National Weather Service San Juan PR
411 AM AST Tue May 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper-level ridge will hold over the region
through Thursday, resulting in a relatively stable weather pattern
for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions are
forecast to become unsettled late this week into early next week
as a polar trough moves near the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
High pressure over the central Atlantic at lower levels will
continue to generate moderate--locally fresh--trade winds through
the period that will carry shallow patches of moisture across the
area at fairly regular intervals for night and morning showers in
eastern Puerto Rico and around the U.S Virgin Islands and
afternoon showers in western Puerto Rico during each afternoon.
The atmosphere will be generally dry above 12 thousand feet today
limiting showers. A weak short wave trough at upper levels will
cause weakness in the mid level pressures and cooling of several
degrees C on Wednesday which will increase the chances of
thunderstorms over western Puerto Rico during the afternoon.
Little change at any level is foreseen at this time for
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
Current model guidance continues to depict an unsettled weather
pattern for most of the region on Monday through Tuesday, with
moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms. The deep
tropical moisture will yield urban and small stream flooding and
ponding of water on roadways for many areas. However, before the
deep tropical moisture reaches our area on late Sunday night
through Tuesday, a fairly active weather pattern is expected
Friday through Sunday, with showers across eastern and northern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours,
then showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms across the
interior and western areas of Puerto Rico during the afternoon.
The GFS and ECMWF move a polar trough into the western Atlantic
waters on Friday, the polar trough will weaken the mid-level ridge
and cause the winds to become lighter and veer to the east to
southeast. Convection that develops during the afternoon will move
slowly due to the lighter wind flow across the region; at this
time deep convection is not expected due to the dry mid to upper-
levels of the atmosphere. The GFS cross-section shows the
relative humidities ranging from 15 to 30 percent from 500 to 250
mb. The dry layers should limit the vertical growth of showers and
limit the development of deep convection during the afternoons.
Monday and Tuesday, The GFS keeps the base of the polar trough to
the southwest of Hispaniola which will cause upper-level divergence
across Puerto Rico which leads to upward motions which will aid in
the vertical development of thunderstorm. The GFS and ECMWF has 500
mb temperatures cooling to minus 8 degrees Celsius on Monday and
Tuesday. An easterly perturbation moving across the southern
Caribbean waters coupled with deep tropical moisture and great
instability will create favorable conditions for the development
of deep convection across most of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. The GFS shows precipitable water reaching 2.2 inches,
which will rank near the 99th for the month of May. Therefore, we
expect urban and small stream flooding and ponding of water on
roadways during the beginning of the work-week.
On Wednesday, deep moisture and modest instability will remain
across the region and aid in the development of deep convection
during the afternoon over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Urban and small stream flooding and ponding of water on roadways
is expected from showers and isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conds to prevail across the forecast area. Sct SHRA
across NE PR thru 04/15Z and dvlpg SHRA across wrn PR aft 04/16Z
will cause brief MVFR and mtn obscurations. Some SHRA will affect
TJMZ. Sfc winds less than 10 knots in land breezes bcmg aft 04/14Z
12-18 kt and higher gusts with sea breeze influences. Max winds NW
35-45 kt btwn FL360-480.
&&
.MARINE...A northerly swell will cause seas to increase to 6 feet
across the offshore Atlantic waters and promote a high risk of
rip currents for the northwestern to central beaches of Puerto
Rico. Seas up to 5 feet expected elsewhere and winds up to 20 kts
for some of the local waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 20 60 40 30
STT 88 75 88 76 / 30 40 30 20