AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS UNTIL IT MOVES NORTH AND IS ABSORBED
INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE DRY EXCEPT FOR LIMITED
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE 10-DAY PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 30 WEST WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND NO SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER LAND USING THE TDWR. WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR NOW...MOISTURE
REMAINS SHALLOW AND HENCE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE
ALMOST SOUTHEAST UP THROUGH 8500 FEET AND ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING IS
EXPECTED THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEND THE TEMPERATURES SOARING
AGAIN IN THE GREATER SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THE MAXIMUM WAS
93 DEGREES YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
OTHER WARES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
MARIN AIRPORT THE RECORD HIGH WAS 96 DEGREES SET IN 1975 AND IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TODAY.
WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE CARRYING TROPICAL
WAVES OUT OF THE SAHARA WITH ONE AT 30 WEST THIS MORNING...BUT
THESE SAME WINDS ARE ALSO CARRYING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF DUST
AND THE WAVES WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS DUST HAS
LIKELY JUST PEAKED AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF DUST WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK. AS
ALWAYS THE DUST IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR.
MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL WRAP
AROUND THE 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
A LITTLE ADDED MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE SAME TIME BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LITTLE AFFECTED. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL AS THE TROPICAL WAVES REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST BETTER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT PRESENTLY CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DUE TO SAHARAN
DUST PARTICLES...HOWEVER VIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 08/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF THE AREA ARE STRONGER AND BUOY
42059 WAS APPROACHING 8 FEET WITH WINDS OF NEARLY 20 KNOTS...BUT
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY INSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY BRING LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS AROUND THE SOUTH PART OF PUERTO RICO AND SMALL CRAFT
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THIS WEEK NOR EARLY INTO THE NEXT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 78 / 0 10 10 10
STT 88 79 89 78 / 10 10 10 30
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE
IS SUSTAINING A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 850MB-800MB. SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY MIDWEEK...
ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TWO TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HAVE MAINTAINED A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PR. IN ADDITION...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES HAVE KEPT
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
STRONG TODAY...SO ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS WILL BE BRIEF.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. SAHARAN DUST CONCETRATIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASE IN
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST PR IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITHOUT IMPACT OUR REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ IN
-SHRA THRU 08/22Z. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HAZY
SKIES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH PR EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 88 / 0 20 10 20
STT 79 89 78 88 / 20 20 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE
IS SUSTAINING A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 850MB-800MB. SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY MIDWEEK...
ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TWO TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITHOUT HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HAVE MAINTAINED A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PR. IN ADDITION...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES HAVE KEPT
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
STRONG TODAY...SO ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS WILL BE BRIEF.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. SAHARAN DUST CONCETRATIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASE IN
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST PR IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITHOUT IMPACT OUR REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ IN
-SHRA THRU 08/22Z. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HAZY
SKIES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN P6SM.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH PR EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 88 / 0 20 10 20
STT 79 89 78 88 / 20 20 30 30
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A CUT-OFF LOW TO FORM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SPREAD
OVER A WIDE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC FROM NEAR GEORGIA
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A
WEAK INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LAST ONE IN THIS 10 DAY PERIOD PASSES THROUGH WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE OF ALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS...SMALL...SHALLOW AND LIGHT MOVED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. A FEW WERE ALSO SEEN IN
THE ATLANTIC. ACCUMULATIONS WERE SLIGHT...ANY. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH THE SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. BOTH THE NAM5 AND THE GFS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SOME MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AM SKEPTICAL THAT MUCH WILL COME OF THIS
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
HORMIGUEROS TO EAST OF MAYAGUEZ. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THEN
THAN TODAY. NEVERTHELESS CONSIDERABLY LESS RAIN WILL FALL IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THAN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THEN ALSO. SHOWERS
AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT FRIDAY WILL SEE
SOME DRYING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO
SUPPLY A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN
AT LEAST IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LAST AND BEST TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH SOME CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH DRY MID-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST RAIN ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE HELP OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT VIS TO REMAIN P6SM. SHRA AND CLOUD FORMATION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 09/18 AND 09/23Z. EAST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL AT
