Caribbean - Central America Weather

[painkillerr]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
640 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNT WERE MEASURED
ACROSS THE LOIZA BASIN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WINDS
OVER THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE BUT WILL CONTINUE AT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT TIMES INTO THE MORNING MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT5
AND WFO SJU TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL MOVE AWAY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TS ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER 28/16Z BUT VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FORECAST SO TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS LEFT OUT. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 90 80 / 90 30 30 40
STT 85 77 90 80 / 90 30 30 40

Where are the heavy rains?? I'm hardly getting reports of a few drizzles here and there.

[cycloneye]

Hi. Most of the heavy rains stayed to the south of PR.

[painkillerr]

:uarrow: Hi. Most of the heavy rains stayed to the south of PR.

Most definitely!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 80 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 77 90 80 90 / 30 30 40 40

[HurricaneFan]

So how much Rain is forecasted for the Islands from these two Tropical Waves?
It does not sound like much,but it sound like the second one will bring a little more than the first one?
Any rough idea on how much inches of rain is in the forecast from these two Waves?

[cycloneye]

So how much Rain is forecasted for the Islands from these two Tropical Waves?
It does not sound like much,but it sound like the second one will bring a little more than the first one?
Any rough idea on how much inches of rain is in the forecast from these two Waves?

Is early yo know how much rain the NE Caribbean will get from the wave around 40W.We will have a better idea when the wave gets closer to the islands to see how much moisture it will have by then.

[cycloneye]

Very sad news from Dominica. My prayers go to the families of the people that died.

Tropical Storm Erika began to lose steam Friday over Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but it left behind a trail of destruction that killed at least 20 people on the small eastern Caribbean island of Dominica, authorities said.

Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said in a televised address late Friday that the island has been set back 20 years in the damage inflicted by the storm.

"This is a period of national tragedy," he said, adding that hundreds of homes, bridges and roads have been destroyed. "We have, in essence, to rebuild Dominica."

Tropical Storm Erika dumped 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain on the mountainous island before it cut Friday into Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where it topped trees and power lines.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/035a00a5 ... d-dominica

[Macrocane]

Very bad news from Dominica, 20 victims are a lot for a small country like Dominica. It will probably be retired.

[abajan]

Very bad news from Dominica, 20 victims are a lot for a small country like Dominica. It will probably be retired.

Yes, I believe it will indeed be retired. And from my understanding, the final death toll may be closer to 30.

To better gauge the impact on Dominica, their population is only about 72,000. So, having 30 people perish there is like having 125,000 people perish in the US!

On another topic, over the last 20 minutes or so we've been getting fairly frequent lightning with a bit of distant thunder. I certainly hope rain follows. We could use it.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 79 / 50 20 20 20
STT 89 80 90 80 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MORNING...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. IN THE
AFTERNOON..SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SECOND WAVE HAVE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPED YESTERDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST. ACCORDINGLY TO LATEST BULLETIN
FROM NHC...FRED WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH AT TJSJ AND
TIST. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER THRU 30/23Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 89 / 20 20 20 30
STT 80 90 80 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE WATERS.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING.SOME HAZINESS COULD BE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO SAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 53W... MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK
AND LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER ITS CONVERGENT SIDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
IN SHRA/-TSRA...W/MTN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 50 50 40
STT 90 80 90 79 / 20 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN HOVER NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MAINLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
AREA. MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THEN DRY OUT
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE COME IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND NEITHER STRONG FEATURES NOR DEEP
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL ACROSS SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX LEAVING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AND ONE TENTH INCH
RESPECTIVELY. AND...SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO HUMACAO AND
YABUCOA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY HEAVY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN...TOMORROW...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...BUT THE BACK OF THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS THIS IS THE BEST MOISTURE THAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FLOW AT MID LEVELS BECOMES NORTHEAST AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE DO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL AFTER THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...WHEN A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 13 SEPTEMBER AND HAS NOT YET COME
OUT OF AFRICA. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE SEEN IN THE AREAS
OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 60 50 40 20
STT 88 80 88 79 / 60 40 40 10

[HurricaneFan]

Is that strong Tropical Wave mentioned in the forecast to arrive on Sep 13th the same Wave in the Tropical Wave over Africa thread?(Which the NHC have at 20% chance to develop in 5 days).

[cycloneye]

Is that strong Tropical Wave mentioned in the forecast to arrive on Sep 13th the same Wave in the Tropical Wave to leave Africa thread?(Which the NHC have at 20% chance to develop in 5 days)

Yes,that is the wave.Let's see how it evolves down the road and if it comes to the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 93 / 50 40 20 10
STT 80 88 79 88 / 40 40 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 93 79 / 50 20 10 10
STT 89 81 88 79 / 40 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS TJSJ.
AFTER SUNSET...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUST MAINLY NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 93 79 92 / 20 10 10 10
STT 81 88 79 88 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

A new Tropical Wave to watch.

8 PM TWO:
A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands Thursday
or Friday. Conditions appear conducive for slow development over
the weekend as the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ON LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AND BY MID-WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN SATURDAY/SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...AND PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WITH USUAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR/WEST
PR DURING THU/FRI AFT WI FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW FL150 VRBL 10 KT
OR LESS BCMG E TO NE UP TO 10 KT LATE TDY THRU FRI.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY BELOW 3 FEET AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS
SOME BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR DUE TO A WEAK NORTHERLY GROUND SWELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 78 90 78 / 10 10 10 30
STT 88 78 88 79 / 10 10 10 30