVORAK PERSPECTIVE...THE SYSTEM IS RATED AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. HOWEVER...BUOY...SHIP...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN
SAYING OTHERWISE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT.
AS OPHELIA APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE STORM IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE FURTHER. SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE STRONG SHEAR. AFTERWARDS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR THE STORM
WILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND SOME OF THE OTHER
NUMERICAL MODELS.

IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO TRACK THE CENTER BUT A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.6N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.0N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 22.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10462 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:22 am

Tropical Storm OPHELIA Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT31 KNHC 221431
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

...OPHELIA DISORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING 65 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 47.6W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10463 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:24 am

Ophelia
11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 22
Location: 13.6°N 47.6°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10464 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:28 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia Is Strengthening; However, It Is Expected To Weaken Over The Next Couple Of Days; I Am Still Keeping A Close Eye On The Western Caribbean Once We Get Into Early October
Rob Lightbown on September 22, 2011, 5:34 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia:
Ophelia has strengthened more than what was expected over the last 24 hours and as of this morning, the storm has 65 mph maximum winds. This strengthening is expected to come to a grinding halt as strong southwesterly wind shear will start to impact Ophelia over the next couple of days. This shear will cause the storm to weaken to a weak tropical storm and very possibly a tropical depression by late Friday into Saturday. Strengthening may once again occur, very much like what happened with Maria, once Ophelia is located about halfway between Bermuda and the north coast of Puerto Rico by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Ophelia is tracking to the west at a forward speed of 13 to 14 mph this morning and Ophelia is expected to turn to the west-northwest once we get into Friday. A turn to the northwest is expected this weekend and this should bring Ophelia far enough north and east of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean to cause no significant impacts there. With that said, all interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor the progress of Ophelia.

Once we get into next week, Ophelia is forecast to turn to the north and potentially impact Bermuda right around Wednesday and Thursday of next week with tropical storm conditions possible. Ophelia is expected to stay well east of the United States and will not impact the weather along the US East Coast.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10465 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:30 am

Current Weather Conditions:
Juliana Airport, Saint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles

(TNCM) 18-03N 063-07W 9M
Conditions at

2011.09.22 1500 UTC
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.03 in. Hg (1017 hPa)
ob TNCM 221500Z 12009KT 9999 SCT018 29/24 Q1017
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 11 AM (15) Sep 22 84 (29) 75 (24) 30.03 (1017) ESE 10
10 AM (14) Sep 22 82 (28) 77 (25) 30.03 (1017) ESE 8
9 AM (13) Sep 22 80 (27) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) ESE 12
8 AM (12) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) E 12 light rain showers
7 AM (11) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 9 light rain showers
6 AM (10) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 12 showers in the vicinity
5 AM (9) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ESE 13
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 10
2 AM (6) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ESE 8
1 AM (5) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 8
Midnight (4) Sep 22 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 13
11 PM (3) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 13
10 PM (2) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 10
9 PM (1) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 14
8 PM (0) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ESE 14
7 PM (23) Sep 21 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) ESE 15
6 PM (22) Sep 21 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) SE 20
5 PM (21) Sep 21 82 (28) 78 (26) SE 17 rain during the past hour
4 PM (20) Sep 21 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) ESE 12 light rain showers
3 PM (19) Sep 21 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) ENE 14 light rain showers
2 PM (18) Sep 21 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) ENE 14 light rain showers
1 PM (17) Sep 21 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) ENE 16
Oldest Noon (16) Sep 21 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) E 14
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10466 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:31 am

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe

(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at

2011.09.22 1505 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 87 F (31 C)
Heat index 93.9 F (34.4 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 62%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 221505Z 10017KT 070V130 9999 BKN023 BKN050 BKN260 31/23 Q1016 TEMPO 5000 -SHRA
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 11 AM (15) Sep 22 87 (31) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) E 20
10 AM (14) Sep 22 86 (30) 75 (24) 30.03 (1017) E 18
9 AM (13) Sep 22 86 (30) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) E 16
8 AM (12) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 7
7 AM (11) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ESE 13
6 AM (10) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 6
5 AM (9) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 5
4 AM (8) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 5
3 AM (7) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) Variable 3
2 AM (6) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) E 5
1 AM (5) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 5
Midnight (4) Sep 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) Calm
11 PM (3) Sep 21 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 3
10 PM (2) Sep 21 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) E 3
9 PM (1) Sep 21 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 6
8 PM (0) Sep 21 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 6
7 PM (23) Sep 21 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 5
6 PM (22) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) E 3
5 PM (21) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ESE 7
4 PM (20) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) E 6
3 PM (19) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 7
2 PM (18) Sep 21 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) E 8
1 PM (17) Sep 21 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) SE 13
Oldest Noon (16) Sep 21 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) SSE 13 light rain showers
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10467 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:10 am