PRESENT...ALTHOUGH LOCAL NEARSHORE WINDS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
PUERTO RICO IS REACHING 18 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO GROW ANOTHER FOOT IN THE EXPOSED AREAS
ELSEWHERE WHERE SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATER
THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 88 76 / 0 10 10 30
STT 88 77 88 76 / 0 20 20 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A CUT-OFF LOW TO FORM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SPREAD
OVER A WIDE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC FROM NEAR GEORGIA
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A
WEAK INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LAST ONE IN THIS 10 DAY PERIOD PASSES THROUGH WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE OF ALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS...SMALL...SHALLOW AND LIGHT MOVED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. A FEW WERE ALSO SEEN IN
THE ATLANTIC. ACCUMULATIONS WERE SLIGHT...ANY. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH THE SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. BOTH THE NAM5 AND THE GFS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SOME MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AM SKEPTICAL THAT MUCH WILL COME OF THIS
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
HORMIGUEROS TO EAST OF MAYAGUEZ. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THEN
THAN TODAY. NEVERTHELESS CONSIDERABLY LESS RAIN WILL FALL IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THAN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THEN ALSO. SHOWERS
AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT FRIDAY WILL SEE
SOME DRYING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO
SUPPLY A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN
AT LEAST IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LAST AND BEST TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH SOME CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH DRY MID-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST RAIN ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE HELP OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT VIS TO REMAIN P6SM. SHRA AND CLOUD FORMATION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 09/18 AND 09/23Z. EAST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL AT
PRESENT...ALTHOUGH LOCAL NEARSHORE WINDS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
PUERTO RICO IS REACHING 18 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO GROW ANOTHER FOOT IN THE EXPOSED AREAS
ELSEWHERE WHERE SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATER
THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 88 76 / 0 10 10 30
STT 88 77 88 76 / 0 20 20 30
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TWO
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY WITHOUT HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES HAVE MAINTAINED
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AT THIS TIME...SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER WEST INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THE MOST
INTENSE SHOWERS FORMED IN THE BORDER BETWEEN YAUCO AND MARICAO.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
REST OF THE ISLAND.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SAHARAN DUST
CONCETRATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITHOUT IMPACTING OUR REGION DIRECTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 09/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 O 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 76 89 / 10 20 30 30
STT 78 87 77 88 / 20 20 30 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TWO
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY WITHOUT HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES HAVE MAINTAINED
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AT THIS TIME...SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER WEST INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THE MOST
INTENSE SHOWERS FORMED IN THE BORDER BETWEEN YAUCO AND MARICAO.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
REST OF THE ISLAND.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SAHARAN DUST
CONCETRATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITHOUT IMPACTING OUR REGION DIRECTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 09/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 O 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 76 89 / 10 20 30 30
STT 78 87 77 88 / 20 20 30 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO LEAVE THE AREA TODAY...THEREFORE HAZINESS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS FRIDAY...WITHOUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LAYER OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND HAZY CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF THEM
MOVED INLAND OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS OBSERVED.
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE USVI AND VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THEREFORE...THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON
FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GFS IS SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE
SHOWING UNCERTAINTY RUN TO RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED EXCEPT...SCT SHRA WILL BRING BRIEF
MVFR CONDS TO TKPK AND TNCM. SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP AFT 10/17Z INTERIOR
AND WRN PR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL AFT 11/00Z.
WINDS ELY NR SFC 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ELY 20 TO 25 KTS FROM FL035 TO FL160.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORMATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WATERS. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF JOBOS...MANATI
AND VEGA BAJA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 79 / 20 20 30 20
STT 88 77 87 79 / 20 30 30 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO LEAVE THE AREA TODAY...THEREFORE HAZINESS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS FRIDAY...WITHOUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LAYER OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND HAZY CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF THEM
MOVED INLAND OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS OBSERVED.
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE USVI AND VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THEREFORE...THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON
FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GFS IS SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE
SHOWING UNCERTAINTY RUN TO RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED EXCEPT...SCT SHRA WILL BRING BRIEF
MVFR CONDS TO TKPK AND TNCM. SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP AFT 10/17Z INTERIOR
AND WRN PR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL AFT 11/00Z.
WINDS ELY NR SFC 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ELY 20 TO 25 KTS FROM FL035 TO FL160.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORMATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WATERS. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF JOBOS...MANATI
AND VEGA BAJA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 79 / 20 20 30 20
STT 88 77 87 79 / 20 30 30 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WAS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A MODERATE CAP INVERSION. TUTT INDUCED MID TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AS UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW NEAR 48 WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL DEPICTION AND
SAL PRODUCT ALL SUGGEST...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING
SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO ALLOWED FOR SOME STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER LAND TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOST CLEAR SKIES.
ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SURGES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE EROSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND PROXIMITY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL SUGGEST A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SAL ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...AND UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING
AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS TIL
11/14Z...INCR TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TIL 11/21Z. ON THURS...AFTN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA 11/17Z-11/21Z MAINLY OVR INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 FEET OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS OF 6 FEET AND WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURG PRD. .SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 30
STT 77 87 79 89 / 30 30 20 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST WED JUN 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WAS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A MODERATE CAP INVERSION. TUTT INDUCED MID TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AS UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW NEAR 48 WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL DEPICTION AND
SAL PRODUCT ALL SUGGEST...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING
SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO ALLOWED FOR SOME STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER LAND TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOST CLEAR SKIES.
ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SURGES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE EROSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND PROXIMITY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL SUGGEST A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SAL ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...AND UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING
AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS TIL
11/14Z...INCR TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TIL 11/21Z. ON THURS...AFTN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA 11/17Z-11/21Z MAINLY OVR INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PR.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 FEET OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS OF 6 FEET AND WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURG PRD. .SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 30
STT 77 87 79 89 / 30 30 20 30
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CIRCULATION AT 700 MB OUT
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
TONIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY.
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING
FINELY SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS... EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AFTER THAT WAVE...ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING A DRIER AND WARMER TREND WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUSPENDED DUST.
THE LOCAL GFS MODEL IS STILL SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA BUT MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR PSBL
TNCM...TKPK. MID LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR AFT 11/18Z...BUT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP AFT 11/16Z OVER INTERIOR AND WRN PR WITH MVFR CONDS AND
MTN OBSCURATIONS INCLUDING TJBQ AND TJMZ...IMPRVG AFT 12/02Z. WINDS
ALF E TO ESE 10 TO 20 KT UP THRU FL240. WINDS ABV FL280 WNW UP TO 30
KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET AND WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 30 20 30 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 30 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CIRCULATION AT 700 MB OUT
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
TONIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY.
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING
FINELY SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS... EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AFTER THAT WAVE...ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING A DRIER AND WARMER TREND WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUSPENDED DUST.
THE LOCAL GFS MODEL IS STILL SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA BUT MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR PSBL
TNCM...TKPK. MID LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR AFT 11/18Z...BUT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP AFT 11/16Z OVER INTERIOR AND WRN PR WITH MVFR CONDS AND
MTN OBSCURATIONS INCLUDING TJBQ AND TJMZ...IMPRVG AFT 12/02Z. WINDS
ALF E TO ESE 10 TO 20 KT UP THRU FL240. WINDS ABV FL280 WNW UP TO 30
KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET AND WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 30 20 30 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 30 30 30
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE A TUTT
INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR
54 WEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FARTHER EAST...A TUTT LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD. THE
LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BECOME SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN... IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN WEST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT... BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY/VENTILATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS ALONG WILL GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR THE MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WERE HELPING TO QUICKLY STEER THE ACTIVITY WESTWARDS
IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PUERTO RICO... AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER LAND SHOULD DIMINISH LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MORNING
ANOTHER ROUND OF TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY... GOOD TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING AND TRAILING THIS WAVE WILL GIVE
SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST FAIRLY MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF SAL ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS
AND LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AS PASSING SHRA
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CAUSE
TEMPO MVFR CONDS. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY. FEW TCU HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 15KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR THE SHOWERS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 5 TO 10
KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND THE WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 40 30 40
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 40 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU JUN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE A TUTT
INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR
54 WEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FARTHER EAST...A TUTT LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD. THE
LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BECOME SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN... IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN WEST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT... BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY/VENTILATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS ALONG WILL GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR THE MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WERE HELPING TO QUICKLY STEER THE ACTIVITY WESTWARDS
IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PUERTO RICO... AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER LAND SHOULD DIMINISH LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MORNING
ANOTHER ROUND OF TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY... GOOD TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING AND TRAILING THIS WAVE WILL GIVE
SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST FAIRLY MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF SAL ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS
AND LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AS PASSING SHRA
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CAUSE
TEMPO MVFR CONDS. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY. FEW TCU HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 15KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR THE SHOWERS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 5 TO 10
KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND THE WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 40 30 40
STT 79 89 80 89 / 30 40 40 40
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
...WITH BULK OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS PASSING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. NEXT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA BUT MAINLY VFR. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT
12/16Z OVER INTERIOR AND WRN PR WITH MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
INCLUDING TJBQ AND TJMZ...IMPRVG AFT 12/22Z. ESE WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT EXPECTED BELOW FL20.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 30 30 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 40 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
...WITH BULK OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS PASSING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A
DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. NEXT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA BUT MAINLY VFR. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT
12/16Z OVER INTERIOR AND WRN PR WITH MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
INCLUDING TJBQ AND TJMZ...IMPRVG AFT 12/22Z. ESE WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT EXPECTED BELOW FL20.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 30 30 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 40 40 40
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
EARLIER TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER THERE WAS STILL SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
AFFECTS...A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PR AND
SOME AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ERODES AND UPPER TROUGH SETTLES...THE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH DECENT
CONCENTRATION...PREVAILING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...SAHARAN DUST IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THEREAFTER...A FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SAHARAN
DUST AND DRIER AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL CONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR AND W SECTIONS OF PR TIL 12/22Z. BRIEF MVFR DUE TO
PASSING SHRA/LOW CLD LYR BTW FL020-FL040...FEW CB/TCU BLDUPS ALONG
CORDILLERA CENTRAL BUT CIRCUMNAVIGABLE WITH TOPS BTW 180-200. SOME
SCT HIGH CI CLDS OVR PR AND USVI NR FL250. DIMINISHING AFTN
CONVECTION AFT 12/22Z. L/LVL WNDS FM E 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STARTING TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
UP TO 6 FEET RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 91 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 88 80 89 / 40 40 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI JUN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
EARLIER TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER THERE WAS STILL SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
AFFECTS...A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PR AND
SOME AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ERODES AND UPPER TROUGH SETTLES...THE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY EVENING...SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH DECENT
CONCENTRATION...PREVAILING OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...SAHARAN DUST IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THEREAFTER...A FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SAHARAN
DUST AND DRIER AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL CONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR AND W SECTIONS OF PR TIL 12/22Z. BRIEF MVFR DUE TO
PASSING SHRA/LOW CLD LYR BTW FL020-FL040...FEW CB/TCU BLDUPS ALONG
CORDILLERA CENTRAL BUT CIRCUMNAVIGABLE WITH TOPS BTW 180-200. SOME
SCT HIGH CI CLDS OVR PR AND USVI NR FL250. DIMINISHING AFTN
CONVECTION AFT 12/22Z. L/LVL WNDS FM E 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STARTING TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
UP TO 6 FEET RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 91 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 88 80 89 / 40 40 40 40
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...AS
TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH
FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
WAS MINIMAL. A VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. LITTLE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ISLANDS COULD SEE
AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST. GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...AT THIS MOMENT...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. AFT 13/17Z
SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER NW PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 13/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE E
TO ESE AT 10-20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UPTO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 20 30 30 10
STT 88 80 89 78 / 20 40 40 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...AS
TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH
FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
WAS MINIMAL. A VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. LITTLE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE ISLANDS COULD SEE
AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST. GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...AT THIS MOMENT...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. AFT 13/17Z
SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER NW PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 13/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE E
TO ESE AT 10-20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UPTO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 20 30 30 10
STT 88 80 89 78 / 20 40 40 10
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK AS A WEAKER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A SURFACE LOW STAYS
JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SETUP WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ERODE BY SUNDAY...PUTTING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY JUST AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST MADE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN AS HAZE WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS HAZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY OVER THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY.
