Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N54W...IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALSO ATTACHED TO THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards islands for a risk of showers and tstorms.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 78 / 40 60 90 80
STT 89 79 88 79 / 40 60 90 80

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could
limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the
Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-211900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.140822T0600Z-140823T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
935 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA AND FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
THEREFORE...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS ASSOCIATED DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4
TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about
275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined
today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or
so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the
first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is
forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and
Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

Updated for reconnaissance information

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined. In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Blake

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 275 MILES OF
GUADELOUPE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM
LATE TONIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AS TROPICAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...IS A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 275
MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITOR ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE THEIR FAMILY PLAN
READY...MAINLY PEOPLE LIVING NEAR CREEKS...SMALL STREAM AND
RIVERS. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST LOCAL UPDATED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 22/00. AFTER THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS USVI
AND PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. E-NE WINDS AT 15-30 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
FRIDAY...THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. REFER TO LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT (FFASJU) FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 88 / 60 90 80 80
STT 79 88 79 87 / 60 90 80 80

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization
during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the
system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser
Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit
development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the
system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday
and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system again tomorrow afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF PR TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES SOUTH OF ST. CROIX REMAIN DISORGANIZED. AN ASCAT PASS AT
0157Z DID NOT LONGER SHOW WINDS OF 35 KT AND LATEST INITIALIZATION
FROM NHC HAS DROPPED WINDS TO 30 KT. SO IT IS BECOMING QUITE LIKELY
THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AS WE ALL KNOW HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATEST BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT SHOWS A VERY DEEP MOISTURE PLUME PRESENT OVR THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES OR AT THE 99TH
PERCENTILE USING A PWAT CLIMO SINCE 1950. AS LOW PRES MOVES SOUTH
OF PR AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15Z EXPECT VERY
INTENSE RAINFALL TO MOVE OVR PR. PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 11 AM TO 5 PM TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER SRN PR AND THE ERN THIRD OF PR WHERE BEST
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED. IN THESE AREAS RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD EXCEED 10 INCHES. AFTER 00Z SAT...BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH RAINFALL
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THE SOUTH COAST. AFTER 12Z
SAT...LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLC NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMROVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A RISK OF SOME SHOWERS.
MUCH DRIER WX EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TSRA THROUGH
THE AREA AND LOW CIGS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E-NE...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR TSRA AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES.
ALSO...CIGS BELOW FL020 AND HEAVY RAIN SHALL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. PREVAILING MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CONDS LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT ESPECIALLY OVER ATLC
WATERS WHERE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY`S EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS TO BE
A LONGER DURATION EVENT THAN DURING TS BERTHA AND MOISTURE PLUME
IS ALSO DEEPER WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS TIME
AROUND OVER ERN THIRD AND SRN PR WHERE RIVERS TEND TO RESPOND A
LOT QUICKER. ALSO...SOIL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THIS
TIME AROUND THAN DURING BERTHA MEANING THAT GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO
ABSORB LESS WATER AND MORE WATER WILL TURN INTO RUNOFF WHICH
INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE FLOODING. RELUCTANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE FCST DUE TO
THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM BUT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR SRN AND ERN PR WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 INCHES WHEN THE RAIN IS
DONE SAT MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 80 85 77 / 100 80 80 30
STT 82 81 82 79 / 100 80 80 40

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 200 NM MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N62W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN W FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 PM AST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEVERAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
ADVISORIES AND FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. VERY
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOME MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES. ALSO...NEAR 3 INCHES HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOILS SATURATED.

THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...WILL
AFFECT THE REGION...AS SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL REGION...AGGRAVATING THE FLOOD
SITUATION.

A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
TSRA THROUGH THE AREA AND LOW CIGS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TSRA. ALSO...CIGS
BELOW FL020 AND HEAVY RAIN SHALL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...3 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. REFER TO LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS FROM
LATEST UPDATED INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 85 77 87 / 80 80 30 30
STT 81 82 79 86 / 80 80 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 AM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LONG FETCH SERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A DRYING TREND COMMENCING ON MONDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN
VERY HIGH H85 THETA-E AIR OVR PR TODAY WITH STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINS YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS REASON WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 21Z TODAY. ALTHOUGH
VERY MOIST AIR LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY...,LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A SIG DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. ANY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY SHOULD BE LOCALIZED
AND DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH ANY FURTHER THAN
21Z.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN STEER A TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE ERN CARIB SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH SHARP DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THU AS STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE MOVING THRU THE ERN CARIB THU WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
FLAT AND SUPPRESSED WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY ONE 23/00Z GEFS MEMBER
OUT OF 20 SHOWS TC DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE WHILE NONE OF THE
22/12Z ECWMF MEMBERS SHOWS DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT JPS...JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS. AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT
BUT THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN BUT WITH VFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...NMRS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TODAY ALL WATERS XCPT ANEGADA
PASSAGE. HEAVY RAINS...FREQ LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT MAY
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RISK OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z TODAY AS
BANDS OF +SHRA MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. SRN COAST AND THE ERN HALF OF PR
WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING WITH NORTHWEST PR HAVING THE
LEAST RISK. ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 78 / 70 30 30 30
STT 85 78 88 79 / 70 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINGING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PUERTO RICO...WITH SEVERAL URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AND EVEN FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS. RAINFALL BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN SOME
AREAS. SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AND CONTINUE TO
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SAME AREAS. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON
THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL
CONTINUES TO INDICATE PW VALUES OF AROUND 2.2 LINGERING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WHICH WAS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISE IF IS EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME...AS SOILS CONTINUE SATURATED AND RIVERS AT HIGH
LEVELS. HOWEVER...WAS CANCELED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY....WITH A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...NRMS SHRA/TSRA CONT ALL PR THIS AFT SPCLLY TJPS/TJSJ WI
MVFR/OCNL IFR AND WDSPRD OBSCD MTNS. SHRA/TSRA DECR TO ISOLD/SCT
OVERNIGHT AND CONT SUNDAY AND DECR MVFR/IFR COND. WIND BLO FL100 SSE
20-35 KT BCMG SE 12-20 KT TONITE AND 10-15 KT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY FOR ALL PUERTO RICO.
REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM WFO SAN JUAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 89 / 30 30 30 20
STT 78 88 79 90 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF GUADELOUPE WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY TONIGHT PROMOTING SHARP AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND STRONGER WAVE THU AND THIRD WAVE NEXT SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. DENSE
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND BEST FORCING
HAS NOW SHIFTED OVR ATLC WATERS NORTH OF 19N. BELIEVE WILL SEE SIG
IMPROVEMENT IN WX CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS
WHERE SUN CAN SHINE. SHARP AND VERY SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MON AS TUTT EAST OF GUADELOUPE MOVES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS. SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 34W HAS A BIT MORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GFS
KEEPS THIS WAVE FAR SOUTH WITH NO EFFECTS OVER OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SHOW SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE BUT NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE
CANADIAN SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE
JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SUN OR MON OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
REALLY LIKE THIS WAVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE STRONG SUPPORT
FROM A LOT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEAN.


&&

.AVIATION...DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BUT WITH VFR CIGS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT OVER USVI WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER JPS...JSJ AND JBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER ATLC
WATERS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ON RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AT
ARECIBO IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. RIVER COULD APPROACH THE 17 FT
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT UTUADO AND ADJUNTAS.

MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT MANATI RIVER AT MANATI. MANATI
RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS NOW FALLING BUT STILL REMAINS AT 33 FT
WELL ABOVE THE 25 FT FLOOD STAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 89 78 / 40 10 20 20
STT 81 79 81 80 / 30 0 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FINALLY...AFTER TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...A
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON WEATHER CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
DRY AIR BEHIND WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL...WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS
PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 92F AT 141 PM AST.

DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. AT THE END OF THE WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA TONIGHT. TJSJ 24/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...NORTHEASTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO
WAS CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 79 81 80 82 / 0 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVR THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CARIB TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ON TUE WITH ANOTHER
TUTT EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY ON TUE WHEN MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
REACHING MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUE BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS OR
SHOWERS TO BRING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WX. STILL HOT ON WED DESPITE
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE BASIN.

MAINLY FAIR WX WED-FRI AS SUBSIDENT SIDE OF NEXT TUTT MOVES IN.
TEMPS COOLING DOWN SOME THU-FRI ESPECIALLY FRI. NEXT WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 38W HAS A WEAK LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. NHC GIVING IT
20% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT IT HAS
HARDLY ANY SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM EITHER THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS...ECMWF OR THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONLY THE
UNREALIABLE CANADIAN AND NAVGEM MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE COULD
STILL BE A SIG RAINFALL PRODUCER AS MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS EVERYWHERE TO
INDICATE BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SE FLOW WL CONT OVR LCL ISLANDS MOST OF THIS WEEK...
TIL TS CRISTOBAL MOV FARTHER N. MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY
CAUSING ISOLD MVFR AND FEW OBSCD MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLO FL100 SE
14-26 KT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHENING THROUGH WED AS TS CRISTOBAL MOVES
NORTH AND BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SHIFTS WWD. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. WINDS DIMINISH THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES UNLESS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO A TC WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 81 / 20 0 20 20
STT 82 81 82 82 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart