Caribbean - Central America Weather

[bvigal]

It's 5pm, and we haven't had one drop of rain since sun-up. The haze increased shortly after my last post. St. Croix airport reported haze today, while St. Thomas never did. But I know it's as hazy there as it is here!

[cycloneye]

No rain at all in San Juan today.Hazy here too with warm temps.

[bvigal]

Good morning neighbors!

Hazy, breezy, and lazy describes this beautiful Caribbean morning! That means no rain, and a great day at the beach with winds to keep you cool. We had no rain overnight. Somewhere between 1 and 3am it got very windy, probably the surge following the wave. Temp 82, winds E/SE 12-16mph, dewpoint 72, pressure 1019 hPa.

Luis, maybe we could extend the title to incude Windwards, then a Bajan "abajan" could also post. After all, he will usually get the weather we do, one day earlier! The Eastern Caribbean islands may be stretched across a lot of water, but it's a close-knit "neighborhood".

For those who may not have visited that stunningly beautiful island, Bajan is the name for people of Barbados, like Floridian is for people from Florida.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow members in the Eastern Caribbean.Hazy skies are the rule also in Puerto Rico.A moderate warm SE breeze this morning is blowing here.Bvigal,included the Windwards at title.

[msbee]

good idea to include the Windwards.
we're all neighbors!
still very hazy and cloudy here too with a stiff breeze!

[cycloneye]

Good morning neighbors in the Ne Caribbean.This thursday morning it a bit windy with a NE wind.Hazy skies are still upon us with small clouds.But changes are instore for sunday and monday as a tropical wave will move thru.

THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 35 W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR LOCAL REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEREFORE
STARTED TO INTRODUCED ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

The above is part of this morning's discussion from the San Juan NWS.

[caribepr]

I'll believe it when I see it here Luis Yesterday was really gusty, as is today. The umbrella flew off its stand a few times (even when it was tied down!), in between times of no breeze at all. Thankfully, no cars or people were passing by - but it did look sort of cool...flying across the street inside out. Hopefully it won't leap over the bridge - then we'll be having some fun!

[cycloneye]

Yes Mj,you are right about believe it when we see it as the past 2 waves haved fizzeled while moving thru our area.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 062015
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 PM AST THU JUL 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD...NORTH OF THE AREA AND JOIN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH BUILDS SOUTHWEST TOWARD PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND
NEAR 34 NORTH AND 57 WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADS WEST DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND SPREADS INTO A BROAD EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AROUND 30 NORTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT IS FOLLOWED BY
MODESTLY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. A SECOND AND STRONGER
WAVE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM A MINIMUM SATURDAY EVENING TO A MAXIMUM ON MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH WAVES SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY GENERATORS OF
WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT AS WELL.
FIRST THE WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT AT MID LEVELS
WILL AID THE WAVE PASSAGE AND COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATER. THEN THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN TURN
WILL REDUCE THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND BUT
INCREASE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO VARY WITH FLOW CHANGES. MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT
THE LACK OF COOLING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN
LOWERED DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE...TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWER-INDUCED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-COOLED LAND. MAXIMUMS WERE RAISED
ONLY IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST NOTABLY IN
SAINT THOMAS WHERE A LAND BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS PUSHED
THE HIGH TO 91 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER. DRYER WEATHER APPEARS TO FOLLOW THE
WAVE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MOISTURE
REMAINS SOUTH WHERE THE GFS HINTS AT YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING FLOW AROUND A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS KEEPING WIND WAVES AT LEAST 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE PASSAGES WILL PRODUCE HIGH
SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION IN ALL BUT OUR SHELTERED WESTERN WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...HAZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WAVES SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF...BUT DRIER AIR IS
LIKELY TO CARRY MORE DUST FROM THE SAHARA NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRIDAY AND MONDAYS
WAVES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.



Good afternoon to our neighbors in the Eastern Caribbean islands. What a long discussion this afternoon from the San Juan NWS.I like when they do these long discussions that go into every detail about what to expect.

Reading from the discussion it looks like a wet late sunday going into Monday as a wave will move thru followed by the hazy and dry period normally after a wave passage occurs.Nothing important to report from San Juan today except for winds from the ENE between 15-20 mph and hazy skies.

[caribepr]

I judge the dust/ash ratio to the color of what I sweep up. Today was dust on the window sills (orange) and ash on the floor of the porch where I work on Thursdays. I never talk much about rain this time of year...just grateful when I don't have to water the gardens and hold my breath for the other stuff
It WAS a great discussion!!

[bvigal]

Good morning from the BVI! We had/are having beautiful widely-scattered soaking rain showers, as the earth and air are refreshed from the parch! Birds are singing, frogs are chirping, sun is shining in between, it's a lovely morning!! Temp 81, pressure 1019hPa, DP 71, wind E at 8kt.

Luis, thanks for posting that excellent discussion from NWS yesterday!

MJ, I like your description of the dust, LOL! You shouldn't need to water the garden this morning.

[caribepr]

Drat, I just finished watering the garden! It looked all dark and shimmery to the south but nada for rain. Right now it is sunny, hardly any breeze and hazy, as usual lately...
I'll be waiting for the rain, but I'm going to open the cart anyway

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 070959
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST FRI JUL 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
EAST WILL COMBINE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION...SO
SHOULD SEE HAZY SKIES BETWEEN SHOWERS TODAY.

