Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
156 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Subsidence up
front the tropical wave will generate a more stable and drier
conditions tonight across our local region. A strong Tropical
wave located in the central Atlantic is expected to move quickly
west across the atlantic and reach our local region Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will continue to enhanced
shower and thunderstorm development mainly across the NW portions
of Puerto Rico. Most of these showers and thunderstorms will
quickly dissipate this evening or move west and over the Mona
Passage.

A subsidence area up front a strong tropical wave will generate a
dry and stable conditions across the local region on Saturday. A
strong tropical wave now located about 1100 miles east of Puerto
Rico will continue to move quickly west, at about 25 mph, and
reach the eastern Caribbean early Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
could begin to affect the local area late saturday night due to
the large size of the leading edge. Models continue to suggest
large amounts of precipitable water associated to this wave,
suggested values of above 2.5 inches, therefore increasing the potential
for flooding to occur over isolated areas in PR and USVI. Also
another major impact associated to this weather feature will be
strong wind gusts mainly associated with thunderstorms and the
expected squally weather.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions across most of the terminals. Periods of
SHRA with possible VCTS expected for TJSJ. SHRA/TSRA and mtn
obscuration will continue across the interior and W PR with periods
of MVFR expected for TJMZ/TJBQ thru 22Z. Low level winds from the
east to southeast at 10-20 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 kts expected across
the local waters today. Marine conditions will quickly
deteriorate on Saturday night as a strong tropical wave moves
quickly across the local waters. Mariners should expect squally
weather across all local waters. Showers and thunderstorms will
generate low visibilities, lightning, choppy seas and strong gusty
winds. These marine conditions will prevail through at least
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 87 / 30 30 60 60
STT 80 92 79 88 / 30 30 60 60

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

96L:
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical wave extends from 12N23W to 19N26W moving W at 10 kt. A
1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
where global model data indicates a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity. The wave itself coincides with a low to mid level
trough extending northward to the immediate west of the Cape Verde
islands along 25N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N
between 21W-27W. This area has a medium potential for tropical
cyclone development during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
97L:
Tropical wave extends from 11N44W to 20N45W moving W at 20-25 kt.
The wave coincides with a relatively broad and amplified 700 mb
trough between 40W-52W and copious deep layer moisture noted in
SSMI Total Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer
data also indicates associated surface troughing with an area of
fresh trades on the northern portion of the surface trough from
14N-21N between 43W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N-16N between 42W-50W. As this wave moves W during the next
several days...the trades accompanied by potentially higher gusts
will move across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles and
waters surrounding the Turks and Caicos...SE Bahamas...and eastern
and central Cuba creating hazardous boating conditions.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 20-25 mph. Associated shower activity is
poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any
development should be slow to occur. Regardless of development,
this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the
wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could become more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and
a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south of
Cabo Verde continues to show signs of organization. Although this
system does not have a well-defined circulation at this time, some
development is still possible during the next day or two before the
disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central
tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
501 AM AST SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Subsidence ahead of the strong tropical wave near the
Lesser Antilles will generate a more stable and drier conditions
across the local islands today. The strong tropical wave located
around 52 west this morning is expected to move quickly to the
west across the Lesser Antilles and the Eastern Caribbean today
and reach the local region late tonight and Sunday. Showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds will create hazardous marine
conditions across the regional waters beginning this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated isolated to
scattered showers mostly across the surrounding coastal waters
overnight and early this morning, with some of them affecting the
eastern sections of Puerto Rico from time to time. A strong
tropical around 52 West this morning will continue to move
rapidly to the west or west northwest today. The subsidence
pattern associated with this feature is expected to produce drier
air across the local islands today. Latest satellite images
depicted this dry air just across the USVI this morning.

