Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST FRI NOV 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROFINESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TROFINESS AND APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH SATURDAY AS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...EXPECT FAST MOVING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH SATURDAY AS THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS
WITH TROUGH ALOFT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHARP INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH VALUES NEAR 2.45 INCHES ON SATURDAY
WHICH IS +2STD. AS MATTER OF FACT....PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH
A SECOND PEAK NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON TUESDAY.

THEREFORE...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SPREADING
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY...
UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT BEST SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREAS SURROUNDING TNCM/TKPK TODAY...AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST...MAKING IT TO TIST/TISX THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS
PR LATE TONIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CLOUDS CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AT AROUND NOON WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS PR. VCTS LIKELY AND TEMPO TSRA POSSIBLE AT TJPS
AND TJMZ AFTER 06/17Z. WINDS FROM THE ENE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT AROUND 15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND SEAS
FROM THE EAST TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS 5 TO 7
FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 9 FEET AND EASTERLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ALOFT...AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE AND SATURATED SOILS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. WETTEST CONDITIONS WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 86 79 / 40 50 70 50
STT 89 77 85 79 / 50 60 70 60

[cycloneye]

8 AM AST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from near the
Lesser Antilles eastward for several hundred miles is associated
with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a west-
northwestward moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are currently
not conducive for development. However, environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable late in the weekend, when the
system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto Rico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[msbee]

Thank you Luis
Please keep us updated!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI NOV 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROF PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THRU AT LEAST MONDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT ESTABLISHES OVER AND
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
THRU THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH RAINFALL ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES OVER CABO ROJO. A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED FROM TIME TO TIME
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE REST OF MAINLAND PR. FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE AS TROPICAL WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
AFFECTING EARLY ON THE USVI AND EAST/SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR.

AS WAVE INTERACTS WITH TROUGH ALOFT ON SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AND
INTO THE REST OF THE ISLANDS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND FLASH FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH THRU THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE HINDERED BY
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND THIS COULD OFFSET AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN HIGH
AS GOOD INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS SEEM TO
DRY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER NEXT EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY. AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND TRADE WINDS RETURN
IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREAS SURROUNDING TNCM/TKPK TODAY...AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST...MAKING IT TO TIST/TISX THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS
PR LATE TONIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CLOUDS CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS THRU 07/22Z WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS PR. CONDS TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFT 07/06Z USVI
AND 07/10Z PR. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS
ALF FL024 TO FL110 ENE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BCMG BY 07/12Z 20 TO 33
KNOTS....TURNING SOUTHEAST AND DECRG BY 07/18Z TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE RELATIVELY STRONG AND ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SURFACE BEGINNING TOMORROW. WILL INCREASE
SEAS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE WETTEST CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE UNLIKELY BEFORE 6 AM
AST...07/10Z...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON THE EASTERN SLOPES.
THEREFORE FLOODING IS ALL BUT RULED OUT BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND SO WILL NOT PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BUT SHOULD LATER MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FROM CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES...IT MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING EXTREME VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 88 / 90 90 60 70
STT 75 85 75 87 / 80 80 80 60

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been activated for Martinica this afternoon like Guadeloupe for a risk of very strong showers and tstorms.
Note that yellow alert have been activated for Northern Leewards.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[cycloneye]

7 PM AST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern
Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the Atlantic is
associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a
west-northwestward moving tropical wave. Development, if any,
during the next day or two should be slow to occur. However,
environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
by early next week, when the system is forecast to be near
Hispaniola or the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Gustywind]

Numerous damages have been reported in Martinica as floodings very impressive.
Looks like this event should be on Guadeloupe tonight or tommorow. Let's hope that nothing bad happens in the butterfly island and thus in Dominica! Again islanders, be prepared in case of!
Those pics are really impressive, get your belt

http://www.rci.fm/Dispatcher?action=Art ... &id=111075

[Gustywind]

Another impressive pics of these nasty floodings


http://www.martinique.franceantilles.fr ... 331451.php

[Gustywind]

Hope that Dominica is ready to act with this rainy event!

More pics : http://www.martinique.franceantilles.fr ... 331480.php

[Gustywind]

Pics from St Lucia related to the floodings: http://stluciatimes.com/2015/11/06/floo ... d-pictures

[msbee]

so sorry to see all the flooding in those islands. we are under a flood watch and heavy rainfall watch also but I don't expect it will be that bad here.

[cycloneye]

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOADED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM TONIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WERE REPORTED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TODAY. THEREFORE...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE RISK FOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING...RAPID RIVER RISE...AND MUDSLIDES STILL HIGH FOR
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS...ADVISORY OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR YOUR
AREA.

