Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING
ITS MOST NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN RETURNING TO NORTHWEST.
A 1098 DM RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA THE FIRST
SATURDAY OF MAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY
SHIFTS FOCUS TO THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM NEAR ZERO UNTIL MONDAY
BUT DOES NOT EXCEED 50 PERCENT AT ANY TIME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO BELOW 20 PERCENT BY NEXT THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. FLOW IS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BRINGING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN FAJARDO AND
CULEBRA AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND ALTHOUGH A FEW WERE SEEN NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN
NONE WERE SEEN OVER LAND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA TO SET UP SHOWERS OVER MUCH THE SAME AREAS OF THE NORTH COAST
AND COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AS THURSDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY BUT OVER ONE INCH COULD BE SEEN IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. MOST AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO RAIN AGAIN
TODAY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. THEN MOISTURE DIMINISHES AGAIN. THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 850 MB WINDS
RANGING FROM 150 TO 200 DEGREES THROUGH 02 MAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AND MAY EXCEED 20 KNOTS BY THEN.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER AIR NEXT
WEEK...BUT 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY
RETURN TO PRESENT LEVELS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL STILL
PUT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN THE GREATER SAN JUAN
AREA AND LOCALLY IN ARECIBO. MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SOME
TEMPERATURES FROM 92 TO 94 DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS. BUT MOST AREAS
IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW SHRA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FLYING AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFTER 23/17Z DUE TO LOCALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AFT 24/12Z BCMG SE TO
S AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN SLOWLY INCREASE UNTIL THEY REACH 6 FEET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF OUR
FORECAST ZONE. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN USUAL IN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENTLY THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
GRADIENTS ARE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. NEVERTHELESS FIRE
DANGER WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 30 0 20 20
STT 85 77 85 78 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SOME ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO
FAR.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UNDER A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY...
IF ANY...WILL BE SHALLOW AND FOCUSED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
AS A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS. TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID
90S. DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF JBQ THRU 22Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND
AGAIN ON SAT MAINLY AT JBQ. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
BECOMIMG MORE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE UNTIL THEY REACH 6 FEET THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF
OUR FORECAST ZONE. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN USUAL IN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 90 78 91 / 0 20 0 0
STT 77 85 78 86 / 20 20 20 20

[wyq614]

Here in Havana it's really hot! According to Cuba's INSMET, during 19-21 April the maximum temperature in Havana exceeded consecutively 35.5 degrees centigrade, which has never happened since the foundation of meteorological station in Casablanca in 1909. Moreover, on 23 April the maximum temperature in Casablanca, Havana reached 36.0 degrees centigrade, which equals the historical record of the maximum temperature in April.

[cycloneye]

Here in Havana it's really hot! According to Cuba's INSMET, during 19-21 April the maximum temperature in Havana exceeded consecutively 35.5 degrees centigrade, which has never happened since the foundation of meteorological station in Casablanca in 1909. Moreover, on 23 April the maximum temperature in Casablanca, Havana reached 36.0 degrees centigrade, which equals the historical record of the maximum temperature in April.

Welcome to the thread for weather in Caribbean and Central America and good to have weather reports from Cuba.Keep them coming.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL HOLD OVER THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
UNTIL THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A SURFACE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS A
RESULT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED WITH THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR...MOST OF IT WAS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THEREFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO OF
PUERTO RICO AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE GREATER PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS CAN MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WINDWARD SECTIONS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN...UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER
TUESDAY...AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WILL BE
SHALLOW AND OF SHORT DURATION. IN ADDITION...WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS
THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST HIGHER THAN NORMAL 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL 925 MB TEMPERATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO CIGS AND ALSO
AT TJBQ IN SHRA BTWN 25/18 AND 26/00Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO DURG SAME PERIOD. WINDS
ALF GENLY SE 5 TO 15 KT BCMG BY FL100 W 10 TO 15 KT UP TO FL250.
SFC WINDS AFT 25/14Z WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES IN SE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT STILL POSE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON THE EXPOSED ATLANTIC BEACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 91 79 / 20 0 10 0
STT 86 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAKLY INDUCED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHIFTING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS/LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FAIRLY DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ABNORMALLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
IN SOME AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE PRESENT
AND EXPECTED DRY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY REACH PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED
BY LIMITED SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MTN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPED OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 80 93 / 0 10 0 20
STT 78 86 79 86 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STALL OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT LEAST UNTIL
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME
BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED INLAND ACROSS EASTERN PR...ST
CROIX...ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...HOWEVER NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
WAS DETECTED. THEREFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE GREATER PART OF THE MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. CLOUDINESS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI AND NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE INTERIOR OVER PUERTO RICO. LIKE
YESTERDAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FAIR AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN...UNDER A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A RESULT...SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WILL BE SHALLOW AND OF SHORT DURATION. IN
ADDITION...ABNORMALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST HIGHER THAN
NORMAL 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WITH A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. AFTER 26/17Z SCT SHRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLD MVFR
CONDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AND ARND TIST. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 26/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO FADE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC TODAY. MARINERS CAN EXPECT...A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 79 92 78 / 10 0 20 0
STT 87 79 87 79 / 20 10 10 20

[msbee]

Hurricane hunter visits our sister island Statia (St Eustatius)

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/statia.shtml

[cycloneye]

New record high temperature in San Juan.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN IT HOLD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
LEAST UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...
RECEDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN SOME AREAS ALONG
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OR DETECTED SO FAR BY THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. THE DOMINANT WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT QUICKLY SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER ALLOWED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BEING SET AT
THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS OVERALL HOT AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. A BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWER MAY MOVE INLAND ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS BUT ALL IN ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED OVER LAND.

ON MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. BASED
ON LATED MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR WEATHER
FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOSTLY
FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED.
SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL AROUND 26/22Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THEREAFTER. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
AROUND 10-15KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 27/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 78 95 / 0 20 0 20
STT 79 87 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

[wyq614]

New Record High for Havana, Holguin

Today at 15:25, it was 37.0 degrees C. for the Casablanca Meteorological Station in Havana, new record high for the capital city of Cuba, the max temperature of Holguin today was 38.7, breaking all-time record high and was only 0.1 degree lower than Cuba's national high temperature record.

Havana's max temperature was 34.7 the day before yesterday and 35.7 yesterday.

As the barometer hardly reaches 1012hPa here in Havana today, I believe the subtropical ridge seems to be rather weak, but why the temperature so high and there has been several days without a drop of rain? Could someone give me an answer?

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More very warm days are ahead and also dry conditions will dominate the weather in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. NEAR OR RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

IN ADDITION...LATEST AEROSOL MODEL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN AREA OF
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WARM AND UNCOMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU AT LEAST TUE AS HOT/DRY AIR STREAMS FROM SE.
ISOLD SHRA (AT MOST) WL BE HI BASED AND TOO LGT TO CAUSE MUCH
REDUCED VSBY OR CIG. WIND BLO FL100 S TO SW 5-16 KT THRU TUE.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 93 80 / 20 0 20 10
STT 87 80 87 79 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Another day that breaks the old record high temperature in San Juan as it reached 94F.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
FOR MUCH OF PUERTO RICO WHILE THE USVI REMAINS NOT QUITE AS HOT.
HIGH PRESSURES AT THE LOW...MID...AND UPPER LEVELS DOMINATING THE
LOCAL REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURES IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL KEEP A STABLE ATMOSPHERE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A HOT DAY TODAY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO
RICO...IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET
IN 2010. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ONLY
1.22 INCHES WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND NO RAIN WAS OBSERVED DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

INTERESTING WIND FLOW PATTERN WAS OBSERVED TODAY WHEN THE WIND
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ENCOUNTERED MAINLAND PUERTO RICO THEN
BECAUSE OF THE LOCAL TERRAIN...A SHADOW OF WIND IS OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PR...WHILE THE GENERAL WIND FLOW
THEN CAUSES AN EDDY AND LOOPS BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO ARECIBO
TO AGUADILLA...GIVING THEM A NORTHERLY WIND AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER TEMPS THAN THE SAN JUAN METRO. THE SEA BREEZE DID NOT
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN AREA.

THIS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEK. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. SO WE DO EXPECT NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE ON THE
WARM SIDE...CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ALSO...LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS CONTINUED DRY AIR IS
MOVING IN. IN FACT...NAAPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SOME SAHARAN DUST
IS MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL VERY LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS DURG ENTIRE PRD. LIGHT SRLY WIND FLOW BLO
FL100 BCM FM N AND INCR W/HT TO MAX WND 25-30 KTS NR FL450. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM. FEW FAIR WX CU EN ROUTE BTW ISLAND FM
ERN PR TO NRN LEEWARDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SAHARAN
AIR LAYER W/SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES NOW SPREADING NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR
LESS AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS NEAR THE COASTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 94 80 94 / 0 20 10 10
STT 81 88 79 88 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another day with warm and dry conditions is expected today in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands. The Saharan dust will also be in the Eastern Caribbean to cause even more dry conditions.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. VERY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES DOMINATING THE LOCAL
REGION. LATEST 28/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUES OF 1.34
INCHES. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST FOR PWAT VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND
0.90 INCHES BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST COMING FROM THE EAST. THEREFORE...NO MUCH CHANGES IN THE DRY
AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN IN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR THRU AT LEAST WED WI ISOLD OR FEWER SHRA. WIND
BLO FL100 S TO SE 12-21 KT INCR 15-25 KT LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 94 80 94 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 88 80 87 79 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Uff,No relief from the very warm and dry conditions for the next 7 days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRI THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HAZY...HOT WX TO PERSIST
THU SAT WITH SOME RELIEF EXPECTED SUN INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A MIGHTY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SO IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...CHANCES LOOK VERY DISMAL OR BASICALLY NONE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SO WHEN WILL THERE BE A SIGNIFICANT RELIEF
TO THE HEAT? MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH SAT WITH A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION SUN AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE THU-FRI WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING SAT AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES BY MID WEEK. 1000, 925 AND 850 MB DO NOT DROP APPRECIABLY
UNTIL SUN. SO A GOOD BET THAT THE HOT WX WILL LAST THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THRU THE ENTIRE PRD. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. FEW FAIR WX CU EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS BLO 030.
SOME HZ ALOFT AS LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SPREADS NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WND FM SE AT 10-15 MPH OCNL GUST UP TO 20KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAZY AND HOT THROUGH SAT. MIGHTY SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS INHIBITING VERTICAL MIXING SO STAGNATION IS LIKELY
WITH ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS
DROP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 94 80 94 / 0 0 10 10
STT 80 87 79 88 / 0 0 10 10

[wyq614]

It seems that Havana will get rid of this very soon. Today the southerly winds is very strong here! A cold front is expected to enter Cuba tomorrow with hard rain.

