Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
has increased this afternoon, but remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days while it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 09N40W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WAVE A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 31W-40W.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SEE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 77 89 / 20 30 20 20
STT 78 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of
disturbed weather located about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has become a little better organized during the past
few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next several days while the system moves generally westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N34W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 9N39W.
THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A DEEP LAYER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-41W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

From the Weather Channel

http://www.weather.com/news/tropical-up ... n-20140513
Stu Ostro, Michael Lowry, Dr. Greg Postel Published: Jul 28, 2014, 7:25 PM EDT weather.com

- Disturbance in tropical Atlantic trying to develop, with limited success so far

ATLANTIC BASIN

The system which came off Africa a few days ago and has been designated as Invest 93L continues moving across the tropical Atlantic quite far south, with thunderstorms persisting and coalescing. So far the bark on satellite imagery is louder than the bite, as while there is some spin evident, the nature of that and other analyses suggests it doesn't yet have a well-defined enough center of circulation for it to be a tropical depression.

Atmospheric conditions are currently neither very conducive nor very unconducive to development. Upper-level winds are a bit brisk out of the east, though not necessarily prohibitively so; the northeastern part of the tropical wave is feeling some very dry air whereas the rest of the wave is moist.

The system will have a window during the next couple of days where/when it has a chance of further developing, as conditions remain somewhat favorable for that or perhaps become a bit more so than currently; models differ in how much/quickly the Bertha wannabe will respond and spin up.

Farther out in time, at the end of the week when it's near the Lesser Antilles, there are significant differences in model forecasts in regard to how much upper-level wind hostility there'll be, vs. the ability of the system to fend that off.

Any speculation about the longer range beyond that is dependent upon these questions in the short-to-medium range being resolved.

For now, a system for folks in the eastern Caribbean islands to closely monitor for the possibility of effects by the end of the week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TUTT LOW NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY BUT
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR LEFT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 37 WEST...OR AROUND 1000 MILES TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 70 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW
MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE TIME AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. GFS MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT TRACKS
IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND CLOSER TO THE OUR LOCAL AREA.
WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT
IT IS QUITE EARLY TO PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH VCSH AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 29/16-21Z OBSCD MTN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT JSJ.
E-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 77 / 30 20 20 20
STT 88 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

2 AM discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 9N35W. RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-14N BETWEEN 31W-42W. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

Up to 70%/80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is becoming
better defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to gradually organize, and a tropical depression could
form during the next day or so while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
east of the southern Windward Islands continue to become better
organized. This system could develop into a tropical depression
later today or tomorrow while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 9N37W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 36W-40W. RAINBANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 33W-42W. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited. This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OVER FAJARDO AND CEIBA IN THE EAST...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND MOROVIS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER RIO FAJARDO...AND
OVER RIO GUAJATACA. A COOP OBSERVER REPORTED ALSO OVER 2 INCHES AT
PALMAREJO SECTOR IN VEGA BAJA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WIT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE CURRENT OF MOVEMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited. This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
BY THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE THE LOCAL AREA
STAYS UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH SOME BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSEN QUITE A BIT ON
THURSDAY...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ALSO GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EVEN
MORE AND ONCE AGAIN HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WHILE EASTERN
PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED AROUND LONGITUDE 44 WEST
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IT
DOES SEEM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS
THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL
UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JBQ WHERE
A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE 10-15 KT XCPT
WESTERLY AT JMZ AROUND 10 KT. LOW PRES OVR THE CNTRL ATLC LIKELY TO
BECOME TD#3 TONIGHT OR THU AND PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR OR TO THE NE OF THE USVI LATE SAT NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 10 10 20 30
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited. This system continues to show signs of
organization, however, and the low could develop into a tropical
depression later today or tomorrow while it moves generally
west-northwestward near 15 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Breaking News= The Gov of PR announced a short time ago that rationing of water in parts of PR will begin on August 6.The time will be of 24 hours one day then water the next and then 24 hours the next day. Hopefully,93L brings rain to the Islands and PR.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch