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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10441 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:24 pm

The low pressure is just east of the Virgin islands by looking at that north wind direction there.

Code: Select all

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
700 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

PRZ001-004-220000-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   PTCLDY    82  75  78 E13       29.96R
AGUADILLA      PTCLDY    81  75  83 E17       29.96R
CEIBA          CLOUDY    82  77  83 NE9       29.96R HX  91
$$

PRZ006-007-220000-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA  PTCLDY    81  77  89 N14       29.92
CHRISTIANSTED  PTCLDY    82  75  78 N9        29.92
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10442 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:The low has passed St Maarten as winds have changed direction.

Code: Select all

6 PM (22) Sep 21 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) SE 20 
 5 PM (21) Sep 21 82 (28) 78 (26)  SE 17 rain during the past hour
 4 PM (20) Sep 21 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) ESE 12 light rain showers
 3 PM (19) Sep 21 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) ENE 14 light rain showers
 2 PM (18) Sep 21 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) ENE 14 light 


Yes, things have cleared here. The rain seems to have stopped. I actually saw some pink skies at sunset
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10443 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:34 pm

Can anyone imagine if this weak low is instead an eye of a powerful hurricane like Georges :eek: ,that today is the 13th anniversary.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10444 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Can anyone imagine if this weak low is instead an eye of a powerful hurricane like Georges :eek: ,that today is the 13th anniversary.


13 a unlucky number CE..
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10445 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:53 pm

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10446 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:58 pm

8pm

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AT
21/2100 UTC FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 18N85W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER TO THE W TIP OF JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER VENEZUELA COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 76W TO OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N82W
TO 18N76W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 21/1800 UTC NEAR
18N63W MOVING THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-19N. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS GENERATED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W AND BE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE 1012 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO THE W ATLC BY THU. TROPICAL STORM
OPHELIA WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SAT MOVING NW OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10447 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2011 7:28 pm

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10448 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 21, 2011 7:29 pm

LATEST SFWMD MODELS OF OHPHELIA:


https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif








STAY INFORMED MY FRIENDS!
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10449 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2011 7:30 pm

The weak low of 99L is just east of the USVI.

Code: Select all

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

PRZ001-004-220100-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   PTCLDY    82  77  83 E8        29.97R HX  91
AGUADILLA      MOCLDY    81  75  83 E15       29.98R
CEIBA          CLOUDY    82  77  83 NE13      29.95S HX  91
$$

PRZ006-007-220100-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA  CLOUDY    82  79  89 N12G23    29.93R HX  93
CHRISTIANSTED  PTCLDY    82  77  83 N7        29.94R HX  91
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10450 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2011 9:46 pm

At 11 PM track.Puerto Rico is out of cone,yes!! Read the 11 PM discussion below graphic.

Image

11 PM discussion.


TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT
OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND NOAA BUOY 41041 RECENTLY REPORTED
1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 45 KT. BASED ON THE BUOY AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE MAXIMUM WIND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES IN THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
OPHELIA IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF SHEAR DUE IN PART TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND IN RESPONSE MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS IT MOVES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS COULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO CATCH UP WITH THE TROUGH
AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR...OR TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE TROUGH
AND ENCOUNTER LIGHTER SHEAR. THE GFS TENDS TOWARD THE LATTER
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFDL MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE AFTER 96 HR. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
THE STORM FROM 96-120 HR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.0N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.3N 50.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.3N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 23.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10451 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:04 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

.UPDATE...THE LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW FEATURE GENERATED GUSTY WINDS
OF BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND WIND WILL SHIFT
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...THIS WILL CONCENTRATE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. MODIFY THE WEATHER GRIDS TO REPRESENT ACTUAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10452 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 5:14 am

Good morning.

While we are still watching what Ophelia does,in Puerto Rico,it has been an active overnight with numerous showers and thunderstorms caused by the low pressure 99L moving thru. It will be a rainy day here so I will post the flood advisories at the thread for those.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS
WELL AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THIS IS PRODUCING SQUALL LIKE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS PROGRESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. WITH FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT AND PWAT VALUES
STILL FORECAST TO BE JUST BELOW TWO INCHES TODAY... EXPECT LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
SHOWED SOME INTENSIFICATION THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRACK WESTWARD TODAY...THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN/ADVISORY
ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...THE VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPO
PERIODS OF MVRF OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY. BTWN 22/08-22/12Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL
AFFECT TJSJ AND TJPS. THEN...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER
WESTERN PR AND WILL AFFECT TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS AFT 22/12Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSTAIN WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 50 30 30 30
STT 88 80 89 80 / 50 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10453 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:18 am

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ732-741-221430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0132.110922T1236Z-110922T1430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
836 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...