Our attention today is focus on a strong tropical wave which is
located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles early this
morning. The wave is moving westward rapidly, at 25-30 mph.
Regardless of development this system will likely bring showers,
thunderstorms and possible gusty winds across portions of the
USVI and Puerto Rico. At this forward speed and accordingly to the
global models, the leading edge of the system is expected to reach
the USVI late tonight and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Sunday as the
tropical wave moves across the local islands. The large moisture
envelope associated with the wave will continue over the area
through Monday so there is still a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Drier air is expected to moves across the
region behind the wave on Tuesday, before another tropical wave
reach the region Thursday and Friday, next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected today across most of the
local flying area. Periods of SHRA with OCNL VCSH expected for
TJSJ until 30/14Z. Increasing winds are expected today. After
30/16z shra will develop western and interior PR and along
Cordillera Central west of TJPS and moving WSW. Mtn obscurations
after there 30/17Z. MVFR to bcm likely after 30/18z at TNCM/TKPK
due to apchg trop wave and sct SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
this morning. Seas are expected to become hazardous this afternoon
across the offshore Atlantic waters and Anegada passage, then
spread across the offshore Caribbean waters, offshore Western
waters, the nearshore Atlantic waters and the waters surrounding
the USVI by tonight. A small craft advisory will go into effect
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 86 76 / 30 70 70 30
STT 92 80 86 77 / 30 70 70 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph. While the associated shower
activity has increased since yesterday, any additional development
should be slow to occur due to the rapid motion of the system.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea beginning later today.
By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the
western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Verde has become less organized during the past
24 hours. However, there is still a chance for some development
during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood Watch for PR/VI

FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1245 PM AST SAT JUL 30 2016

...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-310100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.160731T1000Z-160801T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST.THOMAS...ST. JOHN.. AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAN JUAN...CAROLINA...FAJARDO...
HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...SALINAS...
COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...MANATI...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...MAYAGUEZ...HORMIGUEROS...
MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...GUANICA...LAJAS...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
1245 PM AST SAT JUL 30 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

* THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING RAINS IS HIGH FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY
IN AREAS OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
305 PM AST SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Vigorous tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the forecast area
tonight into Sunday. This moist and unstable pattern will prevail
through at least Monday afternoon. Drier and more stable air mass
is expected Tuesday through early Thursday. Then...another
tropical wave will reach the local region producing another round
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a strong tropical wave
approaching the Leewards Islands this afternoon. A large area of
showers and thunderstorms accompanied this wave. Due to the rapid
movement of this feature...the leading edge of the wave will
likely reach the Anegada Passage and the U.S. Virgin islands later
this afternoon and tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
spread over Puerto Rico late tonight into Sunday. At this time...
the best moisture convergence and vorticity advection will move
over the local islands during the day on Sunday. Therefore...A
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin islands due to the high risk of flooding rains. The
watch is in effect from Sunday morning to Sunday night.

Although the tropical wave will move away from region on Monday
morning...residual moisture in the wake of the wave will keep the
atmosphere relatively unstable through at least Monday afternoon.
Conditions will improve on Tuesday as drier air will filter in
from the east. Weather pattern will remain generally tranquil
through Thursday. Then...Another tropical wave will bring showers
and thunderstorms over the local islands late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...An approaching tropical wave will increase SHRA and TSRA
activity across the waters and local islands thru Sunday. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS likely across the Leeward, USVI and E PR overnight and
Sunday morning, spreading to the W PR terminals by Sunday morning
and afternoon. Mtn obscurations likely. Windy cond expected at 10-20
kts with periods of gusts of 25-35 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly later this
afternoon into the evening hours as the tropical wave moves over
the regional waters. Seas will build to 6-8 feet and winds will
increase to around 20 knots with wind gust in excess of 30 knots
possible with the showers and thunderstorms. The most intense
thunderstorms are capable of producing strong gusty winds...
lightning strikes and locally higher waves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 86 76 88 / 80 80 80 50
STT 80 86 77 89 / 80 80 50 50

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward toward the Lesser
Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-
organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are
no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling
significantly at this time. This system has the potential for some
slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for
tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next
week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system
is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and
Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 500 miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde islands is poorly organized. This system is moving
slowly westward, and development appears to be unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
554 AM AST SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A strong tropical wave will bring very gusty winds
some heavy rains with flooding potential, thunderstorms, and hazardous
seas to the local area. Most of the effects will clear the area by
late Monday night, but some showers will continue through the week
with moderate trade winds continuing.

At upper levels...High pressure will pass just north
of the area carrying a brief surge in easterly winds Sunday. Then,
a strong low northeast of the area will carry a trough to Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands late Wednesday. High Pressure
returns to the Atlantic north of the local area by Friday night
and moves slowly west through the weekend.

At mid levels...A tropical wave will move through the area today
followed by disorganized trough that will squeeze the high
pressure to the north on Tuesday evening. High pressure will then
move from northeast of the area to cover the western Atlantic east
of the Bahamas through next weekend.

