Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. REMNANTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THEREFORE...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WHICH WAS LOCATED AROUND 1400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

FOR OUR AREA...STILL EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY FRIDAY. LATEST 22/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MRNG AND AGAIN TONITE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS BLO 10 KFT...BUT MVFR WL BE BRIEF/ISOLD AT
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST PR THIS AFT AND
AGAIN WED AFT WI LCL MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 ESE 12-24
KT BCMG E LATE TUE NITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 92 79 / 40 20 20 10
STT 89 79 91 81 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 20 20 10 10
STT 80 90 80 91 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 49.6W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
SEPARATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
REGION. MEANWHILE....THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH BULGES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 AM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 N...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE LATE TODAY...OR ON THURSDAY
AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES
SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
TRANSPORTING MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...
A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST NAPS AEROSOL SUGGEST SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT
LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME IT
ARRIVES TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 10 30
STT 90 80 90 81 / 30 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

...FAST-MOVING DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 53.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[cycloneye]

TD TWO has dissipated.

REMNANTS OF TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

Visible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened
overnight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep
convection. Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed
surface circlation so this is the last advisory on this system
issued by NHC. The remnants of the depression are expected to move
through the Lesser Antilles this evening with some areas of gusty
winds and showers.

Further information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TWO
12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 90 / 40 50 40 40
STT 81 91 80 91 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER ASCAT
PASSES...AND A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SUGGESTS THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
MPH OR SO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR...AND THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
ALL SUGGESTED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR CROSSING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXPECT
MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL AND STILL SUGGEST
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS AS THE WAVE EXITS
THE REGION AND AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THAT SAID...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH STILL CALLED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
TRAIL THE WAVE TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WILL CREATE ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
WATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SQUALLS LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 50 40 40 30
STT 90 80 88 80 / 50 50 50 30

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated in the butterfly island and should be maintain till tommorow 6AM.

For those who are interrested this twave is crossing Guadeloupe since yesterday night...bringing thunderstorms even isolated ligthnings and showers.

Our local Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe measured between 20 and 40 millimeters at Petit-Bourg (near my locality) and gustywinds up to 63km/h. Waves average of 2m10, with max at 3m70. Thanksfully this feature should bring some water after the severe drought always occuring in most of the EC islands . I will keep your informed if i've more infos from this feature.

Gusty wind

[cycloneye]

The expected rains didn't come and now we have this.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1238 PM AST THU JUL 24 2014

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH COAST...

.STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE CAUSING DRYING
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND PREVENTING THE
USUAL SEA BREEZE. THE EXPECTED SHOWERS WILL NOT DEVELOP FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRZ014-242100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0015.140724T1800Z-140724T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-
1238 PM AST THU JUL 24 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* WINDS: 20-FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): GREATER THAN 775...

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 9 PERCENT

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED DUE THE INTERACTIONS OF THE LOCAL EFFECTS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STAYED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALSO KNOWN AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #2...CONTINUED THE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT THIS MOMENT THE AXIS OF THE
WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO. A
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
TO THE EAST AXIS OF THE WAVE BEGAN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER OR AT LEAST MOVE CLOSE TO THE CABO
ROJO AREA...WESTERN TIP OF PR.

AL THOUGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR PUERTO RICO HAD
BEEN REDUCED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE...THERE IS STILL A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY BUT THEY COULD REGENERATE
OVER WATERS AND AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DECR THIS EVE BUT TJMZ THE ONLY
TAF SITE WI VERY MUCH CHC OF BLO VFR CONDS THIS AFT. SCT SHRA/TSRA
FRI AFT WI ISOLD/SCT SHRA ELSEWHERE WI SLGT CHC MVFR. WINDS BLO
FL150 E-ESE 16-30 KT NOW AND EVEN INTO SAT. XPCT SFC WIND TO DIE
OFF IN EVE AND MAY CAUSE LLWS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IT DECREASES.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS
WINDY AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AC CROSS THE AREA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 20 40 30 30
STT 80 88 80 91 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
12 MPH OR LESS.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TRADE WIND
CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT
WEAKENING OF CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK.

AS REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST. HOWEVER...GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
THEREFORE WITH THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BASED ON WRF AND
GFS GUIDANCE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE THE DRIEST DAYS OVER THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN PR MAY AFFECT MAINLY TJMZ BUT ALSO THE VICINITY OF TJBQ. IN
ADDITION...TJSJ MAY OBSERVE VCSH/VCTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS MAY OBSERVED PASSING SHRA
THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY CAUSING VCSH. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM 25/13Z
TO AROUND 25/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS MORNING...LOCALLY CHOPPY SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 79 / 30 20 30 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THE INCREASE ON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THESE AREA LIMITED
THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS LOCAL EFFECT DID NOT FULLY DEVELOPED.

AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERS TOMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY AFFECTING THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN SEBASTIAN...MOCA AND AGUADA. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND OR BEFORE
SUNSET. TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.


TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TRADE WIND
CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT
WEAKENING OF CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 25/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS GENERATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS THROUGH THE
INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 79 89 / 20 30 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH TRADE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION...SYSTEM
IS NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...LATEST GFS AND
WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THEREFORE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN PR MAY AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS MAY OBSERVE PASSING -SHRA/VCSH THROUGH THE DAY. SFC
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM 26/13Z TO AROUND 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A QUIET WEATHER MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET. A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL REGION GENERATING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS O PUERTO RICO WITHOUT GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

TUTT PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OUR LOCAL REGION...WITH A CLOSED
LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN
A BETTER LOCATION FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN PR WILL IMPACT TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 26/22Z...SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH SOME VCSH. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME ISOLD GUSTS INTO THE EVE HRS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS GENERATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SUNDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME THE SEAS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW.

TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION...SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A DENT ON
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...WEAKENING OF
TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF PW...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THEREFORE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITHOUT A CAP AT MID LEVELS AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PW VALUES...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS FROM
27/13Z TO AROUND 28/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO SIX FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND WINDS SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA..THEY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THEY WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

RIDGE NORTH OF ISLANDS DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITATELY WATER REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WI MVFR UNLIKELY AT ANY TAF SITE
THRU MON. BUT FEW OBSCD MTNS DURING BOTH AFT OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
PR. LOW LEVEL WIND E 12-20 KT XCP NE FL100-FL200...WEAKENING TO 6-13
KT ON MON.


&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX ALSO THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 20 30
STT 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We have to watch the progress of Tropical Wave that has been designated as Invest 93L that may affect the NE Caribbean.Stay tuned for information that will be posted here for the Caribbean Members and you also can visit the Invest 93L thread.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT TODAY...IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT...MAY CAUSE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SHOULD
REMAIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARM WITH HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE
SAHARAN DUST THAT IS PRESENT. ACCORDING TO THE NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL...THE SAHARAN DUST WILL EXIT OUR AREA THIS EVENING...GIVING
US A BREAK FROM THE DUST TOMORROW TUESDAY.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE USVI.

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

[Gustywind]

Are things are heating up in the tropics? Hey islanders let's have fun because of weather is wonderfull in the Lesser Antilles ; but keep a small eye on that for the weekend... in case of?

From the Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/news/tropical-up ... n-20140513


ATLANTIC BASIN

Thunderstorms have increased near a tropical disturbance moving westward across the eastern Atlantic. The area of unsettled weather is embedded within a line of converging air (see animation above), with winds coming together to not only produce showers but also a natural area of spin for a low pressure system to form. The spin to the air is limited right now which is some good news in the short term.

The complication comes in a few days when the disturbance hits a more favorable atmosphere. Some of our weather models like the American GFS show a robust tropical storm approaching the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week. Meanwhile, the highly touted European weather model is less enthusiastic, forecasting little if any development.

In this instance a much stronger case can be made for development than against it. The disturbance is a low-running wormburner, so it'll likely stay south of the dry and dusty Saharan air that would otherwise work against development. This also means it'll remain within that region of converging air, which will continue to nourish thunderstorm growth and spin. By mid-week, upper winds are expected to relax noticeably, which will provide further support for organization. (Also worth noting that more recent runs of the European model using different starting conditions do show some development potential when compared to previous runs.)

Bottom line: odds are tilted in favor of tropical development in the upcoming days. It's too early to say how strong a developing system might get but the Lesser Antilles, Leeward Islands, and even Puerto Rico could be impacted by this system by late week into the weekend. Stay tuned.