Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Video of very strong winds in St Barts as the eyewall moved thru.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0WGYyC ... e=youtu.be

[msbee]

before and after pictures of Orient beach on the French side of St Martin. sad...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

[abajan]

Some good news:
No fatalities in St. Barts and St. Martin, French side. All missing mariners (16) have been retrieved or rescued.

Source: http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Some good news:
No fatalities in St. Barts and St. Martin, French side. All missing mariners (16) have been retrieved or rescued.

Source: http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

I'm so happy to hear that nobody has been injured

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REGION. ALTHOUGH...A TUTT LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TROUGH EARLY WEEK
MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PR/USVI REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HURRICANE GONZALO
MOVES FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT HAVE MAINTAINED A FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS SINCE YESTERDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS PR AND USVI
MOST OF THE DAY. THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AROUND 5 PM. MODELS AGREE ON FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL TRAP THE MOISTURE
AT LOW LEVELS...LIMITING THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PR
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF MESO-SYNOPTIC FORCING...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 4-5 FT GENERATED BY
GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING NORTH FACING COASTS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THEN...A LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS OF
4-6 FEET WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 77 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 10 10

[chrisjslucia]

Interesting web site link below. Credit goes to Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School. He has loops from radar in various locations of a range of storms and hurricanes going back a number of years (Atlantic and Pacific) up to and including our current friend Gonzalo as it passed through the Leewards as tracked by the radar in Martinique. I found it interesting to watch Tomas captured by the same radar station four years ago.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL ROTATE OVER PUERTO RICO SUNDAY FROM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF THE UP COMING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER AND AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY TO VERY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA FORMING A
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND TRADE WIND
FLOW INCREASES DURING THE WEEK. THIS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS LINGERED OVER A FEW AREAS IN PUERTO RICO
UNTIL ALMOST MIDNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER LOCAL
WATERS AND FLOWED IN AN ANTICYCLONIC FASHION AROUND A HIGH OVER
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
SOUNDING FORECAST WINDS OVER SAN JUAN 7 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 25
KFT WITH CALM WINDS FORECAST FROM 5 TO 12 KFT. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS A LAYER FROM 5 TO 10 KFT WITH LESS THAN CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY THAT WILL DELAY MOST SHOWER FORMATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY
AS THE LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE DIMINISHES FROM 1.9
INCHES THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON SATURDAY OFF-SETTING
THIS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AT UPPER LEVELS WILL
COMBINE WITH BETTER PRECIPITABLE WATER TO GENERATE A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE SPIKES ON TUESDAY
AND SHOWER CHANCES ALSO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO. SHOWERS WILL ALSO GENERALLY INCREASE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AFTER SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD RAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 17/16-23Z SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR CREATING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES
FORMING AFTER 17/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE SENDING SWELL INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CONNECTING PASSAGES...BUT THESE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEK EVEN AS THE PERIOD LENGTHENS
TO AS MUCH AS 14 SECONDS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 20 30
STT 88 78 87 79 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT SOUTH OF THE DOM REP WILL SHIFT EAST NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS PR SUN NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUN LEADING
TO GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAINLY OVER
WRN PR AS TRADES RETURN TO THE AREA. MUCH DRYER NEXT WEEK UNDER
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS TUTT
SHIFTS WELL SOUTH INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT JMZ FOR THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 0 0 10 20
STT 78 87 79 87 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND BETWEEN
HURRICANE GONZALO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EAST OF WASHINGTON DC AND THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS
FORMED BUT HAD NOT YET PENETRATED ONSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. VERY FEW
SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AGAIN FORECAST SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST...HAVE SHIFTED THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER FORMATION BACK TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
TO ALSO FORM IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PERCENTAGE OF
SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING. SEA BREEZES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE
FLOW TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
COOLER...MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES FORMING AFTER 18/14Z. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 18/18-23Z
CREATING MTN TOP OBSCURATION WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT
TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THEN...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL ALSO ALLOW
SEAS TO REMAIN TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 78 / 10 20 20 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 88 / 10 10 0 10
STT 77 88 79 87 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 10 20 20 30
STT 89 79 88 77 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 0 10 0 10
STT 79 88 77 87 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 30 30 30 30
STT 89 78 87 77 / 40 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS PR TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WED THROUGH SAT THEN
WEAKEN AS TUTT EVOLVES OVR THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF 50W WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH SAT
WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 89 / 20 20 0 10
STT 78 87 77 88 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA THAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DISPLACE
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AFTER A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
CUT-OFF LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST
LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY. EAST
SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURES DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY ABIDES AGAIN TODAY
WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MOVING IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A SMATTERING OF SMALL SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO HUNDREDTHS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN OVER THE AREA TODAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED INDICES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...TO INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE NOTED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL REDUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDED
SUNSHINE AND THE SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS.

THEN...ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL
RETURN IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER DAYS WILL
BEGIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AFTER
A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 21/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. VCSH PSBL AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST TIL EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 21/17-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS... IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY DIMINISHING SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 77 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 79 88 79 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
SLOWLY RETROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST AND WEST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES NOW
RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70 INCHES. HOWEVER....STILL SUFFICIENT
POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOWEVER DIMINISH BY SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND HELP TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE FORECAST TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO THE REGION WILL
BE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A TUTT WHICH WILL RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...PRESENT SCENARIO
SUGGEST THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT IS TO SUPPRESS
ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TJSJ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 3 TO 4 FEET NORTHERLY
SWELL AT 11-14 SECONDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE SWELL ACTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 14 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 88 / 30 30 10 20
STT 77 89 79 88 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH
ALOFT EAST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGHINESS ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS ENHANCED THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS. GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THAT THE
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE
WILL INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ALLOWING THE GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SHALLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO ENTER
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT INDUCED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN GENERAL...
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 92 77 / 20 10 20 40
STT 88 78 89 79 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE BUILDING RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROUGH
IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A TUTT LOW FORMS
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 56W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...MILD SUBSIDENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT HAS SO FAR AIDED IN SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EXPECT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND SLOT OF DRIER AIR TO BE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST RETURN OF EASTERLY
TRADES WITH TYPICAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING PWAT VALUES AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. UNTIL THEN...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 22/23Z. SFC WINDS PREVAILING
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 22/23Z...WINDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 90 76 88 / 10 20 40 40
STT 77 89 78 88 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF VIEQUES ISLAND...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES.
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAP AT LOW LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION...IF ANY. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI. IN
ADDITION...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THE IMPACT OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PR/USVI THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO LIKELY LIMIT TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCTS NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 76 / 20 40 40 0
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...THE
POSITIONING OF THE TUTT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS WORKING
TO INDUCE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SUBSIDENT
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WELL. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...POSSIBLY CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET IN THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. THEN ONE STREAMER DEVELOPED OFF SAINT CROIX
WHILE CLOUDINESS INCREASED A BIT OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED...HAVING SAID THAT...WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.7
INCHES...UP FROM 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE REGULAR PATTERN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN BY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS A
BIT FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE...THE LOCAL AREA MAY RECEIVE
SOME GOOD RAIN THOSE DAYS IF THE MODELS VERIFY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS W-NW PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS STILL PSBL OVR WRN PR NR TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 23/22. CU LINES
MAY DEVELOP OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND STREAM
FURTHER W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS. EARLIER TJSJ 23/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED WND 10-15 KTS
BLO FL150...BECOMING FM NNE AND INCR W/HT ABV FL200.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF A SMALL
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 90 / 40 40 0 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 40 40 30 30