At lower levels...A vigorous tropical wave will move through the
area today followed by continued winds of 20 to 30 mph. After
winds subside a second wave will move through the area Thursday
night and Friday. During this time high pressure will continue
over the Azores flagging over the weekend and then regenerating
boosting trade wind flow in the local area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers began to come more frequently and with
windier gusts during the overnight hours. They moved through the
Leeward Islands first with gusts to as much as 33 knots. Gusts
also reached 20 to 25 kts in the U.S. Virgin Islands although
better gusts are expected this morning. Also buoy 41043 reported
gusts to 37 knots around 2 AM AST. The airport at San Juan
reported a gust of 28 mph just after 3 AM AST. Currently the
System continues to generate strong convection just west of the
Windward Islands and in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters north
and south of The U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico as it
moves at an estimated 30 mph. Maximum winds at 5-10 kft have been
observed to as much as 47 knots. Minor showers were seen over
other waters and as far southwest over Puerto Rico as the
northeast corner of Ponce.

Currently most of the convection in this system seem to be on the
western half just behind the upper air ridge line extending
southwest of Puerto Rico. Some of the models have also hinted
that the best convection may be around midday. Nevertheless a
strong area of divergence associated with the tropical wave will
move through Saint Croix and into Puerto Rico from the southeast
late this afternoon and further showers and thunderstorms are
expected then. This may also be when some of the day`s best
rainfall falls on the slopes of the southeastern mountains.
Rainfall is still not foreseen as strongly in the models as
previously forecast, in part because of the wide scattering of the
convection and due to the rapidity which the cells are passing.
Nevertheless the potential for flooding continues in very heavy
thunderstorms especially as heating and divergence aloft begin to
reinforce one another.

After the core of the moisture in the apex of the wave leaves the
local forecast area, another band of moisture is pulled out of the
southeast and crosses the U.S. Virgin Islands early Monday
afternoon, and Puerto Rico during the late afternoon and evening.
Dynamics are weaker though, but the potential for flooding may
actually increase due to antecedent rains across the area.
Therefore will extend the flash flood watch until Monday at 6 PM
AST and hold it until the extent of the moisture pulled in in the
system`s wake can be better ascertained.

Although drier air follows on Monday night, moisture at lower
levels comes back quickly to reach the coast of Puerto Rico by
sunrise Tuesday morning with scattered showers with light
amounts on the east coast and showers likely in El Yunque. This
appears to be associated with the advance of a mid level trough
into Puerto Rico followed closely by one in the western Atlantic.

The next significant wave will move through the area with less
intensity but decent moisture on Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...A tropical wave will continue to increase SHRA and TSRA
activity across the local flying area today and tonight. MVFR or
even IFR CIGS/VSBYS with SHRA/TSRA are likely across the Leeward,
USVI and E PR this morning. These conditions are expected to spread
to the West Puerto Rico terminals by mid morning and afternoon. Mtn
obscurations are expected. Windy conditions expected at 10-20 kts
with periods of gusts of 25-35 kts mostly near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have already climbed to 9.2 feet at the outer buoy
41043 this morning, and wave watch forecasts seas as high as 12
feet there. Have decided to go with seas in the Local Atlantic
waters as high as 10 feet, but models showed seas almost to 12
feet in places. Models seem to have a slightly high bias on the
winds with 27 to 34 knots in the local waters at times. Gusts
could easily reach this intensity and up to 40 knots, but
sustained winds will generally not exceed 25 knots except in a few
areas for brief periods of time. Although the models have the
strongest winds in our local Caribbean waters, winds will not be
much lower over our Atlantic waters either. This will in turn
generate rip currents on almost all coasts and some high surf is
expected on Puerto Rico`s central Atlantic coast. Due to the
possibility of even higher seas than forecast in localized areas
decided not to suppress the high surf advisory there even though
the waves will not be driving directly into the coastline.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 89 78 / 80 80 80 40
STT 88 78 89 79 / 80 70 70 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are
disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate
no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach
Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should
continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/759751830301585409