Jimsot wrote:Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.7N, 62.0W or about 124.3 miles (200.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 20 hours and 47 minutes from now (Sunday, September 25 at 2:18PM


I like the trend to the right! Maybe US Air will make it to St. Martin Sunday.



It looks like all will be good for your Sunday trip.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10468 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:11 am

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10469 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:39 am

Current Weather Conditions:
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR, United States

(TJSJ) 18-27N 066-00W
Conditions at

2011.09.22 1556 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 90.0 F (32.2 C)
Heat index 100.2 F (37.9 C)
Dew Point 75.0 F (23.9 C)
Relative Humidity 61%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.02 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TJSJ 221556Z 09013KT 10SM FEW028 SCT034 SCT090 32/24 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP165 T03220239
Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

Maximum
Temperature
F (C) Minimum
Temperature
F (C)
82.0 (27.8) 79.0 (26.1) In the 6 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 1156 UTC
89.1 (31.7) 75.0 (23.9) In the 24 hours preceding Sep 21, 2011 - 11:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.22 0356 UTC
Precipitation Accumulation

Precipitation
Amount
0.29 inches In the 6 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 1156 UTC
0.57 inches In the 24 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 1156 UTC
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest Noon (16) Sep 22 90.0 (32.2) 75.0 (23.9) 30.02 (1016) E 15
11 AM (15) Sep 22 88.0 (31.1) 75.0 (23.9) 30.03 (1016) E 12
10 AM (14) Sep 22 87.1 (30.6) 73.9 (23.3) 30.03 (1016) E 10
9 AM (13) Sep 22 84.9 (29.4) 75.9 (24.4) 30.03 (1016) E 10
8 AM (12) Sep 22 82.0 (27.8) 75.0 (23.9) 29.99 (1015) ESE 7
7 AM (11) Sep 22 82.0 (27.8) 75.0 (23.9) 29.98 (1015) ESE 6
6 AM (10) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 75.9 (24.4) 29.95 (1014) ESE 8
5 AM (9) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 77.0 (25.0) 29.92 (1013) E 10
4 AM (8) Sep 22 80.1 (26.7) 77.0 (25.0) 29.91 (1012) E 16
3 AM (7) Sep 22 80.1 (26.7) 78.1 (25.6) 29.89 (1012) E 15 light rain with thunder
2 AM (6) Sep 22 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.92 (1013) E 25 light rain with thunder
1 AM (5) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 77.0 (25.0) 29.94 (1013) ENE 18 light rain with thunder
Midnight (4) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 78.1 (25.6) 29.96 (1014) NNE 10 thunder
11 PM (3) Sep 21 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.98 (1015) NNE 9 thunder
10 PM (2) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 77.0 (25.0) 29.99 (1015) NE 9
9 PM (1) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 77.0 (25.0) 29.99 (1015) NE 12
8 PM (0) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 77.0 (25.0) 29.97 (1014) ENE 8
7 PM (23) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 75.9 (24.4) 29.96 (1014) ENE 13
6 PM (22) Sep 21 84.0 (28.9) 75.9 (24.4) 29.95 (1014) ENE 12
5 PM (21) Sep 21 86.0 (30.0) 75.9 (24.4) 29.93 (1013) ENE 13
4 PM (20) Sep 21 87.1 (30.6) 75.9 (24.4) 29.92 (1013) NE 15
3 PM (19) Sep 21 88.0 (31.1) 75.9 (24.4) 29.92 (1013) ENE 16
2 PM (18) Sep 21 89.1 (31.7) 75.9 (24.4) 29.94 (1013) ENE 16
Oldest 1 PM (17) Sep 21 88.0 (31.1) 75.0 (23.9) 29.97 (1014) NE 16
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10470 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:07 pm