&&

[cycloneye]

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER
RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY
DECREASING LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE BEGUN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATING
UP TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PR. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY AND FROM THE EAST...AT ROUGHLY 20 KNOTS. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LATER TODAY.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DISAGREEING A LITTLE WHEN IT
COMES TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY. THE WRF
MODEL LIKES HEAVY RAINFALL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN OUR LOCAL
AREA...WITH DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE USVI IN THE MORNING HOURS
AND THEN A LOCAL MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WRF MODEL HAS MOST OF THE RAINFALL OUT
OF LAND AREAS BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE NMM MODEL HAS LESS
RAINFALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE NMM MODEL HAS PLENTY OF RAIN
ACROSS THE USVI VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT MOST OF IT GONE BY
MID-MORNING WHILE SOME RAIN STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PR...HOWEVER
EASTERN PR SHOULD RECEIVE THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NMM DOES
NOT PUT NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR OF PR COMPARED TO THE
WRF MODEL. SO THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. HAVING
SAID THAT...BOTH MODELS HAS IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BASED
ON THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS...OUR FORECAST IS
LEANING MORE WITH THE NMM MODEL WHICH HAS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR TODAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE USVI AS WELL. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL LINGER UNTIL
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PR AND AROUND
THE USVI. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDINESS
THAT SHOULD LIMIT OR INHIBIT THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SO AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND THE
USVI...WITH SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS MOVING A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS
THE STRONG WINDS PUSH THEM FORWARD...HOWEVER THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS WE GO FURTHER WEST OVER
PR.

WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH SEVERAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE. ALSO THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND RIDGE
ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...USVI AND
E PR IN THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS W PR LATER TODAY.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT WITH
HIGHER GUST ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE COMBINATION OF A SHORT PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
COMBINES WITH THE WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET AND CHOPPY ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS
EXCEPT THE NEARSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PR AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TO THE WEST AND NW PR. THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

&&

HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY DURING
THE DAY. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS TO BE EXPECTED. LARGER
RIVERS MAY RISE RAPIDLY. THE SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED SO IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE RUNOFF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 90 79 / 90 50 60 20
STT 85 78 87 79 / 80 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM AST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the
Atlantic is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough
and a west-northwestward moving tropical wave. Some gradual
development of this disturbance is possible by early next week when
it is forecast to be near or east of the Bahamas. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

.UPDATE...AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
QUICKLY...PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...WITH RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

[cycloneye]

2 PM AST:

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles into the
Atlantic is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough
and a west-northwestward moving tropical wave. There are no signs
of organization at this time. However, some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible by early next week when it is forecast
to be near or east of the Bahamas. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over the Lesser Antilles, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT NOV 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHERE FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH IS AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR
MONDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND DURING THE EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 07/23Z...AS SHRA/TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE PERSISTS ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJPS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
EASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUST ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS. MARINERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 79 89 / 50 60 20 50
STT 78 87 79 87 / 60 60 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER AN
EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS
THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY SO RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN
THOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY...THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL KEEP SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY...WHICH MAY HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED AREAS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. EASTERN PR AND AROUND THE USVI ARE THE
AREAS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN...BUT THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR MAY HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

SIMILAR STORY FOR MONDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HAVE A
STRONGER IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MAY HAVE A WEAK LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CAUSING INSTABILITY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OBSERVED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN WITH PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL CAUSE PASSING SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR...THEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONG...THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY LOCALLY INDUCED.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE AT PR AND USVI
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE FLYING AREA. SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AFT 08/16Z. WX CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE
LEEWARD TERMINALS WITH VCSH/VCTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUST ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL
WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 50 40 40 30
STT 87 79 88 79 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER AN EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A MAINLY CLOUDY MORNING WITH LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CARRIBEAN
COASTAL WATERS...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING QUICKLY...THEREFORE
LITTLE ACCUMULATION WAS OBSERVED OVER MOST AREAS. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL REGION...BEGINING ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY OVER THE MORNING HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJPS...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 08/22Z AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUST ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 8 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 89 / 40 40 30 40
STT 79 88 79 88 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA IN A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST CUBA TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND AND THEN TO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO
JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE HIGH CLOSELY A MODEST RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND OUT OF THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
LITTLE EFFECT HERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
EARLY IN THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BEST ACTIVITY REMAINED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVED JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST. ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PASSED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL PATTERN. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
UNTIL THEN IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND EACH MORNING
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ANY FLOODING
THAT COULD OCCUR WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND LOCALIZED THOUGH NONE
IS EXPECTED...NEVERTHELESS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

THE BEST DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO JUST BELOW 1.1 INCHES ON THURSDAY MORNING.THEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RECOVER...BUT REMAIN BELOW THE 50
PERCENTILE OF 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLOW IN THE LOWEST
300 MB IS EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS UNTIL
THURSDAY...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY
WHICH HAS LITTLE MOISTURE AT ITS APEX. HENCE THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THAT OF
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DECLINING
TODAY FROM ITS PEAK YESTERDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY LITTLE DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AS...SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST IN AND AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ BTW 09/17Z-21Z...RESULTING IN PSBL TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER WESTERN PR. ALSO...MTN TOP OBSCD DUE
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...CREATING VCTS AT
TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FM THE E-ESE AT 15-25 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY...DUE TO WINDS OVER THE AREA AND A 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST WITH A PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS. SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO END
EARLY THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL INCREASE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY REACH 6
FEET IN PLACES...AND THEN DIMINISH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SWELLS
WILL BE MINUSCULE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 40 50 50 60
STT 86 77 88 78 / 40 30 40 50