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in
organization this morning, and there are still no signs of a closed
surface circulation. Although some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next day or so, the chance for
tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches
the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This disturbance is
expected to cause locally heavy rains and gusty winds over portions
of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
and tonight. These conditions should spread westward across the
central Caribbean Sea and reach Hispaniola by Monday and Jamaica and
Cuba by Tuesday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
240 PM AST SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong tropical wave will continue to bring periods of
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the forecast area through
the overnight hours. This moist and unstable pattern will prevail
through at least Monday Afternoon. Drier and more stable air mass
is expected Tuesday through early Thursday. Then...another tropical
wave will reach the local region producing another round of showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery show a large area of
showers and thunderstorms accompanied this wave. This shower and
thunderstorm activity has been affecting most of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. The majority of the activity has been
focused over the north and east Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques
as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands so far today. As the
wave axis crosses Puerto Rico this evening...the wind will shift
from the southeast focusing the showers and thunderstorms over the
south and east Puerto Rico. The fast storm motion of these storms
will likely push some showers over the northern half of the island
during the evening and overnight hours. Therefore...A Flash Flood
Watch continues for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin islands
due to the high risk of flooding rains. At this time...The watch
is in effect until Monday afternoon.

Although the tropical wave will move away from region early Monday...
residual moisture in the wake of the wave will keep the atmosphere
relatively unstable through at least Monday afternoon. Conditions
will likely improve on Tuesday as drier air with some Saharan Dust
particles will filter in from the east. Weather pattern will remain
generally tranquil through early Thursday. Then...Another tropical
wave will bring showers and thunderstorms over the local islands
late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...A tropical wave will continue to produce SHRA and TSRA
with wind gusts of 30 mph or more and lightning across the local
flying area today and tonight. MVFR or even IFR CIGS/VSBYS with
SHRA/TSRA are likely across the Leeward, USVI and PR today. Mtn
obscurations likely. Windy conditions expected at 10-20 kts with
periods of gusts of 25-35 kts mostly near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue hazardous through at
least Monday as the tropical wave moves over the regional waters.
Seas of 6-8 feet and winds of 20 to 25 knots with wind gusts in
excess of 30 knots possible with the showers and thunderstorms.
The most intense thunderstorms are capable of producing strong
gusty winds...lightning strikes and locally higher waves. Conditions
will improve gradually late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 80 80 40 40
STT 78 89 79 90 / 70 70 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
533 AM AST MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Winds are diminishing as the tropical wave moves
further west away from the area, but moisture content of the
atmosphere is still quite high. Another tropical wave will move
into the area Thursday afternoon and pass through Friday.

At upper levels...High pressure over the waters just north of the
area will shift west allowing a weak trough to move over Puerto
Rico by Wednesday evening. High pressure returns to the area by
late in the week and continues through the weekend.

At mid levels...High pressure off the coast of Africa moves into
the subtropical central Atlantic by Thursday. An inverted trough
in the tropical Atlantic near 50 west longitude will move over the
area by early Wednesday. A tropical wave moves through on Friday
with limited moisture. Otherwise mid levels are dry until Monday
night of next week.

At lower levels...High pressure over the Azores stretches across
the Atlantic to north of the area around 30 degrees north
latitude. This ridge persists through the week shifting slightly
south late in the week. The next tropical wave is near 40 west and
will move into the area Thursday afternoon and pass through on
Friday with better shower activity but not as much wind as the
last wave. The next significant moisture arrives with an active
wave early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers abated considerably after sunset, but those
that crossed Puerto Rico late in the afternoon caused flooding of
the Guayanes river in Yabucoa, the Rio Grande de Loiza in San
Lorenzo and the La Plata in Comerio. All the rivers have since
subsided below flood stages.

Moderate showers continue in the southwestern portion of our
Caribbean waters and some are also approaching Saint John and
Saint Thomas. Others are over northeast Puerto Rico as they have
been running for much of this early Monday morning. The sounder in
Bayamon indicates that the precipitable water values are still
over 2.25 inches as the deep moisture continues around the slowly
organizing tropical wave south of Hispaniola in a wide arc that
currently touches the north tier of the Leeward Islands. This
moisture may still yet produce heavy rains during the daytime
heating cycle today over both eastern and, later this afternoon,
western Puerto Rico with no resistance in the upper levels in the
form of convergence aloft. Therefore will leave the flash flood
watch in place for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Nevertheless the potential for flash flooding has lowered
considerably in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Moisture reaches a minimum on Tuesday afternoon before rising
slowly and peaking Friday morning in the next tropical wave.
Unlike the previous wave which has shown signs of developing into
a tropical storm, this wave is no longer a good candidate for
development--at least for now. Moisture will then diminish for a
favorable weekend next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Weather conditions will improve as the strong tropical
wave continues to move away from the local flying area. VFR
conditions with VCSH will affect the Leewards/USVI TAF sites this
morning. Passing SHRA are expected across PR flying area today.
MVFR conds at times are possible with this activity thru at least
01/16Z. After 01/17Z, SHRA/TSRA will develop across western PR
affecting TJMZ/TJBQ. The latest 01/00z TJSJ sounding indicated
E-ESE winds at 10-30 kts fm the sfc to around 2 kft...30-40 kts
between 2-8 kft and up to 48 kts at 15 kft.

