Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16701 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:02 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 82 70 / 20 20 10 10
STT 84 76 85 73 / 20 20 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16702 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:41 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 70 84 / 20 10 10 10
STT 74 86 75 86 / 20 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16703 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:00 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN WEAKEN ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-700 MB TROF CURRENTLY MOVING WWD THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
ENE WINDS. DRY AND PLEASANT WX TONIGHT AND SAT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. A MOISTURE SURGE IS FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW AIR JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TRADE WIND SURGE. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN AGAIN MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH VCSH
AFFECTING NORTHERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. SCT LAYERS
BETWEEN FL050-100. AFTER 16Z...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJPS. EAST WINDS
BELOW FL100 AT 10-18 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS
4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 70 84 72 / 10 0 20 20
STT 85 75 86 74 / 0 10 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16704 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:50 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING A EAST
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD MOSTLY OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ARE NOT RULE OUT OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS EVE HOLIDAY.
THEREFORE A GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE
FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INTERRUPTED ONLY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS EVE AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL FLYING
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND STRONGER
FROM 20-40K FEET AND EVEN STRONGER FROM THE NORTHWEST ABOVE
40K FEET

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 84 71 83 / 0 20 20 20
STT 73 86 74 86 / 10 20 20 20
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#16705 Postby Gustywind » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:21 pm

Hi my friends, Guadeloupe has just experienced the effects of a moderate to strong earthquake who occurs just SSW of Pointe-Noire. That was a 5.6 quake.

:rarrow: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... alse%7D%7D

2km SSW of Pointe-Noire, Guadeloupe2014-12-19 15:49:30 UTC-04:00114.7 km
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16706 Postby msbee » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:21 pm

It was even felt in St Maarten, gusty
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16707 Postby Gustywind » Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:22 am

msbee wrote:It was even felt in St Maarten, gusty

Ok thanks for that info Barbara. The way this thing shaked the citizens, i'm not very surprised about that even in St Maarteen. Glad to see that there's no report of damages, injuries in most of the Leewards islands especially in the butterfly island :) :) :). Whereas we should stay on our guard as Mother Nature continue to keep it plans and its mysterys.
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#16708 Postby Gustywind » Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:29 am

From our local newspaper called "FranceAntilles". No report of damages, etc. is confirmed. :). Let's hope that this blessed situation amplifies everyday in all of the EC, the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

The earth shook in Guadeloupe

No, you've not dreamed. An earthquake well occurred, this Friday afternoon.
According to the volcanological and seismological Guadeloupe Observatory, an earthquake major (magnitude 5.7 on the Richter scale) was recorded at 3:49 pm (local time) and identified original tectonics.

The epicenter was located at 5 km to the nord−nord−ouest of Lamentin, 119 km depth. This earthquake was able to generate in the nearest affected areas, an average acceleration of soil by 4.7 mg, corresponding to a macroseismic intensity of III−IV (weakly felt). Depending on the type of soil, the intensities may, however, have achieved locally (widely perceived) IV−V intensity.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16709 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:52 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SUSTAINING A TRADE WIND
CAP. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BAND
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REACH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM
NEAR OR OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AGAIN MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS
FURTHER.

&&

AVIATION...SHALLOW/ISOLD SHRA BUT WL NOT LWR COND BLW VFR SAT-SUN.
WIND ENE 8-18 KT SFC-FL200 THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS 3-4 FT NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND BELOW 3 FT SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. FOR
TODAY...NEARSHORE WINDS 10-20 KT MAINLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 74 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
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#16710 Postby Gustywind » Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:57 am

Bad news in Martinica as an airplane and its passengers are missing. Let's hope that nothing bad happens form that. Yesterday were a very special day.: If i've more infos i will keep your informed.

From another local source media Domactu.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... herches%2F

A plane and its two passengers sought

The alert was given Friday by the airport control tower Martinique Aimé Césaire, the small plane and two passengers remained untraceable.
A small tourism plane was still actively sought these past hours by the authorities, after reporting its disappearance by the Tower of the Lamentin at 6PM.

The Centre operational départemental has immediately activated by the prefecture of Martinica and research were incurred, under the aegis of the mounted police.

The plane with two people on board, had left Guadeloupe to go to Martinique until the control tower lost its signal.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16711 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 20, 2014 2:11 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL PROMOTE FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX
AND PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALTHOUGH...SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IN FACT...BEST CHANCE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TUESDAY. AS SUBSIDENCE CAP HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...IF ANY.

FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE NEAR NORMAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHALLOW/
ISOLD SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. SOUNDING DATA SHOWED ENE AT 3-17 KT
UP TO 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES FURTHER NORTH. SEAS BUILDING
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 20 30 30 30
STT 76 85 76 85 / 20 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16712 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 21, 2014 5:40 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE OR TWO BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS CAN BRIEFLY
AFFECT ST. CROIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST DAY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE
ON TUESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH NORMAL PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM ON MOST OF THE DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF AND LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR XCP ISOLD/SCT MVFR IN SHRA TONITE EAST PR/USVI/
LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIND BLO FL060 E 10-20 KT THRU MON...FL060-FL200
MAINLY E 5-12 KT INCR 12-22 KT TONITE/MON.

&&

.MARINE...SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL CONTINUE AT 3-5 FEET AND UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 20 KTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 87 77 / 30 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16713 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 21, 2014 3:25 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. A FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALTHOUGH...SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME
TO TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION...EACH DAY...IF ANY...EXCEPT TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE REESTABLISHES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH OCCASIONAL PASSING
-SHRA EXPECTED AT TIST/TJSJ/TISX/TNCM/TKPK TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED. E WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUST...TURNING LIGHT TO CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY MON AND TUE. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH NORTHEASTERLY
SWELLS INVADING OUR WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 84 / 30 20 40 40
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 20 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16714 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 22, 2014 5:14 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 AM AST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP RIDGE TO MAINTAIN LARGELY FAIR WEATHER
THIS WEEK. BUT MINOR LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS.

VERY SHALLOW TROUGH...MAINLY NORTH OF ANEDAGA PASSAGE...TO PASS
OVER PR/USVI TODAY BUT IT FLATTENS AS IT DOES SO AND IS CARRYING
REALLY LIMITED MOISTURE. DOESN/T APPEAR THAT IT WILL MAKE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN SHOWERS TODAY. BETTER MOISTURE...1.75 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ESSENTIALLY ALL BELOW 700 MB WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT BUT WITHOUT A TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS...FOR BRIEF/
SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS INTO USVI/EAST PR.

GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SIMILAR LOOKING TROUGH AND MOISTURE TO ARRIVE
LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO FAR...CAN/T SEE MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15KTS AFTER 22/14Z FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ALL WEEK BUT A
STRONG AND PERSISTENT MIDDLE NORTH ATLANTIC STORM WILL DRIVE
SWELLS SOUTHWARD BY FRI...MOST OF IT GOING WELL EAST OF ANTILLES
BUT WE MAY GET THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH SWELLS FRI/SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 75 83 72 / 20 30 30 10
STT 86 75 85 76 / 20 40 40 10
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#16715 Postby Gustywind » Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:12 am

The sad news for Guadeloupe :( :cry: concerning the airplane crah who is confirmed. The pilot is dead and its wife is missing and surely dead... My condoleances to the family.

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

Crash at sea of a small plane, two dead

Nicomedes GERVAIS Monday, December 22, 2014



Searches were continuing yesterday evening to retrieve second body, passenger of a small plane of the Aero Club the wings Guadeloupeennes, which crashed Friday between Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The driver and his companion were on route to Martinique when the accident occurred. The man's body was recovered Saturday afternoon. Intensive research resumed yesterday, to find the body of his companion. The patented driver, holder of a licence, Cyril Sanchez, a jovial man who lived his passion, was used to fly with his family. He left Friday around 5 p.m. of Guadeloupe to Martinique with his companion, Gladys Bihary, or 1 h 15 from flight in a Pa-28-18 aircraft, registered F - ØGZ, and Guadeloupeennes wings. The plane had fuel to perform five hours of flight, but crashed at sea before reaching Martinique.

Soon alerted, the teams of the regional centre for monitoring and rescue Antilles-Guyane (Cross-ag) undertook research and reached Saturday afternoon to recover the body of Cyril Sanchez, in the channel of Dominica. An operation conducted with the help of a star of the national company of rescuers at sea. The search continued to find the body of his companion.


AN UNSTABLE WEATHER

At the time where we in press, the exact reasons why the plane crashed were not known. According to Philippe Berchel, president of the Aero Club Guadeloupean wings, there has not been a distress message relayed by the control tower. Preliminary findings, the pilot would have sought to change its route over the deteriorating weather East of Martinique, to be able to bypass the island from the North, to Saint-Pierre.

Mr. Berchel stressed that "the Guadeloupeennes wings aircraft was in perfect flying condition and regularly maintained by the workshop of the club, approved by the competent authorities. An inquiry was opened by the air transport gendarmerie.

The Aero Club has set up a crisis unit internally, with experts from the club, and a psychologist driver accompanied Cyril Sanchez family. This last, father of two children of 15 and 12 years, began his training at the wings guadeloupeennes in may 2013.

AIRCRAFT DEBRIS

Research, interrupted Saturday night, resumed yesterday, with the civil security helicopter and light star of the national society for rescue at sea (SNSM) of Case Pilote station which has found debris of aircraft.

Most important ways (an airplane Cessna for the administration of customs instead of the helicopter) and a star of the SNSM Fort - France station put to contribution in the afternoon, in a sea with 1,50 m waves 2 ft area. The degraded weather conditions were extremely difficult research.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16716 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:27 pm

That is sad news Gusty.I join in the condolences to the family.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 70S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER RIDGE ALOFT/ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...IF ANY...OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MAY INCREASE A BIT THE CHANCE
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK IS
EXPECTED AFT 23/00Z WHEN A BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ISLANDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING AT 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 30 30 10 20
STT 75 85 75 86 / 40 40 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16717 Postby Gustywind » Mon Dec 22, 2014 4:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:That is sad news Gusty.I join in the condolences to the family.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 70S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER RIDGE ALOFT/ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...IF ANY...OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MAY INCREASE A BIT THE CHANCE
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK IS
EXPECTED AFT 23/00Z WHEN A BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ISLANDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING AT 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 30 30 10 20
STT 75 85 75 86 / 40 40 20 20

Thanks to you Cycloneye :) but my is heart is again broke because of another sad story is reported, this time with a missing and dead submarine hunter who where fishing alone :( :( :cry: . Waouw that's a pretty sad end of year for Guadeloupe! :cry:


A submarine Hunter died at Pointe-Noire

:rarrow: posting.php?mode=quote&f=24&p=2431045


The body of a fighter underwater for 40 years, Lamentin, was found late in the morning, Monday, around Pointe Mahault in Pointe-Noire.
The man had used to leave fish in the area. Party since Sunday, the alert was given by his wife and by people who had noticed the buoy on the surface of water.

Searches were launched Monday morning by the marine brigade, in the presence of the helicopter of the gendarmerie and a patrol on the coast, to the level of the water.

After a few hours, it was divers from the water that were found and then recovered the body without the victim's life located at the bottom of the water, not far from the buoy. At this stage, difficult to know the reasons for his death. Is this discomfort? An investigation was opened.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16718 Postby Gustywind » Mon Dec 22, 2014 4:47 pm

Gustywind wrote:
cycloneye wrote:That is sad news Gusty.I join in the condolences to the family.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 70S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER RIDGE ALOFT/ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...IF ANY...OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MAY INCREASE A BIT THE CHANCE
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK IS
EXPECTED AFT 23/00Z WHEN A BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ISLANDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING AT 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 30 30 10 20
STT 75 85 75 86 / 40 40 20 20

Thanks to you Cycloneye :) but my is heart is again broke because of another sad story is reported, this time with a missing and dead submarine hunter who where fishing alone :( :( :cry: . Waouw that's a pretty sad end of year for Guadeloupe! :cry:


A submarine Hunter died at Pointe-Noire

:rarrow: posting.php?mode=quote&f=24&p=2431045


The body of a fighter underwater for 40 years, Lamentin, was found late in the morning, Monday, around Pointe Mahault in Pointe-Noire.
The man had used to leave fish in the area. Party since Sunday, the alert was given by his wife and by people who had noticed the buoy on the surface of water.

Searches were launched Monday morning by the marine brigade, in the presence of the helicopter of the gendarmerie and a patrol on the coast, to the level of the water.

After a few hours, it was divers from the water that were found and then recovered the body without the victim's life located at the bottom of the water, not far from the buoy. At this stage, difficult to know the reasons for his death. Is this discomfort? An investigation was opened.


LINK :darrow:
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16719 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:30 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 AM AST TUE DEC 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
AND CAUSING A CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700 MB. A RELATIVELY
MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE. MIMIC/TPW SHOWS UP TO 45 MM (1.75
INCHES) OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALMOST ALL OF IT BELOW 700 MB...IN
THE REGION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE FROM NORTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST BAHAMAS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RADAR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS APPROACHING USVI. SATELLITE INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NO COLDER THAN +6C AND NEAR THE 700 MB INVERSION
THE GFS INDICATES THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS THE TOPS ARE HIGHER BUT
THINK IT IS HAVING A SIDELOBING EFFECT AND GIVING FALSE ECHO
HEIGHTS. GFS SUGGESTS THE 700 MB INVERSION WILL PERSIST AS THE
SHOWERS PASS OVER PR/USVI TODAY SO CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW. BUT WILL KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED AND EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER 1/4 INCH.

GFS INDICATES THE NEXT LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FAIRLY GOOD
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS WHILE REMNANT COLD FRONT QUICKLY
PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 23/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET. THE STRONG MIDDLE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM THAT THREATENED TO PUSH HIGH SWELLS INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO PUSH
SWELLS TOWARD PR/USVI. BUT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFF U.S. COAST
WILL BE IN POSITION FOR THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT TO DRIVE SWELLS
UP TO 7 FEET TO OUR NORTH SHORES PROBABLY ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 73 / 30 10 10 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 40 10 10 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16720 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:01 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. WINDS WERE FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S.

A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO
COMBINE WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE A
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE.

AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SHARP
DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH PASSING SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX/TJSJ. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ TIL 23/22Z. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED...DECREASING AT 5 TO 10 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 10 10 30 30
STT 75 86 75 86 / 10 10 30 30
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