* UNTIL 1030 AM AST

* AT 829 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 30
NM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LA PARGUERA MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 1698 6804 1747 6804 1771 6802 1772 6800
1764 6734 1697 6730 1696 6734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1235Z 095DEG 16KT 1750 6744

$$

ROSA
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10454 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:28 am

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10455 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:30 am

Current Weather Conditions:
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR, United States

(TJSJ) 18-27N 066-00W
Conditions at

2011.09.22 1356 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT) gusting to 22 MPH (19 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 87.1 F (30.6 C)
Heat index 95.4 F (35.2 C)
Dew Point 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity 65%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.03 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TJSJ 221356Z 10009G19KT 10SM FEW034 SCT090 31/23 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP167 T03060233
Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

Maximum
Temperature
F (C) Minimum
Temperature
F (C)
82.0 (27.8) 79.0 (26.1) In the 6 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 1156 UTC
89.1 (31.7) 75.0 (23.9) In the 24 hours preceding Sep 21, 2011 - 11:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.22 0356 UTC
Precipitation Accumulation

Precipitation
Amount
0.29 inches In the 3 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 04:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 0856 UTC
0.29 inches In the 6 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 1156 UTC
0.57 inches In the 24 hours preceding Sep 22, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.22 1156 UTC
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 10 AM (14) Sep 22 87.1 (30.6) 73.9 (23.3) 30.03 (1016) E 10
9 AM (13) Sep 22 84.9 (29.4) 75.9 (24.4) 30.03 (1016) E 10
8 AM (12) Sep 22 82.0 (27.8) 75.0 (23.9) 29.99 (1015) ESE 7
7 AM (11) Sep 22 82.0 (27.8) 75.0 (23.9) 29.98 (1015) ESE 6
6 AM (10) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 75.9 (24.4) 29.95 (1014) ESE 8
5 AM (9) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 77.0 (25.0) 29.92 (1013) E 10
4 AM (8) Sep 22 80.1 (26.7) 77.0 (25.0) 29.91 (1012) E 16
3 AM (7) Sep 22 80.1 (26.7) 78.1 (25.6) 29.89 (1012) E 15 light rain with thunder
2 AM (6) Sep 22 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.92 (1013) E 25 light rain with thunder
1 AM (5) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 77.0 (25.0) 29.94 (1013) ENE 18 light rain with thunder
Midnight (4) Sep 22 81.0 (27.2) 78.1 (25.6) 29.96 (1014) NNE 10 thunder
11 PM (3) Sep 21 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.98 (1015) NNE 9 thunder
10 PM (2) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 77.0 (25.0) 29.99 (1015) NE 9
9 PM (1) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 77.0 (25.0) 29.99 (1015) NE 12
8 PM (0) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 77.0 (25.0) 29.97 (1014) ENE 8
7 PM (23) Sep 21 82.9 (28.3) 75.9 (24.4) 29.96 (1014) ENE 13
6 PM (22) Sep 21 84.0 (28.9) 75.9 (24.4) 29.95 (1014) ENE 12
5 PM (21) Sep 21 86.0 (30.0) 75.9 (24.4) 29.93 (1013) ENE 13
4 PM (20) Sep 21 87.1 (30.6) 75.9 (24.4) 29.92 (1013) NE 15
3 PM (19) Sep 21 88.0 (31.1) 75.9 (24.4) 29.92 (1013) ENE 16
2 PM (18) Sep 21 89.1 (31.7) 75.9 (24.4) 29.94 (1013) ENE 16
1 PM (17) Sep 21 88.0 (31.1) 75.0 (23.9) 29.97 (1014) NE 16
Noon (16) Sep 21 82.0 (27.8) 75.9 (24.4) 29.99 (1015) E 16
Oldest 11 AM (15) Sep 21 80.1 (26.7) 75.0 (23.9) 30.01 (1016) E 12
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Wea
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10456 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:31 am

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10457 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:37 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-230930-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
526 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...BRIEF AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT LEAST
SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS OF FLOODING OR OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-230930-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
526 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN... LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS OF FLOODING OR OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

$$
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10458 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:40 am

11 AM Track.

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10459 Postby Macrocane » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:50 am

The temperatures registered on September 21 in Central America:
-Near normal lows in all the region.
-Near normal highs in most of the region.
I also added some of the highs registered on September 20 as they were the coolest since June in parts of Guatemala and El Salvador.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F) Coolest since July 30
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10°C (50°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.4°C (52.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.2°C (57.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F) The day before it registered 20°C (68°F) the coolest high since June 27
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F) The day before it registered 26.8°C (80.2°F) The coolest high since June 26
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.9°F) The day before the high was 29.9°C (85.8°F) The coolest since June 26
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F) The day before it registered 24°C (75°F) The coolest high since June 26
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia

#10460 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:57 am

00
FXCA62 TJSJ 221451 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1051 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

.UPDATE...LOW PRES IS GONE BUT A TRADE WIND SURGE EVIDENT ON VIS
IMAGERY AND ON REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS OVR THE LEEWARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE USVI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO PR THIS EVENING. THIS
SURGE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON PER
GROWING CU FIELD ON RECENT VIS IMAGERY AND MODEL OUTPUT FROM HI-
RES ARW MODELS. CONVECTION IF ITS GET DEEP ENOUGH COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC. FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY
DUE TO EXPECTED FAST MOTION. AFTER TODAY...SHOULD HAVE A COUPLE OF
REALLY DRY DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST...USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AUGMENTED DUE TO FAST
STORM MOTION ARE LIKELY WITH A TALL THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS
WELL AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THIS IS PRODUCING SQUALL LIKE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS PROGRESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. WITH FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT AND PWAT VALUES
STILL FORECAST TO BE JUST BELOW TWO INCHES TODAY... EXPECT LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
SHOWED SOME INTENSIFICATION THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRACK WESTWARD TODAY...THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN/ADVISORY
ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 50 30 30 30
STT 88 80 89 80 / 50 30 30 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/09
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