&&

.MARINE...Conditions are and will continue to show improvement
through Tuesday over the local waters. Some strong winds of 15 to
25 knots are still likely to manifest over the local inner waters
this afternoon and keep seas rough, but all small craft advisories
are expected to come down by Tuesday afternoon. Small craft
advisories may be needed again on Friday in the Atlantic waters
as seas approach 7 feet with the next tropical wave passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 50 30 20 30
STT 89 79 90 78 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
208 PM AST MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and more stable air mass will continue to spread
over the area during the next few days as tropical wave moved
into the Central Caribbean. The next tropical wave will reach the
local region late Thursday night into Friday...producing another
round of showers and thunderstorms. A second tropical wave will
move close to the local area on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier air mass with Saharan Dust particles has
filtered in across much of the forecast area. Some showers and a
thunderstorm or two may still develop over Northwest Puerto Rico
later this afternoon due to the orographic effects and the residual
moisture from the tropical wave. This stable pattern will prevail
across the much of the area through Thursday under the influence
of an upper level ridge. Although...afternoon showers can not
ruled out the coverage will be mainly isolated to scattered.

The next tropical wave will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms over the local islands late Thursday night into
Friday. On Saturday...a drier and subsidence air mass ahead of
the next tropical wave will encompass the region. Deep moisture
associated with a second tropical wave will reach the local region
between Sunday and Monday. MJO will improve late in the week and
next week...therefore the second wave will likely bring organized
convection to the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR cond expected tonight. SHRA/TSRA with
mtn obscurations expected over the interior and W PR thru 01/22Z.
ISOL -SHRA possible across USVI and E PR flying area overnight.
Low level winds from the east at 10-20 kts with higher gusts esp
near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas and winds will improve over the next few days as
tropical wave moves father west into the Central Caribbean. Seas
of 4-6 will prevail on Tuesday improving to 3-5 feet by midweek.
Conditions will deteriorate again on Thursday night into Friday as
the next wave approaches the regional waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 30 20 30 20
STT 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
524 AM AST TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moderate occasionally fresh trade winds will continue
across the local area, but air will be drier and
shower/thunderstorm activity will be limited to the west and
interior portion of Puerto Rico during the next several
afternoons. A modest tropical wave will move into the area
Thursday night with increased shower activity.

At upper levels...High pressure north of the Dominican Republic
will move west, allowing a weak trough to move over the area
Wednesday night. High pressure returns next weekend.

At mid levels...A weak low will move across the local area today.
Drier air will persist over the area except during the next two
tropical wave passages Thursday night through Monday.

At lower levels...High pressure persists over the Azores and
extends across the Atlantic waters north of the area for the
entire period. The next two tropical waves are expected to pass
through Friday and Sunday. The latter will be the strongest but
both will have increased shower and thunderstorm activity and
somewhat stronger winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It was mostly dry across the area overnight with
only one or two showers moving onshore on the east coast of
Puerto Rico. Drier conditions will persist the next several days,
especially at mid levels, until the next wave arrives Thursday
night into Friday. But showers and thunderstorms are still
expected to develop over the western and interior portions of
Puerto Rico due to residual low level moisture, local low level
convergence and strong instability generated by mostly clear skies
during the morning hours of both today and Wednesday.

