Caribbean - Central America Weather: (Watching INVEST 91L)

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bvigal
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#41 Postby bvigal » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:45 pm

Thanks for the report Barbara, I will pass that along to marine interests here. The radar just doesn't look that bad (velocity), other than a lot of rain, and pretty good coverage.

But it's the wind that gets people in trouble. We already had a couple of boats needing help since midnight! I bet US Coast Guard over in PR is going to have 4 or 5 very busy shifts! Hope they don't have to break out the helo in these winds.

Yes Luis, you probably have a good view of what's coming. Could you snap a couple of pics for us of those tall clouds???
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#42 Postby bvigal » Tue Jun 13, 2006 1:10 pm

I tried to take some pics, but can't see much it's so dark and low clouds, and really can't tell how much the trees are bending around. So.... after putting the pics on the computer, I did find one worth sharing. It's not weather, though, so off topic. Will post it over in Off Topic forum.
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 1:42 pm

First brief shower passed thru my area quickly.But El Yunque rain forest mountain is not seen as a heavy shower is there moving my way.Winds haved been in the 14-20 mph sustained range with some gusts of 30-32 mph at my anemometer.
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#44 Postby bvigal » Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:02 pm

OK, well wind or no wind, etc, I'm headed down the hill to town. If I gather anything of interest through the grape-vine, will post before dinner.

By the way, just heard another charter boat hollerin' on CH16 for help as they ripped out their sails and somehow have no steerage ?? You know, when people use 4 days traveling to spend 6 on a charter sailboat (Hey! It's a rental!!), they are loathe to alter plans due to weather, until it becomes a safety issue. tsk-tsk.
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#45 Postby caribepr » Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:caribepr,I would like to see how Culebra is going thru today as the strong wave moves thru that beautiful island.


Luis, I just got home...closing the cart for the second time today. The gusts were/are strong enough to flip my sturdy umbrella inside out, knocked a sign down into the water, blew over my outdoor table and chairs in the gazebo. It's raining slightly now, and the winds are calming but since that's happened about 12 times today...I'm not counting on it lasting - even typing this, they are picking up again.
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#46 Postby Janice » Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:23 pm

It rained hard here and had a little wind. It has stopped now and the sun is out again.
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#47 Postby Dustin » Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:32 pm

Is there any chance for this system to develop?
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#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:11 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST TUE JUN 13 2006

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-140300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0004.060613T1849Z-060614T0600Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
249 PM AST TUE JUN 13 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY.

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY AND IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS HIGHER
THAN 25 MPH OVER THE SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR AND
REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC MADE THESE VALUES EVIDENT. WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

$$

RIVERA






A wind advisory is now in effect.
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#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:15 pm

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST TUE JUN 13 2006

AMZ720-730-740-132200-
/X.NEW.TJSJ.MA.S.0013.060613T1821Z-060613T2200Z/
ATLANTIC NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MOUTH OF RIO GUAJATACA EASTWARD TO
CABO SAN JUAN THEN EASTWARD TO CULEBRA ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS OUT TO 100 FATHOM LINE.-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF THE EASTERN COASTS FROM CABO SAN JUAN TO PUNTA
VIENTO N OF 17N AND W OF 64W INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA VIENTO TO PUNTA
MELONES AND OUTSIDE OF 12NM OF WEST COAST FROM PUNTA MELONES TO
PUNTA CADENA EAST OF 68W AND N OF 17N-
221 PM AST TUE JUN 13 2006

...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED. THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS WHICH MAY REACH 40 MPH. IN
ASSOCIATION TO THIS SEAS ARE BECOMING VERY ROUGH POSING A HAZARD
TO MARINE INTERESTS.

IN ADDITION...THE HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

WHILE IN THE WATER MAKE SURE YOU AND ALL YOUR CREW USE APPROVED
FLOTATION DEVICES ALL THE TIME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

$$

RIVERA


bvigal and caribepr,you will be interested to read the marine advisory.
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:36 pm

Here at San Juan,it started raing heavy with thunder around 3:45 PM with gusty winds in which I clocked a gust of 34 mph.The heavy rain has tapered off but only a light drizzle is falling at the moment.
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#51 Postby msbee » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:37 pm

Luis, it comes in waves. be prepared for the next blast!
all quiet here now finally!
Barbara
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#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:48 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ710-720-740-750-132230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0031.060613T2026Z-060613T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 PM AST TUE JUN 13 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE...
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST OF 66 DEGREES WEST AND THE
NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 4:24 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WELL SOUTH OF MONA ISLAND...NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
WELL NORTH OF ARECIBO. THIS LINE WAS RACING WEST NORTHWEST AT 35
KNOTS AND WILL +CONTINUE WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 6 PM.

MARINERS ACROSS THIS AREA CAN EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 60
KNOTS...VERY HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE IN TORRENTIAL RAINS. BOATERS
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 1603 6703 2008 6553 2014 6765 1642 6852





Very squally weather in the waters.Wow 40-60kts.
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#53 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:52 pm

wow, that is like a TS over the water there! Hopefully most mariners will try to not venture out into this!
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#54 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:55 pm

I would be VERY surprised if this becomes Beryl, much less a depression, at least in the short term. Shear is VERY high over the system, which barely has ANY signs of a developing low or circulation center. Even though shear is decreasing over and ahead of it, it is only decreasing slightly, as well-indicated by water vapor, visible, and infra-red imagery. This is little more than typical, though powerful, squally flareup activity for this time of year associated with a trough and naked wave axis.
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#55 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:56 pm

This shear is much higher then it was last year already...The tutt is fairly strong...More when I get back by next weekend.
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#56 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:57 pm

I would not be surprised at all. I think in 2-3 days this thing has a very good chance of at least reaching depression level.
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#57 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:59 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I would not be surprised at all. I think in 2-3 days this thing has a very good chance of at least reaching depression level.


I said it does not have much, if any, chance for development in just the SHORT term. Over the longer term, there may be a slightly better chance of development in the western to central Caribbean, but only if it survives and maintains a distinct wave signature and axis.
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#58 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:00 pm

Dustin wrote:Is there any chance for this system to develop?


The NHC said that currently development is not anticipated at this time.
If you don't beleive me go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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#59 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:03 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
Dustin wrote:Is there any chance for this system to develop?


The NHC said that currently development is not anticipated at this time.
If you don't beleive me go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
that TWO is not even mentioning the current Carrib. wave. It is talking about the second wave further east. I can't wait to see what their next TWO says in 30 mins.
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#60 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:06 pm

Ok folks,move your thoughts about future action to other threads and let's leave this one free for information about what is going on in Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands and the Leewards.
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