Everybody here is very interested about what will be the weather like during May 1st Parade (friday morning) here in Havana, what do you guys think?

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The hot and dry/haze conditions will prevail thru at least next Saturday with some relief by Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HAZY...HOT WEATHER TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME RELIEF EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. VERY
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. UNDER A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE...WITH A
DENSE SAHARAN DUST AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION. ALSO...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AT RECORD LEVELS.

SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL DRY
AND HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT BOTH DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RELIEF IN THE HOT
TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR THRU AT LEAST THU. ISOLD OR NO SHRA. WIND BLO
FL100 S TO SE 12-21 KT INCR 14-28 KT TONITE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND LOCAL PASSAGES. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPETED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 95 79 94 79 / 0 10 10 10
STT 87 79 87 79 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Bad news is the hot and dry conditions will continue at least thru Saturday but the good news is some relief from the hot and dry conditions in Puerto Rico and the islands of the Eastern Caribbean is coming by Sunday into early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT THE HOT...
DRY AND HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME RELIEF IN THESE SOMEWHAT ABNORMAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION THE
PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DRYING
CONDITIONS AND SMOTHER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN
LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND DOMINANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO A SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...FROM ARECIBO EASTWARDS TO THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WHERE
RECORD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE EITHER TIED OR BEEN BROKEN
IN RECENT DAYS.

THE PERSISTENT DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY P6SM
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. WINDS FM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
10-27 KT BLO FL100...20-27 KTS BETWEEN 2-6 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS BETWEEN 1 TO 5 FEET AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S OVER THE
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCLUDING THE MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 94 79 93 / 0 0 0 10
STT 79 87 79 86 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry and very warm weather will continue in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands thru Saturday.A relief is coming by Sunday as the winds change from the east and moisture increases a little bit.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL REGION.
LATEST PWAT VALUES IN THE LATEST 30/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING WERE AN
IMPRESSIVE 0.81 INCHES. IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NORMAL LEVELS WHICH IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFT N WIND DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
LAST FOUR DAYS.

STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MID YO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY WE WILL SEE SAL
DIMINISHING GRADUALLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR THRU AT LEAST FRI AND NO SHRA. WIND BLO FL100
MAINLY SSE 14-28 KT BCMG SE TONITE-FRI 12-24 KT TONITE-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS...SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP
TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND HOT TEPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 94 78 / 0 0 10 10
STT 87 79 86 78 / 0 10 10 10

[wyq614]

Good morning from Havana. Yesterday the whole city was flooded due to having been hit by a prefrontal squall line that caused 187 millimetres of rain in 3 hours, wind gust of 98 km/h was registered. In the districts mainly east of Havana Bay, strong hailstorm took place and caused severe damage.

2 people were killed during the storm, including a 77-year-old woman for being drowned in the flood and a 23-year-old young man, who was electrocuted by a fallen wire in the water.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
LOCAL AREA AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
EAST NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH CAUSING IT
TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MID LEVELS
REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC CARRIES A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
LOCAL AREA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS RIDGE WILL JOIN WITH ANOTHER
HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY IN CURRENT
FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN MANY PLACES. TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST
WERE QUITE WARM WITH SAN JUAN AGAIN TYING THE RECORD FOR THE DAY
WITH 94 DEGREES SET JUST BEFORE 2 PM AST. A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AT 850 MB RISE FROM 15 PERCENT TO 45 PERCENT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONLY MINOR CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER ARE BEING CARRIED
FOR NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH CHANCES NEGLIGEABLE FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FOR WINDWARD SLOPES
IN THE MORNINGS AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS OF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE THEN DIMINISHES ON MONDAY WITH VERY
DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

AT PRESENT MODELS HINT OF BETTER MOISTURE ON THE LAST DAY OF THE
RUN...SUNDAY 10 MAY...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO CONFIRM.

SAHARAN DUST WILL ALMOST DISAPPEAR ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
LOWER 90S EACH DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE GREATER SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS FM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-25 KT BLO
FL200...20-25 KTS BETWEEN 2-6 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE GENERALLY SUBDUED AND LESS THAN 4 FEET IN THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...SEAS INCREASE FROM ONLY ABOUT 1 FOOT NEAR PUERTO
RICO`S NORTH COAST TO OVER 6 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY ABOUT 187
MILES NORTH. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS MOST
AREAS...MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS THAT
COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 94 78 90 / 0 0 0 10
STT 79 86 78 86 / 0 0 10 10