2 PM TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 87W/88W
FROM 17N TO 23N. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN COASTAL AREAS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST FROM
19N TO 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 40 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH GOES FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR
12N75W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N79W...AND BEYOND PANAMA NEAR 8N82W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 11N79W TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD SINCE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
GUADELOUPE YESTERDAY. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC WERE 0.57 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND 0.65 INCHES FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 9N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.95 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS
STILL ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME. RAINSHOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND
FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE
EAST OF 77W.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10471 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:48 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WIND
SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TS OPHELIA
XPCD TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER THIS EVENING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A TRADE WIND SURGE. A COUPLE OF
REALLY NICE DAYS EXPECTED ON FRI AND SAT WITH HARDLY ANY CONVECTION.
TS OPHELIA ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN THE NW TRACK
THAT WAS FCST BASED ON RECENT VIS IMAGERY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MON. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A COL
AREA ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE SUN WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THE STORM THEN PULLS NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS
ON MON ALONG 60W WITH SIG DRYING XPCD FOR MON-TUE. A NICE LIKE
LOOKING WAVE EAST OF 20W NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS FCST TO DEVELOP
INTO A TC DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AND TRACK ACROOS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
THE WAVE IS STILL AROUND 10 DAYS FROM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
BASED ON LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY. GFS SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM AS A ANOTHER STRONGLY SHEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE H85
AND H7 MB CIRCULATIONS WELL DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE CENTER.

ON THE LONG RANGE...LATEST VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES FCST FROM
THE GFS SHOW NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE)
OVERSPREADING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AROUND OCT 07. IF THIS FCST
VERIFIES WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSWING IN REAL TC ACTIVITY
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER OVR THE WRN CNTRL CARIBBEAN. BUT
UNTIL THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG SHEAR CYCLONES.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRI-SAT WITH SCT-NMRS TSRA RETURNING FOR SUN.


&&

.MARINE...SCEC IN EFFECT MOST WATERS DUE TO 20 KT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 89 80 90 / 30 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10472 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011

...OPHELIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10473 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:54 pm

Has started to move WNW as forecast and is weakening,so is good news for us in the NE Caribbean.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10474 Postby Macrocane » Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:10 pm

Interesting discussion up there, but we still have a long way to mid October so the models could change their solutions.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10475 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2011 5:24 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY STRETCHING A TROUGH IN
ITS WAKE. DURING THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTH ALONG 56 WEST. A SECOND
TUTT DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND
MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
UNTIL MID WEEK. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF OPHELIA HIGH PRESSURE RE-
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS
BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD NOW THROUGH MONDAY. OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 300 TO 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...BUT
WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE RESISTANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AHEAD OF IT. THIS MEANS THAT THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL STORM
OPHELIA COULD LINGER IN THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT AND THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED IN THE SOUNDERS HAS ENTERED THE AREA
AND BROUGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AS LOW AS 1.55 INCHES AT
SAN JUAN. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW MODERATELY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS THAT WILL
ALSO CAP CONVECTION FAIRLY LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPSTREAM
SOUNDING AT SAINT MARTEN FROM 23/00Z ALSO SUGGESTS THAT AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP IN A LAYER BETWEEN 4 AND 7 THOUSAND FEET
THAT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN LIMITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND LIKELY TOMORROW DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING IN
PATCHES. EXPECT OPHELIA TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
BUT STILL HURLING SWELL INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND
THEN THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT IN OUR NORTHEAST OUTER ATLANTIC ZONE AMZ710. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST NORTHWEST AND SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ITS FORWARD TRAVEL
MUCH AS IT DID FOR MARIA...BUT DRY AIR...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
TRAJECTORY...AND SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
KEEP HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN FROM DEVELOPING THAT COULD DRAPE SOUTH
OVER THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE IN THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM CLOSELY AS FORECASTS 3 OR MORE DAYS OUT
HAVE CONSIDERABLE ERROR. WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK MAY STILL VARY
CONSIDERABLY FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF TRADE
WIND FLOW UNTIL SATURDAY AND THE SUBSEQUENT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD.
THEREFORE ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FOCUS
OF THEIR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE ISLAND FROM
THE USUAL WESTERN INFLUENCE. THE SPEED AT WHICH OPHELIA LEAVES THE
AREA WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN AND IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN COME IN MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY MODELS
CALL FOR SEAS AROUND 10 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST LOCAL OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT THIS COULD INCREASE SHOULD OPHELIA
UNEXPECTEDLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH OR TURN MORE WESTERLY WHILE
PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC
AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 20 20 20 70
STT 89 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 70
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10476 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2011 2:32 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ENE OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TO NEAR 23.5N
70W BY SUN AND THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF THE AREA
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TS OPHELIA XPCD TO PASS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA MON MORNING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL THRU SAT
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. TRADES DIMINISH ON SUN WITH
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BECOMING STRONGER THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MON LOOKS LIKE AREA WILL
BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED IN THE PERIPHERY OF TS OPHELIA.