TODAY ALL WE SAY WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE FEATURES GO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
MORE DOMINATING STARING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAUSING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES. HOWEVER
THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN DUST SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AREA
OF SUCH SHOWERS AND LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
PR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
STABLE WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND SAHARAN DUST. IT IS NOT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY THAT WE SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. AT THAT TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
BE TO OUR WEST AND THE SAHARAN DUST SHOULD DECREASE...ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT OUR BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE...ALBEIT A SHORT ONE BECAUSE IT
SEEMS TO BE MOVING QUICKLY AND IT IS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PR AND ACROSS THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITE DURG PRD. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO CONT MAINLY ACROSS W INTERIOR AND NW
PR TIL 13/22Z...W/BRIEF MVFR AND OCNL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO LOW CIG
AND PASSING SHRA AS ACTIVITY MOV NW. NO OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS.
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...SFC WND MAINLY FM E 10 TO
15 KTS OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. ELSEWHERE ...MOSTLY SCT CU/SC
CLD LYRS EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS FL020...FL060. SOME ISOLD TOPS 180...
L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS
THE THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 90 / 30 30 10 20
STT 80 89 78 88 / 40 40 10 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT JUN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK AS A WEAKER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A SURFACE LOW STAYS
JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SETUP WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ERODE BY SUNDAY...PUTTING US UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY JUST AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST MADE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN AS HAZE WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS HAZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY OVER THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY.
TODAY ALL WE SAY WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE FEATURES GO...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
MORE DOMINATING STARING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAUSING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES. HOWEVER
THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN DUST SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AREA
OF SUCH SHOWERS AND LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
PR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
STABLE WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND SAHARAN DUST. IT IS NOT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY THAT WE SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. AT THAT TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
BE TO OUR WEST AND THE SAHARAN DUST SHOULD DECREASE...ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT OUR BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE...ALBEIT A SHORT ONE BECAUSE IT
SEEMS TO BE MOVING QUICKLY AND IT IS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PR AND ACROSS THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITE DURG PRD. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO CONT MAINLY ACROSS W INTERIOR AND NW
PR TIL 13/22Z...W/BRIEF MVFR AND OCNL MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO LOW CIG
AND PASSING SHRA AS ACTIVITY MOV NW. NO OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS.
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...SFC WND MAINLY FM E 10 TO
15 KTS OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. ELSEWHERE ...MOSTLY SCT CU/SC
CLD LYRS EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS FL020...FL060. SOME ISOLD TOPS 180...
L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS
THE THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 90 / 30 30 10 20
STT 80 89 78 88 / 40 40 10 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 52W EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
THIS SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED AROUND 52W EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A SURGE IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...ANOTHER AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS
THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE FLYING AREA...HOWEVER VIS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
P6SM. NO OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS. LOW LEVEL WNDS FM E-SE 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 79 89 78 / 20 10 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST SUN JUN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TONIGHT...AND WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 52W EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
THIS SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED AROUND 52W EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A SURGE IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...ANOTHER AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS
THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE FLYING AREA...HOWEVER VIS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
P6SM. NO OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS. LOW LEVEL WNDS FM E-SE 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 79 89 78 / 20 10 20 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL AMPLIFY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
MAINTAINING A EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 57 WEST IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES AS WELL AS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WET
AND UNSTABLE LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING PR/USVI
FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AEROSOL MODELS...NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5
INDICATED ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS
INDICATE VERY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST. THEREFORE...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING FORECAST PERIOD. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM IN ALL TERMINALS. SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FROM 15/17Z-15/22Z...MAINLY OVER TJMZ. LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM E-SE 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-6 FEET AND WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 79 / 10 10 20 50
STT 89 79 87 80 / 10 20 20 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL AMPLIFY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
MAINTAINING A EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 57 WEST IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES AS WELL AS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WET
AND UNSTABLE LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING PR/USVI
FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AEROSOL MODELS...NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5
INDICATED ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE MODELS
INDICATE VERY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST. THEREFORE...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING FORECAST PERIOD. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM IN ALL TERMINALS. SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FROM 15/17Z-15/22Z...MAINLY OVER TJMZ. LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM E-SE 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-6 FEET AND WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 79 / 10 10 20 50