LATEST GFS STILL INDICATING THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
NEAR 45W AND 12N...FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS
WAVE SHOULD BRING WITH IT AND INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...STRONG
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. CURRENT FORECAST COVERED ALL THIS
WELL...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
MORNING.


Good morning to the members in the Eastern Caribbean.

This mornings discussion is much shorter but goes to the meat of what we can expect in the next few days.A few brief showers moved thru the San Juan metroflex overnight moved by the trades.Let's see how that weak trough to our north causes more shower activity today.And let's watch that wave for late Sunday and Monday.

[cycloneye]

UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AT 23 NORTH JUST NORTH OF SAN
JUAN HAS DEVELOPED MORE THAN EXPECTED AND IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG A SPIRAL BAND OF MOISTURE. SOUNDING AT 12Z SHOWS VERY GOOD
MOISTURE NEAR ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND MINUS 6.7 LIFTED INDEX. WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL DRYING
NOTED THIS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD CONVECTION BEGINNING LATE MORNING
OVER MANY AREAS AND WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. SUNY
ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT 00Z WHICH INCREASES AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH
TOWARD PUERTO RICO. THIS AND CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE EULERIAN
MASS MODEL THROUGH 21Z TOMORROW SUGGEST INCREASED POPS TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY THEN CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
FIT THIS PATTERN WHICH IS NOT INCOMPATIBLE WITH GFS RENDERING OF
FORECAST SOLUTION. NEW ZONES WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.


This is an update from the San Juan NWS about the trough and it's effects.

Guys,it looks like a somewhat wet period ahead with troughs and waves in our area in the next few days.In San Juan we haved been thru scattered showers around early to mid-morning with clearing by noon.But radar shows popcorn type showers in the Virgin Islands moving from East to West.

[caribepr]

We had a very hard rain this morning, making Lake Island Woman around the cart. I kept it open for awhile, then black clouds and rain, and then sunny, beautiful blue skies (haze washed out for a bit) with fantastic cloud formations...now debating opening the cart up again...Sheesh!

[cycloneye]

TJSJ 072000
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST FRI JUL 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 24 NORTH WILL DRIFT WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...PULLING A BAND
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW IN
BASICALLY THE SAME PATH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN WEAKLY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST
DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
BEGINNING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH ALONG 50 WEST DURING
THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK WAVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WEST
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO INVADE THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS
COATTAILS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ALL FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MARCH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEW SHOWERS ARRIVING OVER SAINT THOMAS AND
EAST OF SAINT CROIX. GOOD SOUNDING TODAY PROVIDED THE NEEDED
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL WAVES COME ACROSS MONDAY
MORNING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH TIMING IS APPROXIMATE. THE GFS
MOVES THESE WAVES UP A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE VERTEX NEAR PUERTO
RICO EACH TIME. SOME OF THE WAVES HAVE GOOD MOISTURE. DRIER
PERIODS INTERVENE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...THE WAVE WATCH MODEL HOLDS SEAS STEADY IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY AT AROUND 5 FEET IN OUTER WATERS.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEAS RISE...MODELS HAVE AS MUCH AS 10
FEET...BUT SUSPECT THAT 8 FEET WILL BE THE HIGHEST SEAS SEEN IN
THE AREA THEN. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY MOST
OF THE WAVES MENTIONED EARLIER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
WILL ALSO BE FLYING OVER MOST OF OUR WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZE WILL LIKELY RETURN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND NO REAL RELIEF IS SEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS WILL
DRAG VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 6 TO 10 MILES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BELOW ABOUT 10 THOUSAND FEET. EACH WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL HAVE HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VISIBILITIES DURING WAVE PASSAGES WILL BE
BETTER BETWEEN SHOWERS THAN DURING DRIER PERIODS.


Good afternoon fellow Eastern Caribbean members.Above is the discussion about to expect this weekend and next week with the troughs and waves that will be moving thru the Eastern Caribbean.

It was a breezy day here with temps in the high 80's and some scattered showers.

[caribepr]

What started as a gentle rain around 4:30 is now lashing down hard, wind swiching back and forth (actually had to close the door, which I never close). Lightning, thunder and a very dark dawn. No watering the gardens today.
Yesterday gave the most incredible show of clouds, all day, ending with a sunset spectacular. What a beautiful place!

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080934
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SAT JUL 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THIS
LOW TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECT A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...BEFORE A TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 50W...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING RETREATS TOWARDS THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASED
WINDS...SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE ON SATELITTE NEAR 30W
THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS WAVE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WEATHER WITH
THIS FEATURE IF CURRENT GUIDANCE PANS OUT. CURRENT FORECAST
INCREASES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO COVER THIS FEATURE.




Good morning fellow Eastern Caribbean members.

First I have to inform all that this thread was moved into Weather Attic forum by adminstration request as this thread is for daily observations.But once something big threats the Eastern Caribbean I will make a thread about reports from the islands.

This early morning a heavy shower falled in San Juan,maybe the same shower that went to Culebra MJ.As you can see by the discussion,more rain is on tap and for next week as a couple of waves will pass thru so prepare for a fairly wet few days ahead.

[caribepr]

I noticed we are in the Attic now! That's okay, I like the view Right now it is still and cloudy. And almost chilly!! (at least to me)

[bvigal]

Yes, here we are! I don't promise I'll post daily obs, just notable conditions.

That ULL to our north is starting to look pretty good from the standpoint of generating a lot of convection. Just had another round of quick thunderstorms through here, so Luis & MJ, get ready. Only one good clap of thunder. Radar shows dry to our east. It's a bit hazy, so maybe some sort of dust in the mix.