Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...GENERATING FRESH TRADE WINDS. BY MID
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND DIG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND UNTIL AT LEAST 13/22Z AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME VCSH. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS...DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER 13/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 87 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 85 74 86 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DRYING THROUGH FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES-SOUNDER DATA WHICH SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BETWEEN 700-300 MB. EXPECT DRYING TREND TO
INTENSIFY WED-FRI AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURGING
WITH THE GFS THE MORE AGGRESIVE OF THE TWO. SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE
SHAPING UP CLOUDY AND WET BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ABOUT THIS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS SUPPORTING A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 14/17-21Z +SHRA EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
OF PR...WITH AREAS OF OBSCD MTNS AND POSBL MVFR IMPACTING MAINLY
TJMZ. EAST WINDS BLO FL050 AT 15-20 KTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP 20 KT THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH THU AND FRI.
SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRI
AND MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TUE AND WED THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THU AND FRI. FUELS ARE VERY
DRY NOW IN SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX. DRYING HAS ALSO BEEN
OCCURRING IN VIEQUES SINCE EARLY MARCH. IT WILL BE DRY TODAY BUT
NOT LIKELY TO BE DRY ENOUGH FOR RED FLAGS. DRYING INTENSIFIES
WED-FRI WITH RED FLAGS LIKELY ON WED AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 20 10 10 10
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRIDAY. RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU FRIDAY...A DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED. CAPPING AT THE MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR
AND A FEW STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI. FOR THE WEEKEND...AS CAP
ERODES DUE TO UPPER TROUGH AEREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRAY TSRA AT JMZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. VCTS AT JBQ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW. SHORT PERIOD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND INTENSIFY THU
AND FRI. NOT SURE WHETHER THE REALLY DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE AT MAX
HEATING TODAY TO MEET THE RH CRITERIA. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR TODAY. VERY DRY TO EXTREMELY DRY THU
AND FRI. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNWARD TREND IS NOTED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
EITHER ON THE SFC OR 0-1 KM AVG WINDS FOR THU AND FRI. SO RED FLAGS
APPEAR VERY LIKELY BOTH THU AND FRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 74 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 74 86 74 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 200 PM AST...SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST 15/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.31
INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE PW VALUES WILL DROP TO
AS LOW AS 0.90 INCHES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
MOVES FROM THE EAST. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS DOMINATING THE
LOCAL AREA...WILL MOVE EAST...AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE THRU 15/22Z IN AND AROUND
JMZ. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 77 90 / 10 10 20 20
STT 74 86 75 86 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SHEAR
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT AST SOUTH OF MONA ISLAND. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE SAME SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR EACH
AFTERNOON. AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO NORMAL VALUES ON
SUN-TUE...ONLY AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR SHOULD BE NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...A STRAY TSRA POSSIBLE AT JMZ THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS UNDER
5 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST ABOVE 15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI MORNING AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
RH`S. WINDS LOOK SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUT SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE LIKELY
TO RESULT IN ENHANCED SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY
DRY ON THE SOUTH COAST AND SAINT CROIX WITH VERY HIGH KBDI`S IN THE
700S. ANY FIRES WILL BURN INTENSELY HOT DUE TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH
ERC`S APPROACHING 60 AT CAMP SANTIAGO WHICH WOULD BE AN ALL TIME
HIGH SINCE THE CAMP SANTIAGO STATION BECAME OPERATIONAL AGAIN IN
EARLY 2012.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 89 76 / 0 10 10 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 0 20 20 20

[msbee]

looks like no rain coming my way or yours Luis.
People need to be extremely careful in these dry conditions

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WINDS WERE EASTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME VARIATIONS ALONG THE COAST.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSE TO OUR AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVERY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THEREFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
BETTER ON SATURDAY. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FREQUENCY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL
DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS BTWN 16/18Z AND 16/22Z IN AND AROUND JMZ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET MAINLY
OFFSHORE. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 88 76 / 0 10 20 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 0 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS....SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
DURING THE WEEKEND...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SUGGESTS A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SMALL AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND
BRIEFLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOME
OF THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE HOWEVER MINIMAL AND MAINLY OF LIGHT INTENSITY. LOCAL WINDS
WERE FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS.

MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND ALSO INDUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND LATER IN THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN PLACING THE AREA ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FREQUENCY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ALLOW FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS
TISX...TIST AND TJSJ AS WELL AS ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A PREVAILING E-NE WIND AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AFTER 17/17Z ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY CAUSE VCSH/VCTS
AT TJMZ WITH CIGS AROUND FL040.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY DUE TO MODERATE TO CHOPPY WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 89 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 75 84 77 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY 2 PM...THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
SECTIONS OF YAUCO...VILLALBA AND MOCA. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET...WITH A FEW OF THEM MAINLY OVER WESTERN PR
THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK INDUCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY. LESSER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN PLACING THE AREA ON THE
CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FREQUENCY AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORM IN THE VCNTY OF JBQ AND JMZ
THRU 22Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND AGAIN ON SAT MAINLY AT JBQ. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMIMG MORE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. IN GENERAL
EXPECT SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 76 89 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 84 77 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Scattered showers will fall today in the NE Caribbean as a trough is nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN GRADUALLY FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THEN LIFT FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INDUCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CREATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AS THE
PREVAILING WINDS BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THEN TRAINING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUN METRO LATER IN THE DAY. SOME STREAMER
FORMATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN ALONG WITH DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE STABLE AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS TISX...TIST AND TISJ UNTIL 18/14Z WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 18/17Z...PRODUCING AT LEAST
VCSH/VCTS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE....CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY HOWEVER REACH 6 FEET IN THE
NORTHEASTERN LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS LATER NEXT WEEK BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 40 40 30
STT 84 76 85 77 / 30 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL (250 MB SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER SAN JUAN (PERCEIVED BY GFS) IS APPARENTLY HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT IN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PR SO FAR. WATER
VAPOR LOOP IMPLIES THE WAVE IS MOVING AT A SLOWER PACE WITH THE
400 MB AXIS STILL OVER HISPANIOLA. SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE (1.45
INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER) MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TOO.

GFS SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO 1.71 AT TJSJ WHILE CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX CLIMB TO
RESPECTABLE LEVELS. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER 250 MB SHORTWAVE LOOMING IN
VICINITY OF PR AGAIN WITH DIVERGENCE THAT LEVEL. INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST
PR. BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES RATHER LOW FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
AND REMAINED A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU SUNDAY XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA BOTH AFT WEST AND
NORTHWEST PR ALG WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. SCT SHRA TONITE FM SOUTH PR
TO USVI. WIND THRU SUNDAY BLO FL100 SE TO S 5-15 KT BCMG W AND
INCR ABV.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 CURRENTLY ALMOST 7 FT AND A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MODELS INDICATE...WHICH DO HAVE HEIGHTS ALMOST THAT HIGH BUT
DECREASE THEM AS THEY PASS SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
AND SEE IF RAISING THEM IN FORECAST IS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE 3-5 FT
STILL LOOKS OK AS TRADES TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE
IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY WHILE RIDGE DIRECTLY
NORTH WILL STAY WEAK AT LEAST UNTIL MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 89 / 30 20 30 30
STT 76 85 77 85 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND REACHING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS. LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION TO COMBINE WILL DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND OVERALL
LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY..EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
SEA BREEZE VARIATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS.

RIDGE ALOFT IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH OVER TJSJ. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER
19/17Z...PRODUCING AT LEAST VCSH/VCTS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM BUOY 41043 NE OF PUERTO RICO SUGGEST A
MODERATE NNE SWELL HELPING TO CREATE SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AND PERIOD
OF 10-13 SECS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES. SEAS
OF ABOUT 5 TO 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
AND MONITOR THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSURED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 89 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING.

THE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL
PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THE LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST...INDUCING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR DURG ENTIRE PRD. ISOLD PASSING SHRA MAINLY OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW EAST PR AND USVI. FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS
W/NO SIG BLDUPS ATTM. ...WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY FM ESE BTW 5-15 KT.
WIND ABV FL100 NW INCR WI HGT BCMG NE MON.NO SIG OPERATIONAL HAZARDS
ATTM DURG PRD.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR THE SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AND AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST PR.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HEIGHT RISES
LEADING TO GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE AT JMZ/JBQ TILL AT LEAST 21Z
AS TSRA/SHRA CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR IN THE VICINITY OF
JMZ. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. A GROUP OF NE
SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT AT 4 FT AND 14-15 SECS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 75 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 86 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE
REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

THE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL
PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION
TODAY. THUS...FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO COMBINE WITH THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PRESENT WEATHER
REGIME IN THE FORESEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...FM
21/17-21Z...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MTN TOPS OBSCR AND MVFR
CONDS...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND VCTY. LGT/VRB SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
TIL 21/14Z...THEN BCMG FM THE EAST KTS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS NOW
REPORTING SEAS UNDER 5 FEET. THEREFORE WE EXPECT SEAS MAINLY OF 4
FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL MOMENTS OF 5
FEET. THE TREND IS FOR SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL MOMENTS OF 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY...
INCREASING SEAS TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 76 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 75 85 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS HAVING A
DETRIMETAL EFFECT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. FURTHER DRYING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED ON THU AS SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND WINDS WEAKEN. RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING AN OVERALL DRY WX PATTERN. NO SIG RAINFALL
EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU WED XCP SLGT CHC MVFR AT TJMZ TIL 21Z IN SHRA
AND FEW OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD SHRA OR LESS TONITE EAST PR AND USVI THEN
SCT SHRA WEST PR AND INTERIOR PR WED AFT. WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY E 5-
15 KT BCMG 12-20 KT LATE TONITE-WED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT BUILDING 3-5 FT THU NIGHT IN VERY LONG
PERIOD NNE SWELLS. WINDS SUBSIDE 10 KT OR LESS THU INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC RIDGE WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 76 90 / 10 10 10 20
STT 75 85 77 86 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A TROUGH PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. AFTERWARD THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH...BUT GRADIENTS
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO
OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER INCREASED EARLY IN THE MORNING SOUTH OF
VIEQUES AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM FAJARDO EAST...BUT MOST
REMAINED OFFSHORE AND LITTLE RAIN WAS HAD OVER LAND. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN TO
RISE. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH 90 DEGREES AND LOWER 90S WILL BE
COMMON THERE NEXT WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED TODAY
AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 0.88 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BY 23/06Z TONIGHT. MOISTURE REBOUNDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MEET THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS WILL QUASH MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOS GUIDANCE APPROACHING RECORD WARM MAXIMUMS FOR THE
SAN JUAN AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW ERN
PR AND N LEEWARDS ISOLD SHRA. BETWEEN 22/17-22/21Z ISOLD-SCT SHRA
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR W/PSBL BRIEF
MTN TOP OBSCR AND MVFR IN LOW CIGS...MAINLY VCNTY TJMZ. L/LVL
WNDS FM NE 10-20 KTS BLO FL250 AND SFC WND MAINLY FM E 10-15 KTS
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS....WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 22
KTS. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW A LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY...BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 10 10 10 10
STT 86 75 85 77 / 20 0 0 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED
THROUGH 23/06Z TONIGHT. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THU
INTO SAT AS SFC WINDS WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO RETREATING ATLC SFC
RIDGE ALLOWING FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
SUPPORTING A STEADY WARMING TREND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN
NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. OVERALL...HOT AND DRY WX
PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE FOREESABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLD/SCT -SHRA FOR WESTERN INTERIOR PR WL END
BY 21Z AND OBSCD MTNS WILL BE FEW. DO NOT XPCT ANY TAF SITE WITH
MVFR THRU AT LEAST NOON THU. ISOLD/SCT SHRA NW PR ON THU AFT AND
MVFR STILL UNLIKELY. WIND BLO FL100 E-SE 10-18 KT BCMG SE 8-15 EARLY
TONITE THEN S 6-12 KT THU.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT BUILDING 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI IN LONG
PERIOD NNE SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE DRY AIR ADVECTION...SFC RH`S DID NOT DROP
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS MAKING CRITICAL CONDITIONS EVEN LESS LIKELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 0 20 10 40
STT 75 85 77 84 / 0 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW REACHES UP TO 50 KNOTS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...BUT WEAKENS AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
INTRUSIONS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO MOSTLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRETCHES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICS TO FLORIDA. THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AND
REMAINS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
GENERATING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWER LEVELS BECOME VERY DRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR SOME LIMITED CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST
OF SAINT CROIX AND AROUND VIEQUES. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY
MEASURABLE...FELL OVER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF PUERTO RICO BUT MOST
AREAS WERE DRY. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE INFRA
RED IMAGERY IN THOSE SAME AREAS AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THIS IS MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND LOWER LEVELS BECOME MUCH DRIER FROM TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME DAYS LATE NEXT
WEEK MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY SHOULD CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD.
THIS ANALYSIS REPRESENTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREAS WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW SHRA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FLYING AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ
AFTER 23/17Z DUE TO LOCALLY INDUCED AFTN CONVECTION. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT...AFT 23/12Z BCMG SE TO S AROUND 12 KT
WITH HIGHER SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AT BUOY
41043 AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SEAS
TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 5 FEET IN THE INNER WATERS. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 FEET FOR THIS
DISTANT SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATER NEXT WEEK RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNUSUALLY LOW AND TEMPERATURES
ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
COULD REPRESENT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER
ISLAND-WIDE THAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST 5 YEARS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO EXTEND TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 40 20
STT 86 77 84 77 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROMOTING A MOSTLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG INVERSION IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EVEN
THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER THE
AREA BUT INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR ON FRIDAY AS
THE WIND FLOW HAS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. SO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF PR AND THE SAN JUAN METRO
HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN TERMS OF RAIN...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN CONTRAST...THE BIG STORY SEEMS TO
BE THE CHANCES OF SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEAT FOR THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PR NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS...RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IN THE 925 AND 850MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
CAUSE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST THE
LOW 90S IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
OCCUR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO JUST HOW WARM THE TEMPS WILL BE...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR AND
ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABLES...WE SHOULD OBSERVE A FEW WARM TO
HOT DAYS NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE T-STORMS FRI AND IN THE VCNTY OF JBQ AND JSJ UNDER A DEEP
LAYERED SRLY FLOW.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT...CAUSING SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH TO UP TO 5 FEET
LATER ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AFTER THAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 90 / 10 40 20 20
STT 77 84 77 85 / 20 20 20 20