STT 89 79 87 80 / 10 20 20 60
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK RIDGE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH DURING THE WEEK AND THEN APPROACH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH WITH VERY
WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPEAR OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND CROSS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SUB TROPICS WHILE
DRIFTING CLOSER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM VILLALBA TO ANASCO. A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GUAYNABO AND SAN
JUAN MUNICIPALITIES...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE 15/12Z SOUNDING
REVEALS VERY UNFAVORABLE AIR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MUCH ABOVE
3500 FEET...NEVERTHELESS SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INTENSE HEATING OF
AN EQUATORIAL SUN. AIR...DRIER STILL...WILL PASS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AFTER
16/06Z...AND BY 16/18Z PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH 17/06Z WHEN MOISTURE WILL PEAK AT
OVER 2.1 INCHES. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE
GOOD CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY THE GFS IS SHOWING VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB WEDNESDAY FROM 12-18Z AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND HENCE RAINFALL...OVER THE DRY
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. VERY DRY AIR...LADEN WITH DUST...IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18/00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON MONDAY...AND MAY BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN AFTER THE 24 HOURS ENDING 18/00Z.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/-TSRA OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ. VFR
ELSEWHERE. HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
P6SM. LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SFC UNTIL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...STRONGEST IN THE
CARIBBEAN OUTER WATERS WILL GENERATE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THAT WILL
CONTINUE WITH FEW BREAKS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO
6 FEET WILL OCCUR IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 10 20 50 50
STT 79 87 80 86 / 20 20 60 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST MON JUN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK RIDGE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH DURING THE WEEK AND THEN APPROACH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH WITH VERY
WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPEAR OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND CROSS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE SUB TROPICS WHILE
DRIFTING CLOSER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM VILLALBA TO ANASCO. A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GUAYNABO AND SAN
JUAN MUNICIPALITIES...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE 15/12Z SOUNDING
REVEALS VERY UNFAVORABLE AIR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MUCH ABOVE
3500 FEET...NEVERTHELESS SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INTENSE HEATING OF
AN EQUATORIAL SUN. AIR...DRIER STILL...WILL PASS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AFTER
16/06Z...AND BY 16/18Z PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES.
THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH 17/06Z WHEN MOISTURE WILL PEAK AT
OVER 2.1 INCHES. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE
GOOD CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY THE GFS IS SHOWING VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB WEDNESDAY FROM 12-18Z AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND HENCE RAINFALL...OVER THE DRY
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. VERY DRY AIR...LADEN WITH DUST...IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18/00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON MONDAY...AND MAY BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN AFTER THE 24 HOURS ENDING 18/00Z.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/-TSRA OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ. VFR
ELSEWHERE. HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
P6SM. LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SFC UNTIL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...STRONGEST IN THE
CARIBBEAN OUTER WATERS WILL GENERATE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THAT WILL
CONTINUE WITH FEW BREAKS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO
6 FEET WILL OCCUR IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 10 20 50 50
STT 79 87 80 86 / 20 20 60 60
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Well, we had some much welcome rain today and even a few rolls of thunder. (Haven't heard thunder so long that it sounded strange.) Hope it continues well into tomorrow.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
abajan wrote:Well, we had some much welcome rain today and even a few rolls of thunder. (Haven't heard thunder so long that it sounded strange.) Hope it continues well into tomorrow.
Great to see that is raining in some of the islands that are in a drought.Hopefully up here in PR we get some as the wave moves thru.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
cycloneye wrote:abajan wrote:Well, we had some much welcome rain today and even a few rolls of thunder. (Haven't heard thunder so long that it sounded strange.) Hope it continues well into tomorrow.
Great to see that is raining in some of the islands that are in a drought.Hopefully up here in PR we get some as the wave moves thru.
Hi guys! Glad to see you back in the business
Yeah looks like Guadeloupe should experience tonight and tommorow some showers and tstorms from this twave. Let's wait and see as usual.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH/TUTT PATTERN WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
MAINTAINING A EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 62 WEST THIS MORNING WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEN...
PULSES OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLANDS MOST OF
THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER
THE ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND
UNSTABLE LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
PR/USVI REGION. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER PR AND USVI
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/TUTT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.THEREFORE... CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING PR/USVI TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION BETWEEN
850MB-700MB ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN AIR LAYER. IF THIS
VERIFIES...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REDUCE THE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
AEROSOL MODELS...NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 STILL INDICATED PULSES OF
SAHARAN DUST REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUST WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST
VERY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST. AS A RESULT...HAZY SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FROM 16/17Z-
16/22Z...MAINLY OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM E-SE 15-20
KTS. SHRA & TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-6 FEET AND WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 78 / 20 50 50 20
STT 88 79 88 78 / 20 60 60 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST TUE JUN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH/TUTT PATTERN WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
MAINTAINING A EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 62 WEST THIS MORNING WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEN...