TS OPHELIA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA MON MORNING
ACCORDING TO THE 15Z NHC ADVZY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT OPHELIA COULD STALL NNE OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM BEING DELAYED
UNTIL NEXT TUE OR WED OR WHO KNOWS.

INVEST 90L SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LOOKS LIKE IT ALREADY HAS A
CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION ON VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT CONVECTION HAS NOT
PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO BE DECLARED A TD YET. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL SIX TO EIGHT DAYS FROM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA.
NHC/HPC COORDINATED POSITION AT 17Z WAS NEAR 17.0N 45W ASSUMING
THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEEP ENOUGH AND GETS PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN
THE CNTRL/ERN ATLC. BOTTOMLINE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK
BEYOND MON WITH BOTH OPHELIA AND INVEST 90L. BASICALLY WAIT AND
SEE GAME FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS AMZ710. OPHELIA RIGHT NOW
XPCD TO TRACK OUTSIDE OF OUR NE ATLC COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 50
STT 79 90 79 87 / 20 20 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10477 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:01 pm

5 PM Track.

Image
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#10478 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:47 pm

Yellow vigilance maintained for strong and dangerous sea

franceantilles.fr23.09.2011

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 139611.php

According to recent trajectory forecasts, Storm Ophelia should pass 280 km northeast of Guadeloupe, far enough that its impact is limited to sea conditions.

Tropical Storm Ophelia which stands currently at about 780 km South-East of Guadeloupe, is progressing slowly towards the West and generates a swell of East long and energy which will affect the Guadeloupean coast during the next two days. The sea is currently rough on the ocean front where average lows are of the order of 2 m 70. A strong sea is expected average troughs of the order of 2 m 80 to 3 m in the evening. The swell becomes more long and energy means hollow should then reach 3 m 50 to 4 m in the night and Saturday in the day, maximum waves that can reach 5-6 m. sea begin to depreciate on the night of Saturday to Sunday. According to recent trajectory forecasts, Storm Ophelia should pass 280 km northeast of Guadeloupe, far enough that its impact is limited to sea conditions.There is a risk of flood of large rolls on exposed coasts, mainly the Pointe des Châteaux in Anse-Bertrand, as well as on the coast of la Desirade and Marie-Galante. Navigation conditions are dangerous for small boats.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#10479 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:48 pm

Invest 90L up to 50%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re:

#10480 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:10 pm

Gustywind wrote:Yellow vigilance maintained for strong and dangerous sea

franceantilles.fr23.09.2011

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 139611.php

According to recent trajectory forecasts, Storm Ophelia should pass 280 km northeast of Guadeloupe, far enough that its impact is limited to sea conditions.

Tropical Storm Ophelia which stands currently at about 780 km South-East of Guadeloupe, is progressing slowly towards the West and generates a swell of East long and energy which will affect the Guadeloupean coast during the next two days. The sea is currently rough on the ocean front where average lows are of the order of 2 m 70. A strong sea is expected average troughs of the order of 2 m 80 to 3 m in the evening. The swell becomes more long and energy means hollow should then reach 3 m 50 to 4 m in the night and Saturday in the day, maximum waves that can reach 5-6 m. sea begin to depreciate on the night of Saturday to Sunday. According to recent trajectory forecasts, Storm Ophelia should pass 280 km northeast of Guadeloupe, far enough that its impact is limited to sea conditions.There is a risk of flood of large rolls on exposed coasts, mainly the Pointe des Châteaux in Anse-Bertrand, as well as on the coast of la Desirade and Marie-Galante. Navigation conditions are dangerous for small boats.


Gusty,also,for PR/VI there is a small craft advisory.


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...

.MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE KEEPING SEAS ROUGH. SEAS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

AMZ710-722-240515-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0128.110924T0700Z-110927T0700Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
509 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO
3 AM AST TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO
3 AM AST TUESDAY.

* WAVES: SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY...HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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