The tropical waves expected appear to weaken considerably before
arriving. The GFS brings better moisture on Friday with the first
wave and little or no development is expected. The second wave is
stronger and should bring more winds and showers to the area. It
does not appear as strong as the wave that passes through Sunday
and its best moisture also is currently forecast to pass south of
the local area. A third wave is currently forecast the following
Tuesday and Wednesday, but is weaker than the one next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this morning. VCSH
can not be ruled out this morning, at TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK.
Mountain Obsc with SHRA/TSRA are possible over the interior and west
PR btwn 02/17-23z, to result in brief MVFR conditions at TJBQ/TJMZ.
E-NE winds below 10 kt increasing at 10-20kt with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations aft 02/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas raised by the passage of the tropical
wave on Sunday have diminished sufficiently to lower the small
craft advisories in all waters today. Seas at buoy 41043 are also
below 6 feet. Small craft advisories should not be necessary until
the passage of the wave on Sunday. Rip current risk is now low to
moderate at all beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 30 20 20
STT 90 80 89 79 / 20 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
214 PM AST TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Stable air mass will continue to dominate the area
during the next few days as a mid to upper level ridge remains
over the local region. The next tropical wave will reach the
local region late Thursday night into Friday...producing another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave will
move across the regional waters on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A generally drier air mass with Saharan Dust
particles is prevailing across much of the forecast area.
However...Some showers have been developed across portions the
San Juan Metro Area and portions of the West Interior and West
Puerto Rico so far this afternoon. This shower activity will
likely taper off near sunset.

The stable pattern will prevail across most of the area through
Thursday under the influence of an upper level ridge. Although...
afternoon showers can not ruled out the coverage will be mainly
isolated to scattered. Saharan dust concentrations will diminish
the rest of the work week...increasing again on Saturday.

A weak tropical wave will bring scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the local islands late Thursday night
into Friday Morning. On Saturday...a drier and subsidence air mass
ahead of the next tropical wave will encompass the region. Deep
moisture associated with a second tropical wave will likely reach
the local region on Sunday. This will lead to active weather
across the Caribbean Waters and portions of the islands late in
the weekend. Moisture will remain high through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR cond expected. HZ across the area will
continue to reduce visibilities. Thru 02/22Z, SHRA/TSRA with mtn
obscurations expected over the interior and W PR and SHRA across
TIST and E PR flying area, affecting TJSJ. Low level winds from the
east to southeast at 10-20 kts with higher gusts esp near
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions have improved significantly across
most of the regional waters. Seas of 2-4 feet and winds of 10-15
knots will prevail across the coastal waters. Seas up to 5 feet
are possible across the offshore waters. Marine conditions will
deteriorate somewhat on Sunday with the wave passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 30 20 20 20
STT 80 89 79 90 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST WED AUG 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level low will move westward into the Hispanola
today. Then, a mid to upper level high is forecast to build over
the region between late Thursday through the upcoming weekend. A
tropical wave is forecast to reach the local region by late
Thursday night into Friday. Followed by another tropical wave on
Saturday afternoon or Sunday. Between both waves, a dry air mass
with Saharan dust particles is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A relative dry air mass with Saharan Dust particles remained over
the region overnight. However, passing clouds with embedded
showers were detected across the local waters, eastern PR and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. For today, expect warm coastal temperatures
and sunny to partly cloudy skies with just a few passing showers
across the East half of PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but
nothing significant. Although, afternoon showers with isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out over the interior and Northwest
PR, the coverage of this activity will be confined to just those
areas due to the lack of moisture. The Saharan dust
concentrations will continue to diminish during the rest of the
work week...but, once again is expected to increase on Saturday.

A tropical wave will enhance somewhat the formations of showers
and thunderstorms by late Thursday night and into Friday. On
Saturday...a drier and subsidence air mass ahead of the next
tropical wave will encompass the region. Followed by an area with
deep moisture associated with another tropical wave, which is
forecast to produce squally weather across the Caribbean waters
and portions of the local islands by late Saturday and into
Sunday. At this time, the lingering moisture associated with this
wave is expected across the warning area until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected thru 03/12Z. VCSH can
not be ruled out this morning, at TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK, but
drier air will invade fcst area 03/16z-04/00z. Mtn obscurations with
SHRA/TSRA are possible over the interior and west PR btwn 03/17-23z,
to result in brief MVFR conditions at TJBQ/TJMZ. E-SE winds below
10 kt increasing at 10-15kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations aft 03/13z. Moisture moving into TNCM/TKPK aft 04/04z
will bring some VCSH/MVFR conds due to CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas should remain between 2 and 4 feet across the coastal waters
and up to 5 feet across the offshore waters. However, marine
conditions are expected to slowly deteriorate during the weekend,
with the arrival of the tropical wave.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 81 85 80 / 10 20 20 50
STT 83 80 84 80 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL RESUMES A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS AND
BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning may be required for the Bay
Islands of Honduras later this morning.