Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track for 95L:

AL, 95, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 164N, 575W, 25, 1010, DB

Text of 00z Best Track:

At 0000 UTC, 28 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.4°N and 57.5°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 295 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.

[cycloneye]

...HANNA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

REMNANTS OF HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

The circulation of Hanna no longer appears to be well defined
based on satellite imagery and surface observations. Since the
cyclone center has dissipated, this will be the final advisory on
the remnants of Hanna.

While cloud top temperatures have warmed markedly near the earlier
estimated center location, heavy rainfall remains a significant
threat. The remnants of Hanna could produce 3 to 5 inches (75 to
125 mm) of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches (230
mm), across Honduras and northern Nicaragua. These rains could
produce flash flooding and mud slides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[BZSTORM]

On a different note just saw this on BBC news - UK Met to build supercomputer to enable models to run hurly instead of every 3 hours supposed to be online by Sept next year - so half way through the 2015 hurricane season but will be interesting to see how the UK model runs after this huge upgrade. http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29789208

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL COLLAPSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS...THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS.

UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS A RESULT OF LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. ALTHOUGH...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LINGER TODAY...
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED WEST OF 70W. BASED ON NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GUIDANCE...DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATED JUST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
ASSOCIATED BULK OF MOISTURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THEREFORE...A WETTER TREND IS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AS THE WETTEST DAY. EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND RISING MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO CANT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY IN AND AROUND TKPK/TNCM TODAY...CAUSING AT
LEAST MVFR CONDS. VCSH FOR PR AND USVI IN THE MORNING WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SW-PR. NO TEMPO ON TJMZ TAF ATTM
SINCE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL STAY JUST
OUTSIDE THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...EXPECT TSRA FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PR AFTER 28/17Z. MVFR CONDS FOR TJMZ AND TJPS SHALL NOT
BE RULED OUT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 28/12Z...BECOMING E-NE
THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 17 KT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS THEN DIMINISH WED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS.
SEAS BUILD 3-5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.
SEAS THEN SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 10 40 40 30
STT 82 75 89 77 / 10 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This
system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacant areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat
favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant
redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize
and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for
redevelopment after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Texts of 18z Best Track for 95L and 96L.

95L:

At 1800 UTC, 28 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.1°N and 60°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.

96L:

At 1800 UTC, 28 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL96) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.5°N and 86.7°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 310 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE NEAR LEEWARD ISLANDS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/WRF/HRW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TAKING IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI AND SEE NO REASON TO
THINK IT MIGHT NOT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MODELS IS BEING
DRIVEN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH/LOW. ALSO THE MOISTURE APPEARS
TO BE DETACHING FROM THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO
DRAG BEHIND ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT BETTER
THAN IT WAS IN THE PAST WEEK BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY RAISE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD
WITH EXTREMELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE 1-2
DEGREES ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MAINLY NORTH SIDE OF PR WITH
WEAK TRADE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY IN AND AROUND TKPK/TNCM THRU THE FCST PERIOD
CAUSING AT LEAST MVFR CONDS...VFR ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE VCTS/VCSH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD IN AND AROUND TISX/TIST/TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WAVE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR DRIVING ANY SWELL INTO COASTAL WATERS.
RELIED ON SWAN FOR POSSIBLE 6 FEET IN NORTHEAST CORNER OF AMZ710
TOMORROW MORNING BUT EVEN THAT BACKS OFF VERY SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT
WE HAD. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 87 / 40 40 30 50
STT 80 88 80 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W. THE LOW IS MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[BZSTORM]

Well watching what is left of 96L heading towards where I live on radar (where you see independence on the radar map is opp the peninsula) and all we have so far is steady light rain since 6.30pm'ish and hardly no breeze if it 5kts I'd be surprised. No distant thunder, no lightening so at the moment this is just a reg rain event for us in Southern Belize.

ok now this is odd, we are getting scent of sulphur on the occasional puffs of breeze - like boiled eggs smell - not the usual decaying seaweed smell we had for months back in Aug, very odd no idea what is causing it.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WED NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE CNTRL
CORDILLERA...USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS OVERNIGHT ON NORTHEAST FLOW
AND THEN ON THE SOUTH COAST AND USVI WED AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG
OVER VALLEYS. STEERING FLOW BECOMES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THU AS
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH SJU METRO AREA MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR CONVECTION ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. IT WILL ALSO BE HOT WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY UNDER
DEEP LAYERED SSE FLOW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE WEST
OF THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WX.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE COMBINES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO MAY OBSERVE THE MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THAT AREA
WHICH WILL THEN CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND WITH
IT WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2
INCHES AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP AT 850MB WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 340 DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A NICE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH FOR A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRIDAY WITH A LESS ACTIVE DAY. EVEN THOUGH
A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND...AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ALL CONVECTION...SO AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY OBSERVE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...ONCE AGAIN CAUSING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND NOT AFFECT PR OR
THE USVI DIRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JSJ... USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER 29/16Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER
AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JPS THROUGH
29/22Z. NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AND HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT AND WED BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS
2-4 FT BECOMING 2-3 FT THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 76 / 40 30 50 40
STT 88 77 88 78 / 50 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure extending from near the northern Leeward
Islands northeastward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are currently marginally conducive, and some
development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[BZSTORM]

Update from Belize, well as you all noticed the radar crashed before landfall (its been doing this every time it rains allot recently they need to get a grip on this). Rained constant all night on the Placencia peninsula (not really too much rain no flooding in my yard this morning unlike last week) But just got message from my BZ Met friend that rain started in BZ City about 6:30am and has not stopped yet they measured 33.7mm since 6:30am (message sent me was 9.30am) they Expect a similar scenario for Thursday. Moist northeasterly and favorable upper environment will keep the coastal showers coming especially later tonight through the morning. They are working on getting the radar back up as well this morning. Certain mayan sites are closed in North country near Guatemala due to rivers (which ferries access the sites) at full flow and rising. Not heard of any other major flooding as yet.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure has formed just north of the Leeward
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are particularly
conducive, some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation
while the system turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N60W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LOW TO NEAR 15N64 IN THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WITH A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SW OF THE LOW...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCES THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN
MEDIUM. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 29 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.3°N and 63.1°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 290 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD UNTIL THURSDAY BEFORE LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS PR/USVI. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PUSHED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE
FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITHOUT
AFFECTING DIRECTLY OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN THE ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONAL UNSTABLE...ENHANCING
SOMEWHAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY AND THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...CHANGING THE FOCUS OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PR. THEN...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE WEEKEND...
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ/JSJ...
USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
29/16Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JPS THROUGH 29/22Z. NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT UNTIL SUNDAY. SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEN...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WAVE HEIGHT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 6-8 FT FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PR AND USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 89 / 40 50 40 40
STT 77 88 78 88 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just to the
northeast of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch