Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Sorry for the inconvenience that I didn't post for many hours but I had internet issues to work with but I am back.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 40 40 40 50
STT 83 77 83 77 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A JET MAX OF OVER 85 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREATER
ANITLLES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO VERY MODEST LEVELS ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT SHEAR-LINE COMBINATION SITTING OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME MORE EAST WEST AROUND 20 DEGREES NORTH LATE
THIS WEEK WITH SOME CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND MONDAY ON TRADE WIND FLOW...DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING AT 28/12Z CAME IN WITH ONLY
1.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB. CLOUDS THAT DID DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOUND THIS LAYER NEARLY
IMPENETRABLE SO THAT VERY FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT COUNTING FROM MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WESTERN TIP OF SAINT
CROIX...UNTIL 11 AM AST. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST EAST OF SAINT MARTIN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AROUND 08-10Z. SINCE MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THIS IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO YIELD LIGHT AMOUNTS...AND MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE
TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN AS HEATING CONTINUES DURING THE
DAY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN INTERIOR FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LIKELY SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...
FIRST ON THE NORTHERN COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN IN MUCH
THE SAME PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
THE GFS IS INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE AT
MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA STILL POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 28/22Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. ESE WINDS
AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 29/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL OF 10 FEET HAVE BEEN NOTED AT BUOY 41046 TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS SOME 2-3 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH
WAS FORECASTING. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING AT LEAST 6 FOOT SEAS
TONIGHT IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND POSSIBLY 7 FEET BY TOMORROW AT
BUOY 41043 WHICH HAS SHOWN A RAPID RISE TO 6.4 FEET IN THE LAST 6
HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT 7 FOOT SEAS
COULD ENTER THE FORECAST AREA`S ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW IF SWELL
CROSSING THROUGH BUOY 41046 TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES HERE. WILL
ADVISE NEXT SHIFT TO BE ALERT TO UPDATING FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 40 40 50 50
STT 77 84 77 83 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF PR...USVI AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INTO THE
REGION WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED THU-FRI. SOME OF THEM
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
NOT BE RULED OUT. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR TODAY.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT SAT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP COMBINED WITH NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR
AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WEST PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT EACH
DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK IS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SHARP DECREASE TUESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 29/16Z WITH BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING
VCSH AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN-AND SW PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS
AS WELL AS VCTS FOR TJPS AND TJMZ...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 29/17Z AND
29/22Z...WHERE CIGS AROUND FL050 ARE POSSIBLE FOR PR/USVI AS WELL.
MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ DURING THAT TIME IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10-15KT.

&&

.MARINE...NW SWELLS AFFECTING ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 5-7 FT...BUT SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PULSES OF
NNW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS STRENGTHEN SUN
INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 83 73 / 50 50 50 30
STT 84 77 84 76 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT
BUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&


.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED OVER
2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COAST OF HUMACAO EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WERE JUST OVER HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN REPORTED NEAR RIO GUAYANES IN YABUCOA...BUT HEAVY
SHOWERS WERE FORMING OVER ANASCO AND WESTERN PR BY 2 PM AST. NAM
FORECASTS SHOWERS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OFF SHORE WITH THE
SHEAR-LINE CLOSE BY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OF 50
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND NEAR SHORE AREAS WEST OF
SAN JUAN WHERE THE SHEAR-LINE IS LIKELY TO BE.

&&


.AVIATION...SHEAR LINE NW OF PR BUT ONLY BRIEF MVFR IS EXPECTED DUE
TO SHRA AND WILL PUT MORE CREDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION THAT KEEPS
THE SHEAR LINE OFFSHORE UNTIL AT LEAST 30/14Z. SHRA REACH TNCM AFT
30/08Z BUT DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER TKPK. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY SHEAR LINE.
WINDS ALOFT HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LEAST UP THROUGH 14
KFT...BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS REACHING 11 KFT BY 31/00Z. WIND SPEEDS BELOW 15 KFT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 15 KT EXCEPT GUSTY VICINITY SHRA.

&&


.MARINE...THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL ARE ALMOST 6 FEET AT RINCON.
SINCE SEAS ARE STILL NEAR 9 FEET AT BUOY 41046...WILL CONSIDER NOT
DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR OUR ATLANTIC WATERS.
NEW NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 73 83 / 50 50 30 30
STT 77 84 76 84 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EAST TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AND HOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARLINE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PR...USVI AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO LOW 70S.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AN INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER
THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND
OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTING. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL NOT BE RULED OUT.

TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT SATURDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
CAP COMBINED WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS
WELL AS LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WEST PUERTO RICO CANT BE
RULED OUT EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK
IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SHARP DECREASE TUESDAY AND INTO THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL CAUSE VCSH...AND
BRIEF SHRA AT THE STATIONS ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHERN PR
TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. SHRA MAY REACH TNCM AFT 30/08Z BUT DRIER
AIR REMAINS OVER TKPK. ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TO THE
NNW OF PR ALONG SHEARLINE...AFTERNOON ISOLD TSRA IN OR AROUND
TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ AFTER 30/18Z. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS NEAR
FL-040. SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT TODAY EXCEPT
GUSTY NEAR THE SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARLINE NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING. A NEW PULSE OF
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THRU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 75 / 30 20 20 50
STT 84 76 84 77 / 40 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER SHOWERS ENDED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED UNTIL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM AST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WERE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM.

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REACH FROM TIME TO TIME THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH THEM ON SHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES AND STRENGTHENS THE SUBSIDENCE CAP A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT DURING THE WEEKEND...AGAIN MAINLY ON
THE NORTH COASTAL REGIONS IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AND
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VERY BRIEF
MVFR IN SHRA...AND SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR. WINDS EASTERLY UP TO
12 KNOTS BLO 5 KFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 15 KFT. WINDS AT 38 KFT
WERE MEASURED AT 100 KT FROM THE WEST AT 30/12Z BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS SEAS OF 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 75 83 / 20 50 50 50
STT 76 84 77 84 / 20 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
THOSE SHOWERS ONLY A FEW OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTED ANY LAND AREAS
AND THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL IF ANY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED INDUCED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DURING THE AFTERNOON YOU CAN EXPECT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OCCURS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS. THIS MAY CAUSE THE SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAT THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LIMITING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU
31/17Z...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ/JSJ/IST. AFT 31/17Z...
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PR...THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ/JPS THRU 31/22Z. ENE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ELSEWHERE THE SEAS
WILL BE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET. HOWEVER A PULSE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO START INVADING THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS SWELL WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN
GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET ON SUNDAY AND UP TO 8
FEET ON MONDAY. THE WATERS IN THE NEARSHORE AND LOCAL PASSAGES
WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...STAY TUNED FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 81 73 / 50 50 50 40
STT 84 73 83 75 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY MOVING WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
BIT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...TIGHTENING
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE...WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH MID WEEK. IN GENERAL..IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST
AND TISX UNTIL 31/22Z. AFTER 22Z...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND VERY STRONG ABOVE
20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 81 73 86 / 50 50 40 40
STT 73 83 75 84 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...MOVING TO THE EAST AND PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE US. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. UPPER
RIDGE IS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS WEEK...REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND EASTERN
SECTION OF PR. THE USVI REMAINED FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES. FOR THE MORNING HOURS THE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD
START MOVING INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR SINCE THAT IS THE AREA HIGH HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVING SAID THAT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE TODAY ACROSS SW-PR WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
THEREFORE...NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS WEEK AND THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. SO ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THAT MUCH DUE TO THE LACK
OF MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST GFS MODEL HAS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MONDAY ONWARDS AT 1.35 INCHES OR
LESS...SO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE IN AREAS OF
HIGHEST SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU
01/17Z...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ/JSJ/IST. AFT 01/17Z...
SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PR...THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT JMZ/JPS THRU 01/22Z. NE WINDS OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL INVADE AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO CHOPPY
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE WILL ALSO COVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS WELL AS NEAR-SHORE WATERS STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS DETERIORATING SURF ZONE CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 74 / 20 40 40 20
STT 84 73 83 75 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...MOVING TO THE EAST AND PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE US. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY
INTO MONDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. UPPER
RIDGE IS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS WEEK...REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTED MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. UPPER RIDGE IS DEVELOPING JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS WEEK...REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IN
THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
EASTERN U.S. MID WEEK AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA BY THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME..NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA TONIGHT AND THRU 02/17Z...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST
AND TISX. AFTER 02/17Z...SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 02/22Z. EAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS OF 10-11 FEET AT 12
SECONDS NEAR 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THESE SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO INVADED OUR OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS UP
TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 87 / 40 40 20 20
STT 73 83 75 84 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST MON FEB 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON
TUE THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES AMPLIFIES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AT ALL
LEVELS WED AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE WRN ATLC AS TROUGH OVER ERN
NOAM BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES. THIS PROMOTES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. WINDS ALSO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
ALLOWING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO FORM FOCUSING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE T-STORMS OVER WRN/NW PR. A FRONTAL ZONE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENERGIZED BY A
STRONG 100-KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS
APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS AND A HANDFULL OF
GFES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST STRONG CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE SW ATLC THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE UNSETTLED/STORMY WX PATTERN
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF FEB.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 02/17Z-21Z. EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED
BLO FL100.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41046 LOCATED 464 NM NW OF PUNTA BORINQUEN MEASURED
A 12-FT SWELL AT 13-14 SECS EARLIER. USING SWELL DECAY NOMOGRAMS
YIELD 7-9FT SWELLS ON THE NORTH COAST. THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT WW3
IS PREDICTING FOR LATER TODAY. THIS IS SOLID BOTH HIGH SURF AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS. THE PEAK IN SEAS SHOULD BE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
FIRE RISK. IF NOT BECAUSE OF THE RAINS ON SAT WILL LIKELY HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. MUCH WARMER AND DRYER ON TUE
WITH CRITICAL RH`S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AND REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. MOISTURE
INCREASES MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND WINDS DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 87 74 / 10 10 10 20
STT 83 75 84 74 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST MON FEB 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAINS AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD AND AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE AN STABLE AND A GENERAL
DRY WEATHER REGIME OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TKPK AND TNCM OVERNIGHT AND OVER TJMZ BETWEEN
03/17Z-21Z. EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BLO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC MEASURED A 11-FT SWELL
AT 13-14 SECS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME THE SAN JUAN
BUOY 41053 MEASURED A 8 FT SWELL AT 11 SECS. THE PEAK IN SEAS
SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 85 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 85 74 84 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST TUE FEB 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS POLAR TROUGH BROADENS OVER THE WRN ATLC. LOW
PRES EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT OVR THE WRN ATLC AND
GREATER ANTILLES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THEN STEADILY WEAKENS FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND THE WRN ATLC BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DOMINANT. THIS PROMOTES MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS FURTHER AND SFC WINDS
VEER TO THE SE. ONE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 21N
SUN-MON WITH A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT TUE THE LATTER ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW
PRES OR CUTOFF LOW OVR THE WRN ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TUE FOR SOME
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 03/17Z-21Z. ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KT EXPECTED BLO
5000 FT...SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN SEA BREEZE AFTER 03/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO WEAKEN ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AREA BECOMES UNDER A COL REGION. ISOLD T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFF OF THE NW COAST OF PR WED ON BUT
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL RH`S ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY BUT WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT MAKING RED FLAG CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY.
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AND ESPECIALLY FRI ON AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER WITH FIRE DANGER DECREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 30 30 20 10
STT 85 74 84 74 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST TUE FEB 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAINS AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD AND
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE AN STABLE AND A GENERAL DRY WEATHER REGIME
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVES VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 04/17Z-21Z. ESE WINDS AT 10-15
KT EXPECTED BLO 5000 FT...SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN SEA BREEZE AFTER
04/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN ESPECIALLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AREA BECOMES UNDER A COL REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND
OFF OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONTAL ZONE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 87 / 30 20 10 10
STT 74 85 74 84 / 40 50 50 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST WED FEB 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING
PER CIRA LPW PRODUCT AND GREATER SHOWER CVRG ON RADAR IMAGERY AS
COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS. MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LIFTING/WEAKENING TO 650 MB THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THIS TO RESULT IN SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE T-STORMS OVER WRN PR AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SOME DRYING
EXPECTED THU-THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE-RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. THEN SFC TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS STEADILY FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING FURTHER PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED
PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH CNTRL COAST AS STEERING WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY. SFC WINDS ALSO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR GOOD SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. SRLY FLOW THEN DEEPENS MON-WED AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT OVER THE WRN ATLC LEADING TO INTENSE
WARMING WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVE
WX ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS ON TUE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...-SHRA EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH 04/13Z ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJPS/TJMZ.
AFTER 04/15Z BRIF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/-TSRA AND MTN TOP OBSCD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ESPECIALLY
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WW3 INDICATING A NNW SWELL AFFECTING
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SUN. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERATED OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST THU NIGHT WHERE THE MODELS
INDICATE A GALE EVENT BUT STORM FORCE WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY GIVEN
ARCTIC AIR BLOWING OVER EXCEPTIONALLY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS.
ANTICIPATE WW3 TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THIS SWELL EVENT AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE ALL OF THIS WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 20
STT 84 77 84 77 / 50 50 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED FEB 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. BY MID
AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

IN THE LONG TERM...GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IS TOO
EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH EFFECTS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
FEATURE. IN GENERAL...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANT BE RULE OUT BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ DUE TO SHRA AND MTN TOP OBSCD
THROUGH 04/22Z. ALSO...PASSING -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ. E- NE
SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND STRONGER
WINDS GUST IN/AROUNG SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 10 10 20 20
STT 77 84 77 84 / 50 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST THU FEB 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY FRI
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD AGAIN MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG 850-500 MB RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR ANOTHER
12 HRS OR SO BEFORE IT STARTS WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY FRI INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SHARP DRYING THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH LARGE 800 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C LEADING TO
AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND
VIEQUES. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT INTO TUE
AS BROAD TROUGH AND LOW PRES BECOME DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING
MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUE NIGHT OR WED. MOST OF THE SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE CNTRL CORDILLERA AS
STEERING WINDS BECOME SRLY. POTENTIAL FOR VERY ACTIVE/SEVERE WX TUE-TUE
NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHARP CDFNT IN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND IN AN AREA
OF UNUSUALLY STRONG 500 MB WIND SPEEDS PROGGED TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY XCPT FOR A POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT EVENING
THEN BUILD LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN IN NNW SWELLS. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT WHERE
THE MODELS INDICATE A SOLID GALE EVENT BUT A SHORT DURATION STORM
FORCE WIND EVENT MORE LIKELY GIVEN ARCTIC AIR BLOWING OVER
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. ANTICIPATE WW3 TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THIS SWELL EVENT BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE AS LARGE AS
THE MOST RECENT ONE THIS PAST MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL RH`S EXPECTED TODAY AS DRIER MOVES IN. HOWEVER...
WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE
A STATEMENT LATER THIS MORNING FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY ON
THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 20 20
STT 85 77 85 77 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST THU FEB 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS DIMINISHING FRIDAY
ONWARD. SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE WEST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILED TODAY...
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND E PR. WINDS
WERE EASTERLY WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW PR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE SETTLES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS SW PR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING TOWARD E PR
ON SUNDAY AND OVER NW PR MONDAY. SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP MOISTURE AND UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS WITH ORGANIZED DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR/IN TJBQ...WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSC ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR. FOLLOWED BY PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS...DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS DIMINISHING FRIDAY ONWARD. NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 77 84 77 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI FEB 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A BROAD
AND DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.RIDGE ALOFT
IS TO COMPLETELY ERODE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND PULL FURTHER EAST...AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS
TO MOVE ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS...AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE
AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SO FAR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT BOTH
SUGGESTED ONLY SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AND
SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOCAL FORCING ALONG
THE DAYTIME HEATING...STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR. ELSEWHERE AND INCLUDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

ON SATURDAY AND DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND ...LOOKING FOR
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH DUE TO THE ERODING
RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF THE POLAR TROUGH AND AFOREMENTIONED JET
SEGMENT. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND INCREASING LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS SUGGESTED BY
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS
WELL AS GIVE WAY TO ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. SO FAR MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.50 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HOWEVER...
NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE SHOWER THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED AND
OF SHORT DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06/16Z
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF SHRA IN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. AFTER 06/16Z SCATTERED SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO.
SURFACE WINDS ESE-SE 5 TO 12 KTS.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY TODAY...THEN DECREASING TO 4 FEET OR LESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. A NORTHERLY SWELL IS
SO FAR FORECAST TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
BUT SO FAR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 FEET OR LESS DURING
THAT TIME AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PR..FOR THE ANY ADDITIONAL INFO OR UPDATES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL DUE
TO THE LOOSENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT. LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF TODAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST
INTERIOR. EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT RESULTING IN LITTLE STEERING...SO
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION AND REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 20 30 30 30
STT 84 77 84 77 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2014 climate report for Puerto Rico and the USVI. Overall it was a mainly dry year.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/sju/clim ... Review.pdf