PULSES OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLANDS MOST OF
THE WEEK...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER
THE ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID AND
UNSTABLE LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES
PR/USVI REGION. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER PR AND USVI
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/TUTT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.THEREFORE... CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING PR/USVI TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION BETWEEN
850MB-700MB ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN AIR LAYER. IF THIS
VERIFIES...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REDUCE THE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
AEROSOL MODELS...NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 STILL INDICATED PULSES OF
SAHARAN DUST REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUST WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST
VERY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST. AS A RESULT...HAZY SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FROM 16/17Z-
16/22Z...MAINLY OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM E-SE 15-20
KTS. SHRA & TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-6 FEET AND WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 78 / 20 50 50 20
STT 88 79 88 78 / 20 60 60 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139130
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST TUE JUN 16 2015
...A MODERATE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SAHARAN DUST
EVENT...
.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW IN A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY A WEAK TUTT
WILL SINK SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY NEAR THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE AND FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL THEN MOVE CLOSER INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CARRY GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ON THURSDAY MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...
CARRYING ONE OF THE HEAVIEST DUST EPISODES SEEN THIS YEAR. DUST
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM
JAYUYA TO ANASCO AFTER 1 PM AST. AS MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO APPEAR ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO ARE MOSTLY STATIONARY...BUT SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN
HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS HIGHLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION BUT
SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE OVER ONE INCH IN THE 24 HOURS BEGINNING AT
17/00Z. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS. AFTER 18/00Z THE
MOISTURE WILL END RATHER ABRUPTLY AND BY THURSDAY MORNING SOME OF
THE HIGHEST QUANTITIES OF DUST SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. LOW SUN ANGLES COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 OR 6 MILES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUST WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT WILL
NOT CONTAIN AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THE ONE PASSING TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR AT JMZ/TJBQ POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LOW LEVEL E-SE WINDS AT 10-20 KT. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CAUSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TO DETERIORATE FROM THIS
EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC LAYERS BETWEEN FL100-200
AND TOPS NR FL350 ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING
SPREADING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO SOUTHERN PR AND THE USVI
TERMINALS. HIR TOPS AFT 17/15Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOME OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY. OWING TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH...MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 76 91 / 60 60 10 20
STT 78 87 76 88 / 50 60 10 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST TUE JUN 16 2015
...A MODERATE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SAHARAN DUST
EVENT...
.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW IN A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY A WEAK TUTT
WILL SINK SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY NEAR THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE AND FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL THEN MOVE CLOSER INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CARRY GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ON THURSDAY MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...
CARRYING ONE OF THE HEAVIEST DUST EPISODES SEEN THIS YEAR. DUST
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM
JAYUYA TO ANASCO AFTER 1 PM AST. AS MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO APPEAR ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO ARE MOSTLY STATIONARY...BUT SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN
HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS HIGHLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION BUT
SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE OVER ONE INCH IN THE 24 HOURS BEGINNING AT
17/00Z. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT SHOWERS WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS. AFTER 18/00Z THE
MOISTURE WILL END RATHER ABRUPTLY AND BY THURSDAY MORNING SOME OF
THE HIGHEST QUANTITIES OF DUST SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. LOW SUN ANGLES COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 OR 6 MILES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUST WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT WILL
NOT CONTAIN AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THE ONE PASSING TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR AT JMZ/TJBQ POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LOW LEVEL E-SE WINDS AT 10-20 KT. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CAUSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TO DETERIORATE FROM THIS
EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC LAYERS BETWEEN FL100-200
AND TOPS NR FL350 ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING
SPREADING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO SOUTHERN PR AND THE USVI
TERMINALS. HIR TOPS AFT 17/15Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOME OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY. OWING TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH...MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 76 91 / 60 60 10 20
STT 78 87 76 88 / 50 60 10 20
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 104 guests